Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 308 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,141
  • Sep 15, 2015 8:39am Sep 15, 2015 8:39am
Quoting dvarrin
{quote} Hi Alfonso, I'm sorry but I don't understand. Should not even a CP pattern remove an opposing zone? Where are the CP patterns and which opposing zones are they removing? Cheers, Daniel
Quoting Chawl
{quote} I can't remember where I got this but I've watched all 30+ videos on Alfonso's channel, probably it is a naturally recurring theme that sticks to mind but doesn't have its own clause in the documents. Perhaps nobody has asked a question about trend lines like yours till now As always, Alfonso might clear this.

We have quite a few CP pattenrs on the way up, the rallies are very weak, 50% candles, compression on the way up, once price drops and starts removing those 50% canldes CPs, we get new supply created after the ascending trendline is broken. CPs not needed to take out opposing area of demand when there are 3 or more clear ones, otherwise you'd never have new imbalances zones created in months. These scenarios have been tested over time, which is why that rule is there, there is always a reason.

Makes sense?
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,142
  • Sep 15, 2015 10:39am Sep 15, 2015 10:39am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} {quote} We have quite a few CP pattenrs on the way up, the rallies are very weak, 50% candles, compression on the way up, once price drops and starts removing those 50% canldes CPs, we get new supply created after the ascending trendline is broken. CPs not needed to take out opposing area of demand when there are 3 or more clear ones, otherwise you'd never have new imbalances zones created in months. These scenarios have been tested over time, which is why that rule is there, there is always a reason. Makes sense? Cheers, Alfonso
Thank you Alfonso ;-)
  • #6,143
  • Edited 1:59pm Sep 15, 2015 12:14pm | Edited 1:59pm
Hey guys and gals. I have to admit I am having one heck of a time with the "curve" I think some of the examples from post one must have been removed because of OTA. I have a chart below. Did I mark the curve correctly? Or is the curve just the fresh original demand and supply zone. I ask because I get lost when worrying about the trend on the curve time frame. So lets assume we are using three time frames. I am just looking for the curve on the highest one. I have seen many examples of Alfonso using areas that have been tested. Yet post 1 simply states that the curve is set by the nearest fresh OR unfresh level of supply/demand. To me that basically says the nearest levels on the "curve" time frame set the curve. Simple as that.

And just to double check we always trade in the direction of the Curve time frame, right?

Thanks,
Stockguy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Curve.png Size: 100 KB
  • #6,144
  • Sep 15, 2015 3:45pm Sep 15, 2015 3:45pm
Quoting Stockguy
Hey guys and gals. I have to admit I am having one heck of a time with the "curve" I think some of the examples from post one must have been removed because of OTA. I have a chart below. Did I mark the curve correctly? Or is the curve just the fresh original demand and supply zone. I ask because I get lost when worrying about the trend on the curve time frame. So lets assume we are using three time frames. I am just looking for the curve on the highest one. I have seen many examples of Alfonso using areas that have been tested. Yet post 1 simply...
Curve is the span between the nearest supply and demand zones which are 'not' CPs but CADCHF monthly and weekly curves seem tricky as we have no demand zone in control but the all-time-low instead. So I subjectively preferred to use the 'lowest' (not the latest) daily demand also as the bottom of the weekly (and monthly) curve in this particular case. Some others may also prefer to use the all-time-low or the weekly base for the curve bottom but I preferred this. Alfonso may correct me if this is a major mistake.

On weekly chart, I put a 'dummy' demand rectangle overlapping the lowest daily demand at the bottom just for the indicator to report the curve percent at top right, so it has no technical meaning. I also put the daily chart at the time of the all-time-low to show the lowest (not latest) daily demand.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADCHFWeekly.png Size: 53 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CADCHFDaily.png Size: 34 KB
Trade what you see..
  • #6,145
  • Sep 15, 2015 4:36pm Sep 15, 2015 4:36pm
Chawl, Thank you very much for responding. I have spent all day looking back at posts and post 1. Would you say that I marked the curve correctly below? It would seem that part of the curve is always going to be part of the current move. Look at my supply level below as an example.

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: curve1.png Size: 75 KB
  • #6,146
  • Sep 15, 2015 5:11pm Sep 15, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting Stockguy
Chawl, Thank you very much for responding. I have spent all day looking back at posts and post 1. Would you say that I marked the curve correctly below? It would seem that part of the curve is always going to be part of the current move. Look at my supply level below as an example. Thanks {image}
You are very welcome but sure it would be very nice if Alfonso confirmed my analysis Yes, curve must be a part of the current move by definition as it is calculated according to the current price.

My EURUSD analysis is somewhat different than yours, a picture will worth a thousand words here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 57 KB
Trade what you see..
  • #6,147
  • Sep 15, 2015 5:26pm Sep 15, 2015 5:26pm
Quoting Chawl
{quote} I'm afraid thread rules prohibits analyses below H4 to be published here
AH CRAP! You know what. I know that. I have read Alfonso tell other people that so many times that its not funny. I got so wrapped up in this thread and charts that I forgot completely about that. Thanks for reminding me. I will delete it now.

Done! Sorry Alfonso
  • #6,148
  • Sep 15, 2015 5:36pm Sep 15, 2015 5:36pm
Quoting Chawl
{quote} You are very welcome but sure it would be very nice if Alfonso confirmed my analysis Yes, curve must be a part of the current move by definition as it is calculated according to the current price. My EURUSD analysis is somewhat different than yours, a picture will worth a thousand words here. {image}
Thanks Chawl,
So I am trying to make it click how you are drawing the curve. Would it be right for me to say that you drew trend lines on the last two peaks and valleys. And when those trend lines got broken that gave you your supply and demand to set the curve? I hope this is right as your post helps me lots. So next you would go down to the lower time frames and trade based on trend and curve, right?

