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High Probability Insight: Day-Trade Daily Momentum on M1/M5TF

  • #241
  • Sep 28, 2015 10:43pm Sep 28, 2015 10:43pm
Quoting Uniubi
Cool Jay, now i can see more easily on those lines. i will have clear look and try understand later. Thanks mate!
You are welcome!

You have plenty of time to learn those things... Just take it one step at a time mate.

Jay
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #242
  • Sep 28, 2015 10:51pm Sep 28, 2015 10:51pm
AUD/USD Short Trade Update:

I had to redeem myself on that trade... If I have done my Analysis on Higher Timeframe, I would have known that this pair wanted to go Down the whole time, but the Momentum changed on me while I was long and didn't want to close that first Trade... During the New York Session, I have found a Nice Short Entry, and I took advantage of it....

This is the result from a chart perspective.... Haha! My Trade Explorer showed the information already.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 143 KB
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #243
  • Sep 28, 2015 11:14pm Sep 28, 2015 11:14pm
Strength Scale Update:
Tuesday, September 29th @ 1:13am

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 143 KB


1. JPY
2. CHF
3. EUR


6. NZD
7. AUD
8. CAD
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #244
  • Sep 28, 2015 11:33pm Sep 28, 2015 11:33pm
My Potential Daily Watchlist :

1. CAD/JPY, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bearish - I will be looking to place a Short Trade Only
2. AUD/JPY, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bearish - I will be looking to place a Short Trade Only
3. NZD/JPY, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bearish - I will be looking to place a Short Trade Only

4. CAD/CHF, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bearish - I will be looking to place a Short Trade Only
5. AUD/CHF, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bearish - I will be looking to place a Short Trade Only
6. NZD/CHF, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bearish - I will be looking to place a Short Trade Only

7. EUR/CAD, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bullish - I will be looking to place a Long Trade Only
8. EUR/AUD, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bullish - I will be looking to place a Long Trade Only
9. EUR/NZD, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bullish - I will be looking to place a Long Trade Only


Trade Logic

#1 Identify the Current Market Trend or Market Sentiment
#2 Wait for the Exact Signal that matches the Trend
#3 Execute the Trade

Goals:

We are trying to make close to 25-50pips Profit per Trade, and look to risk between 15-25pips
(Stop-Losses are manageable when you trail them )

Note: The Daily Market Sentiment can change at any given moment, so it's best to follow the Current Trend and make some pips.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #245
  • Sep 28, 2015 11:49pm Sep 28, 2015 11:49pm
EUR Light News Release - German Import prices in August 2015

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices decreased by 3.1% in August 2015
compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year.

In July 2015 and in June 2015 the annual rates of change were –1.7% and –1.4%, respectively.

From July 2015 to August 2015 the index fell by 1.5%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 1.4% compared with the level
of a year earlier.

The index of export prices increased by 0.8% in August 2015 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year.

In July 2015 and in June 2015 the annual rates of change were +1.2% and +1.3%, respectively.

From July 2015 to August 2015 the index fell by 0.5%.

Note: There's no need to understand all the numbers, but the most important thing is, the market is going
to take a clear Direction, and all the Data is going to show on our Strength Scale Indicator....

EUR shows Strength despite the Negative number, and I don't know for how long it's going to stay that way. Be Patient and wait
for your Entry Signal whether Long or Short....

Keep your eyes Open on more EUR News and a GBP News later around 3:30am CST...
numbers
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #246
  • Sep 28, 2015 11:53pm Sep 28, 2015 11:53pm
EUR/NZD, M5TF Update:

I have noticed a small retracement on this pair near the Previous Long EntrySignal, so I decided to open a Long Position....

As long as EUR Stays Strong, and NZD stays Weak, we might see some movement to the upside on this Pair....

Let's see how it turns out.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 145 KB
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #247
  • Sep 29, 2015 12:31am Sep 29, 2015 12:31am
EUR/NZD, M5TF Update:

London Open messed up my nice Setup on this Pair... Out of nowhere NZD decided to get Stronger....

