Spider's Den | Page 1098 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: Spider's Den
Exit Attachments

Spider's Den

  • #21,941
  • Sep 17, 2015 7:51pm Sep 17, 2015 7:51pm
Quoting WhyDrawdown
{quote} Hello. Would you please be as kind enough to tell me what you saw in the charts to allow you to want to take long positions on gbp-usd prior to such high impact news?
I didn't take Long positions on GBPUSD though... I took short....gbp overvalued and retest of a broken trendline support now turned resistance.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #21,942
  • Sep 17, 2015 8:03pm Sep 17, 2015 8:03pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} for people who actually hold the option I mentioned, and that yellen doesn't hike to cause market panic sell off on eurusd, ( ie your scenario that it doesn't come to fruition) all they would lose is the premium of 15-19 pips..... Option trades are not supposed to be a "sure bet" trade, options being a derivative is suppose to be a hedging tool so you are not 100% exposed in Spot. another hedging tool is forwards.
well nothing in life is a sure bet... but still i was thinking more of it as an insurance in case it failed...if i am not wrong you can sell the option if it hasnt expired but nevermind...

dont forget that i dont use SL (although i might use them as "trailing TP" sometimes) so i dont mind much...


btw i believe what happened gave us more time to short at "better" levels... until dec2015 which its going to be (in my opinion) the month of a rate hike
  • #21,943
  • Sep 17, 2015 8:30pm Sep 17, 2015 8:30pm
Quoting KGP
{quote} well nothing in life is a sure bet... but still i was thinking more of it as an insurance in case it failed...if i am not wrong you can sell the option if it hasnt expired but nevermind... dont forget that i dont use SL (although i might use them as "trailing TP" sometimes) so i dont mind much... btw i believe what happened gave us more time to short at "better" levels... until dec2015 which its going to be (in my opinion) the month of a rate hike
I still think the outlook for USD hasn't changed and USD hasn't depreciate on the back of the hype of no rate hike. heck commodities currency didn't even rise at all ....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #21,944
  • Sep 17, 2015 8:41pm Sep 17, 2015 8:41pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} I still think the outlook for USD hasn't changed and USD hasn't depreciate on the back of the hype of no rate hike. heck commodities currency didn't even rise at all ....
i am glad you agree with my point of view... and shorting the EURUSD (as long as you have a good broker "swapswise") in case you have to "wait" for TP to be hit... its swap positive as well...
  • #21,945
  • Sep 18, 2015 3:11am Sep 18, 2015 3:11am
Quoting T@rantula
The EURJPY has made a substantial correction from 132.20 zone forming inverted head and shoulders pattern. As we can see H4 chart shows both M and inv H & S but the price is sitting exactly at M breakout point ( 2 ). We can clearly see 2 inner trend lines which are forming X cross confluence within POC zone ( 78.6, H3 , previous triple top swing ) 137.50-70. I have marked all important touches with red rectangles and we can observe how price respects it. Have in mind that today we will have a VERY important FED statement and volatility will be huge....
100 pip rejection!
  • #21,946
  • Sep 18, 2015 3:18am Sep 18, 2015 3:18am
What are your current thoughts on EURUSD @ Tarantula?
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #21,947
  • Sep 18, 2015 3:27am Sep 18, 2015 3:27am
My thoughts is "Fuck the Fed"

Yellen looks like an old mutt.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #21,948
  • Sep 18, 2015 3:54am Sep 18, 2015 3:54am
Hi T, on the aud/usd pair, I found a V pattern form on the daily chart as highlighted in the screenshot.
Should we continue to see this as a good spot to sell or we wait for better entry point on this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 47 KB
  • #21,949
  • Sep 18, 2015 6:33am Sep 18, 2015 6:33am
Quoting KGP
{quote} i am glad you agree with my point of view... and shorting the EURUSD (as long as you have a good broker "swapswise") in case you have to "wait" for TP to be hit... its swap positive as well...
Waiting for profit is ok, but not when you are holding on to a position for 20% loss and over 500 pip drawdown. That my friend is horrible trade management.
  • #21,950
  • Sep 18, 2015 6:47am Sep 18, 2015 6:47am
Quoting fxtyrant
My thoughts is "Fuck the Fed" Yellen looks like an old mutt.
There are much powerful figures then Yellen..Screaming for QE4

Quoting YvetteTeo
What are your current thoughts on EURUSD @ Tarantula?
I will update the analysis soon
  • #21,951
  • Sep 18, 2015 7:27am Sep 18, 2015 7:27am
T@rantula

what type of analysis you trust most fundamental or technical ?

Thanks.
Trend Is Friend
  • #21,952
  • Sep 18, 2015 7:36am Sep 18, 2015 7:36am
Quoting fxtyrant
My thoughts is "Fuck the Fed" Yellen looks like an old mutt.
I know your a fundamental trader but have you ever thought your fundamental view is fundamentally incorrect? However i realize you could be arguing the case up to 1.39 which for even a bull on crack cocaine would not aim for
  • #21,953
  • Sep 18, 2015 7:41am Sep 18, 2015 7:41am
EURUSD analysis READ it HERE:

http://goo.gl/OMvHZG

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-09-18EURUSD.jpg Size: 252 KB
  • #21,954
  • Sep 18, 2015 7:43am Sep 18, 2015 7:43am
Quoting polatok
T@rantula what type of analysis you trust most fundamental or technical ? Thanks.
Technical but only when its aligned with fundamental facts.
  • #21,955
  • Sep 18, 2015 7:50am Sep 18, 2015 7:50am
THANKS for all who VOTED

