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Capital Weightlifting Championship

  • #101
  • Sep 21, 2015 1:21pm Sep 21, 2015 1:21pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Hey Lookin, If I do that then things start becoming tricky because lot sizes will have to start getting involved which in turn brings in pips and more.... a bit messy. During the weekend I connected the spread sheet to my live results. I use the P/L column from my other sheet that has commission already deducted. We could also assume perhaps that the 2:1 trades already take the comm. into consideration with a little extra profit and a little less loss (it's how I trade anyway heh). Cheers, Matt.
Well for spread, you can probably just use a % of risk and also just a hard coded # for commission. Also slippage could be taken into account on orders of x or larger.

Your right though, it would require some more coding. I have a "monster excel" that i run all my forecasting/monte carlo through that i've slowly added to over the years. it has all the variation in spreads, variation in entries/exits, variation in slippage. In the end i find formulas are to restrictive. You're probably gonna have get into some VBA coding to get the job done properly. It's rather easy once you get the syntaxes down.
  • #102
  • Sep 21, 2015 1:33pm Sep 21, 2015 1:33pm
Quoting Good Lookin
{quote} Well for spread, you can probably just use a % of risk and also just a hard coded # for commission. Also slippage could be taken into account on orders of x or larger. Your right though, it would require some more coding. I have a "monster excel" that i run all my forecasting/monte carlo through that i've slowly added to over the years. it has all the variation in spreads, variation in entries/exits, variation in slippage. In the end i find formulas are to restrictive. You're probably gonna have get into some VBA coding to get the job done...
Heh sounds awesome. My spreadsheets are fairly simple. I don't use VBA or such but may advance there soon. I also find my sheets advance over time. I mainly just use mine for live results giving %'s, pips, difference in pipage vs AUD (account deposit) and so on. I like my charting as well with trades, days, weekly(+monthly) charts too. I find that if I start getting too involved with my spread sheets that my trading actually goes a little backward due to the amount of time I spend on them hehe.

Currently have my lvl 3 trade open and it missed my TP by 1.1pips. That's 3 trades in as many days that has missed my profit by 2 or less pips / 8 trades and that's not including UJ ealier that missed by 4 pips.... sigh.

About to close but GJ maybe good for the reversal where I will be looking to make up the difference.
EJ
Attached Image
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #103
  • Sep 22, 2015 3:38am Sep 22, 2015 3:38am
Quoting Matts Micro
On top of the simulator I also have to mention (again) that I don't believe that my winning streaks and losing streaks are entirely random. I have noticed that when the market is moving with confidence I can easily put together 3+ trades but in uncertainty, a time I try to avoid (like the next couple of days) it is difficult to put together more than a couple of winning trades. Next week however after FOMC people will be more confident to position themselves... depending on the outcome of course. So my system is built to accommodate that...

As predicted trading has been easier this week and confirms my strategy with this MM system. I should of in reality just about had 2* +3 net trading runs but a bit of hoopla going on with micro lot - 3pip misses on my TP's.

Anyhows, +3 trades completed. If interested I have logged them in my journal starting post #215.http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8495898
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #104
  • Sep 22, 2015 9:57am Sep 22, 2015 9:57am
I'm liking this quite a lot....

I would say this is more of a parlay system than anything to do with martingale.

I originally responded on the R2R thread, without quite understanding it, and my original thought was to start on it - I think that I have a pretty good strategy that will lend itself pretty well to this using some TA and PA as well as S/D where it commands..

I am going to set up a trade explorer to show what and how i am doing.

I am not using the two account approach, I am using one account and trading on level 1- 5%, level 2- 9.1% and level 3- 15.4% using $200 as the starting point (although due to conversions, it is actually starting with $193...)

my TP levels should usually be around 100, and SL around 50 only trading the 4hr and 1day charts (anything less and i end up losing trades!)

Lets see how this pans out...
  • #105
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:15am Sep 22, 2015 10:15am
Quoting rolandW
I'm liking this quite a lot.... I would say this is more of a parlay system than anything to do with martingale. I originally responded on the R2R thread, without quite understanding it, and my original thought was to start on it - I think that I have a pretty good strategy that will lend itself pretty well to this using some TA and PA as well as S/D where it commands.. I am going to set up a trade explorer to show what and how i am doing. I am not using the two account approach, I am using one account and trading on level 1- 5%, level 2- 9.1% and...
Hey rolandW,
Sounds like you have a good plan. It is good you are adapting it to your own style as my description (2 acc's, % etc) is only meant to be a guide and what I personally use.

