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Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

  • #61
  • Sep 26, 2015 8:17am Sep 26, 2015 8:17am
Quoting limzy
Hi Kat, Thanks for the excellent advice especially on expectations, i had a similar belief that was confirmed by yourself. {quote} Also, with regards to "good" books giving sound advice, do you have any recommendations
hi Limzy,

I already recommended some books in this thread. Here is my reply to one of the FF members who contacted me about the books, it should cover pretty much all.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
These are the books I recommended in my thread:

"I recommend Market Wizards, The New Market Wizards, The disciplined trader, trading in the zone, trader Vic, trader Vic 2, both Steven Drobny's books, Alchemy of finance from Soros, the Market Maker's edge from Josh Lukeman, reminiscences of stock operator is a good read too."

This is kind of how I would prioritize them:

I really liked Drobny's books (but that is more global macro stuff, not really about charts or systems), but also Market Wizards. Those books will give you understanding how some of the greatest risk takers approach the market. It talks about fundamentals too which is fine for me as I use that all the time, as well as technicals. Then Douglas is very good too and that's more applicable to technical trading that the previous ones. The book from Soros is a bit more difficult read so wouldn't really put it as a priority. All of them are great though, and really trust me on this - if you stop reading everything on FF and you dedicate all that time to reading all those books, it will make you a much better trader. Make sure to mark up anything interesting you find while reading, then when you finish you can just quickly go through it to refresh - that helps a lot.

These books above are more related to trading directly, if you want to learn more about Stocks, I would go for Intelligent Investor from Benjamin Graham (but you will need to do more research as Equities have never been my thing). For Options please read Nattenberg - Options volatility and pricing and then Dynamic Hedging from Nassim Taleb. These books are quite technical though, so it might be difficult to grasp those concepts (Nattenberg is much more easier so definitely read that one - should be actually enough unless you aspire to become options market maker at a bank). For bonds or ETF, don't really know what I would recommend as there is not much to be explained - just read some random articles on the internet I would say.

------------------------------------------------------------

Hope it helps.

cheers,

katrooo.
  • #62
  • Sep 26, 2015 8:21am Sep 26, 2015 8:21am
Quoting katrooo
{quote} That's a fair point Copernicus, it's all about finding your own "thing". And I am sure that as an EA developer and a guy who is into automatic systems / models you need to work extremely hard to make it really works and find these hard combinations of things which give you an edge. Also you need to deal with market changes and adapt / tweak your models / inputs or turn some of your models on/off when necessary. You also probably run different models at the same time and allocate different ammount of capital to each of them, based on the...
Hi K...funnily enough I have come from the discretionary camp into the automated camp so it probably means the season will change down the track and I will revert back again to discretionary. Talk about a moving feast.

There is no question that hard work is inevitable in whichever camp you follow, so I am less inclined to adopt a perspective that automation always means looking for an easy way out....but I get what you and hanover are saying as a generalisation.

I have a feeling I might be at home in that fund management camp you were describing.....sounds fun. I have emanated from the compliance side of the industry and as a result, have an inbuilt bias of risk aversion. You can probably therefore see where I am coming from in my interpretation and why those successful trend following diversified automated programs have so much current appeal to me.

Cheers :-)
  • #63
  • Sep 26, 2015 3:02pm Sep 26, 2015 3:02pm
I've really appreciated this thread. Thank you for going to the time to start it, and to answer follow-up questions

Seeing as you're an actual, real-life, fair-dinkum professional, I have a question I need to ask... Do you have any idea what dancingphil is talking about in his thread "What is the MOST important level on your chart today?"??

Quoting dancingphil
NOT yesterday; what is the most important level on your chart TODAY? Buggered if I am going to tell you - yet it is real and new every day. This level that is relied upon by it seems EVERY Market Maker. This level returned to several times almost every day. I haven't traded in 13 months. I am still only worth my $88 million back then. I still only own that cash, less the $17,000,000 and change I paid to buy 12,400 ounces of gold at an average of $1,367 per. Yet I cannot understand why people haven't seen or understood the MOST IMPORTANT level on...
  • #64
  • Sep 26, 2015 4:27pm Sep 26, 2015 4:27pm
Quoting MadLu
I've really appreciated this thread. Thank you for going to the time to start it, and to answer follow-up questions Seeing as you're an actual, real-life, fair-dinkum professional, I have a question I need to ask... Do you have any idea what dancingphil is talking about in his thread "What is the MOST important level on your chart today?"?? {quote}
hi MadLu,

I had a short look at it and it seems like a scam to me. This is the thing with retail FX trading, that there is just too many scammers around. If you've been around for a while you can recognize it quite easily, but it gets worse if you are new to trading. For some people who are frustrated with trading after few years, the only way left is to try to screw up some (mostly less experienced / beginner) traders by selling stuff to them or offering mentoring for ridiculous prices with little knowledge to offer.