Admiral Markets voted Best MT4 Broker in the UK Forex Awards 2015

http://www.admiralmarkets.com/about-...ampaign=buffer
  • #21,956
  • Sep 18, 2015 2:31pm Sep 18, 2015 2:31pm
Quoting WhyDrawdown
{quote} Waiting for profit is ok, but not when you are holding on to a position for 20% loss and over 500 pip drawdown. That my friend is horrible trade management.
it depends on your strategy and what type of trader you are... how much you "trust" your trades, your funds mgt and so on

just of the shake of giving you a "real example" check FXTyrants trade explorer... although i didnt like his EURUSD (dont want to start talking for other pairs) trade when taken by him... that doesnt mean its wrong holding it

on my end in case i would have taken this position i would have taken another one short at higher later on (but not now as we speak)

and i tend to have initial TP levels of mine very few times actually hit as i have trailing stops in it so i minimise the loss and drawdown... but a position trader is a position trader

in fact i know one who has hold a position for approx 8months just because he didnt have the TP set hit (and he went to similar drawndowns as you mentioned)

said that
i like the strategy of tarantula and is one i am trying to switch or concurrently use
  • #21,957
  • Sep 19, 2015 9:24am Sep 19, 2015 9:24am
Quoting KGP
{quote} it depends on your strategy and what type of trader you are... how much you "trust" your trades, your funds mgt and so on just of the shake of giving you a "real example" check FXTyrants trade explorer... although i didnt like his EURUSD (dont want to start talking for other pairs) trade when taken by him... that doesnt mean its wrong holding it on my end in case i would have taken this position i would have taken another one short at higher later on (but not now as we speak) and i tend to have initial TP levels of mine very few times actually...
Thank you for the response. I would agree that position traders minds are wired much differently then those who are sane and see the market for a manipulate playground which it is. Supply and demand on a tick by tick basis is what I reckon causes the spikes we see daily. New events is just an excuse to spike a currency 150 pips in 5 mins.
  • #21,958
  • Sep 20, 2015 7:28pm Sep 20, 2015 7:28pm
Quoting mkvy
{quote} I know your a fundamental trader but have you ever thought your fundamental view is fundamentally incorrect? However i realize you could be arguing the case up to 1.39 which for even a bull on crack cocaine would not aim for
Its not gona happen, multiple times the eurusd is stuck below 1.14xx for obvious reasons, draghi doesnt want a strong euro and ECB are more likely to keep euro down by easing. US is still in line to tighten regardless if they delay or not, they are still 1.5-2 years ahead of ECB on the hiking curve.

We will see sooner or later whos right.

Surprised me how very little peoplenunderstand he concept of fundamental trading being a long term one. And flat markets are just consolidation and part of the market where fundamentals traders would load up according to their direction.

I have had drawdowns before, but you really want to compete against me while im still at 100% win? For over a year now...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #21,959
  • Sep 20, 2015 8:37pm Sep 20, 2015 8:37pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Its not gona happen, multiple times the eurusd is stuck below 1.14xx for obvious reasons, draghi doesnt want a strong euro and ECB are more likely to keep euro down by easing. US is still in line to tighten regardless if they delay or not, they are still 1.5-2 years ahead of ECB on the hiking curve. We will see sooner or later whos right. Surprised me how very little peoplenunderstand he concept of fundamental trading being a long term one. And flat markets are just consolidation and part of the market where fundamentals traders would load...
Yes you are at 100% win rate, but your draw down of over 500 pips kind of says a lot about your out luck of what is to happen in the future. Essentially if you have a drawdown of 20% and you close the same trade for 10% profit, then it is clear that your system isnīt working.
  • #21,960
  • Edited 9:16pm Sep 20, 2015 9:04pm | Edited 9:16pm
Quoting WhyDrawdown
{quote} Yes you are at 100% win rate, but your draw down of over 500 pips kind of says a lot about your out luck of what is to happen in the future. Essentially if you have a drawdown of 20% and you close the same trade for 10% profit, then it is clear that your system isnt working.
If I have a drawdown of 20% but gain 10% profit every time with a win rate of 100% and consecutive winning rate of 20 some trades, I like my chances. that means for every 20% drawdown, I make 200% gains on the account. which is pretty much the case.

so please don't start a new account named "WhyDrawdown" to try to justify to me about trading, ive been in the business for over 5 years now, unless you can show me how good you are at trading, perhaps you should just keep your mouth shut until I am proven wrong.

good riddance new member.

Drawdown is part of trading. its inevitable, and personally I don't mind trading without a stoploss as long as Im smart enough not to trade illiquid pairs like stupid EURCHF was when SNB had the peg. Illquidity is the reason why disaster happens. illiquidity in a currency pair is why when a shock happens, there only offer and no bid or only bid and no offer, can drive the price to crazy areas before finding someone bidding or offering.

Anyways. I am still aiming to take profit on my EURUSD, "Say what?" yes you heard me. still aiming at 1.05 by year end. 1.0780 to tp before then. prove me wrong, I dare you, prove me the hell wrong.

pundits and false gurus on the EURUSD thread can just go ahead and suck my ****, PROVE ME WRONG!!! gosh is it so hard?? please prove me wrong by busting my account. go ahead. just TRY.


PS. Your trade explorer sucks, what happened to your account start date? why is it custom?? hiding your history of failure? and what the hell is that broker?? Traders' Way? I did some research on this broker and I don't see anywhere that this broker is regulated. good luck to your funds if you're trading live. It'll likely disappear one day without a single F*** you can do about it.

PPS. BTW im at 32 consecutive winning trades on the standard account.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
5 traders viewing now