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No Loss Martingale Strategy

  • #181
  • Sep 22, 2015 8:31am Sep 22, 2015 8:31am
Quoting BubaYaga
I love martingale, and even averaging down/into position strategies. they work, and they work, and they work , and you make a ton of money. and just as you start thinking of retirement plans in exotic destinations... ... margin calls! I think,. No, I strongly believe martingale is all about timing. before you start- make a goal - and promise yourself, once met, you'll stop and withdraw all profits, that is a gift from God and nothing more. yes, the Devil will tempt you. such greed is intoxicating. Start again by all means, what ever keeps your mind...
But Forex Market is just a son of a bitch, you buy it goes short, you sell it goes long, you buy again it goes short more! only martingale can fight with such a M.F...
  • #182
  • Sep 22, 2015 8:39am Sep 22, 2015 8:39am
Quoting fx4money
{quote} please explain reverse martingale with example. still unsure on this term.
You open a buy 1 lot with 10 pips sl, and 2 lot, 10 pip buy stop, if hits the sl you start again, else you move your sl 10 pips upper, and set a 4 lot buy stop 10 pips ahead, your target is go 100 pips in long, without a retrace, and take a huge profit.
  • #183
  • Edited 9:43am Sep 22, 2015 8:57am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting fx4money
{quote} please explain reverse martingale with example. still unsure on this term.
Reverse Martingales (Anti-Martingales) are the opposite of a Martingale whereby you double your lot size after a win etc etc etc.....Of course there are also modifications where progressions do not take the strict form of doubling up after each loss/win event.

Anti-Martingales have a distinctly different form of equity curve where you have a steady linear decent with small losses interdispersed with tremendous quadratic wins. They base success on market divergence whereas Martingales base success on market convergence and their loss profile is quadratic in nature. For example on this forum 'the snowball' is an excellent example of an anti-martingale.

One thing about Martingales, there are many different forms of them, and some sub-categories of Martingale progression have particular characterictics. For example with both Martingales and Anti-Martingales you can have further variations such as Supermartingales/anti-martingales (where Pwin <50%) or Submartingales/anti-martingales (where Pwin >50%).

The anti-martingale is an interesting twist on the Martingale but like the Martingale, also suffers from performance inefficiency when compared to flat betting techniques that use position sizing to enhance performance. They can be employed very successfully on exponential trend moves but if applied to linear trends face problems in that the breakeven point of the progression can fall behind price. They are however far 'safer' than Martingales.

Note also that Martingales/Anti-martingale progressions can be applied to any form of price movement such as trends, sideways congestion etc. It is the progression itself that is important as opposed to the underlying trade technique which defines a Martingale/Anti-Martingale. You can be as creative as you like in how you apply these progressions.

I think the problem of mixing Martingales with Anti-Martingales is that their returns are not symmetrical in nature with Martingale loss curves being quadratic in nature and Anti-Martingales being linear in nature. The result is that the performance of the Martingale will dominate the equity curve when you mix the two.

The way I view a Martingale system is a bit like a pressure cooker. Somewhere along the way you need a release valve otherwise it is very likely that you are going to explode. That is why progression limited Martingales or at least regularly harvesting profits from your Martingale as opposed to continual compounding profits at least give me more peace of mind. It actually makes you appreciate taking losses when you view it this way as the losses in actuality are your release valve. With No Loss Martingales you are potentially playing with an explosive device.

They are very interesting to discuss but the reality is that when you are on your 5th or so level of your progression it makes you do 'stupid' things such as howl at the heavens.