1. He is saying that he is a multi-millionaire who made 88mn trading FX --- this is just to get the attention of beginners, i.e. wants to look like someone who can teach people how to get really rich in a short time

2. He is talking in a secretive way about some super-important level on the chart which appears there every day --- First of all, that is BS as nothing like that exists. Second of all it is just a marketing trick to get even more attention. As I mentioned in my posts before, most beginners are trying to find shortcuts by discovering an easy to follow mechanical system / holy grail which would make them consistent profit, so the claim about some super-important level will get a LOT of attention by the beginners.

3. The guy is offering mentoring services / courses

So it is all way too clear, you have a self-proclaimed FX trader superstar multimilionaire, with a secret methodology, offering courses / mentoring for which you have to pay money. It is a fraud, don't even go to that thread anymore.

Back to my points about beginners, I don't mean anything in an offensive way, it is absolutely normal and logical that almost everyone who is starting with trading wants shortcuts and wants to get it done in an easy way. And make all those millions which were advertised by a local broker I was exactly the same when I started.
  • #65
  • Sep 26, 2015 4:48pm Sep 26, 2015 4:48pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Hi K...funnily enough I have come from the discretionary camp into the automated camp so it probably means the season will change down the track and I will revert back again to discretionary. Talk about a moving feast. There is no question that hard work is inevitable in whichever camp you follow, so I am less inclined to adopt a perspective that automation always means looking for an easy way out....but I get what you and hanover are saying as a generalisation. I have a feeling I might be at home in that fund management camp you were...
hi C,

I was actually thinking about some models / EAs for my own personal trading account. It is actually a very funny situation with regards to personal trading for me, as there might be a conflict of interests given my job. My company has a policy that whatever asset you buy with your personal funds, you have to hold it for at least 50 days. This all holds true for things like stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, structured products etc. Funilly enough those rules don't hold for FX or OTC derivatives like FX options and basically I could even trade FX intraday with my own money (theoretically, if I had time for it). One of the compliance officers told me that it is all okay, as FX is a huge market and there is no real risk of having some insider information. It is kind of weird, as there are instances where my trades actually move the market (in some EMFX pairs, not in G10)

So I was thinking about coding some simple models (in a way i explained in one of my previous posts) for G10 FX and turn some of them on/off some days based on my discretion, before going to work.

Then on a separate note, I was even thinking about something really agressive which I would always turn on/off (discretionaly) only some days / particular times during the day and it would be based on some grid / semi-martingale system (done in a way that there would be a hard break / SL / hedge trade at some point, but would need to think it through more). This would be kind of a separate account / accounts where I would put only small capital like 500 pounds each time, seeking a proper home-run. I think I could make this work well, but I really believe that the trader's discretion is a key element here. This would be separate to my IB account where I do some proper investing for longer-term, and my (non-existant yet) retail FX trading account where I would be running these models while being at work.

Where would you advise me to start if I want to learn coding these things? I mean, I am decent at coding in C++, VBA, Matlab and some other stuff, the thing is just that I've never done any coding in MT4 before.
  • #66
  • Sep 26, 2015 4:53pm Sep 26, 2015 4:53pm
Quoting Borg
{quote} Hello katrooo: Thanks for the great explanation of a squeezy market and the other great answers to my questions. But I am having a hard time visualizing it as any thing more than a large correction in a say a bull trend, followed by a move back up to make a double top. But it can't be that simple. If you have a chance can show a chart explaining what a squeezy market is ? Thank You Borg
Not sure if I can post bloomberg charts here because of possible compliance issues, so will have to install MT at some point and then will try to show you some examples.
  • #67
  • Edited 7:12pm Sep 26, 2015 6:26pm | Edited 7:12pm
Morning from here K in sunny Aus

