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Honestly frustrated with trading forex

  • #101
  • Sep 19, 2015 12:13pm Sep 19, 2015 12:13pm
I only write what master Sun Tzu said "In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity".
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #102
  • Sep 19, 2015 7:42pm Sep 19, 2015 7:42pm
Quoting yaed
{quote} Well how about if decisions in the markets are NOT based on statistics at all? Sure you can gather statistics and look at it and make calculations and maybe have some fun. And maybe it sort of seems to make sense to do that. But what if it dont? {image}
We are talking at cross purposes here. I am categorically agreeing that decisions in the market are not made based on valid statistics. As my cat races over my keyboard and fires off a few pending trades do you really believe that statistics exactly captures that involuntary trade decision. Statistics is a hindsight measure and not a reason for itself for all trade decisions.....only some of them. What statistics however does is smooth the data to define 'global tendencies' which are approximations only associated with a historical dataset. It's power of predicting certainty increases as sample sets grow but is an unreliable tool when applied to small data sets such as short timeframes. It forms the whole basis for significant industry segments (the insurance industry, weather forcasters etc) that have a role to play in forecasting uncertainty.
  • #103
  • Sep 19, 2015 7:53pm Sep 19, 2015 7:53pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} We are talking at cross purposes here. I am categorically agreeing that decisions in the market are not made based on valid statistics. As my cat races over my keyboard and fires off a few pending trades do you really believe that statistics exactly captures that involuntary trade decision. Statistics is a hindsight measure and not a reason for itself for all trade decisions.....only some of them. What statistics however does is smooth the data to define 'global tendencies' which are approximations only associated with a historical dataset....
best post I've read in 6 months.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #104
  • Sep 19, 2015 8:09pm Sep 19, 2015 8:09pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} best post I've read in 6 months.
Most welcome shellsnail.

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  • #105
  • Sep 19, 2015 9:37pm Sep 19, 2015 9:37pm
Forex....
Forget what it is.Think of it only price goes down TDI cross, MA cross, candle pattern whatever your method you follow.
There are 2 types of traders one that follow and others who wait for price to reach certain level like harmonic S/R traders.
I used to be latter and only after switching to "follow" that I started cranking pips like crazy. Basically doubled my account in 2 months.
It was a truly a light bulb moment for me.
Only reason I am saying this is that its possible to make good consistent money in Forex.Don't get caught up in intellectual masturbations like "is forex random or not" and all that wasted discussion.
Think price goes up you go up goes down you go down.Simple.Keep it that way.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #106
  • Sep 19, 2015 9:39pm Sep 19, 2015 9:39pm
Hi there,

I feel your pain and as I've been there tons of time and am finally in a place where I can finally see consistency in my trading. I will try to point you to the right direction.

First let talk about methodology. If you don't have a good trading plan doesn't matter who your broker is you won't make money. So first and foremost make a solid trading plan.

Also with trading I personally believe the most important thing is to know YOURSELF. You can have the perfect system but if it doesn't match your psychology you will never be able to make profit trading it.

And as far as market randomness goes yes for sure the market is random. But lets see what we know.
1. There is an average range the market will move each day. Why don't you play the range?
2. How about fundamentals? Play the currency pairs with divergent monetary policy. I don't think thats very hard to predict if you take into account the range and of the currency for the last few months and just play that.
3. Lastly my favorite strategy playing the fake-out setup. Works most of the time with excellent risk: reward.

As far as thread in forexfactory goes these are the one I found most helpful:

This thread is excellent for developing mindset and a holistic trading approach:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639

This thread is excellent in giving you a basic understanding of how price action works. Later on he tries to sell his education service but if I were you would only stick with the free stuff as they are pretty good

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=206723

This thread contains some very good entry techniques. Also talk a lot about the advantage of stacking position. It's a bit vague about exits though
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245149

And finally 2 great trading journals. I believe both of them to be absolute gems as they both try to show how they trade the market:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=243924
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=237739


Hope this helps. Just remember to risk low and when the market turns beat the crap out of it. Just be nimble as if not the market will beat the crap out of you
  • #107
  • Sep 19, 2015 10:08pm Sep 19, 2015 10:08pm
I have been a prop trader since 1997...all of it in the stock market. What I know now is that the stock market is much too manipulated with algos and HFT. Every trader that I started with in the equities market is done and finished with equities and moved onto other careers. Many of us were consistent producers for our company for decades. Now it's next to impossible to make anything with these machines going in and out flashing quotes for milliseconds.