I look forward to seeing your TE,

GL,
Matt.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #106
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:46am Sep 22, 2015 10:46am
Cheers Matt... the TE will be activated once i have my first closed trade - i did have it open for another strategy, although very similar to this, and it did pretty well. I have not traded for the last couple of months, but raring to get back into it.

i am going to be trying something a bit backward though... setting my TP first, then halving it, and using that to work out the risk percentage... a bit backward for me as i would only ever use a SL to calculate risk, but the strategy i am using is based on PA as a confirmation, and (touch wood) does not seem to go far into the negative on a winning trade, so hopefully that should mean that losers lose in any case, but winners will win regardless of the equity drawdown..

I have attached my spreadsheet if anyone is interested...

Bank Account yellow cell - add your start balance
Perceived account, enter your level - so either 200, 400, 800... and if you have a -1 you reset to 200, or whatever level you need to be at. And you reset after +3 has been completed. eg, W,W,W, you reset the next row to 1, and then in my example, you lose the next one, so you need to reset the perceived account to 200....

Trade level keeps you on trade, and should only be 1,2,3- this also works out the risk percentage, so how much you need to risk and to gain per trade...

W/L, put a w in for a winner, anything else is a loser! The rest of the spreadsheet should auto update.. When the Bank account goes into the next level - ie 400, you set the perceived account to that level and start from there - it should track where your bank balance is at... the P'N'L can be updated for the little variances in spread, currency conversion - should be pretty easy to use....
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx MMR2R.xlsx   19 KB | 474 downloads
  • #107
  • Sep 22, 2015 11:36am Sep 22, 2015 11:36am
Quoting rolandW
Cheers Matt... the TE will be activated once i have my first closed trade - i did have it open for another strategy, although very similar to this, and it did pretty well. I have not traded for the last couple of months, but raring to get back into it. i am going to be trying something a bit backward though... setting my TP first, then halving it, and using that to work out the risk percentage... a bit backward for me as i would only ever use a SL to calculate risk, but the strategy i am using is based on PA as a confirmation, and (touch wood) does...
Excellent spread sheet. It has just one problem, there are funny squiggles where the dollar $ symbol should be.. hehe kiddin, good work. I find that these tools actually improve my trading, not sure how it works; perhaps it's discipline, maybe organisation but what ever it is, it helps, at least for me.


Just a thought for anyone reading. If anyone comes across a good position size calculator for MT4 pls let me know. For something that would seem like a simple program I have come across very limited options. I use good ol' Baby Pips online but it would be really handy if someone could point me in the direction of an indicator or script that functions on MT4. I've tried a couple but basically there're crap. I just want to type the amount of risk I want and for it to calculate the amount of pips using my deposit currency. The baby pips program is simple and I could prob do the same formula on a spread sheet so it's surprising I haven't found something yet.

Cheers,
Matt.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #108
  • Sep 22, 2015 4:04pm Sep 22, 2015 4:04pm
Haha, funny thing is, my account is in dollars... so not quite sure why i have put it in GBP... Force of habit!

I use two bits - one is a position sizer where you can set risk to reward, and place horizontal line and it trades off that - but it is unfortunately not mine to share...

The other thing i use is an app on the iphone, where you enter in your sl in pips, account balance, and % risk and it gives you your lot size for the chosen pair... it is called 'lot size calculator' funnily enough...
  • #109
  • Sep 24, 2015 3:30am Sep 24, 2015 3:30am
TE should show now show, first trade went to break even after hitting 1/2 profit target and then fell away.
  • #110
  • Sep 24, 2015 3:51am Sep 24, 2015 3:51am
Quoting rolandW
TE should show now show, first trade went to break even after hitting 1/2 profit target and then fell away.
Good work, will be interested to see how you go .

I am currently testing a second account on demo. I have being thinking of having two accounts running on top of the Principle account (2x Trading acc.). Often my trades can take between 2-4+ hrs to complete and I am watching good trades going to waste. Depending on the DD of my primary trading acc. from my Principle acc. I am considering using the second for different trades. I have set up a demo for this purpose. I am actually using the demo to test another theory as well, of watching to see how my trades go unattended ie no B.E.

