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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #1,361
  • Sep 1, 2015 12:12pm Sep 1, 2015 12:12pm
Quoting Mattrix83
{quote} Thanks G, but u have no issue with the spreads during news? The widening is quite scary
Well, I trade longer term and I rarely take trades during major news, so the spreads have very little effect on me. I don't advise taking trades just before or during major news events as it increases risk and our goal is to reduce risk without reducing income. If the spread is too scary, I'll just take the trade tomorrow when it drops back to normal. Since I'm trying to hold these trades for 3 weeks or so, one day makes little difference. Thanks for the good question. -G
  • #1,362
  • Sep 1, 2015 7:01pm Sep 1, 2015 7:01pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Well, I trade longer term and I rarely take trades during major news, so the spreads have very little effect on me. I don't advise taking trades just before or during major news events as it increases risk and our goal is to reduce risk without reducing income. If the spread is too scary, I'll just take the trade tomorrow when it drops back to normal. Since I'm trying to hold these trades for 3 weeks or so, one day makes little difference. Thanks for the good question. -G
Hi G, thanks for the advice. Will then like to ask, if u took a trade at start of week, if there is a major news at the end of week, will you close ur trade or will you just tighten your stop? Thanks
  • #1,363
  • Sep 4, 2015 4:04am Sep 4, 2015 4:04am
Hi Graviton,

I wonder if you are in CHFJPY short. That would have been my very best trade lately and most likely the clearest trend of all.

IBO
  • #1,364
  • Sep 4, 2015 4:29pm Sep 4, 2015 4:29pm
Quoting Mattrix83
{quote} Hi G, thanks for the advice. Will then like to ask, if u took a trade at start of week, if there is a major news at the end of week, will you close ur trade or will you just tighten your stop? Thanks
Hi Mattrix. I ride through most news events as they rarely change the long term trend and I keep stops wide enough so that small news spikes wont take me out of the trade. I won't tighten my stop as that is the time I am most likely to be stopped out on a quick spike. However, if the news indicates a reversal of the underlying fundamentals that were driving the trend, then I will just exit the whole trade.

The goal is to bank enough profits from trading multi-lot with the trend while it runs so that when the trend does finally reverse, and all trends will eventually reverse, I'm still ahead for the trade overall. However, if looking ahead I think the news is so serious that it could cause me to lose a lot of profit if it goes against me, I will reduce exposure to it by taking some profits off prior to the news.

That's easy to do with multi-lot. Like, if I have 3 lots on and one is up 150 pips and one is up 70 pips and the latest is even, I'd take the 150 pip profit off before the news, reducing risk by 30%, or if I'm really concerned I might take the 150 pip profit lot and the 70 pip lot both off, reducing risk by 66% and banking a nice cash cushion in case the news swings the market against me on the 1 remaining lot that was even before the news. Most events will serve to reinforce the existing trend and I still get to participate in that with the one remaining lot on. If this is the event that reverses the long term trend, it's easier to get out of only one lot with an overall profit on the trade, even if I lose 30 or 50 pips on that one lot. As long as I made a profit overall on the entire trade, I'm a happy camper. I don't want to let a winner turn into a loser. I'd rather cash out with a few pips profit than take that chance. I can always re-enter later after things settle down if the news reinforces the existing trend.

That's roughly my approach to riding through news events. Best success. -G
  • #1,365
  • Sep 4, 2015 5:11pm Sep 4, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi Graviton, I wonder if you are in CHFJPY short. That would have been my very best trade lately and most likely the clearest trend of all. IBO

IBreakOut, I missed the Chf/Jpy move down because the weekly chart was not trending down until very recently. I did make some good pips on the reversal of the yen to increasing in value though, with shorts in AJ, CadJpy, EJ, and NJ. The reversal in the Yen is probably going to persist until the BOJ takes action to stop it, so I hope to make more pips in it going forward, and yes, I will enter the Chf/JPY short if it continues running down. That trade has tricky fundamentals though, since both the SNB and BOJ both want to lower the value of their currency. I won't fight a central bank if they decide to move against me. I'd rather take my small profit or loss and just move on to the next trade. If it looks like they are really serious, I might even reverse direction and trade with them, though I'm very wary of whipsaws.