So it does not really matter then if those levels take out their opposing levels?

Thanks again!
  • #6,149
  • Sep 15, 2015 6:13pm Sep 15, 2015 6:13pm
One more try to mark the curve here. Marks are on the chart.

Thanks,
Stockguy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: curve2.png Size: 86 KB
  • #6,150
  • Edited 8:44pm Sep 15, 2015 7:47pm | Edited 8:44pm
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} Thanks Chawl, So I am trying to make it click how you are drawing the curve. Would it be right for me to say that you drew trend lines on the last two peaks and valleys. And when those trend lines got broken that gave you your supply and demand to set the curve? I hope this is right as your post helps me lots. So next you would go down to the lower time frames and trade based on trend and curve, right? So it does not really matter then if those levels take out their opposing levels? Thanks again!
U r welcome, I hope my analysis was right though Trend line breaks always produce valid zones and yes, I did exactly like you've said but EURUSD is quite dizzy and I can't say that I like the price action on this pair nowadays, so I beware. My trade timeframe is H4 and again yes, I always check where the price is on the curves of higher time frames and the overall trend before setting a trade.
Trade what you see..
  • #6,151
  • Edited 8:43pm Sep 15, 2015 8:16pm | Edited 8:43pm
Quoting Stockguy
One more try to mark the curve here. Marks are on the chart. Thanks, Stockguy {image}
My curve is again somewhat different Some remarks are on the image. I hope our last analyses have some truth in them, otherwise Alfonso will have many corrections to make tomorrow
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: curve2.png Size: 105 KB
Trade what you see..
  • #6,152
  • Sep 16, 2015 4:39am Sep 16, 2015 4:39am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} You are very welcome but sure it would be very nice if Alfonso confirmed my analysis Yes, curve must be a part of the current move by definition as it is calculated according to the current price. My EURUSD analysis is somewhat different than yours, a picture will worth a thousand words here. {image}
Yes, that's the curve on EURUSD my friend, previous peak and rallies after the trendline break... CPs are not counted as part of the curve if the trendline is broken, we need to lean on valleys and peaks if the TL in that direction is broken.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,153
  • Sep 16, 2015 4:41am Sep 16, 2015 4:41am
Quoting Stockguy
This is something that I have noticed. I don't know how this fits into this system, but it seems to work well. I am not trying to showcase something different. I am just showing something I have noticed. I am assuming this fits into Alfonso method. Right now the many time frames seem to play games with me. Thats the hardest part with watching the past videos. What do you guys all think? Thanks, {image} {image}
Quoting Chawl
{quote} I'm afraid thread rules prohibit analyses below H4 to be published here
As another fellow trader pointed out, the thread's rules do not allow timeframes lower than H4. You can use other timeframes to ask you questions about the curve. Please kindly remove the previous post where you have attached lower timeframes.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,154
  • Sep 16, 2015 5:52am Sep 16, 2015 5:52am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Yes, that's the curve on EURUSD my friend, previous peak and rallies after the trendline break... CPs are not counted as part of the curve if the trendline is broken, we need to lean on valleys and peaks if the TL in that direction is broken. Cheers, Alfonso
A nice dose of confidence for me, thank u Alfonso
Trade what you see..
  • #6,155
  • Sep 16, 2015 6:58am Sep 16, 2015 6:58am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} {quote} As another fellow trader pointed out, the thread's rules do not allow timeframes lower than H4. You can use other timeframes to ask you questions about the curve. Please kindly remove the previous post where you have attached lower timeframes. Cheers, Alfonso
It should be gone soon. I submitted the cleanup within 10 seconds of Chawl reminding me. Sorry about that. I will submit another example.

Next time its from Alfonso. lol
  • #6,156
  • Sep 16, 2015 7:04am Sep 16, 2015 7:04am
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} It should be gone soon. I submitted the cleanup within 10 seconds of Chawl reminding me. Sorry about that. I will submit another example. Next time its from Alfonso. lol
If I'm not wrong there is a 'Delete Post' button if you edit your post Or probably you can delete all content with a note like 'Edit: Wrong post.' or something.
Trade what you see..
  • #6,157
  • Sep 16, 2015 7:22am Sep 16, 2015 7:22am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} {quote} As another fellow trader pointed out, the thread's rules do not allow timeframes lower than H4. You can use other timeframes to ask you questions about the curve. Please kindly remove the previous post where you have attached lower timeframes. Cheers, Alfonso
Ok guys. Here is an example on a HTF. Marks are all on the chart. Is this what Alfonso is trying to teach us? Maybe I am just looking at part of the system or looking at it differently.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly.png Size: 92 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 240min.png Size: 128 KB
  • #6,158
  • Sep 16, 2015 7:24am Sep 16, 2015 7:24am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} If I'm not wrong there is a 'Delete Post' button if you edit your post Or probably you can delete all content with a note like 'Edit: Wrong post.' or something.
Hey thanks Chawl. I did not know there was a delete button after you hit edit. I thought you had to "clean it up." I just deleted it.

Thanks again
  • #6,159
  • Sep 16, 2015 7:27am Sep 16, 2015 7:27am
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} Hey thanks Chawl. I did not know there was a delete button after you hit edit. I thought you had to "clean it up." I just deleted it. Thanks again
Trade what you see..
  • #6,160
  • Sep 16, 2015 8:10am Sep 16, 2015 8:10am
Question to the rectangle reader. If old SD gets broken will it not removed automatically or do I need to remove manual. All remaining lines on lower TF make the template full.
Is there a pdf?
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