I am thinking of setting up a TE with this account. I will be trading it like both accounts in one, so the Principle and Trading account joined.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #111
  • Sep 24, 2015 4:00am Sep 24, 2015 4:00am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Good work, will be interested to see how you go . I am currently testing a second account on demo. I have being thinking of having two accounts running on top of the Principle account (2x Trading acc.). Often my trades can take between 2-4+ hrs to complete and I am watching good trades going to waste. Depending on the DD of my primary trading acc. from my Principle acc. I am considering using the second for different trades. I have set up a demo for this purpose. I am actually using the demo to test another theory as well, of watching...
Created TE.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #112
  • Edited 9:45am Sep 24, 2015 9:01am | Edited 9:45am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} As predicted trading has been easier this week and confirms my strategy with this MM system. I should of in reality just about had 2* +3 net trading runs but a bit of hoopla going on with micro lot - 3pip misses on my TP's. Anyhows, +3 trades completed. If interested I have logged them in my journal starting post #215.http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8495898
+3 net trades.

I had a bad day yesterday and perhaps it was pre-Draghi that faked me out but managed 5 losses... yer prob over trading. At the same time if you don't trade all the signals you wont be there for when the real ones count, to begin the +3 net trades.

Anyhows moving up a Level.
My Journal for this system starts here. (#215)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8495898

I also broke the rule about not bringing my SL to B.E. on the TE trades (GU), did it without thinking heh. Time will tell if it was the right thing to do.

Edit: It was the right thing to do.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #113
  • Sep 25, 2015 1:08am Sep 25, 2015 1:08am
I have included comments in the Trade List of the TE so that hopefully what I am doing can be followed.

Any Q's pls ask.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #114
  • Sep 25, 2015 3:05am Sep 25, 2015 3:05am
going pretty well Matt, well done.

I work on the 4hr time frame and it is slow going at the moment...
  • #115
  • Sep 25, 2015 3:22am Sep 25, 2015 3:22am
Quoting rolandW
going pretty well Matt, well done. I work on the 4hr time frame and it is slow going at the moment...

Cheers roland, it's early days yet but it's going ok

4hr tf is good, it's all about patience.


Cheers,
Matt.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #116
  • Sep 26, 2015 5:02am Sep 26, 2015 5:02am
Just thought I'd share a graph. Here are the results from my live account since starting my journal. (The TE doesn't yet have enough results for a feasible study).

The Trading Account axis is on the right of the chart, the Level and the Principle Account axis is on the left. The blue/red arrows are the withdrawals from Trading Account to the Principle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Live results.JPG Size: 110 KB


I think here it starts to become apparent by what I mean with Profit/Loss "Trends". During times of uncertainty it takes me a few trades to find a trend but when a trend is found it is succeeded with a winning run. This is where the system has a quick 1-2-3 net trade win and profits can be snatched from the market for another attempt. Also with a couple of wins the Rags to Riches Level is increased. If I complete 7 more levels then the R2R target will have been completed... though that is a ways off yet.

There are a couple of losses in the results that shouldn't be and a 1 TP not taken. As I progress, I am looking to perhaps try to filter out a few more losses; at times, revenge or frustration still takes its hold still on me and I re-enter a market that should be left alone.

The TE is a contemplated "second" Trading account to run beside this one that also feeds and draws to/from the Principle Account. As can be seen from the results of the TE, it has had better trades for the week. This is one of the sole reasons why I created it. I find that I am already in the market, whether it be a winning or losing trades with my margin already at work but find that other markets are beginning to move with high potential trades. If I have the two accounts and enter both accounts in a uncertain market however, then the DD of the Principle Account will have to be taken into consideration and thus there lies the test.

Any Q's as per norm are welcomed.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #117
  • Sep 27, 2015 10:05am Sep 27, 2015 10:05am
Matts,

Interesting thread. I love tweaking MM styles to try and squeeze more profits out of the markets with less risk.
I remember the R2R thread but never traded it successfully. I like your variation here and may take it for a spin.
1 dilemma you've stumbled upon is multiple positions or entries. This system can be employed for if you have 1 open
at a time, but becomes unwieldy otherwise. I have an aggressive MM on my REPS system that allows for multiple pairs and
stacking positions for long carry times.