Quoting katrooo
{quote} hi C, I was actually thinking about some models / EAs for my own personal trading account. It is actually a very funny situation with regards to personal trading for me, as there might be a conflict of interests given my job. My company has a policy that whatever asset you buy with your personal funds, you have to hold it for at least 50 days. This all holds true for things like stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, structured products etc. Funilly enough those rules don't hold for FX or OTC derivatives like FX options and basically I could...
Pffft....compliance. The rules are the rules and if you are allowed to trade the derivative then 'show me the money'. I never said compliance guys were sensible....just prickly and unreasonable. Our whole purpose is to make those flyboy floor traders and crazy IM's life more difficult.


Quoting katrooo
It is kind of weird, as there are instances where my trades actually move the market (in some EMFX pairs, not in G10) So I was thinking about coding some simple models (in a way i explained in one of my previous posts) for G10 FX and turn some of them on/off some days based on my discretion, before going to work. Then on a separate note, I was even thinking about something really agressive which I would always turn on/off (discretionaly) only some days / particular times during the day and it would be based on some grid / semi-martingale system...
Yeah....it is only when you have investors to worry about and need to preserve your popularity that your options become limited in how creative you can be.

Quoting katrooo
This would be separate to my IB account where I do some proper investing for longer-term, and my (non-existant yet) retail FX trading account where I would be running these models while being at work. Where would you advise me to start if I want to learn coding these things? I mean, I am decent at coding in C++, VBA, Matlab and some other stuff, the thing is just that I've never done any coding in MT4 before.
Damn.... I wish I could help here. I am an analyst and not a coder hence since putting up my trader's shingle since leaving my home in Trusteee/RE/Custodian operations was on the discretionary method with a very small fund of mine....(that ended in tears) but subsequently now work closely with a coder fluent in MT4 (hence why I inhabit FF)..... so I face the same situation.

Given my direction is leaning towards getting back into the FM space..... but seriously this time ....I have been spending the last few years with my training wheels on but focussing on the systems as opposed to the coding. If I was going alone....as really I probably should be as I need to be the master of my own destiny....then I would probably be forced into those platforms such as Wealthlab and RightEdge that are excellent for portfolio management testing and then directing orders through to the big boys platforms for execution so I think at least for me my plan of attack over the longer term will be the C++ variants.

I remember reading on this forum I think from a highly qualified coder that if you are serious about learning coding then start with Python and then work your way up into higher level languages as the foundational structure of the language is a solid basis to start with....so maybe this is where to start the long haul. I wish I could be of more help. In fact maybe it is time for me to stop dilly-dallying around and do the same thing.

Lots of great coders on this forum that would be able to give you far better guidance than Mr prickly here....Red Line Fred, Hanover and FerruFX immediately spring to my mind but many others as well. A coupla books I have recently acquired that currently sit on the digital bookshelf gathering dust are 'Easy Automated Trading: Simplifed Coding for Metrader 4 - Munro' - and 'Expert Advisor Programming for Metrader 4 - Young'. Not sure how helpful these will be. Jim Hodges website course is another that has been recommended to me. :-)
  • #68
  • Sep 26, 2015 8:11pm Sep 26, 2015 8:11pm
Quoting katrooo
Where would you advise me to start if I want to learn coding these things? I mean, I am decent at coding in C++, VBA, Matlab and some other stuff, the thing is just that I've never done any coding in MT4 before.
There's also the NinjaTrader route, which uses C# rather than MQL. You can build powerful "strategies" (EAs) that run in Ninja but execute trades through your broker. I know C# is different to C++, but my background is VB and it wasn't difficult for me to convert to C#.

You mentioned IB above. Is that Interactive Brokers? That's who I use and they connect to Ninja no problem. Actually it's very difficult to connect MetaTrader to IB, and apparently impossible to feed IB data to MetaTrader. So that's why I program in NinjaScript (C#).

