Does taking opposite trades work? | Forex Factory

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Does taking opposite trades work?

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 22, 2015 3:18pm Sep 22, 2015 3:18pm

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We all know that it's not easy to make steady profit in forex market, but its very easy to loose your entire balance! are you agree with me? specially for newbies.


All right, here is the scenario, we have two traders, and one of them is newbie, they start trading in in 1st day of the month, the newbie trader tell another trader what he/she does, and the second trader act exactly opposite, I'm really curious to know the results at the end of the month! what do you think? I'm willing to try it once...:nerd:
  • #2
  • Sep 22, 2015 6:34pm Sep 22, 2015 6:34pm
Quoting She1
{image} We all know that it's not easy to make steady profit in forex market, but its very easy to loose your entire balance! are you agree with me? specially for newbies. All right, here is the scenario, we have two traders, and one of them is newbie, they start trading in in 1st day of the month, the newbie trader tell another trader what he/she does, and the second trader act exactly opposite, I'm really curious to know the results at the end of the month! what do you think? I'm willing to try it once...:nerd:
Reversing a losing strategy won't make it profitable. There are countless of threads about this here on FF ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #3
  • Edited 9:30pm Sep 22, 2015 8:59pm | Edited 9:30pm
Quoting She1
{image} We all know that it's not easy to make steady profit in forex market, but its very easy to loose your entire balance! are you agree with me? specially for newbies. All right, here is the scenario, we have two traders, and one of them is newbie, they start trading in in 1st day of the month, the newbie trader tell another trader what he/she does, and the second trader act exactly opposite, I'm really curious to know the results at the end of the month! what do you think? I'm willing to try it once...:nerd:
Please tell the first trader to listen the forex part of financial radio programmes, in order that the second trader only need to buy/sell the currency wasn't mentioned in the radio programmes. Finally, both of you can earn a lot (I discover this in Hongkong.)
Normally, in Hongkong, they would mention 7 major currencies : EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, AUD, NZD and CAD.
  • #4
  • Sep 22, 2015 9:05pm Sep 22, 2015 9:05pm
Quoting She1
All right, here is the scenario, we have two traders, and one of them is newbie, they start trading in in 1st day of the month, the newbie trader tell another trader what he/she does, and the second trader act exactly opposite, I'm really curious to know the results at the end of the month! what do you think?
If you are saying that both traders take the exact opposite entry but are allowed to have different exits then its possible for both to be profitable.

If the trades are completely opposite in both entry and exit then you would obviously find that when one wins the other loses.
  • #5
  • Sep 22, 2015 9:45pm Sep 22, 2015 9:45pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} Reversing a losing strategy won't make it profitable. There are countless of threads about this here on FF ...
but it doesn't make sense! i buy EURUSD, then you sell, EURUSD will drops, i close it, you close it too, I've lost money, you have made profit
  • #6
  • Sep 22, 2015 9:50pm Sep 22, 2015 9:50pm
the newbie trader let's his losses grow, because he doesn't wan to lose money. he/she take the profits sooner, and... all the actions are positive in other side,
may be no body has tested reversing a strategy with two human!
  • #7
  • Sep 22, 2015 9:56pm Sep 22, 2015 9:56pm
Quoting roger44
{quote} Please tell the first trader to listen the forex part of financial radio programmes, in order that the second trader only need to buy/sell the currency wasn't mentioned in the radio programmes. Finally, both of you can earn a lot (I discover this in Hongkong.) Normally, in Hongkong, they would mention 7 major currencies : EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, AUD, NZD and CAD.
are you kidding, or your serious! if the first traders uses one of those bullshit indicators, i think the second one's profit is guaranteed
  • #8
  • Sep 22, 2015 9:57pm Sep 22, 2015 9:57pm
Quoting She1
the newbie trader let's his losses grow, because he doesn't wan to lose money. he/she take the profits sooner, and... all the actions are positive in other side, may be no body has tested reversing a strategy with two human!
Why even require two people to act it out?

Just take a look at what doesn't work and do the opposite.
  • #9
  • Sep 22, 2015 9:59pm Sep 22, 2015 9:59pm
Quoting Atokys
{quote} If you are saying that both traders take the exact opposite entry but are allowed to have different exits then its possible for both to be profitable. If the trades are completely opposite in both entry and exit then you would obviously find that when one wins the other loses.
Yes the trades are completely opposite in both entry and exit.
  • #10
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:05pm Sep 22, 2015 10:05pm
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Why even require two people to act it out? Just take a look at what doesn't work and do the opposite.
This way he/she still wants to make profit! because we lose money when we want to make profit!
  • #11
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:06pm Sep 22, 2015 10:06pm
Quoting She1
{quote} are you kidding, or your serious! if the first traders uses one of those bullshit indicators, i think the second one's profit is guaranteed
The radio presenter is from a bank.
******
The most importance is the newbie trader how to learn to correlate with the forex market (data, news and charts with different timeframes.) and how to react with (the path of his direction) ?
  • #12
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:11pm Sep 22, 2015 10:11pm
Quoting She1
{quote} This way he/she still wants to make profit! because we lose money when we want to make profit!
If a trader suffers from inner turmoil a profitable system will not change that.