But for "1 and done" trading this looks promising.

Noticed you were looking for a trade position calculator. I like this one. Allows you to put in a balance % risk, equity % risk or a $ amount risk to calculate
position size.

Cheers

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 PositionSizeCalculator - Main Window.ex4   17 KB | 537 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 PositionSizeCalculator - Main Window.mq4   11 KB | 518 downloads
  • #118
  • Sep 27, 2015 2:13pm Sep 27, 2015 2:13pm
Quoting spyderman
Matts, Interesting thread. I love tweaking MM styles to try and squeeze more profits out of the markets with less risk. I remember the R2R thread but never traded it successfully. I like your variation here and may take it for a spin. 1 dilemma you've stumbled upon is multiple positions or entries. This system can be employed for if you have 1 open at a time, but becomes unwieldy otherwise. I have an aggressive MM on my REPS system that allows for multiple pairs and stacking positions for long carry times. But for "1 and done" trading this looks...
Hey Spyderman,
Yer I remember you from the R2R thread and you helped me at the time to calculate lot sizes (max lots per pip or something I think).
The interesting thing I found in the 40% WR random generator formula was that 9 net trades (needed for R2R) almost never happens but 3-6 net trades is quite common. Also just an interesting stat that I came across was; if trading above the current level (but the next not yet reached) it is possible to have 14 losses (withdraws from principle account), if it then hits the +3 net trades it will be back to break even. That's a lot of losses. It is common to see 40+ losses (from principle account) in the generator and yet the account stays alive, and with a couple of 3+ trades it's close to being back to where it started. 40+ losses and I think I will hang my hat up but still the system could survive. Seeing theory and trading the real thing is always different however so I will wait for true results before getting over zealous.

Made me chuckle with your comment about my multiple trading. So true. I am by nature a little gung-ho and it has taken me a long time to curb my enthusiasm from pulling the trading trigger. Obviously it still needs work and I need to caution myself patience... so hard. You are right, it is a 1 trade system and I need the discipline to trade like it's designed.

Ty for the Trading Calculator, I will give it whirl next week.

If you decide to give it go, let me how it goes.
GL,
Matt.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #119
  • Sep 28, 2015 4:33am Sep 28, 2015 4:33am
I have been having a bit of an issue with my brain recently, and have been 'trying' some stuff out on my MMR2R account... a bit silly!

On top of that, my trading style is on where i usually calculate my SL, and then that gives me my %risk, and i then usually try to target S/R... At the moment, that has sort of flipped where I try to look for my profit exit and then calculate my SL... which means more losers than winners (just because of my strategy...

However, i believe that i have ironed some of these issues out and have set up my charts to give me a small risk (and potential for R:R of of x3 or more...). I am discretionary by nature- PA tends to do that... so will be interesting to see if I can bank more than the 1:2 Risk reward...

I was also thinking about what you were saying about having more than one account due to missing a lot of opportunities... I have been thinking the same thing, and applying that methodology to the spreadsheet - the great thing about percentage of perceived account (ie the levels) is that it can all be done from the same account, and gives you the benefit of having unlimited accounts... the limiting factor of the method is that if you have a trade open, you can not open another until it closes, and you know if it turns into a win or a loss...

I think the spreadsheet idea of being able to open many trades means that you can open unlimited (leverage and margin permitting) and a couple of level 1's that go to level three, means that you can cover all your level 1 losses quite comfortably, without ever really feeling overwhelmed.

Either you stop all series once you hit the next level up (ie 100 - 200) or you continue them on the previous level until you either hit B/E point on the series, or they win (an extra boost per level which would help with the margin requirements as you go up the levels, having 500 instead of 400 account is always helpful, when you are working off the 400 level... etc.)...

Of course you could open multiple level 1's and if they all win - you could play only 1 level 2 at any time (bearing in mind that it represents 9% of your perceived account... leverage and margin would need to be taken into account).
  • #120
  • Sep 28, 2015 6:20am Sep 28, 2015 6:20am
Seems to me if you wanted to employ this on multiple pairs that it would be best to treat each pair as it's own series using multiple sub-accounts. You could then sweep them to the main account.
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