The obvious drawback is that most people on this forum use MT, so you won't be able to share any EAs or indicators with them easily (without someone converting it). But if it's your own personal project then why not?
You reap what you sow.
  • #69
  • Sep 27, 2015 3:31am Sep 27, 2015 3:31am
Quoting katrooo
I am decent at coding in C++, VBA, Matlab and some other stuff, the thing is just that I've never done any coding in MT4 before.
K,

If you have experience in C++, then MQL4/5 shouldn't present too many difficulties. I did some coding in C back in the 1980s, and it took me maybe 2-3 weeks to become reasonably fluent in MQL4. The basic syntax and structures (data types, arrays, if/then/else, loop controls, etc) are effectively a subset of C, which MQL4 then overlays with commands to control indicators and chart objects, and of course trading functions (open/close different types of orders, set/move SL/TP etc), making it possible to write all of your own custom indicators and EAs.

MT4 build 600 -- which if I understand correctly is effectively MQL5, an OO type upgrade to the old MQL4 -- was forced on programmers back in Feb 2014, and having a lot of existing code to migrate, I decided to stay with the 'old' familiar MQL4. From what I've seen MQL5 offers a more comprehensive language, with more features and an improved IDE (interactive debugging facilities etc), but I haven't been there yet. No doubt others here can describe it better than I can.

David
  • #70
  • Sep 27, 2015 4:01am Sep 27, 2015 4:01am
Quoting Copernicus
Morning from here K in sunny Aus {quote} Pffft....compliance. The rules are the rules and if you are allowed to trade the derivative then 'show me the money'. I never said compliance guys were sensible....just prickly and unreasonable. Our whole purpose is to make those flyboy floor traders and crazy IM's life more difficult. {quote} Yeah....it is only when you have investors to worry about and need to preserve your popularity that your options become limited in how creative you can be. {quote} Damn.... I wish I could help here. I am...
C, thanks a lot for good advice. I will look around and see what are the options. I have a very good friend of mine who is a quant HF guy who has been developing automatic strategies for couple of years with some decent success so I think I am going to consult him as well.

It's funny because if we were in pre-08 years I don't think I would even think about trading on my own as the rewards in high finance used to be insanely high, and you would become a milionaire in few years basically. Now with the regulations and all the bureaucracy (especially in large firms as mine) it's more like a marathon. For example in my case, I am still a junior corporate title wise but have responsibilities of a senior risk taker - and unfortunately these days you get paid based on your corporate title. That's why you normally don't want to stick for too long, and the only way forward are the hedge funds with profit sharing formulas / own hedge fund / trading on your own. So they way I want to go for now is continue working in my job as it allows me to save some decent capital for the future, but also start trading on my own - the only way would be EAs though, as I couldn't discretionaly trade my own money at work while trading clients' money. Unless I want to get fired or jailed, haha.

And C, with regards to your own coding, I do really recommend you take your destiny in your hands, it's never too late to learn new things whatever it might be. Imagine that you are able to implement your new ideas on the spot, without asking your coder and without explaining him all the details
  • #71
  • Sep 27, 2015 4:22am Sep 27, 2015 4:22am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} There's also the NinjaTrader route, which uses C# rather than MQL. You can build powerful "strategies" (EAs) that run in Ninja but execute trades through your broker. I know C# is different to C++, but my background is VB and it wasn't difficult for me to convert to C#. You mentioned IB above. Is that Interactive Brokers? That's who I use and they connect to Ninja no problem. Actually it's very difficult to connect MetaTrader to IB, and apparently impossible to feed IB data to MetaTrader. So that's why I program in NinjaScript (C#). The...
hey NT,

yeah I use interactive brokers as well, but use them for more of a long-term investing stuff in stocks, ETFs etc. Honestly I find their platform ridiculous, it just feels to be soo bad, I couldn't even understand how to trade FX from that. So my thinking was that I would open up a different account with different broker for FX trading only. So you are normally using IB for FX and even running algos on that?
  • #72
  • Sep 27, 2015 4:31am Sep 27, 2015 4:31am
Quoting hanover
{quote} K, If you have experience in C++, then MQL4/5 shouldn't present too many difficulties. I did some coding in C back in the 1980s, and it took me maybe 2-3 weeks to become reasonably fluent in MQL4. The basic syntax and structures (data types, arrays, if/then/else, loop controls, etc) are effectively a subset of C, which MQL4 then overlays with commands to control indicators and chart objects, and of course trading functions (open/close different types of orders, set/move SL/TP etc), making it possible to write all of your own custom indicators...
Thanks for advice David.
  • #73
  • Sep 27, 2015 4:47am Sep 27, 2015 4:47am
Quoting katrooo
{quote} hi MadLu, I had a short look at it and it seems like a scam to me.
Yeah, I figured he sounded like a bit of a scammer, but thought I may as well ask you, just in case there was a chance he was on to something. There was a forum I used to visit often for property investing, where there was a guy who seemed like a real tosser, lots of bragging, but over time if you could ignore his attitude, it turned out he had some fairly interesting things to say.

