Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 313 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,241
  • Sep 25, 2015 11:29am Sep 25, 2015 11:29am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hey Daniel, Take a look at my attachment and the green trendlines. Last green TL is the last valid one connecting the latest 2 valleys. There is another trendline in green that you missed. Cheers, Alfonso {image}
hi alfonso
regarding the image on the quoted post, is the trendline number 4 still valid if in case price drops printing lower low? i mean, the second peak formed is looks like a CP pattern. as per the rules, we are allowed to draw the trendlines by connecting 2 peaks/2 valleys?

Sants
  • #6,242
  • Sep 25, 2015 1:55pm Sep 25, 2015 1:55pm
Quoting Sants
{quote} hi alfonso regarding the image on the quoted post, is the trendline number 4 still valid if in case price drops printing lower low? i mean, the second peak formed is looks like a CP pattern. as per the rules, we are allowed to draw the trendlines by connecting 2 peaks/2 valleys? Sants
Hi Sants,The trendline 4 is not valid. It can become valid if price goes down and makes a lower low.Cheers,Daniel
  • #6,243
  • Sep 26, 2015 6:30am Sep 26, 2015 6:30am
I've done an analysis on the GBPJPY, but I'm not sure how to act:

The monthly is up but supply is in control, the supply zone (CP) has been tested twice, a potential demand zone is coming up if supply is broken (violet lines).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 42 KB


Weekly demand has been touched and is in control right now, the monthly trend line is not far away so I think we are in confluence with that line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 41 KB


Daily demand is in control rigth now, it is nested in the weekly demand zone, which is nested in a potential monthly demand zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 47 KB


Are we allowed to take longs or do we have to wait until the monthly supply zone is broken or a monthly demand level is touched?
  • #6,244
  • Sep 26, 2015 12:28pm Sep 26, 2015 12:28pm
Alfonso can you please confirm if these are the good levels of SD. Thank you. The first one is weekly, the second is daily just switched from weekly to daily did not draw SD zones differently.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 76 KB
  • #6,245
  • Sep 26, 2015 12:41pm Sep 26, 2015 12:41pm
I will post this starting monthly chart down do daily.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 49 KB
  • #6,246
  • Sep 26, 2015 2:31pm Sep 26, 2015 2:31pm
Can someone explain to me how the pending orders supposedly left at these S+D level's manage to make the market move? The reason i ask is because i was under the impression that only market orders have the capability to move the market due to them removing liquidity from one side of the market, whereas pending orders add liquidity to the market.
  • #6,247
  • Sep 27, 2015 4:55am Sep 27, 2015 4:55am
Quoting Techanalyst
Alfonso can you please confirm if these are the good levels of SD. Thank you. The first one is weekly, the second is daily just switched from weekly to daily did not draw SD zones differently. {image} {image}
None of those zones are valid, sorry. You are not following the rules at all, you should read first lesson and watch a few of the videos. I can't comment on the other post you uploaded has the same problem.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,248
  • Edited 6:47am Sep 27, 2015 5:31am | Edited 6:47am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} None of those zones are valid, sorry. You are not following the rules at all, you should read first lesson and watch a few of the videos. I can't comment on the other post you uploaded has the same problem. Cheers, Alfonso
hi alfonso
Regarding my previous post and a question that i cant find the answer by the videos or even the rules:

Aside from trendline broke for confirm a zone, is a zone valid as a zone if it is violating the opposing zone/violating the valid opposing zone?
I mean, is a demand zone will be called a demand zone if it is oppose a supply zone that only formed by imbalances structure (Reversal or CP pattern) or the supply zone needs to be confirmated like it has to break ascending trendline or opposing a validdemand zone previously?

sorry i ask this question over and over again, i cant find the exact answer by the videos or webinar

Sants

EDIT::::by the image below, i can say, you were considering the yellow rectangle as demand after it took out the red hollow rectangle which is the supply CP pattern although the supply CP pattern only formed by imbalances structure alone (unvalidated zone such as violating opposing zone or TL)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 313 KB
  • #6,249
  • Sep 27, 2015 7:26am Sep 27, 2015 7:26am
Alfonso, would it be easier for beginners to trade SD from valleys more then as from CPs?
Did you ever count win rates of valleys/CP. Is the win rate from SD at valleys higher then from CPs?
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  • #6,250
  • Sep 27, 2015 1:24pm Sep 27, 2015 1:24pm
Quoting Bernhard
Alfonso, would it be easier for beginners to trade SD from valleys more then as from CPs? Did you ever count win rates of valleys/CP. Is the win rate from SD at valleys higher then from CPs?
I've not tracked the win rate between valleys/peaks and CPs. CPs are VERY powerful patterns, VERY! Ignoring them is not a good idea. Beginners can start with valleys and peaks, but CPs are a very important piece of the supply and demand puzzle and how price moves when treding.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,251
  • Sep 27, 2015 1:27pm Sep 27, 2015 1:27pm
Quoting Sants
{quote} hi alfonso Regarding my previous post and a question that i cant find the answer by the videos or even the rules: Aside from trendline broke for confirm a zone, is a zone valid as a zone if it is violating the opposing zone/violating the valid opposing zone? I mean, is a demand zone will be called a demand zone if it is oppose a supply zone that only formed by imbalances structure (Reversal or CP pattern) or the supply zone needs to be confirmated like it has to break ascending trendline or opposing a validdemand zone previously? sorry i...
I didn't understand your question well I believe. The rules are VERY specific.

A potential demand zone will be confirmed as demand if it removes an opposing supply zone or breaks a descending trendline. There is nothing else to it. The opposing zone can be a peak/valley or a CP, it does not matter. It can also do both things at the time.