Typically, I very rarely get whipsawed since the weekly trend doesn't change very fast, but that also keeps me from jumping in quickly on the beginning of a good daily trend like the Chf/Jpy short over the past couple weeks. This is one of those trade-offs that we have to make every day as traders. In this case it's reducing the risk of a whipsaw at the expense of a missed opportunity in a shorter timeframe trade. Currently, my thoughts are that missing an opportunity really costs me nothing. I miss hundreds in some market somewhere in the world everyday, but getting beat up with whipsaws is a risk I'd rather avoid. But, I will examine that thinking going forward. Perhaps I can improve on that balance a little bit to take advantage of a bit more opportunity while not increasing risk substantially. I'll give it some thought. Best success. -G
  • #1,366
  • Sep 8, 2015 2:42am Sep 8, 2015 2:42am
Hi Grav,

thanks for the explanation on CHF/JPY, it was logical. However if it was logical then I do not get the explanation why you traded for example short EUR/JPY. The weekly chart there also does not look bearish and if you said CHF/JPY is maybe not easy to trade because both CB wants to depreciate its currency, then trading EUR/JPY to the short side is also not easier if Japanese CB wants to depreciate its currency. So I do not see much difference in the pairs you traded and trading CHF/JPY. This question is a "real time" question as CHF is losing ground in some pairs again.

Cheers,
IBO
  • #1,367
  • Sep 8, 2015 10:00am Sep 8, 2015 10:00am
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi Grav, thanks for the explanation on CHF/JPY, it was logical. However if it was logical then I do not get the explanation why you traded for example short EUR/JPY. The weekly chart there also does not look bearish and if you said CHF/JPY is maybe not easy to trade because both CB wants to depreciate its currency, then trading EUR/JPY to the short side is also not easier if Japanese CB wants to depreciate its currency. So I do not see much difference in the pairs you traded and trading CHF/JPY. This question is a "real time" question as CHF is...
Yes, you make a good point. I was just following the weekly trends at the time. The trend directions have changed over the past week and I wouldn't recommend EJ now since shorter timeframe trends are now up. Also, after last week, the weekly trend on Chf/Jpy is now down, so it now satisfies my criteria for entry. I'm still a bit concerned about possible SNB actions, but that is very hard to predict. Thanks for the discussion. -G
  • #1,368
  • Sep 16, 2015 8:43am Sep 16, 2015 8:43am
Until the US Fed announces it's decision, I intend to be very careful. The goal is to stay calm and carry on. I wont be chasing moves just before or after the Fed decision. Just very solid trading as if nothing special is happening. Managing risks and keeping them low is the goal of the next two days. Best success. -G
  • #1,369
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:07am Sep 22, 2015 10:07am
Hi Graviton,

wanted to ask how it is going for you. To me it is more of a waiting game. I do not see many good opportunities. I still have trades running, but they are all long-term. No pairs fulfill the entry criteria. Which pairs are on your watchlist?