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  • #184
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:44am Sep 22, 2015 10:44am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Reverse Martingales (Anti-Martingales) are the opposite of a Martingale whereby you double your lot size after a win etc etc etc.....Of course there are also modifications where progressions do not take the strict form of doubling up after each loss/win event. Anti-Martingales have a distinctly different form of equity curve where you have a steady linear decent with small losses interdispersed with tremendous quadratic wins. They base success on market divergence whereas Martingales base success on market convergence and their loss profile...
If there was a like button, I'd click it here. Extensive information and a balanced view. Especially about the "release valve". No martingale-esque system can work without it. Many other systems also need one.
  • #185
  • Sep 22, 2015 9:32pm Sep 22, 2015 9:32pm
Quoting She1
{quote} there already are some EAs with those abilities, if you increase safety the profit will reduce very much and there still is an almost big stop loss !i have shared many good EAs here and probably most of them are better than your frien's EA, and of curse their free! so the problem is not solved my dude...
would u like to share ur best martingale ea?
  • #186
  • Sep 22, 2015 10:18pm Sep 22, 2015 10:18pm
Quoting johan4292
{quote} would u like to share ur best martingale ea?
Forex Hacked pro is very profitable, and it has StopLossPCT field, this one is good too, and more safe! i wanted to modify it to add some capabilities and make it the best, but the codes has been written so complicated!
  • #187
  • Sep 23, 2015 2:43am Sep 23, 2015 2:43am
Quoting WhyDrawdown
{quote} What happens if we simply remove our expectation of anything working or failing in the long haul? Martingale alone wont determine if you win or lose in the long or even short term, but the actual system which is used shall determine that. If we can look at systems which dont incur many losses in a row, and we try to find variations of said system to decrease the losses, then we can use martingale effectively.
The problem with a martingale with no edge will always be that you are playing with coin flips 50/50 BUT you have to overcome spread/commission/slippage also so the expectancy in the long run mathematically should be negative.
Take a random test with 500.000 samples and will find that you can easily have 22-26 loss events in a row.
Can a martingale handle this? I don't know...
  • #188
  • Sep 23, 2015 11:38am Sep 23, 2015 11:38am
Quoting Mag357
{quote} The problem with a martingale with no edge will always be that you are playing with coin flips 50/50 BUT you have to overcome spread/commission/slippage also so the expectancy in the long run mathematically should be negative. Take a random test with 500.000 samples and will find that you can easily have 22-26 loss events in a row. Can a martingale handle this? I don't know...
The answer is that martingale can not handle such a loss. but instead of looking at the negative side, why dont we focus on accurate systems which dont have a high prob of having say 10 losses in a row for x amount of pips, then use martingale with that system. That way our entries are RANDOM, and we already have a small amount of tp and sl which makes it much easier to use martingale with.
  • #189
  • Sep 23, 2015 4:41pm Sep 23, 2015 4:41pm
think about this: we are trading in short and long, the trend is going long for a long time, and our trade sizes in long are being larger, in martingale the problem start with increasing lot size more than usual, so we decide to start anti martingale in our long positions with a half size of our last open position in short to help avoiding draw down, until trend have a retrace and our short trades close with take profit,
our first problem have solved now, large open trades in short are all closed, but we have a sequence of long trades open! now we have to solve that: in our sequence the last open trade have negative profit, before last is break even and the others are in profit, we close all except the one in loss,
we still have an almost big long trade open, what do we do now? martingale in long, and start another anti martingale in short with 1/3 of the open long position!? what do you think...
  • #190
  • Sep 23, 2015 7:38pm Sep 23, 2015 7:38pm
Martingale is like the ugly girl when you're drunk. Looks really nice at first. Then the next day you realize what a horrible mistake you've made.
  • #191
  • Sep 24, 2015 1:46am Sep 24, 2015 1:46am
Quoting She1
think about this: we are trading in short and long, the trend is going long for a long time, and our trade sizes in long are being larger, in martingale the problem start with increasing lot size more than usual, so we decide to start anti martingale in our long positions with a half size of our last open position in short to help avoiding draw down, until trend have a retrace and our short trades close with take profit, our first problem have solved now, large open trades in short are all closed, but we have a sequence of long trades open! now...
The problem with trading with the TREND is that you have a bias towards something which can change at the drop of a dime. Recall when EU dropped from 1.39 to 1.06 Al though it took about 16 months to do it, the reality is before that drop EU rose from 1.12 to 1.39 People trading the TREND willl eventually get burned because they fail to realize that the reversal will occur on the lower tf before it does on their higher tf. All in all, martingale isnt the killer here, but it is the system which the trader is using. If the trader picks RANDOM spots, as trend traders do, and don´t focus on accuracy then the result will be a drained out, especially if you are using martingale.
  • #192
  • Sep 24, 2015 11:32am Sep 24, 2015 11:32am
Have a look at the following trade explorer.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: omgfloating.PNG Size: 68 KB