Other than this, its possible to reverse engineer a profitable system based on what unprofitable traders do.
  • #13
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:20pm Sep 22, 2015 10:20pm
never counter trade
  • #14
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:30pm Sep 22, 2015 10:30pm
Quoting Atokys
{quote} If a trader suffers from inner turmoil a profitable system will not change that...
we suppose the second trader just acts against first one!


"other than this, its possible to reverse engineer a profitable system based on what unprofitable traders do"

We know that those traders doesn't following rules like a robot! mostly its emotion that makes they lose more money!
  • #15
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:38pm Sep 22, 2015 10:38pm
Quoting She1
{quote} we suppose the second trader just acts against second one!

We know that those traders doesn't following rules like a robot! mostly its emotion that makes they lose more money!
Maybe not following rules is also part of what you shouldn't do.

Anyway, what I meant was that you should observe what people do wrong and do the opposite.
  • #16
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:39pm Sep 22, 2015 10:39pm
Maybe they trade in a regular period with same amount (e.g. hourly on their own session about 10 times) for the first day and then wait for one of them (1st) can take profit to trade (one :1st earns , another one : 2nd does nothing). The total amount (capital + profit) gives to another one : 2nd to trade and wait for 2nd can take profit give the total amount to 1st and trade.
As they are doing opposite for a pair (e.g. EUR/USD) with a third currency (their local currency), one for EUR and another one for USD.
Is this what on your mind?
  • #17
  • Edited 11:09pm Sep 22, 2015 10:45pm | Edited 11:09pm
Quoting She1
{quote} Yes the trades are completely opposite in both entry and exit.
I can see a bit of a scientist in you She1. Let's for the purposes of explanation exclude frictional costs in this discussion. This is therefore how I see things.

If buying/selling in a zero sum game is a purely symmetrical sequence of events from buyers/sellers then there is no price movement. We have a perfect netting out effect. In this theoretical world, there are no winners and losers.

The momentum in price action is attributed to the fact that this symmetry in reality does not exist and that their is a constant enduring movement towards equilibrium at any point in time from altering supply/demand factors. The reason for the market is the recognition that opportunities arise in a closed system when there is disequilibrium....and therefore dis-equilibrium is to be encouraged as a form of re-distributing wealth, but with disequilibrium comes the two-headed symmetrical coin of reward and risk. In more mathematical terms this relates to drift away from (excursions) and towards (retracements) market equilibrium which statisticians get excited about...me included. Different entry timings from a host of different participants, increased supply from central bank interventions, differing demand expectations (eg. holding periods, number of participants), risk tolerances etc etc etc. creates market asymmetry (dis-equilibrium) which is an enduring imbalance and a never ending cycle of overshoots and undershoots.

The trick to trading is in capitalising on this dis-equilibrium in a consistent manner which is referred to as trading with an edge. This is what seperates net winners from net losers. There is no win win all round to this game and the battlefield either has winners or losers if you want to play in it. When you trade with an edge you are stealing this opportunity from other players in the market in this closed system. While at any given point in time we have total conservation of market forces when considering the entire system...and a nice fat ZERO....intramarket variance is what creates trade opportunity.
  • #18
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:50pm Sep 22, 2015 10:50pm
Quoting She1
{quote} but it doesn't make sense! i buy EURUSD, then you sell, EURUSD will drops, i close it, you close it too, I've lost money, you have made profit
As said earlier, this is a very old discussion ... and has been proved to be a loser in the long term.

The best way to look at this and do the exact opposite is to automate it ... That has been done on 1,000s of EAs (losers) and the results are always the same ... a loser won't make a winner by reversing the entries.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #19
  • Sep 22, 2015 11:25pm Sep 22, 2015 11:25pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} I can see a bit of a scientist in you She1. Let's for the purposes of explanation exclude frictional costs in this discussion. This is therefore how I see things. If buying/selling in a zero sum game is a purely symmetrical sequence of events from buyers/sellers then there is no price movement. We have a perfect netting out effect. In this theoretical world, there are no winners and losers. The momentum in price action is attributed to the fact that this symmetry in reality does not exist and that their is a constant enduring movement towards...
thank you very much for all your perfect answers!
but you know what, when i read your replies i get that i know nothing english language
  • #20
  • Sep 22, 2015 11:31pm Sep 22, 2015 11:31pm
Quoting She1
{quote} thank you very much for all your perfect answers! but you know what, when i read your replies i get that i know nothing english language
No worries She1. You are mastering a new language which is much more than I can achieve....so hat's off to you Sir. I am loving your queries as it heads right into the turf that interests me. Thanks for that.
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