Good trading,
IBO
  • #1,370
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:38am Sep 22, 2015 10:38am
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi Graviton, wanted to ask how it is going for you. To me it is more of a waiting game. I do not see many good opportunities. I still have trades running, but they are all long-term. No pairs fulfill the entry criteria. Which pairs are on your watchlist? Good trading, IBO
I have some small positions on EU and EJ short right now. As you said, there's not many good entries at the moment. The USD is strong since the US economy is fairly good and everyone knows the next move by the US Fed will be to increase interest rates, which will further strengthen the USD. The Euro and Europe in general is in trouble. There are 350 million people in the middle east and millions would like to live in the rich northern Europe area. I expect millions more to head north and I'm not sure Europe can handle the migration. There are serious security risks with ISIS sympathizers embedded in the migration that will only become apparent over time. These are long term trades. I'll scan pairs later today to see if I see anything else meets my entry criteria, but I'd rather sit on my cash than take a bad entry, so I'm focusing on managing my risks at the moment. What are your thoughts? Best success! -G
  • #1,371
  • Sep 22, 2015 1:38pm Sep 22, 2015 1:38pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} I have some small positions on EU and EJ short right now. As you said, there's not many good entries at the moment. The USD is strong since the US economy is fairly good and everyone knows the next move by the US Fed will be to increase interest rates, which will further strengthen the USD. The Euro and Europe in general is in trouble. There are 350 million people in the middle east and millions would like to live in the rich northern Europe area. I expect millions more to head north and I'm not sure Europe can handle the migration. There...
Thanks for the answer! I have some long-term trades open which do not progress but also do not lose at the moment. The migration issue is tough and has long-term affects, but only time will tell what changes it will bring. At the moment I still have open trades, I got earlier some good entries vs. CHF. Those trades are good, as even if the pairs do not advance, the carry trade is always good to get! (this strategy has not much to do with the thread though) Still, I think it is not bad to sell CHF IMO as the SNB wants the currency to weaken and the economy is also not doing so good. But exactly because of SNB and because of the risk on/off role of CHF makes it a complicated currency to trade. I like these days actually the most the weakness of comdolls.
  • #1,372
  • Sep 22, 2015 7:06pm Sep 22, 2015 7:06pm
Quoting IBreakOut
{quote} Thanks for the answer! I have some long-term trades open which do not progress but also do not lose at the moment. The migration issue is tough and has long-term affects, but only time will tell what changes it will bring. At the moment I still have open trades, I got earlier some good entries vs. CHF. Those trades are good, as even if the pairs do not advance, the carry trade is always good to get! (this strategy has not much to do with the thread though) Still, I think it is not bad to sell CHF IMO as the SNB wants the currency to weaken...
Yes, the CHF is difficult to trade. The financial community wants to buy the CHF as a safe haven but the SNB wants to keep it low to improve Swiss trade. It will tend to drift higher in value until the SNB steps in and lowers it by printing lots of Swiss Francs and dumping them on the markets, buying mostly Euros with them, but they can buy other things as well. Some say the Franc is the number one export of the Swiss. Due to the volatility and many whipsaws in the markets right now, I'd advise being extra diligent in managing risks. Usually when we get unstable markets like this, it passes in a week or two and good trading opportunities follow. Be patient and watch those risks! -G
  • #1,373
  • Sep 24, 2015 12:39am Sep 24, 2015 12:39am
Hi G,

here is something I want to talk about with you. I checked carefully all charts and found 3 of them which soon might give signals based on the different time frames: EURAUD, GBPAUD and AUDJPY. Direction is clear. I am thinking about choosing only one European currency for diversification reasons and then the JPY. Hmmm my concern goes on with fundamentals. How do you see Aussie fundamentals? I do not see it as bad as CAD or NZD, but the recent weakness shows something else. This is an important question as I only like to enter those trades when the fundamentals clearly line up in my direction. It is clear to me that commodity prices are decreasing, but as I said, I think AUD economic reports are not as bad as other commodity currencies. Opinion?

PS: you got a red marking besides your name. You have deserved it.
  • #1,374
  • Edited 10:51am Sep 24, 2015 10:10am | Edited 10:51am
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi G, here is something I want to talk about with you. I checked carefully all charts and found 3 of them which soon might give signals based on the different time frames: EURAUD, GBPAUD and AUDJPY. Direction is clear. I am thinking about choosing only one European currency for diversification reasons and then the JPY. Hmmm my concern goes on with fundamentals. How do you see Aussie fundamentals? I do not see it as bad as CAD or NZD, but the recent weakness shows something else. This is an important question as I only like to enter those trades...
Excellent question IBO. I've been selling the Aussie on peaks and taking profits on dips for several months. Of course, the elephant in the room is decreasing demand for mined raw materials by China. I see no need to try to catch a falling knife there. As long as China has difficulties, so will the Aussie. It's likely the central RBA will cut rates early next year in February and probably again in May, maintaining downward pressure on the Aussie over the medium term. In some sense, the RBA is pushing on a rope. Even if the relative costs of Aussie raw materials are reduced by a lower AUD, demand is not expected to increase until China regains it's footing.