I get stopped out...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 142 KB
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #248
  • Sep 29, 2015 3:04am Sep 29, 2015 3:04am
Jay - thank you for posting and guiding us through "the process". Although I have had success I am finding it very difficult to gauge market sentiment after recording my daily watch list. This is the issue you had with your EUR/NZD trade - one currency will suddenly decide to get very strong or weak and mess up the watch list. CHF/JPY was another one that was screaming go long until mid morning (uk time) but there has been no signal up so all is ok. Not sure how you handle this.

Its almost as though a system could be developed to counter-trade after a pair has been on opposite ends of the watch list for a while.
  • #249
  • Sep 29, 2015 4:36am Sep 29, 2015 4:36am
Quoting Toccata
Jay - thank you for posting and guiding us through "the process". Although I have had success I am finding it very difficult to gauge market sentiment after recording my daily watch list. This is the issue you had with your EUR/NZD trade - one currency will suddenly decide to get very strong or weak and mess up the watch list. CHF/JPY was another one that was screaming go long until mid morning (uk time) but there has been no signal up so all is ok. Not sure how you handle this. Its almost as though a system could be developed to counter-trade after...
Hey Toccata,

Thanks for stopping by mate, and I think that your insight was very valuable and It makes a lot of sense to say the least....One of the easiest ways to handle this kind of situation is to analyse your selected pairs (Watchlist) on Higher TF first, and if Market Sentiment matches with Overall Market Direction, you are more likely to have a very nice movement in the Market....

I have failed to do that in many occasions, because I just wanted to have a quick 25pips Profit, and more too often I left so much money on the table, I could have stayed a little longer just to cover future losses....

Again, you could initiate something different, as a trader instead of having a Daily Watchlist, you can just choose to have a weekly Watchlist....you will have plenty of time to do your Analysis on Higher TF, and find good Entries whenever the Smaller TF trend matches with the Higher TF Trend...

EUR/NZD has been ranging since the last week of August, and I had no idea....I thought this pair was going to move higher, but the Momentum has changed....The craziest part is the fact that there's no Fundamental News on NZD to cause its strength....After all, we can't fight the Market, we just follow and take advantage when the time presents itself.....

With regards to the counter-trend approach you have mentioned, we do have an indicator for that, it's the Knoxville Divergence Indicator... I made a few posts on how to use it when the market has been trending for a while, and you start seeing some exhaustion within Price....

Kind Regards!

OctaveJay
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #250
  • Sep 29, 2015 4:43am Sep 29, 2015 4:43am
Hi Octave,

If you will trade the AUD/USD, will you take LONG or SHORT on this one?

Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 39 KB
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #251
  • Edited 9:25am Sep 29, 2015 9:04am | Edited 9:25am
Hai Jay, i have used your way and its work. So please let me re-explain your way to see whether i am in correct direction and please correct me if i am wrong.

When the US major new (Consumer confidence) comes out, the result was Actual>Forecast as where the US currency was listed weaken in the ProfitSupreme Meter. So basically is it we don't need to follow the US major news to trade the US pair, whereas just scan the market at that time to find the strongest and weakest pair to trade.

EXAMPLE: When the US new came out, i scan the market and found EUR(Weak) and NZD(strongest), so i Short trade EURNZD. Found this way work. But i don't know have i deviated your way. I didn't trade US pair because cannot see any big movement among.


PS: Apologize for my poor English if you don't understand.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #252
  • Sep 29, 2015 10:39am Sep 29, 2015 10:39am
Quoting v2vboni
Hi Octave, If you will trade the AUD/USD, will you take LONG or SHORT on this one? Thanks. {image}
Hi V2vBoni,

If AUD is Strong and USD is Weak, therefore I will go Long.

If AUD is Weak and USD is Strong, therefore I will go Short.

From a Technical perspective, I would wait for a break above and close above candle at that Resistance level, before going Long.. By the way, the Bull Trend
was already established at the London Open.. So, it would be too easy to forecast where the market is most likely to go.

I hope you took advantage of that Setup.