Tony, I have started with Forex and it is a much much better world. It is a much harder market to manipulate. The machine algo world is having an effect now but still a much better area to go into. I suggest you roll up your sleeve and really start looking at your trades. Are you too big; to greedy etc.. Are you too passive and risk averse? Do you have a plan? Are you making lots of little winners and losing absolutely huge losers? Do you have a money mgmt system in place? I can't tell you I am making a ton of money, but it's been a much better trading environment that I am operating in now and I believe the consistent profitability is close at hand. When I get better results I will start growing my trade size, but until then, I will remain discplined.

If you really want it, I believe the FX market is the best place to have an edge and to not deal with the scams that the stock market hides and fosters.

G
  • #108
  • Sep 19, 2015 11:38pm Sep 19, 2015 11:38pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} We are talking at cross purposes here. I am categorically agreeing that decisions in the market are not made based on valid statistics. As my cat races over my keyboard and fires off a few pending trades do you really believe that statistics exactly captures that involuntary trade decision. Statistics is a hindsight measure and not a reason for itself for all trade decisions.....only some of them. What statistics however does is smooth the data to define 'global tendencies' which are approximations only associated with a historical dataset....
Well then i feel we are a lot more akin on this issue. I have vague recollections you are relatively sane (logical).

I think that in general every day is unique. But there are behaviours that repeat. Nobody knows what the price is going to be 3 hours from now. However the markets work sort of with an "IF" logic: IF price gets X, it will probably get to Y. If price gets to Y it will probably get to Z. That sort of thing. The probabilities is maybe incalculable.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #109
  • Sep 19, 2015 11:39pm Sep 19, 2015 11:39pm
Quoting Davit
its possible to make good consistent money in Forex.Don't get caught up in intellectual masturbations like "is forex random or not" and all that wasted discussion. Think price goes up you go up goes down you go down.Simple.Keep it that way.
Agreed.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #110
  • Sep 19, 2015 11:55pm Sep 19, 2015 11:55pm
Quoting yaed
{quote} I have vague recollections you are relatively sane (logical).

Then peace to you yaed. It's those other nutters I worry about.

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  • #111
  • Sep 20, 2015 6:18am Sep 20, 2015 6:18am
Hi Tony,

First of all, what do you mean by "unpredictable"?
Everything in the world is predictable. The question is: can we predict? How far can we predict?
If we can not predict the market, how do we decide to buy or sell?

Please think it in different way, deeply.

It is crucial psychological side to be skillful in trading and in anything.

Note: everyday, we predict many things before deciding.



Quoting SuperzTony
The forex market is just too unpredictable or am I just too undisciplined, as I lost my account once again.
  • #112
  • Sep 20, 2015 6:50am Sep 20, 2015 6:50am
on a daily basis , you are actually trading with robots programmed accordance to human behavior , eg goldman sach they could ping 1000 trades in a single sec,metaphor analogy , etc. unless there is a credit event or interest rate shock , human can take over the trades. learn the infrastructure of financial institute , how hedgefunds hedge their positions;etc .
  • #113
  • Sep 20, 2015 7:59am Sep 20, 2015 7:59am
Quoting antonsatu
Hi Tony, First of all, what do you mean by "unpredictable"? Everything in the world is predictable. The question is: can we predict? How far can we predict?{quote}
Well say for instance that i place an order of 10 lots. Then price WILL move 10 ticks. It might not even be visible as 10 in a row since there might be countertrades. Its VERY predictible i agree. Only we dont have all the variables to compute the outcomes.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #114
  • Sep 20, 2015 8:31am Sep 20, 2015 8:31am
3 actions as a trader:

- Buy
- Sell
- Wait (for the market to come to you)

only two kinds of trades:

- didn't put enough money on it
- never should've taken it

Price Action:

- pay attention to levels all you want but that's not the true engine of price action. The true engine of price action (IMHO with a lot of data to back the theory) is in "distance traveled" which generates levels that give price a "context".

- all financial instruments have two "modes": buy the dip or sell the rip.

A few observations from your trade explorer:

- Over leveraging (making trades with too high of a pip value)

- entering at the wrong part of range. When you enter a trade on an instrument that has a daily range of X and it has traveled greater than X, an expectation of a continuation is an emotional response. Emotional responses are a VERY VERY VERY bad reason to enter any trade, yet, it's precisely what the big players in the marketplace and your broker want you to do. So, consider for a minute that it's not just your trading you have to work on.

>>>>>You have to be willing to work on you. <<<<<<<<


Recognize fear and greed so that you can learn to combat both of these things.

"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #115
  • Sep 20, 2015 2:35pm Sep 20, 2015 2:35pm
Yes, VERY PREDICTABLE.

