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The simple truth about FX trading

  • #21
  • Sep 20, 2015 12:53pm Sep 20, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Thank you
what about Forbes? where is your miracle trader? which position?
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
  • #22
  • Sep 20, 2015 1:36pm Sep 20, 2015 1:36pm
Quoting alexnn
{quote} what about Forbes? where is your miracle trader? which position?
It would appear that you have gone on this rant about forex because you have failed! It is normal for a person who has failed in life to be pessistimitc but the reality is some people make money in forex, and that alone reveals that everything you mentioned isnīt true. By you simply saying that the spread will kill you makes no sense as you can have a person with a huge spread but great connection to the server, compared to a person who has .1 spread and canīt get filled even if their life depended on it.
  • #23
  • Sep 20, 2015 2:37pm Sep 20, 2015 2:37pm
Ha ahahahaahahhaaaa............

Please please please......



Quoting alexnn
1) noone can predict market. There are honest lucky guys and many cheats who will try convince you otherwise 2) leverage will kill you. Avoid brokers that push you to use it. Never excceed x5 3) spread will kill you. Use a broker with the smallest spread 4) only trade in positive swap direction 5) dont use Stop Losses orders. 6) learn programming and implement your system as a robot/script. Test it on TICKS data (max minutes) 6.a) read real science articles about: statistical analysis, searching for signal in the noise, etc. Dont waste your time...
  • #24
  • Sep 20, 2015 3:29pm Sep 20, 2015 3:29pm
Quoting alexnn
1) noone can predict market. There are honest lucky guys and many cheats who will try convince you otherwise 2) leverage will kill you. Avoid brokers that push you to use it. Never excceed x5 3) spread will kill you. Use a broker with the smallest spread 4) only trade in positive swap direction 5) dont use Stop Losses orders. 6) learn programming and implement your system as a robot/script. Test it on TICKS data (max minutes) 6.a) read real science articles about: statistical analysis, searching for signal in the noise, etc. Dont waste your time...
Ok here's my take on your ponts:

1) absolute true, nobody know the future yet.
2) usually true, yet there are times when leverage is going to be your best friend.
3) true.
4) swap direction isn't really meaningful (remember the truth number 1).
5) this point is complicated, stoplosses are just "automatic" orders, just a tool we can use, they help you close a position fast (they become instant market order once filled). Some people may prefer to close their losing trades manually, some other may prefer the help of a stoploss. We cannot however blame "stoplosses" for our losses.
6) pretty good advice!
7) false, of course if you can achieve 20% a year every year all the years forver, you are going to be the best one (or one of the bests). However, since the rule number 1 (remember?) is true, nobody can ever achieve any kind of profit year after year.
What i'm trying to say is, we should not care too much about performance, since they are only a secondary outcome of our activity.
If you feel like you can go for +1000% on a month, there is no need to limit yourself and aim only for 2-3% a month.

But nice post!
  • #25
  • Sep 20, 2015 3:42pm Sep 20, 2015 3:42pm
Quoting alexnn
{quote}2015>>>>4,052,555,153,018,980,000,000
I wouldn't be trading with this amount, I would be playing with companies. Make a big rally, then tank the shares. lol

If anyone is wondering what these numbers would be called: "four sextillion, fifty-two quintillion, five hundred fifty-five quadrillion, one hundred fifty-three trillion, eighteen billion, nine hundred eighty million dollars"
  • #26
  • Sep 20, 2015 11:57pm Sep 20, 2015 11:57pm
Quoting WhyDrawdown
It would appear that you have gone on this rant about forex because you have failed! .
Dear WhyDrawdown, assuming from your registration date - you are a new guy. If so then my post was for you. And in a bit of ironic way. If you stick long enough then you will see truth in it.

But for now the only advise: always ask for at least 5 years monitored history on real account. And there must be many trades there, buy and sell.

One more time: real account, long history, many trades - only in this can see the reality.