Jay
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #253
  • Sep 29, 2015 10:50am Sep 29, 2015 10:50am
Quoting Uniubi
Hai Jay, i have used your way and its work. So please let me re-explain your way to see whether i am in correct direction and please correct me if i am wrong. When the US major new (Consumer confidence) comes out, the result was Actual>Forecast as where the US currency was listed weaken in the ProfitSupreme Meter. So basically is it we don't need to follow the US major news to trade the US pair, whereas just scan the market at that time to find the strongest and weakest pair to trade. EXAMPLE: When the US new came out, i scan the market and found...

Hi Uniubi,

I think that you clearly understand the process, and as long it does make sense to you, keep using it until it becomes Natural for you to trade the market like this. That was a great explanation from your part, and I did understand everything....

Keep it up mate!

Jay
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #254
  • Sep 29, 2015 12:16pm Sep 29, 2015 12:16pm
Note:

I have placed a Short Trade on EUR/USD despite EUR being Strong Today, This is more of a Counter-Trend Trade combined with a Swing-Trade Approach....

I will keep you guys posted when I have more time to explain the decision behind this trade.....

1.13000 is a Key Level on EUR/USD, and I do expect price to trade below that Level throughout this week....

I am done trading for today, will be back later around London Session or late London Session, because I like to trade the New York Session
on Wednesdays and Thursdays just to have more time in the Market....

Later!

OctaveJay
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #255
  • Sep 29, 2015 9:53pm Sep 29, 2015 9:53pm
Hi Octave.... It is clear now and I was able to apply your approach.

Thank you once again!
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #256
  • Sep 29, 2015 10:55pm Sep 29, 2015 10:55pm
Strength Scale Update @ 12:52am CST

Wednesday, September 30th, 2015

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 151 KB


1. NZD
2. AUD
3. CAD


6. JPY
7. EUR
8. CHF
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #257
  • Sep 29, 2015 10:56pm Sep 29, 2015 10:56pm
Quoting v2vboni
Hi Octave.... It is clear now and I was able to apply your approach. Thank you once again!
You are welcome V2vboni,

Keep it up mate!

OctaveJay
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #258
  • Sep 29, 2015 11:13pm Sep 29, 2015 11:13pm
My Potential Daily Watchlist :

1. NZD/CHF, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bullish - I will be looking to place a Long Trade Only
2. EUR/NZD, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bearish - I will be looking to place a Short Trade Only
3. NZD/JPY, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bullish - I will be looking to place a Long Trade Only

4. AUD/CHF, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bullish - I will be looking to place a Long Trade Only
5. EUR/AUD, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bearish - I will be looking to place a Short Trade Only
6. AUD/JPY, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bullish - I will be looking to place a Long Trade Only

7. CAD/CHF, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bullish - I will be looking to place a Long Trade Only
8. EUR/CAD, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bearish - I will be looking to place a Short Trade Only
9. CAD/JPY, M5TF - Market Sentiment: Bullish - I will be looking to place a Long Trade Only


Trade Logic

#1 Identify the Current Market Trend or Market Sentiment
#2 Wait for the Exact Signal that matches the Trend
#3 Execute the Trade

Goals:

We are trying to make close to 25-50pips Profit per Trade, and look to risk between 15-25pips
(Stop-Losses are manageable when you trail them )

Note: The Daily Market Sentiment can change at any given moment, so it's best to follow the Current Trend and make some pips.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #259
  • Sep 30, 2015 11:40am Sep 30, 2015 11:40am
Daily Quote:

" The Biggest Problem is not to let People accept New Ideas, but to let them forget the Old ones." John Keynes
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #260
  • Oct 1, 2015 4:51am Oct 1, 2015 4:51am
Quoting OctaveJay509
{quote} Hello Hercs, Thank you very much and I am glad that you were impressed by the simplicity of it... As we both know, taking actions might require a little bit of faith or conviction that's going to be based or rely on some kind of knowledge of Price Action and Market Structure, You Know! With regards to your request about mq4 Format, I will have to look into that and check for you, but for right now I don't think that I have access to any of them indicators on mq4 Format....This is a collection of many indicators that I have been testing in...
====

Apologies for the late reply O_Jay. Yes, I have the latest 840 Build MT4.

Best wishes.
Hercs
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