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  • #21,921
  • Sep 16, 2015 9:52am Sep 16, 2015 9:52am
Quoting lukis
{quote} Up to point, seem like magic I kept my longs until now.
+200
  • #21,922
  • Sep 16, 2015 12:20pm Sep 16, 2015 12:20pm
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} +200
Yep well beyond
T@ will you be sharing market outlook for majors or it is better to stay out for tomorrow?
Thanks
  • #21,923
  • Sep 16, 2015 2:26pm Sep 16, 2015 2:26pm
Quoting lukis
{quote} Yep well beyond T@ will you be sharing market outlook for majors or it is better to stay out for tomorrow? Thanks
You are welcome . You can trade until 14 GMT
  • #21,924
  • Sep 17, 2015 12:10am Sep 17, 2015 12:10am
BTW tarantula, saw an opportunity to place a hedged strategy heading in FOMC....

For clients who have Long EURUSD exposure who worries about making a loss or reduced profits, I just got to Bloomberg to check the option pricing

For clients who are holding Long EURUSD, yet worried about the downside risk in the even that FED surprised and hikes.

here goes.

A long EURUSD PUT option with the following parameters are yielding a very low premium that clients have to pay to aquire the option to sell the eurusd in the event eurusd falls.

LONG EURUSD PUT (SPOT: 1.1295)
EXPIRY: TOMORROW
STRIKE: 1.12

PREMIUM if paid in EURO= 15 pips
or
PREMIUM if paid in USD = 19 pips

like seriously its like buying an insurance in the case that Yellen hikes... and the insurance is bloody cheap..... with the assumption that if EURUSD does fall from rate hike, its gona fall to atleast 1.1

Max lost = 15 pip/ 19 pip premium.
Max Gain if 1.1 happens = 1.12 strike - 15 pips/19 pips premium - 1.1 (if it does reach 1.1 after rate hike) = 185 pip gain or 181 pip gain....


Atleast that's what Bloomberg is showing right now for the option prices.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #21,925
  • Sep 17, 2015 12:45am Sep 17, 2015 12:45am
Quoting fxtyrant
BTW tarantula, saw an opportunity to place a hedged strategy heading in FOMC.... For clients who have Long EURUSD exposure who worries about making a loss or reduced profits, I just got to Bloomberg to check the option pricing For clients who are holding Long EURUSD, yet worried about the downside risk in the even that FED surprised and hikes. here goes. A long EURUSD PUT option with the following parameters are yielding a very low premium that clients have to pay to aquire the option to sell the eurusd in the event eurusd falls. LONG EURUSD PUT...
Hey, tyrant, long time did not see you posting out.
Will you be playing any trade any soon?
  • #21,926
  • Sep 17, 2015 12:47am Sep 17, 2015 12:47am
Quoting fx-anew
{quote} Hey, tyrant, long time did not see you posting out. Will you be playing any trade any soon?
in case you missed, you can.

1. check my standard account trade explorer see if you see any new trade (which there is 2 new trades from last night)
2. follow my twitter to see up to date status on new trades or opened trade status.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #21,927
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:20am Sep 17, 2015 1:20am
Quoting fxtyrant
BTW tarantula, saw an opportunity to place a hedged strategy heading in FOMC.... For clients who have Long EURUSD exposure who worries about making a loss or reduced profits, I just got to Bloomberg to check the option pricing For clients who are holding Long EURUSD, yet worried about the downside risk in the even that FED surprised and hikes. here goes. A long EURUSD PUT option with the following parameters are yielding a very low premium that clients have to pay to aquire the option to sell the eurusd in the event eurusd falls. LONG EURUSD PUT...
very nice alternative mate... but why place the expiry tomorrow and not after middle of december as an "add on" insurance?
  • #21,928
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:35am Sep 17, 2015 1:35am
Quoting KGP
{quote} very nice alternative mate... but why place the expiry tomorrow and not after middle of december as an "add on" insurance?
I guess the specific use of this "insurance" was to hedge against FOMC's spike. And an option with close expiry is cheaper. So it depends on what you need.
Also considering that if the "spike" goes in your favour, it's gonna happen tonight. Lol.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #21,929
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:58am Sep 17, 2015 1:58am
Quoting YvetteTeo
{quote} I guess the specific use of this "insurance" was to hedge against FOMC's spike. And an option with close expiry is cheaper. So it depends on what you need. Also considering that if the "spike" goes in your favour, it's gonna happen tonight. Lol.
well i am not very much into options trading (although i wouldnt mind "trying it") i was just asking because it feels that the option was more of a sure bet longer term rather than with such a close expiry ( if it didnt come to fruition today)
  • #21,930
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:58am Sep 17, 2015 1:58am
Quoting KGP
{quote} very nice alternative mate... but why place the expiry tomorrow and not after middle of december as an "add on" insurance?
cuz the longer you place the expiry, the higher the premium you have to pay to acquire the option mentioned. the reason why I place the expiry for tomorrow is specifically for people with LONG EURUSD exposure to hedge just in case EURUSD falls 300+ pips in the even yellen surprises all and hiked interest rates... its a pretty darn cheap insurance if you ask me.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #21,931
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:59am Sep 17, 2015 1:59am
Quoting KGP
{quote} well i am not very much into options trading (although i wouldnt mind "trying it") i was just asking because it feels that the option was more of a sure bet longer term rather than with such a close expiry ( if it didnt come to fruition today)
for people who actually hold the option I mentioned, and that yellen doesn't hike to cause market panic sell off on eurusd, ( ie your scenario that it doesn't come to fruition) all they would lose is the premium of 15-19 pips.....