With that said, I consider the Australian economy strong and well managed overall. I have no doubt that when the demand for it's commodities returns, it's currency will reverse and regain much of it's fall. I can't say exactly when that will occur because I can't predict how long it will take China to right the ship of their economy. Overall I don't intend to try to call the bottom but rather just trade what I see as long as it is in general agreement with the fundamentals. If the fundamentals reverse, I will sit on the sidelines until my entry criteria agree. Thanks for the question. Now that my health issues have improved, I'm encouraging more discussion in this thread. Best success! -G
  • #1,375
  • Sep 24, 2015 12:56pm Sep 24, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Excellent question IBO. I've been selling the Aussie on peaks and taking profits on dips for several months. Of course, the elephant in the room is decreasing demand for mined raw materials by China. I see no need to try to catch a falling knife there. As long as China has difficulties, so will the Aussie. It's likely the central RBA will cut rates early next year in February and probably again in May, maintaining downward pressure on the Aussie over the medium term. In some sense, the RBA is pushing on a rope. Even if the relative costs...
Thanks for the update on Aussie fundamentals, did not know about those rate cut plans. Surely, they will push the Aussie more down.

Well, you should first care about health and only comes forex!
  • #1,376
  • Sep 28, 2015 8:12pm Sep 28, 2015 8:12pm
Thanks IBO. I've been having quite good fortune lately simply buying the strongest and selling the weakest currencies. Using a good chart app something like this: http://megatrendfx.com/additional-fo...eter-indicator

This one is free, but there are several that can be purchased. I just look at the longer time frame charts. Mainly the daily, but I don't want to go directly against the weekly or H4. Best Success. -G
  • #1,377
  • Oct 13, 2015 9:49am Oct 13, 2015 9:49am
Hi G,

wanted to ask what you are up these days and how you organise your day. I believe it is when you have a lot of time for learning and analysing. At least for me most pairs are either ranging or in transition period for trend changes. How do you see that? I even analysed some exotics to find some good opportunities as there are so few real good trade setups to work with. Maybe I look around a bit for commodities too.

And of course, there are always some good books to read.

Cheers,
IBO
  • #1,378
  • Oct 24, 2015 5:14pm Oct 24, 2015 5:14pm
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi G, wanted to ask what you are up these days and how you organise your day. I believe it is when you have a lot of time for learning and analysing. At least for me most pairs are either ranging or in transition period for trend changes. How do you see that? I even analysed some exotics to find some good opportunities as there are so few real good trade setups to work with. Maybe I look around a bit for commodities too. And of course, there are always some good books to read. Cheers, IBO
Hey IBO. I'm always working on something. I've been reading some articles today myself. I'm still trading the same system. When I have no trades to take, I read and study. EChf short was my best trade last week. I went flat before the weekend to lock in some profits. I'll be right back at it when the markets open next week. Hope things are going well for you. -G
  • #1,379
  • Nov 10, 2015 7:36am Nov 10, 2015 7:36am
EU is crashing. Down 400 pips in the last couple weeks, down 800 pips in the last month.
  • #1,380
  • Nov 10, 2015 9:01am Nov 10, 2015 9:01am
My best trades at the moment are ECad, EG and EU short. There are good fundamental reasons for the Euro crash. The ECB wants the Euro down to stimulate the economy. The US economy is getting stronger with good unemployment numbers and good housing numbers. There are millions of poor people migrating from the middle east to northern Europe. Note that there are about 300 million people in the middle east. Most of them are poor and most would love to live in Austria. Who wouldn't?
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