Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 310 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,181
  • Edited 2:19pm Sep 16, 2015 2:02pm | Edited 2:19pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Nested levels are indeed very powerful IF the trend is clear. Those are momentum and location type of trades, highest odds! Cheers, Alfonso
Its still not very clear to me. If we have a weekly level and later price comes back and make a nested daily level, isn't then the weekly level used up. or is it just a look into smaller TF when the weekly levels is formed the first time?
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  • #6,182
  • Sep 16, 2015 4:56pm Sep 16, 2015 4:56pm
Quoting Bernhard
{quote} Its still not very clear to me. If we have a weekly level and later price comes back and make a nested daily level, isn't then the weekly level used up. or is it just a look into smaller TF when the weekly levels is formed the first time? {image}
Hey Bernard. You should wait for confirmation from Alfonso, but I was just using this chart to show how the multiple time frames work together. I was not drawing price action to show how it uses up levels and such. The main point to take away from this (and I think Alfonso later confirmed) is that using three time frames allows for more moves. The daily will bounce in be-tween weekly on the way to the monthly.
  • #6,183
  • Sep 17, 2015 2:41am Sep 17, 2015 2:41am
Quoting Bernhard
{quote} Its still not very clear to me. If we have a weekly level and later price comes back and make a nested daily level, isn't then the weekly level used up. or is it just a look into smaller TF when the weekly levels is formed the first time? {image}
If the weekly level is tested and price retests it again, the level won't be used-up, it will just be a second retest, nothing else. 3 or more retests with consolidation away after the retest will be considered as used-up. If level is tested, you must wait for confirmation, that is, brand new imbalance that takes out opposing entry timeframe imbalance and breaks previous trendline.

Hope that's clear.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,184
  • Sep 17, 2015 4:42am Sep 17, 2015 4:42am
Hi Alfonso,

I've been watching your video about Sequence and Realignment and there is something I don't understand.

The rules say we have a demand zone if price breaks a descending trend line or price breaks an opposing supply zone.
But in that video you're drawing a demand zone as soon as price is making a higher high in the uptrend, without looking if the high removed is supply. Can we do that?

Cheers,
Daniel
  • #6,185
  • Sep 17, 2015 6:05am Sep 17, 2015 6:05am
Quoting dvarrin
Hi Alfonso, I've been watching your video about Sequence and Realignment and there is something I don't understand. The rules say we have a demand zone if price breaks a descending trend line or price breaks an opposing supply zone. But in that video you're drawing a demand zone as soon as price is making a higher high in the uptrend, without looking if the high removed is supply. Can we do that? Cheers, Daniel
Hi Daniel,

Please attach screenshot, I just don't know which video or scenario you are referring to Please always attach a screenshot, else I can't help
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,186
  • Sep 17, 2015 8:19am Sep 17, 2015 8:19am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Daniel, Please attach screenshot, I just don't know which video or scenario you are referring to Please always attach a screenshot, else I can't help Cheers, Alfonso
Hi Alfonso,

Here are my different problems.

In the picture below, why are you drawing the trend line like that? The second valley is not making a higher high than the second leg of the first valley.

Attached Image


Here I don't understand the trend line either. The high before the start of the trend line is not supply. To be able to draw a trend line price must firt make a higher high. And as the previous high is not supply, we will eventually have a demand zone only if it is the all time high or if price removes a supply zone higher and far in the past.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Then you draw the trend line like this and say that monthly is consolidating, but then in your analysis you again say that monthly is up, because all demand levels are being respected.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image3.png Size: 122 KB


Cheers,
Daniel
  • #6,187
  • Sep 17, 2015 8:31am Sep 17, 2015 8:31am
Quoting dvarrin
{quote} Hi Alfonso, Here are my different problems. In the picture below, why are you drawing the trend line like that? The second valley is not making a higher high than the second leg of the first valley. {image} Here I don't understand the trend line either. The high before the start of the trend line is not supply. To be able to draw a trend line price must firt make a higher high. And as the previous high is not supply, we will eventually have a demand zone only if it is the all time high or if price removes a supply zone higher and far in...
Top trendline is incorrect, I will locate the video and see what I was saying there. By just looking at that TL, it's incorrect.
Second trendline is correct, it made two valleys so we connect ascending TL, no supply taken out, so no uptrend yet.
Third trendline is correct. Monthly is up but one demand zone taken out, trendis bullish but consolidating, but bullish, UP.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,188
  • Sep 17, 2015 9:13am Sep 17, 2015 9:13am
Quoting Stockguy
Here is the daily chart Alfonso. This one I am not as sure about. I have also attached a third chart with an addition question. Thank You, Stockguy {image}
Alfonso, if you don't mind. Can you double check this chart in the quote for me. Sometimes I am confused as to where I should be looking for s/d to be broken.
Thanks,
Stockguy
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  • #6,189
  • Sep 17, 2015 9:36am Sep 17, 2015 9:36am
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} Alfonso, if you don't mind. Can you double check this chart in the quote for me. Sometimes I am confused as to where I should be looking for s/d to be broken. Thanks, Stockguy {image}
all of them. the blue are a reaction of the yellow I think.
lets try me
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  • #6,190
  • Sep 17, 2015 10:45am Sep 17, 2015 10:45am
Quoting Bernhard
{quote} all of them. the blue are a reaction of the yellow I think. lets try me {image}
I have found that that's not always the case though. There are times you might find a demand zone from yesterday or 4 hours ago, and others might be from two or three weeks ago. I was talking about this with Chawl as well. It would seem to me that the ones from longer ago would be HTF zones. I think.
  • #6,191
  • Sep 17, 2015 11:08am Sep 17, 2015 11:08am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Top trendline is incorrect, I will locate the video and see what I was saying there. By just looking at that TL, it's incorrect. Second trendline is correct, it made two valleys so we connect ascending TL, no supply taken out, so no uptrend yet. Third trendline is correct. Monthly is up but one demand zone taken out, trendis bullish but consolidating, but bullish, UP. Cheers, Alfonso
Thank you Alfonso,

