Non mechanical trading using pattern recognition and experience

I reset the explorer. Im going to use ONLY one position and not try some other shenanigans.

Time to restate assumptions:

1. I will use one position
2. Never enter on SR
3. If you collect enough data in any natural system and graph the data, patterns emerge. Price is a natural system, just like bacteria in a dish, just like air currents, just like the flow of a river.
4. The trained human brain computes enough operations to perceive the patterns of price.
5. I will look at my trades all the time when they are open.
6. The market will show me what is correct and what is incorrect, NOT my analysis.
7. The news is a part of it all.
8. Existence is not itself divided into frames of time. "Time" is a human idea, developed, limited by and existing in industrial civilization.
9. Trade what IS happening, not what you would WANT to happen or what you are HOPEING to happen.
10. Use skill, not emotions.
11. Civilization is a demented state of being. Civilization cannot understand natural systems. Civilization is a part of the only existing natural system that encompass everything that has ever existed. All prices are functions of civilization and hence the all existing natural system of everything, even though its demented.

Ok i kept my promise, ONLY one position. Im done trading for today.

Tomorrow i will trade all day. Think i will raise my lot size somewhat since i have more time to focus.

When people read "Pattern recognition" they seem to mean complex patterns, breakouts, head and shoulders, cups, batman and what ever. That not at all what im talking about. Im talking about REALLY simple stuff. The hard thing is not seeing these levels but JUDGING them. Meaning knowing IN ADVANCE what people USUALLY do when they seem that sort of pattern based on that sort of levels.

I cant here real easy explain what its about, since its not expressed in terms of natural language but in terms of numbers.

In a way the world market is really honest: It CANT fake. What happens, happens. Of course its ALL fake, but within its own fake world of game rules, it cant fake. All it can do is increase or decrease from time X to time Y.

So now we are moved and tomorrow i will be trading. Fiberoptics in the wall and all.

One position at a time is the name of the game. Its open till its done, win or loss. E/G is the instrument.

Hi Yaed,

I've read your other thread. I intend to follow this one and maybe contribute. I like your idea of trading one pair. I have a day job so can't follow the market closely all the times. I try to trade on 1 hour and 4 hour candles though I rather try to find levels in which I expect market to turn. Then the timeframe is not that really important.

Good luck and hope you do well.

Im reading platos "The republic" while trading so maybe im inspired by that. Anyway...

Either historical price matters or it dont. If historical price dont matter we dont need the charts since it contains (incomplete) information about historical price levels at specific times. So if we are to use charts, we must assume historical price matters.

One question that to me seem important then is the age of this information. It seems reasonable to assume new data is better the old, since opinions, decisions and politics probably will change during the passage of time. Then it follows that it seems reasonable to look for turning points. In other words if price if increasing, its important to pinpoint when it starts to decrease and vice versa. Furthermore that approach seem reasonable since after a while price "gets tired" and goes the other way and the most opurtune moment to get in would be in the beginning.

Pro memoria
I havent done badly last week. I have avoided great risks so my psyche is becoming hardened too losses without insuing panic. Thats pretty cool. Though i havent been making anything either. I have been pondering why this is. I think i should use H1 as the slower timeframe.

Also i should remember not to work 14 hours a day because everything turns to shit if i do.

Also i should remember that SR is AREAS:



Af far as i can i will try to avoid taking on any more shifts at work next week. If that works i think i have 3 days to trade.

Its not about knowing its about having the guts to guess.

Because we dont know shit:

Honestly i dont think there is "timeframes." I dont think that the latest 60 minutes of price data doesnt matter, even if you are thinking to hold your positions for a month. I agree SOMETIMES, lets say 90% of the time price wouldnt matter if you are looking to hold for 30 days. But at a time like right now in this instrument, what happens DOES matter, A LOT.

Here is why:

The thing i forgot: Dont close because of projected balance
I just thought of a important thing that i forgot to write down: Closing a position should not be a decision based on projected balance. I mean that when you close the position is because you think it wont get any better within what ever is the chosen timeframe. I mean that you close it when its not working out any more, and you DONT close it because "you made enough" or because "you lost enough" or because you are at + on the day or what ever.

To illustrate what i mean i will take a practical example: A friend calls me and asks how im doing for the day. He asks if a have a target like: +1% per day or what ever. No not really is what i answer, i try to do as good as i can. Why? Because if my target is +1% and im at -0.5% for the day, i might need to increase my risk in order to get to +1% before the day ends. And thats a recipe for disaster, increasing lot size when you are loosing. Why? Because when im loosing its not because "the market is strange" its me that are strange. The market is pretty much the same all the time. And i stay strange for several hours at a time, probably until the day ends. So if im strange and loosing, if i keep to a day target, that means i will probably loose even more.

Several of my conceptions about trading has changed A LOT over the years. There is one though that is still there: If you know how to trade and you do youre thing, you will make money EVERY day. Meaning the market pretty much stay the same. Or at least it pretty much stay the same until the collapse of fiat currencies, which might happen any week but probably not until 2018. Its probably be dramatic but according to my calculations it will go from fucked up to chaotic in about 4 weeks. And thats gonna make 2008 look like kindergarden.