Anyhow, I'm new to all this but certainly not looking for a magic shortcut. I've ordered some of the books you suggested and I'm trying to practice, learn, try new things, until I find something that works for me. I did well with the August flash crash, or whatever they're calling it, but only because it was so violent that it was impossible to mistake the direction. Trying to follow any trend subtler than a total crash hasn't worked for me yet. Haha. But I'll get there
  • #74
  • Sep 27, 2015 5:02am Sep 27, 2015 5:02am
Quote
Yeah, I figured he sounded like a bit of a scammer, but thought I may as well ask you, just in case there was a chance he was on to something. There was a forum I used to visit often for property investing, where there was a guy who seemed like a real tosser, lots of bragging, but over time if you could ignore his attitude, it turned out he had some fairly interesting things to say. Anyhow, I'm new to all this but certainly not looking for a magic shortcut.

It's always the case. I have nothing against people who are selling something or mentoring someone, what I dislike is that some people like this are misleading beginners by overstating the benefits of that product (whether it's a course or a mentorship). This usually happens whenever there is some "secret" or a "myth" around that person, making other people think that he knows something very special, or that his method is very special. Another example o this is Darkstar in my opinion - there is nothing illegal in what he did though - and if you do a simple math he must have made a LOT of money from that book. It was all about sounding very fancy, knowledgeable and having a secret method to make money in the market and calling it a special name order flow trading. I mean, back then I was already trading FX for a bank but I still bought a book out of curiousity. I didn't learn anything I wouldn't already know and the book was super expensive. I am sure there was a lot of beginners who benefited by reading that book, but I doubt that anyone with serious 3-5y of experience at the time of reading would learn something he wouldn't know before. There is a whole huge business of ripping up beginner FX traders, and I am sure many people got very rich by doing that.

Quote
I've ordered some of the books you suggested and I'm trying to practice, learn, try new things, until I find something that works for me. I did well with the August flash crash, or whatever they're calling it, but only because it was so violent that it was impossible to mistake the direction. Trying to follow any trend subtler than a total crash hasn't worked for me yet. Haha. But I'll get there

  • #75
  • Sep 27, 2015 5:07am Sep 27, 2015 5:07am
Quoting katrooo
{quote} And C, with regards to your own coding, I do really recommend you take your destiny in your hands, it's never too late to learn new things whatever it might be. Imagine that you are able to implement your new ideas on the spot, without asking your coder and without explaining him all the details
Yep...you have nailed it. I need to stop stuffing about and do something about it. :-)
  • #76
  • Sep 27, 2015 5:47am Sep 27, 2015 5:47am
Hello all!

I am new to the trading and am looking around the web, trying to find interesting things to read before I commit myself to any investments. ATM I have begun with a practice account at Etoro and MetaTrader. AND I discovered forexfactory, this is the first thread I read, and I am very happy with the info the experienced traders are sharing here.

U have got my attention!
  • #77
  • Sep 27, 2015 6:16am Sep 27, 2015 6:16am
Quoting katrooo
{quote} hey NT, yeah I use interactive brokers as well, but use them for more of a long-term investing stuff in stocks, ETFs etc. Honestly I find their platform ridiculous, it just feels to be soo bad, I couldn't even understand how to trade FX from that. So my thinking was that I would open up a different account with different broker for FX trading only. So you are normally using IB for FX and even running algos on that?
Yeah, I use IB for both long-term investing (low-cost ETFs) and short-term trading (FX and futures) at the moment. I really like the fact that when I login I can see everything right there in front of me, both long-term and short-term performance. And I can trade just about anything with them - the choice of instruments is massive.

I know what you mean about the platform though. Man, it took me forever to get used to it But I'm stubborn, so stuck with it and now I think it's great. Bloody steep learning curve but very powerful when you get used to it. I trade mostly on the chart, but sometimes in the BookTrader when I'm in low-timeframe scalping mode.

