Big Loss Martingale Strategy! 12 replies
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Disliked{quote} It is subtle, but I actually don't think I am on the same page as you with this. I am going to have to think on this some more....... It appears that you are a strict adherent to EMH based on these assumptions which is great in theory but an appalling replicator of reality. I am not so sure that each trade event is strictly an independent event unlike say the roulette table. Contingent events are a fact of life in trading such as the contingent events associated with a hedge fund progressively reducing their exposure over a stated timeframe...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Position sizing cannot change expectancy - yes. Position sizing can enhance profitability - yes. Each roulette spin is an independent event - yes.Each price movement is an independent event - no, not alwaysIgnored
DislikedI'm back with another idea, my dudes: there is a mathematical certainty that the price can not keep moving in one direction without a retrace, what do you think if we can scan the market in a special pair and achieve to some information. for example: since January 1 2015 until now, the AUDUSD pair has never moved more than 240 pips in short without having an at least 40 pips movement in long, suppose our martingale strategy can withstand 180 pips if market goes in the opposite direction, so wee need an indicator that send a signal when the market has moved 100 pips without retrace(or even more, to being cautious) in short, then we conclude its time to start a martingale trading in long with the TP of 20 pips.Ignored
DislikedWhere I differ is the notion that MM cannot be used to enhance performance having achieved positive expectancyIgnored
Disliked{quote} No way! I believe that it's possible to find inefficiencies, and attain positive expectancy, using entries and/or exitsIgnored
DislikedShe1 but you can't wait every time price run for 100-150 pips to open a martingale in opposite direction. For what? to gain a 2% of such a rare event? It will eventually come that day that price will crash for 1000+ pips like SNB day and account blows up because martingale can sustain only x pips to try to close in gain that 2%.Ignored
DislikedIn this case B is able to gain an advantage simply from the dependence in his trade series. So I suppose the underlying question is whether system trade series are really independent or if some trading systems exist that have some degree of persistent dependence greater than the underlying market? I have found the latter to generally be the case though I've created systems with trade series that fit into both categories.Ignored
Disliked{quote} No way! I believe that it's possible to find inefficiencies, and attain positive expectancy, using entries and/or exits. If I believed that markets were perfectly efficient at all times, I'd quit trading and play poker instead. {quote}Ignored
DislikedHi dude! Great to see that someone is working with martingale strategy. It's like the taboo of the trading world. People are so scared and will start lecturing you on how it will not work bla bla bla. Any who I will just try to point out how I use it myself. Firstly I use a very conservative mm for this strategy. The goal is to make money over the long term and not to be rich overnight. I choose the direction using fundamentals. After I have selected the direction I will enter my first position. I usually re-average after 300-700 pips depending...Ignored