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Let's Trade Options

  • #10,681
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:23am Sep 17, 2015 1:23am
Quoting The Fool
if we break above /ES 2030 or so I will make decent money, will make decent money on a VXX crash back down to $20 or below.......
looking at the recent heavy moves for the index, daily ranges > 50 pts (SPY $5) a few, back on the late Aug China panic, the really big candle on 8/24, the reversal day, the range 150
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,682
  • Edited 1:57am Sep 17, 2015 1:47am | Edited 1:57am
if tshtf and the spoos tries for another 150-200 pt crash, my put spreads are all good, safe down to SPY $175.......but, if SPY rallies, my $205/$205.50 diag calls are in death slide danger, so I am going to buy some insurance against that with some cheap bull calls, maybe at the same strikes, and that will push the b/e out from $208.5 to $212+.

http://screencast.com/t/secOENt5M
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,683
  • Sep 17, 2015 2:04am Sep 17, 2015 2:04am
looking at recent big VXX moves, 8/24 again the biggie @ $6.66=R (!), but anything over $2.50 a big move, so I might look at cheap verticals or long calls/puts for Fri expiry....I'd rather not spend more than a nickel.
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-09-17_0003vxx1.png Size: 67 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,684
  • Sep 17, 2015 2:17am Sep 17, 2015 2:17am
13c for a $19.5/$26 Friday VXX strangle - you'd just need about a $2 move to make some money, a $4-5 pop or more could get you > $1.50 on a ~15c risk
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,685
  • Sep 17, 2015 2:28am Sep 17, 2015 2:28am
spend a little more and go out a week, do $18/$30 for 16c, and the b/e's are as shown on next Monday. Actually, these P/L graphers are trouble modeling something like VXX, because the iv flux is so large, but good as a starting point. The real danger is assessing the put side P/L, since crashing iv will reduce the value of the puts so much...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,686
  • Sep 17, 2015 9:21am Sep 17, 2015 9:21am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} This is probably why I haven't dipped my toe into futures yet ... . I'd be scratching my head ... a lot ("What, you mean December /ES futures expire in October?").
No, October /ES futures options have Dec /ES futures contracts as underlying, since there are only 4 contracts per year for indices futures.

One thing just to learn from the above post is -> that when futures contracts expire... meaning March, June, September and December contracts... corresponding March, June, September and December futures options expire before the open on the same day, 3rd Friday of the month. Just those 4 monthlies expiry are different. Any other weeklies or monthly expiry of the futures options expire when RTH finishes.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,687
  • Sep 17, 2015 9:28am Sep 17, 2015 9:28am
I am waiting for the JY show with no positions, cash only.

Thinking of making some positions with SPY Sep options, since Sep /ES options expire tomorrow before open... to give just a little more room and time.
Obviously, the premium that was yesterday in those options, are exactly the same today, because the FOMC is binary event... So, nothing is cheaper now, meaning the debit spreads.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,688
  • Sep 17, 2015 12:59pm Sep 17, 2015 12:59pm
Rock me baby Janet Yellen

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,689
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:00pm Sep 17, 2015 1:00pm
replace "Chaka Khan" with "Janet Yellen"

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,690
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:14pm Sep 17, 2015 1:14pm
back to SOS, same old shit. At least the ^VIX is looking like it will slide, I might make some money on Fridays bearish VXX trades. If SPY is gonna rally I need more than it's showing now......fizzzzzle
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,691
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:21pm Sep 17, 2015 1:21pm
Yihaaaaaa!... just rock tha boat... Press conf. in 10 min, keep your seat belts tight...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,692
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:21pm Sep 17, 2015 1:21pm
Quoting The Fool
back to SOS, same old shit. At least the ^VIX is looking like it will slide, I might make some money on Fridays bearish VXX trades. If SPY is gonna rally I need more than it's showing now......fizzzzzle
Yeah, nothing much so far.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,693
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:27pm Sep 17, 2015 1:27pm
Quoting StrayDog
Yeah, nothing much so far.
we should rally into the close ----- I'll need that and a follow thru tomorrow and a vix dump.....and a magic pony
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,694
  • Sep 17, 2015 2:40pm Sep 17, 2015 2:40pm
wow, a flat-line fomc, worst thing that I could get, never fails.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,695
  • Sep 17, 2015 3:11pm Sep 17, 2015 3:11pm
Usually this FED / FOMC things create a short-able spike for a quick scalp. No difference today.
Well, gonna hit the sack.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,696
  • Sep 17, 2015 5:01pm Sep 17, 2015 5:01pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} No, October /ES futures options have Dec /ES futures contracts as underlying, since there are only 4 contracts per year for indices futures. One thing just to learn from the above post is -> that when futures contracts expire... meaning March, June, September and December contracts... corresponding March, June, September and December futures options expire before the open on the same day, 3rd Friday of the month. Just those 4 monthlies expiry are different. Any other weeklies or monthly expiry of the futures options expire when RTH finishes....
Gotchya ... .

Amazed that I made money on this apparent non-event (so far); all depends on where we go from here ... . Fully expected to come home to a fairly significant intratrade drawdown, but my overall delta's an f'in mess (hugely short; I'll fix some of that next week). That being said, totally disappointed that we got no vol pop, so it's on to just managing current trades on, keeping powder dry for volatility ... . I'll go nuts if we have another three months of sub-25 VIX ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,697
  • Sep 17, 2015 5:11pm Sep 17, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
disappointed that we got no vol pop, so it's on to just managing current trades on, keeping powder dry for volatility ... . I'll go nuts if we have another three months of sub-25 VIX ... .
with rate hikes off the table until inflation numbers come around (never), I expect US equities to rally. Getting oil to trend up will help, idk. Maybe we find another range to trade - 1,900 - 2,000 +/-. Earning season coming up, I might have to watch some Robyn vids.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,698
  • Sep 17, 2015 6:51pm Sep 17, 2015 6:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} with rate hikes off the table until inflation numbers come around (never), I expect US equities to rally. Getting oil to trend up will help, idk. Maybe we find another range to trade - 1,900 - 2,000 +/-. Earning season coming up, I might have to watch some Robyn vids.....
Much as I hate doing earnings, gotta go to where the volatility is at ... . I did okay the last go around, but it seemed like a lot of nervousness for fast food money. I'd frankly rather just put on 35 IVR index trade setups, in spite of the fact they don't pay that well ... .

The only one on my radar for next week is NKE; IVR's currently 72 ... . Could get higher closer to the announcement ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,699
  • Sep 17, 2015 6:57pm Sep 17, 2015 6:57pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Much as I hate doing earnings, gotta go to where the volatility is at ... . I did okay the last go around, but it seemed like a lot of nervousness for fast food money. I'd frankly rather just put on 35 IVR index trade setups, in spite of the fact they don't pay that well ... . The only one on my radar for next week is NKE; IVR's currently 72 ... . Could get higher closer to the announcement ... .
The alternative would be sector ETF's with higher vol than the broader indices ... . Unfortunately, nothing is really giving me that "come hither" look ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,700
  • Sep 17, 2015 7:00pm Sep 17, 2015 7:00pm
SOS from the Fed means relief for bonds, especially high-yield - look for HYG to rally back to $90+ in the next month, look for TLT to get back north of $125 pdq
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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