Please learn hard, study it hard. There are many ways to profit from market, many ways to predict the market.

IF YOU SAY 'unpredictable', it's mean you haven't learn enough. OR YOU ARE BETTER NOT TO TRADE. Find other business.





Quoting yaed
{quote} Well say for instance that i place an order of 10 lots. Then price WILL move 10 ticks. It might not even be visible as 10 in a row since there might be countertrades. Its VERY predictible i agree. Only we dont have all the variables to compute the outcomes.
  • #116
  • Edited 7:49pm Sep 20, 2015 7:22pm | Edited 7:49pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} This I agree. Trading IS a business and it IS a full-time job. Unless you have coded your strategy and doing algorithm trading, you won't be able to do it part-time. {quote} This I do NOT agree. Give-up's are for wimps. We are traders.
I agree with most of the advice that you have given the OP but don't agree on above. I think it depends on your timeframe. If scalping then I probably agree (but having done little scalping am not experienced enough to know). If trading medium to longer term than being part time without coding is pretty easy. Personally I've never coded for any of my trades - it's not my area of expertise.

Quoting Forexia
{quote} A REAL broker shouldn't care whether you are a scalper and short-term trader or a long-term trader. As long as your trading strategy itself is profitable, you should be able to make money no matter how you trade, even more as a scalper or short-term trader. That's the whole point of us daytrade forex is to take advantage of its active intraday market. If I am going to just invest in a position and hold the position for a long time, why don't I just do that with a bank account in the foreign currency. Why would I bother to open a trading...
Have partially quoted you to focus on the part I wish to comment on. I agree with most of the above statements but wish to add my thoughts on the two questions. I think leverage and that brokers offer better exchange rates than banks are the answers. Probably depends again on timeframe though. If long term is 1 year plus than going with bank feasible.

Edit: broker vs bank for long term probably also depends on whether swaps are in your favour with the broker. If negative swaps with broker than bank becomes more attractive for invest physical currency.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #117
  • Sep 20, 2015 10:10pm Sep 20, 2015 10:10pm
Early morning i have read an illogical reason in the second post lol, i am using hotforex since 3 years and never busted any account with them everything working fine till now. anyway broker do not matter, your risk management is the only reason of killing your account.
  • #118
  • Sep 21, 2015 12:13am Sep 21, 2015 12:13am
Most of the people BLAME 'fear & greed'. But only a few say why they blame 'fear & greed'.

If you dont know what you are doing, fear happened. If you know little, greed happened.
  • #119
  • Edited 6:33am Sep 21, 2015 4:30am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting dab
{quote} I agree with most of the advice that you have given the OP but don't agree on above. I think it depends on your timeframe. If scalping then I probably agree (but having done little scalping am not experienced enough to know). If trading medium to longer term than being part time without coding is pretty easy. Personally I've never coded for any of my trades - it's not my area of expertise. {quote} Have partially quoted you to focus on the part I wish to comment on. I agree with most of the above statements but wish to add my thoughts on...
Well you have taken my post out of context a little bit as my post was in response to someone else's previous post advocating trading long term and in small positions just to ensure the broker won't stop-hunt them but True. I agree. Short-term and scalping aren't the only ways to be profitable in forex trading BUT one shouldn't be choosing to take small or micro positions and hold them for long term JUST to avoid being stop-hunted and/or any other price manipulations by the broker to make money. You shouldn't have to change your trading strategy including timeframe and position size just to accommodate or work with the broker; it should be the other way around. The broker should be able to accommodate any of your trading strategy and work WITH you to be profitable NOT AGAINST you to hinder your profitability. This is what I am trying to get at. If you find that you are not able to make a profit with your broker with your strategy when your strategy was consistently profitable in demo, you should change your broker NOT your strategy.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #120
  • Sep 21, 2015 4:59am Sep 21, 2015 4:59am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Well you have taken my post out of context a bit as my post was in response to someone else's previous post advocating trading long term and in small positions just to ensure the broker won't stop-hunt them but True. I agree. Short-term and scalping aren't the only ways to be profitable in forex trading BUT one shouldn't be choosing to take small or micro positions and hold them for long term JUST to avoid being stop-hunted and/or any other price manipulations by the broker to make money. You shouldn't have to change your trading strategy...
excuse me. my english isn't good but i have a question.i work with hot forex broker. and during FOMC and some important news last week , there is no stop - hunter or price manipulation on my demo account. here is my question: price on demo server and real is the same? i mean if i work with broker with demo acc and i realize that there is no price manipulation on demo , can i open a real account with them?thank u in advance
And falling's just another way to fly...
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