It is possible to make 100% a day on FX. Leverage will make it happen. But probability to make it every day for 1 month... Well, that's something else
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
  • #27
  • Sep 21, 2015 12:24am Sep 21, 2015 12:24am
Quoting alexnn
{quote} Let's check with Excel Let's say he started in 1976 with 1000 USD and every year he made 200% (so minimum on your statement). Question how much does he have now? Year>>>>Capital 1976>>>>1,000 1977>>>>3,000 1978>>>>9,000 1979>>>>27,000 1980>>>>81,000 1981>>>>243,000 1982>>>>729,000 1983>>>>2,187,000 1984>>>>6,561,000 1985>>>>19,683,000 1986>>>>59,049,000 1987>>>>177,147,000 1988>>>>531,441,000 1989>>>>1,594,323,000 1990>>>>4,782,969,000 1991>>>>14,348,907,000 1992>>>>43,046,721,000 1993>>>>129,140,163,000 1994>>>>387,420,489,000 1995>>>>1,162,261,467,000...
Man did you really learn 10 years to make such posts? it reminds me of my first months here. Do you understand that the nature of this game changes with the ammount of money that you move ? Moving few millions is nothing, however when you go to 100s and billions, it is played differently, THAT is the stage when you will be happy with your 20% targets. Not when you play with your salary. If you want 20% on small money, go and buy an ice-cream van.
  • #28
  • Sep 21, 2015 12:25am Sep 21, 2015 12:25am
Quoting avibe
there is diminishing returns once an account reaches $10million dollars.. because of volume restrictions etc you cannot grow infinity
I think we are just wasting our energy here.. Maybe some people are destined to be influenced by tv and paid articles..
  • #29
  • Sep 21, 2015 12:47am Sep 21, 2015 12:47am
Quoting alexnn
{quote} Dear WhyDrawdown, assuming from your registration date - you are a new guy. If so then my post was for you. And in a bit of ironic way. If you stick long enough then you will see truth in it. But for now the only advise: always ask for at least 5 years monitored history on real account. And there must be many trades there, buy and sell. One more time: real account, long history, many trades - only in this can see the reality. It is possible to make 100% a day on FX. Leverage will make it happen. But probability to make it every day for 1...
You judge if someone is inexperienced by registration date. You think that you know some TRUTH and you are sharing it with the "new guys". You want TO ASK for 5 years monitored history from other people, as if it has something to do with your own achievements. Now tell me, who is the noob? The only account statement that you need to study is your own and until it makes you smile every day, I suggest you stop posting incompetent stuff and deluding people that are here to learn something mroe valuable. The only reason I am still posting - I am totally pissed by people like you who slowed down my learning by years. I read all the wrong and demotivating posts by people with 10 year registration at FF that know nothing about this game, read a few books and articles and think that they will be the next Soros. Really hope that those "NEW GUYS" will find the right way and sift through all the bullsh*ting here. And I am retreating from this comedy.
  • #30
  • Sep 21, 2015 1:03am Sep 21, 2015 1:03am
The simple truth is that eventually we all fall short of the glory of forex profits (:
  • #31
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:03am Sep 21, 2015 2:03am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} you are majorly mistaken here. first of all trading for a bank and retail trading at home have nothing in common, at all. You cant even compare them nor would you ever even want to trade like a bank. They probably don't even make money from actual 'trades' ! A bank is merly a liquidity provider, they just hedge orders and print more money. They don't engage in speculative transactions for profit, or rarely-that make majority of money.
Agree!.
I guess. if some ppl want compare banks and day trading, pls stop trading at all.
  • #32
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:11am Sep 21, 2015 2:11am
Quoting feline207
{quote} Man did you really learn 10 years to make such posts? it reminds me of my first months here.
You are very smart. Much smarter than me.

May I see your trading history? Or there are only many posts on forums and no proof?
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
  • #33
  • Sep 21, 2015 3:24am Sep 21, 2015 3:24am
Quoting alexnn
{quote} You are very smart. Much smarter than me. May I see your trading history? Or there are only many posts on forums and no proof?
Start making your own history and stop asking for others. This is one of the traits that has kept bringin me down for years. Wanting to know others history ! Measuring their success. Wanna have that PROOF that it is possible. Go check for yourslef what is possible and what are the limits. You cant go skiing nor hill climbing on my equity curves
  • #34
  • Sep 21, 2015 6:13am Sep 21, 2015 6:13am
Quoting feline207
{quote} Start making your own history and stop asking for others.
I understood who you are. So you can stop posting here.