Simply look at his ¨floating loss¨. He has over 9000 pips in floating loss
If the trader would of used Martingale the account would of went pop many moons ago
Luckly he has not increased his lot size at all, thus allowing him to still be able to wager in this forex market.
My question to you is, why would anyone use MARTINGALE in a trading strategy in which you would allow a massive drawdown in pips to occur?
  • #193
  • Sep 24, 2015 4:09pm Sep 24, 2015 4:09pm
Quoting WhyDrawdown
Have a look at the following trade explorer. {image} Simply look at his floating loss. He has over 9000 pips in floating loss If the trader would of used Martingale the account would of went pop many moons ago Luckly he has not increased his lot size at all, thus allowing him to still be able to wager in this forex market. My question to you is, why would anyone use MARTINGALE in a trading strategy in which you would allow a massive drawdown in pips to occur?
That's why + i really need a profitable method, not a 10% a month. we try to don't let market to leave us in a massive drawdown! and you are welcome if you can give me an enough profitable method but less risky. trust me, i have tried many things...
  • #194
  • Sep 24, 2015 8:33pm Sep 24, 2015 8:33pm
Quoting She1
{quote} That's why + i really need a profitable method, not a 10% a month. we try to don't let market to leave us in a massive drawdown! and you are welcome if you can give me an enough profitable method but less risky. trust me, i have tried many things...
The percentage you make a month or try to make a month shouldnt be as important as you using a system which is accurate. You mention that you have used all of the systems, but my question is have you tried trading on lower tf using 1 to 1 risk to reward?
  • #195
  • Sep 24, 2015 9:51pm Sep 24, 2015 9:51pm
Quoting WhyDrawdown
{quote} The percentage you make a month or try to make a month shouldnt be as important as you using a system which is accurate. You mention that you have used all of the systems, but my question is have you tried trading on lower tf using 1 to 1 risk to reward?
i think it doesn't matter what TM or risk/reward ration you use, it depends on how you get your signals
  • #196
  • Sep 24, 2015 10:02pm Sep 24, 2015 10:02pm
Quoting She1
{quote} i think it doesn't matter what TM or risk/reward ration you use, it depends on how you get your signals
The higher the TF then the more pips you will be willing to give up. The lower the tf the greater the chance of having a lower drawdown in pips and a great risk to reward ratio. The signals of course has everything to do with the system, but at the same time money management has to be apart of it. I will create a thread showing me using Martingale in a live account to see how many withdraws I can make before bursting the account.
  • #197
  • Sep 25, 2015 3:14am Sep 25, 2015 3:14am
Quoting She1
{quote} That's why + i really need a profitable method, not a 10% a month. we try to don't let market to leave us in a massive drawdown! and you are welcome if you can give me an enough profitable method but less risky. trust me, i have tried many things...
what do you mean by profitable? 50% or 100% per month??
LUCKY golden trades, LUCKY gold investor trading style
  • #198
  • Sep 25, 2015 3:22am Sep 25, 2015 3:22am
Quoting imtav
Martingale is like the ugly girl when you're drunk. Looks really nice at first. Then the next day you realize what a horrible mistake you've made.
Luv it.
  • #199
  • Sep 25, 2015 4:53am Sep 25, 2015 4:53am
Quoting fx4money
{quote} what do you mean by profitable? 50% or 100% per month??
10% Steady profit per week is fine for me.
  • #200
  • Sep 25, 2015 11:12pm Sep 25, 2015 11:12pm
Does anyone have a working EA for the Belkhayate expectancy? ... it seems to be a challenge to an already chaotic pool infested with sharks LOL!
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