There is nothing else to add to it, it's just that, you say it's not mentioned anywhere in the rules, but that's the core rule! That's why I don't understand your point.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,252
  • Sep 27, 2015 1:28pm Sep 27, 2015 1:28pm
Quoting Sants
{quote} hi alfonso regarding the image on the quoted post, is the trendline number 4 still valid if in case price drops printing lower low? i mean, the second peak formed is looks like a CP pattern. as per the rules, we are allowed to draw the trendlines by connecting 2 peaks/2 valleys? Sants
I clicked on the quoted post and I don't see any H4 chart, just a daily chart sorry It's better than when you quote a post you paste the image again, sorry
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,253
  • Sep 27, 2015 1:31pm Sep 27, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting dvarrin
{quote} Yes, I've forgotten them. Thank you Alfonso! And the last one is very important for the analysis of price action now ;-) About my mistake of the size of the monthly demand zone, where I've included the wick, can we say that, if we follow the Sequence and Realignment rules, price should also reach a weekly demand zone. In this case, price is "perhaps" at monthly demand, but price has not reached a weekly demand zone, so it is probably not a good place to open a trade. I've an other question about nested zone. If we trade the Sequence and...
You never know where price is going to stop, so if you are waiting for confirmation, that's all you need to know, that you are within the timeframe where you expect price to realign. If a new imbalance is created that takes out an opposing zone and no HTF supply is in control or flip zone, then you can try a long since the bigger picture is in that direction.

Regarding your second question, if the demand zone you want to enter is nested (touching or within) a bigger timeframe, that's enough to take a trade.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,254
  • Sep 27, 2015 1:39pm Sep 27, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} None of those zones are valid, sorry. You are not following the rules at all, you should read first lesson and watch a few of the videos. I can't comment on the other post you uploaded has the same problem. Cheers, Alfonso
Sure thanks for letting me know. I will watch videos and will be posting charts after I learn SD zones.
  • #6,255
  • Sep 27, 2015 1:40pm Sep 27, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} You never know where price is going to stop, so if you are waiting for confirmation, that's all you need to know, that you are within the timeframe where you expect price to realign. If a new imbalance is created that takes out an opposing zone and no HTF supply is in control or flip zone, then you can try a long since the bigger picture is in that direction. Regarding your second question, if the demand zone you want to enter is nested (touching or within) a bigger timeframe, that's enough to take a trade. Cheers, Alfonso
I will also learn to follow the rules of your strategy.
  • #6,256
  • Sep 27, 2015 5:34pm Sep 27, 2015 5:34pm
Quoting Bernhard
Alfonso, would it be easier for beginners to trade SD from valleys more then as from CPs? Did you ever count win rates of valleys/CP. Is the win rate from SD at valleys higher then from CPs?
The only thing I can add to this is that I have yet to find hard fast rules for what a CP is. All of the videos mention "obvious" peaks and valleys. None of the videos mention exactly what or how a level is termed "CP." Does anyone have more insight into this?

Thanks,
Stockguy
  • #6,257
  • Sep 27, 2015 8:28pm Sep 27, 2015 8:28pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I didn't understand your question well I believe. The rules are VERY specific. A potential demand zone will be confirmed as demand if it removes an opposing supply zone or breaks a descending trendline. There is nothing else to it. The opposing zone can be a peak/valley or a CP, it does not matter. It can also do both things at the time. There is nothing else to add to it, it's just that, you say it's not mentioned anywhere in the rules, but that's the core rule! That's why I don't understand your point. Cheers, Alfonso
Hi alfonsoSorry if my question is unclear. Let me try to explain it again 1. We know there're 2 types of zone: a potential zone and a valid tradeable zone. -Potential zone is a zone that just created under imbalances structure like cp and peak valley and thats it. Whenever we met imbalances we can create a potential zone-valid and tradeable zone is a potential zone which violate the opposong zone or break TL.Yes i know the rules for a potential demand zone created by imbalances structure like cp or peak and valley could be valid and tradeable after it oppose supply zone. One of my big question, is the potential demand zone needs to oppose a valid and tradeable supply zone or it just needs to oppose the potential supply zone that created by imbalances structure alone to be called a valid tradeable demand zone?I hope you get my point Sants
  • #6,258
  • Sep 27, 2015 8:48pm Sep 27, 2015 8:48pm
Can we trade this strategy on Charts 5M,15M,30M,1H, or do we have to go on to Monthly, weekly and daily charts?
  • #6,259
  • Sep 28, 2015 1:10am Sep 28, 2015 1:10am
Quoting Techanalyst
Can we trade this strategy on Charts 5M,15M,30M,1H, or do we have to go on to Monthly, weekly and daily charts?
The strategy works on any timeframe combination. Just a warning, make it work on a monthly/weekly/daily combination for quite a few months, and ONLY then switch to lower timeframes, practice for quite a few more months on lower timeframes before you go live. Just a warning, the lower the timeframe the more levels you will locate, the more losses you will have and the more experienced as a trader you will need to be. Not only on supply on demand but on any strategy, the faster the car you drive the higher the likelihood of having an accident.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,260
  • Sep 28, 2015 1:11am Sep 28, 2015 1:11am
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} The only thing I can add to this is that I have yet to find hard fast rules for what a CP is. All of the videos mention "obvious" peaks and valleys. None of the videos mention exactly what or how a level is termed "CP." Does anyone have more insight into this? Thanks, Stockguy
There are dozens of videos talking about CPs, you need to watch the videos and learn about them. It's just another pattern, a VERY important one.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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