@all
Look at http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php

Make horizon - whole year, live accounts. Check it once per month..

And realize that to get in top 100 (from 10K of traders here) you need very small profit.

Also take any account that shows >100% (or 20% ) and see how long does it exist and what is the profit per year
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
  • #35
  • Sep 21, 2015 9:55am Sep 21, 2015 9:55am
umm
Attached Image
  • #36
  • Sep 21, 2015 10:43am Sep 21, 2015 10:43am
we decide if we believe or not.everthing is possible in my mind.
Inserted Video
  • #37
  • Jan 22, 2016 8:49am Jan 22, 2016 8:49am
3 weeks of 2016

#99 trader shows return of 42.3%

#99http://assets.forexfactory.net/nfs/c...tar11973_6.gif hello1234
42.3%

#1
#1http://resources.forexfactory.net/im...ault_16x16.png andiahmad
1,795.3%


#50
#50http://resources.forexfactory.net/im...ault_16x16.png yogasampurno
68.7%

let's check monthly how this will develop

keep in mind - this is top 100 from all the thousands of traiders here
... another pointless day where I accomplish nothing.
  • #38
  • Edited 10:37am Jan 24, 2016 9:56am | Edited 10:37am
Since this is about "truth" I think it's a good place for me to recall some of things I said in past yet have found to be more "depends" than absolutes.

-"zero sum game" - penny stock & bucketshops vs bonds or fx through real market

-counterparties - depends on the market and access - most of the "liquid" markets have the "HFT liquidity", then there could be something like a popular stock in some obscure less developed market with non-HFT liquidity. The difference being that with HFT liquidity you need to pay close attention to the "right side of the chart" immediately after putting on a position and adjust your method if the chart doesn't look good. Good idea regardless but even more so with the algos on the other side.

-stop losses - I have new approach that incorporates them but more as "emergency" measure vs putting them in obvious places which is what I was really against before because my old entry method was largely about entering where those obvious stops were.
  • #39
  • Jan 24, 2016 10:29am Jan 24, 2016 10:29am
Tred following and get 20% per months.
Stop loss is necessary which says us that you r wrong so get out or change your direction.
Dont predict just reacts i prefer breakout.
Cheers....
Trade fearless not careless...
  • #40
  • Edited Jan 25, 2016 9:14am Jan 24, 2016 5:17pm | Edited Jan 25, 2016 9:14am
OK, I'll play........
Quoting alexnn
1) noone can predict market. There are honest lucky guys and many cheats who will try convince you otherwise
Depends what you mean by "predict". Market is not random, there are plenty of potential edges (see myth #22 here as a possible starting point).
Quote
2) leverage will kill you. Avoid brokers that push you to use it. Never excceed x5
Agree that risk management is paramount, but don't confuse leverage with risk: it's not compulsory to use max leverage allowed by your br0ker.
Quote
3) spread will kill you. Use a broker with the smallest spread
Agree, the long term effect of spread is underestimated by many traders.
Quote
4) only trade in positive swap direction
That is a potential edge, but there are better ones.
Quote
5) dont use Stop Losses orders.
All orders are merely vehicles that adjust your net position (net long, short or flat).
Quote
6) learn programming and implement your system as a robot/script. Test it on TICKS data (max minutes)
6.a) read real science articles about: statistical analysis, searching for signal in the noise, etc. Dont waste your time on "indicators" and "levels"
The most robust edges that I'm currently aware of include FA and discretion which can't be coded as mechanical rules.
Quote
7) set realistic goals. Stable 20% per YEAR is a HUGE Success. If you are get there - other investors will find you and give you the money that's enough
Agree that most aspiring traders probably set goals that are too high. It's possibly best not to set goals at all, for the reasons given in myth #18 in previous link. Pro traders focus on managing risk, not ROI targets.
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