I only use NinjaTrader for analysis at the moment, not for trading. That's mostly because I'm a tightwad and don't want to fork out a grand for a live licence. But one day I might open an account with NT's new brokerage service and gradually shift my short-term trading to Ninja. The thing that really sucks about IB's platform is that you can't code your own indicators or EAs
You reap what you sow.
  • #78
  • Edited 8:57am Sep 27, 2015 7:30am | Edited 8:57am
Hi katrooo,

1) There are usually big movements of price during the first seconds after major news release, huge volumes must be involved. My suspicion is that some big players (hedge funds/banks) are using autoclick software and entering the market in case of substantial difference between forecast and actual. Is it really so? If no then what is the reason for these spikes?

2) Has information from CME/COT reports any merit? Do you know any successful institutional traders who are relying on futures volumes data?
  • #79
  • Sep 27, 2015 8:17am Sep 27, 2015 8:17am
All sound advice, though I take issue with 6&7. With six, there is no harm in knowing macroeconomic fundamentals, but not knowing is not likely to have any adverse affect on a day trader who trades from patterns on charts and so from a purely technical perspective. I would even say cluttering your thoughts with too much surplus knowledge will be detrimental. Concentrate 100% on your charts, pay attention to big economic news releases, and forget about everything else.

Number 7. There is nothing wrong with trading off small time frames, in fact, with markets moving all the time, most traders end up capturing 5% of the potential number of pips on offer in any one day, if they are lucky, because they ignore the small time frames, and when I say small, I am talking about 1m and less. You simply cannot capture the majority of the moves on anything smaller than 5 mins with any degree of accuracy. Neither do you have to aim for a small number of pips. Enter trades on small time frames with a small stop loss ( 10-20 pips ) and then use the bigger time frames to determine support and resistance for an exit. By avoiding small time frames, you will miss out on a potentially large number of pips, and you will be forced to trade with stop losses which are too big. In today's extremely volatile markets, whether in forex or with indecis, small time frames are definitely the way to go.

All your other advice is spot on.
  • #80
  • Sep 27, 2015 10:34am Sep 27, 2015 10:34am
Quote
Hi katrooo, 1) There are usually big movements of price during the first seconds after major news release, huge volumes must be involved. My suspicion is that some big players (hedge funds/banks) are using autoclick software and entering the market in case of substantial difference between forecast and actual. Is it really so? If no then what is the reason for these spikes?

"Huge volumes must be involved" - that is not true, it's rather the opposite. Spikes around news releases / significant market events happen on low volume because the liquidity in the market dries up, i.e. you normally can't trade in size. All the market makers and sell-side eFX platforms widen the bid/offer spread before / during / shortly after the event which makes the price move abruptly even with small flow as there is a lot of "empty space" around spot price as market participants pull out their bids / offers from the market. The first spike itself is barely tradeable and normally on very little / no flow. The real flow comes only afterwards, when people put in the trades either against the spike or in the same direction. There is a moment in your trading career when you start to "feel" which market moves (whether it is post news release or not) are having huge flows behind and which ones do not. For example it happens many times that there is a decent move in the market and I talk to other people on the street (sales / traders from tier 1 banks) to find out what flows they see, and nobody is seeing anything / or very little, i.e. the move happened with very little flow and it was just an equation of lower liquidity and too little resistance on the other side of the move.

2) Has information from CME/COT reports any merit? Do you know any successful institutional traders who are relying on futures volumes data?

No I do not know any traders like that (that doesn't mean there are not some though). I am not even sure what exactly is in those reports, is it the positioning data? Like number of net short / net long contracts? If that's the thing yeah it is something I would look at, but I look at 100 different things at the same time. Having an idea of positioning in the market is important but there are some pitfalls to it, because there is no clear quantitative metrics which would give you a good indication of positioning in the market, it is very adhoc. It will only give you a partial picture, for example looking at futures positioning will give you an idea of how CTA hedge funds are positioned as they use futures a lot. But FX futures is a very small part of overall FX market, so it doesn't tell you anything about global macro hedge funds, real money, banks. My point is, I've never seen someone who would get an edge in the market by looking at market positioning data. And because estimating market positioning is a very qualitative skill rather than quantitative one has to consider it with pinch of salt. But it can be a good thing to look at in your thinking process, especially if you are a contrarian by nature.
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