Option trades are not supposed to be a "sure bet" trade, options being a derivative is suppose to be a hedging tool so you are not 100% exposed in Spot. another hedging tool is forwards.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #21,932
  • Sep 17, 2015 4:01am Sep 17, 2015 4:01am
Quoting fxtyrant
BTW tarantula, saw an opportunity to place a hedged strategy heading in FOMC.... For clients who have Long EURUSD exposure who worries about making a loss or reduced profits, I just got to Bloomberg to check the option pricing For clients who are holding Long EURUSD, yet worried about the downside risk in the even that FED surprised and hikes. here goes. A long EURUSD PUT option with the following parameters are yielding a very low premium that clients have to pay to aquire the option to sell the eurusd in the event eurusd falls. LONG EURUSD PUT...
Hey Brian
Thanks for this, always interesting to see some new research. Although i tend to be very conservative during FOMC.
  • #21,933
  • Sep 17, 2015 4:31am Sep 17, 2015 4:31am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Hey Brian Thanks for this, always interesting to see some new research. Although i tend to be very conservative during FOMC.
Well, I guess buying insurance is being conservative.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #21,934
  • Sep 17, 2015 5:38am Sep 17, 2015 5:38am
Quoting YvetteTeo
{quote} Well, I guess buying insurance is being conservative.
Need to read through statement carefully and draw conclusions. QE4 possible if they delay the hike for next year.
  • #21,935
  • Sep 17, 2015 6:01am Sep 17, 2015 6:01am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Need to read through statement carefully and draw conclusions. QE4 possible if they delay the hike for next year.
I don't think FED will do QE4 until at least a couple of months of dovish statement with a change from past neutral to hawkish statements. FEDs have transitioned to pushing out policies in a rather slow and steady manner which they have pledged to do. A sudden implementation of policy is going to be deadly.
We can draw our conclusions when that happens.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #21,936
  • Sep 17, 2015 7:29am Sep 17, 2015 7:29am
The EURJPY has made a substantial correction from 132.20 zone forming inverted head and shoulders pattern. As we can see H4 chart shows both M and inv H & S but the price is sitting exactly at M breakout point ( 2 ). We can clearly see 2 inner trend lines which are forming X cross confluence within POC zone ( 78.6, H3 , previous triple top swing ) 137.50-70. I have marked all important touches with red rectangles and we can observe how price respects it. Have in mind that today we will have a VERY important FED statement and volatility will be huge.
Fade moves usually happen during huge volatility and order liquidation can spur additional momentum. The price is too high at this point to long into ( the top of right shoulder + M breakout point -2 ). If the price rallies to POC zone it could reject but in that case 138.50 needs to hold the price. The target is 135.50-20 zone where the bottom of the shoulder is based. Showing both M and inv H & S is telling us that the price is undecided so another fade could happen in the POC zone. BE VERY cautious as I don't recommend any trading 2h prior to FOMC. Treat the analysis as possible move and it would be best to happen when the market volatility is normal.
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  • #21,937
  • Sep 17, 2015 7:40am Sep 17, 2015 7:40am
Quoting YvetteTeo
{quote} I don't think FED will do QE4 until at least a couple of months of dovish statement with a change from past neutral to hawkish statements. FEDs have transitioned to pushing out policies in a rather slow and steady manner which they have pledged to do. A sudden implementation of policy is going to be deadly. We can draw our conclusions when that happens.
Pay attention to stock markets. If they proceed in the south direction will b an early cue for QE4
  • #21,938
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:19pm Sep 17, 2015 1:19pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} for people who actually hold the option I mentioned, and that yellen doesn't hike to cause market panic sell off on eurusd, ( ie your scenario that it doesn't come to fruition) all they would lose is the premium of 15-19 pips..... Option trades are not supposed to be a "sure bet" trade, options being a derivative is suppose to be a hedging tool so you are not 100% exposed in Spot. another hedging tool is forwards.
Hello. Would you please be as kind enough to tell me what you saw in the charts to allow you to want to take long positions on gbp-usd prior to such high impact news?
  • #21,939
  • Sep 17, 2015 3:15pm Sep 17, 2015 3:15pm
Y think we may have good seel entries here breack retesting if it goes dowm will give goog seling oportunities your opinion t
i´m right ?
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Scalping
  • #21,940
  • Sep 17, 2015 7:50pm Sep 17, 2015 7:50pm
Well. the EURUSD long put option last night was of no use. since the opposite of a rate hike happened... oh well if people took that it is just a 15/19 pip cost insurance policy just in case yellen did hike. but im surprised USD is not really depreciating hard after last night....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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