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Let's Trade Options

  • #10,641
  • Sep 13, 2015 3:35am Sep 13, 2015 3:35am
come to me baby, don't be shy, don't be shy..............SPY combos are looking good, the one shown is maybe best because of the $185 puts calendar, others don't have it but all have the $180/$181 diag puts and some kind of calls diag around $205-$207....obviously I need the spoos to freak & drop 100-150 by the end of the week....$2100 payoff for a perfect finish at SPY $183 would be a ~40% account rise.....5 td's to glory

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,642
  • Sep 13, 2015 3:53am Sep 13, 2015 3:53am
VXX combos are more dicey, but set up for a binary FOMC result. If the vix slides after Thursday I will likely cash out the bfly and let the week after $19 puts calendar try to reach its sweet spot. If the vix spikes I will hold the bfly into the following weeks so it has a chance of doing the same....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,643
  • Sep 13, 2015 4:05pm Sep 13, 2015 4:05pm
Fingers crossed for everybody ... . Hate it when the best thing to do is absolutely nothing at all ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,644
  • Sep 13, 2015 10:00pm Sep 13, 2015 10:00pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Fingers crossed for everybody ... . Hate it when the best thing to do is absolutely nothing at all ... .
Kind of a relief actually, I need to buckle down and get a ton of work done at the beginning of the week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,645
  • Edited 3:50am Sep 14, 2015 3:11am | Edited 3:50am
if you're going to trade futures you can trade spreads to control your risk, similar (somewhat) to doing options spread trades....

http://www.danielstrading.com/broker...ding-software/
https://www.cannontrading.com/commun...utures-spreads
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=20927

some good stuff in this thread off elitetrader
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index....rading.223378/

http://www.trackntrade.com/
https://www.seasonalgo.com/
http://ampfutures.com/cqg_spreader.php

http://www.cqg.com/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,646
  • Sep 14, 2015 1:38pm Sep 14, 2015 1:38pm
/ES -> All this coiling makes condition for a massive move after FOMC. A relief rally + short squeeze, OR a nice bear party.
I am thinking about cheap Reverse Iron Condor on /ES, using Sep expiry. Possible entry on Wednesday, both parts, i.e. both debit spreads entered separately.
Maybe do the same with some other expiry, OR do just one side, if I feel confident, after the initial move.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,647
  • Sep 14, 2015 1:42pm Sep 14, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting StrayDog
/ES -> All this coiling makes condition for a massive move after FOMC.
could be one of those binary events where a cheap long strangle could actually work, will be looking at them on Wednesday
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,648
  • Sep 14, 2015 5:59pm Sep 14, 2015 5:59pm
Quoting The Fool
if you're going to trade futures you can trade spreads to control your risk, similar (somewhat) to doing options spread trades.... http://www.danielstrading.com/broker...ding-software/ https://www.cannontrading.com/commun...utures-spreads http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=20927 some good stuff in this thread off elitetrader http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index....rading.223378/...
Thanks for the resources ... . Something to keep in the back of my mind. Now if I can just get over the FOMC "hump" ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,649
  • Sep 14, 2015 6:01pm Sep 14, 2015 6:01pm
cue theme from Jeopardy

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,650
  • Sep 14, 2015 6:09pm Sep 14, 2015 6:09pm
UNG broke 13 ... . I guess that's "progress" of sorts on my Jan 12/13 debit spread ... . Was frankly hoping for a dip back toward 12.50 to add ... .

Still got my eyeballs on FXE. EUR/USD put in its first red daily candle after a series of greens, and I'd like to add short call vertage around here somewhere, but, as usual, waiting for FOMC ... . Don't want to shoot my wad too early (did that before); we could see another pop in FXE to 14.5 plus, but I'd probably settle for movement toward 12.5 to put something on ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,651
  • Sep 14, 2015 6:17pm Sep 14, 2015 6:17pm
I am in lots of UNG spreads, but they all out Jan '16, so hurry up and wait on those. I pretty regularly build spread models on FXE puts and they are just not worth the margin. I might better try legging into something or just buying cheap puts for a deep dip fantasy.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,652
  • Sep 14, 2015 9:02pm Sep 14, 2015 9:02pm
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,653
  • Sep 14, 2015 9:07pm Sep 14, 2015 9:07pm
lots of good vids at BigMikeTrading on youtube....

https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...g+mike+trading
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,654
  • Sep 14, 2015 9:35pm Sep 14, 2015 9:35pm
Quoting The Fool
if you're going to trade futures you can trade spreads to control your risk, similar (somewhat) to doing options spread trades.... http://www.danielstrading.com/broker...ding-software/ https://www.cannontrading.com/commun...utures-spreads http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=20927 some good stuff in this thread off elitetrader http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index....rading.223378/...
  • #10,655
  • Sep 14, 2015 9:39pm Sep 14, 2015 9:39pm
Quoting The Fool
lots of good vids at BigMikeTrading on youtube.... https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...g+mike+trading
I totally agree. Watching these professionals share their insights, some of whom have been trading for more than 30 years full time, is truly inspiring.
You reap what you sow.
  • #10,656
  • Sep 14, 2015 10:13pm Sep 14, 2015 10:13pm
Quoting NorthTrader
I totally agree. Watching these professionals share their insights, some of whom have been trading for more than 30 years full time, is truly inspiring.
below is a better link, direct to the BMT youtube page, 153 vids on there, most 1-2 hour webinars.
https://www.youtube.com/user/BigMikeTrading
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,657
  • Sep 14, 2015 10:18pm Sep 14, 2015 10:18pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} below is a better link, direct to the BMT youtube page, 153 vids on there, most 1-2 hour webinars. https://www.youtube.com/user/BigMikeTrading
Something to gander at in lieu of contemplating my navel pre-FOMC ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,658
  • Sep 14, 2015 10:31pm Sep 14, 2015 10:31pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Something to gander at in lieu of contemplating my navel pre-FOMC ... .
yah I am totally in wait/see mode....might look at some weekly trades on Wed, might not
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,659
  • Sep 14, 2015 10:58pm Sep 14, 2015 10:58pm
looking at FXE Sep4 strangles, the premise: a big reaction to the FOMC sets off a trending move for fiber. The $114/$108 needs 300 pips either way to b/e on a 35c debit. A 500 pip move would net $1.60...I would shade this south, maybe look at $113/$107
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,660
  • Sep 15, 2015 10:53am Sep 15, 2015 10:53am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yah I am totally in wait/see mode....might look at some weekly trades on Wed, might not
Rolling a few "too close for comfort" credit spread setups with this week's expiry out of harm's way ... . Otherwise, hand-sitting ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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