It better corresponds to your rules ;-)

Cheers,
Daniel
  • #6,192
  • Sep 19, 2015 7:54am Sep 19, 2015 7:54am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} If the weekly level is tested and price retests it again, the level won't be used-up, it will just be a second retest, nothing else. 3 or more retests with consolidation away after the retest will be considered as used-up. If level is tested, you must wait for confirmation, that is, brand new imbalance that takes out opposing entry timeframe imbalance and breaks previous trendline. Hope that's clear. Cheers, Alfonso
Sorry I am still not very used to the terms, I meant "not fresh" instead of used up. (language )

Looking a second time at post one, I found this picture for example of confirmation. I understand it is all the same rules as it is for all supply demand? So a new zone is created when either a trendline is broken or a opposing zone taken out, and this new zone is nested in the bigger TF zone. (Could someone post some real charts?)
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  • #6,193
  • Sep 19, 2015 12:48pm Sep 19, 2015 12:48pm
One of your vids you show this CP on JP Morgan. Why is that a CP the candle is a full candle? Thx
(Long Term Supply and Demand Trading imbalances Live Webinar 29th April 2015 0h58min)
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  • #6,194
  • Sep 20, 2015 12:13am Sep 20, 2015 12:13am
Quoting Bernhard
One of your vids you show this CP on JP Morgan. Why is that a CP the candle is a full candle? Thx (Long Term Supply and Demand Trading imbalances Live Webinar 29th April 2015 0h58min) {image}
That's a marubozu candle Bernhard. CPs are not only composed of 50% candles, marubozu are very powerful when the market is trending. It's also accomplished a very important event, removing previous supply to the left .

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,195
  • Sep 20, 2015 12:14am Sep 20, 2015 12:14am
Quoting Bernhard
{quote} Sorry I am still not very used to the terms, I meant "not fresh" instead of used up. (language ) Looking a second time at post one, I found this picture for example of confirmation. I understand it is all the same rules as it is for all supply demand? So a new zone is created when either a trendline is broken or a opposing zone taken out, and this new zone is nested in the bigger TF zone. (Could someone post some real charts?) {image}
That's a confirmation type of trade. Can you try and locate such a chart? You will understand it better if you try to replicate what the rules are trying to say You'll learn more if you try and do it by yourself

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,196
  • Sep 20, 2015 9:28am Sep 20, 2015 9:28am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} That's a confirmation type of trade. Can you try and locate such a chart? You will understand it better if you try to replicate what the rules are trying to say You'll learn more if you try and do it by yourself Cheers, Alfonso
you are a strong teacher but a good one. I am teacher too but music.
I need see charts pictures, that's the kind I learn and understand. You posted in post one this pic. Is the entry on first level or must I wait h4 break its h4 trendline or h4 zone, and entry is at second level?
So entry 1 or entry 2? (as entry 2 is not anymore in D1 zone)
thank you for your patient answers!
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  • #6,197
  • Sep 20, 2015 7:09pm Sep 20, 2015 7:09pm
I have one confusion about GBPUSD weekly TL, which one is the right TL, the bold one or the dotted one?

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  • #6,198
  • Sep 20, 2015 8:13pm Sep 20, 2015 8:13pm
Hi Alfonso ,

Could you please look at the screenshot of H1,H4 & D1 of EURUSD. I too short here. Please let me know if it's correct. I am seeing major downtrend here so according to set & forget rule i am going with short.
If you see candle shadow touch the H4 demand zone & moved back. But if i drilled down it to H1 there is another demand zone nested within H4 D Zone. So i am thinking it will go again down to reach H1 demand zone. Please let me know if it's right.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: H4.png Size: 16 KB
Attached Image
  • #6,199
  • Sep 21, 2015 1:42am Sep 21, 2015 1:42am
Quoting Solomon1a
I have one confusion about GBPUSD weekly TL, which one is the right TL, the bold one or the dotted one? {image}
Correct trendline is always the last one, the one that created the latest 2 valleys or peaks. The descending one is the valid one then.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,200
  • Sep 21, 2015 1:44am Sep 21, 2015 1:44am
Quoting Nabeelahmad
Hi Alfonso , Could you please look at the screenshot of H1,H4 & D1 of EURUSD. I too short here. Please let me know if it's correct. I am seeing major downtrend here so according to set & forget rule i am going with short. If you see candle shadow touch the H4 demand zone & moved back. But if i drilled down it to H1 there is another demand zone nested within H4 D Zone. So i am thinking it will go again down to reach H1 demand zone. Please let me know if it's right. {image} {image} {image}
Hello Nabeel,

H1 timeframes are not allowed in this thread. It's part of the rules of this thread. Can you please remove your previous post? If too late, ask for a cleanup by pressing that button. Lower timeframes than H4 are not allowed in this thread, H1 is not used for swing/position trading.

Please, kindly remove that post and ask whatever question that you may have WITHOUT using timeframes lower than H4.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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