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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #1,881
  • Sep 17, 2015 6:21am Sep 17, 2015 6:21am
IMHO the first thing to effect a sustained rise in prices above the current range will be budgetary problems in Saudi Arabia.

When they have to start borrowing to fund their country's operations they will take a hard look at why....
Any prevailing unrest in the region will affect their thinking, but if things remain calm we should see coordinated attempts to reduce the over-supply.

So that may mean current pricing will continue into 2017.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #1,882
  • Edited 12:23pm Sep 19, 2015 6:03am | Edited 12:23pm
@xolovox. NatGas

My technical view .


The Monthly Close of August 09 is the recent flip point in this instrument imho, its where the battle currently is..The 10MMA has got form for large short orders..
the market has condensed for a number of months so a big move could be forth coming..

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The Weekly bar has just closed in the bottom 90% of its range and closed below the August 09 close and the recent range but it hasn't broken the overall Monthly range. The Weekly 10/20 ma seems to be holding heavy short orders though the current axe is from the Monthly 10ma..

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The Daily TF just confirms the above technicals imho ... I would only be looking for shorts from the Weekly and Monthly triggers if I was to trade this instrument though currently its not in my watch-list because of the last 8 Monthly closes = confusion.

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Its only theorising but i I hope it helps

Thanks ..Ja
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,883
  • Sep 19, 2015 9:29am Sep 19, 2015 9:29am
Quoting j4d
... and fundamental view
Did I missed this somewhere?
  • #1,884
  • Sep 19, 2015 10:17am Sep 19, 2015 10:17am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Did I missed this somewhere?
lol..Hey Suntrader.. Sorry I didn't involve the Fundamentals on NG..slip of text ...My post has been amended..

My technicals show short side potential while I know we are at the time of year where demand for NG could start to rise..

I'm not currently trading NG because of various possible scenarios but xolovox asked for my view ..

more info

http://uk.investing.com/news/commodi...-14---18-68503

I hope your having a cool Weekend
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,885
  • Sep 19, 2015 11:48am Sep 19, 2015 11:48am
Quoting j4d
{quote} lol..Hey Suntrader.. Sorry I didn't involve the Fundamentals on NG..slip of text ...My post has been amended.. My technicals show short side potential while I know we are at the time of year where demand for NG could start to rise.. I'm not currently trading NG because of various possible scenarios but xolovox asked for my view .. more info http://uk.investing.com/news/commodi...-14---18-68503 I hope your having a cool Weekend


But actually no I am not having a "cool" weekend. It is always hot here in South Florida.
  • #1,886
  • Sep 19, 2015 12:45pm Sep 19, 2015 12:45pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} But actually no I am not having a "cool" weekend. It is always hot here in South Florida.

Lol..good for you.. its wet and stormy here in Herts, UK..our summer has been a let down to say the least.. I'm feeling slightly envious..

I hope your having a peaceful Weekend...


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Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,887
  • Sep 19, 2015 1:14pm Sep 19, 2015 1:14pm
Quoting j4d
{quote} Lol..good for you.. its wet and stormy here in Herts, UK..our summer has been a let down to say the least.. I'm feeling slightly envious.. I hope your having a peaceful Weekend...
Didn't say we don't get rain. Actually today is the first sunshine in the last four. But its always hot regardless. Peaceful I guess. Have a good one.


Inserted Video
  • #1,888
  • Sep 21, 2015 1:11am Sep 21, 2015 1:11am
Quoting j4d
{quote} lol..Hey Suntrader.. Sorry I didn't involve the Fundamentals on NG..slip of text ...My post has been amended.. My technicals show short side potential while I know we are at the time of year where demand for NG could start to rise.. I'm not currently trading NG because of various possible scenarios but xolovox asked for my view .. more info http://uk.investing.com/news/commodi...-14---18-68503 I hope your having a cool Weekend
Thank you for your reply. It was helpful.
  • #1,889
  • Sep 21, 2015 3:54am Sep 21, 2015 3:54am
Interesting article about oil supply. Looks like the Saudis are already in a dilemma.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...ch-Longer.html
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #1,890
  • Sep 21, 2015 4:01am Sep 21, 2015 4:01am
Quoting Exodus
Interesting article about oil supply. Looks like the Saudis are already in a dilemma. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...ch-Longer.html
Good article. Thanks for sharing
  • #1,891
  • Sep 22, 2015 7:52am Sep 22, 2015 7:52am
here's an article that just came out today.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Price...il-Prices.html

but don't know if this was typo.....but too coincidental

The latest data from the EIA for the week ending on September 11 shows that production is down to 9.11 million barrels per day (mb/d), which is about 0.5 mb/d lower than the peak exhibited in April of this year
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,892
  • Sep 22, 2015 8:26am Sep 22, 2015 8:26am
Quoting gnomoneey
here's an article that just came out today. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Price...il-Prices.html but don't know if this was typo.....but too coincidental The latest data from the EIA for the week ending on September 11 shows that production is down to 9.11 million barrels per day (mb/d), which is about 0.5 mb/d lower than the peak exhibited in April of this year
Thanks gnomoneey, how reliable is that site? its attempts of trying to get me to "work with Martin Tiller" make me suspicious as it reeks of "work from home" scams
  • #1,893
  • Sep 22, 2015 9:16am Sep 22, 2015 9:16am
Oil on the turn? To me it looks like a strong possibility from a technical perspective. Any thoughts?
  • #1,894
  • Sep 22, 2015 11:30am Sep 22, 2015 11:30am
Quoting Exodus
Interesting article about oil supply. Looks like the Saudis are already in a dilemma. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...ch-Longer.html

Thanks for the link E...
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,895
  • Sep 22, 2015 11:58am Sep 22, 2015 11:58am
Quoting S.McDuck
{quote} Thanks gnomoneey, how reliable is that site? its attempts of trying to get me to "work with Martin Tiller" make me suspicious as it reeks of "work from home" scams
I'm just posting news that came from ff
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,896
  • Sep 22, 2015 12:32pm Sep 22, 2015 12:32pm
Quoting gnomoneey
here's an article that just came out today. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Price...il-Prices.html but don't know if this was typo.....but too coincidental The latest data from the EIA for the week ending on September 11 shows that production is down to 9.11 million barrels per day (mb/d), which is about 0.5 mb/d lower than the peak exhibited in April of this year
Hey GN ..Thanks for the EIA link ..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,897
  • Sep 23, 2015 3:34am Sep 23, 2015 3:34am
What do you think about triangle on oil?

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  • #1,898
  • Sep 23, 2015 10:46am Sep 23, 2015 10:46am
time to go to 44 first..., then 38 ..., hopefully...
  • #1,899
  • Sep 26, 2015 8:22pm Sep 26, 2015 8:22pm
The WTI price narrowing is going to result in a push much lower.
Turn around season will not demand as much as the last 12 months.
Supplies will grow as forecasts call for reduction - going to be immensely bearish.

Retest of 38 low soon and in my opinion a push below 38.

Playing the $35 Nov WTI Puts on nymex. Accumulating a bunch of them on days when WTI is up the last 2 weeks.

The options go from 5 to 20 cents when WTI is volatile.......if WTI falls much lower those options will rise by 10 fold
  • #1,900
  • Sep 26, 2015 8:24pm Sep 26, 2015 8:24pm
Natural Gas futures are very bearish. Nothing new...been this way for the last several years.

There is going to be a big buying spree next week as we get near 2.50
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