(binned per thread starter’s request) Times Two Challenge

Finally we are talking

Risk: Amount you are willing to loose per trade, say I am willing to loose 5% of equity/trade and my weekly target is 15% of equity (using the popular 1:3 Risk-Reward ratio).

Now comes practical application:

I have $100, on every trade I am willing to loose $5, now I could loose it on a varying amount of pips (depending on my choice of lot-size), generally the lower the lot-size the harder it is to loose the $5 and the harder it also is to make the $15, lower lot-size would require greater pips (most likely also a higher number of trades to be taken/week) my experience in trading says the more the number of trades the more the frequency of losses.

Actually risk is only really defined when an S.L is set, before that it's 100% of your equity regardless of lot-size. So I have to decide the max S.L I can have on any given trade, which depends on lot-size, not forgetting the number of trades (what governs these decisions?)

As you can see there is no clear definition on lot-size, S.L or no. of trades to be chosen using this suggestion. My method helps me define no. of trades (to a given degree) and lot-size. I believe S.L always varies, as does T.P.

I might be wrong with my assumptions, this is your suggestion, you could shed more light on the method (it could be useful to other viewers).

You've probably had it with people who say that everything is entirely up to you to decide, but its literally entirely up to you to decide. That includes how you want to manage risk. 'R' multiples are only useful if you have a fixed amount that represents your maximum loss per trade. Its also possible to do without this. What you end up doing is not as important as having thought about it and understanding it fully.

USDCAD: SELL
This trade is against all my rules:
Reason for taking it: Price is at the all time high area, tested 4 times already, as its against rules S.L is the tightest.

EURAUD: SELL
Reason for trade
- Price below whole number
- Price below 96 MA
- PBF below 0

Reason not to trade
- Pre London session

**UPDATE**
USDCAD: Stopped out, S.L was too tight. Now look for re-entry.
EURAUD: Set S.L to B.E, added tentative T.P

**UPDATE II**
- Both trades going as observed, secured trades with S.L, looking for potential exit on USDCAD (next whole number is preferred).

**UPDATE III**
- Both trades exited via S.L, the market gives what the market wants.

GBPCAD: SELL

Reasons for trade:
-Below 96EMA
-PBF below 0
-Price rejected upper whole number level multiple times

Reasons not to take trade:
-Pre london session
-News in a few hours

No S.L/T.P set yet

**UPDATE**
Exited both trades at B.E - pair is acting up before news , too random for my liking.

To Note: When the market isn't behaving as expected, stay on the sidelines.
Problem: Sell bias needs to be exorcised from my sub-conscious.

GBPNZD: Sell

Reason for trade: multiple price rejection at whole number.
Reasons not to trade: Against standard rules.

Another lesson for me in trade

GBPNZD: SELL (5min)

Reasons for trade:
-Expectation, sell bias
-setup on 5min instead of 15min chart as standard

Trade management fail. Had chance to exit at minor loss, ignored.

Its tough keeping a Journal.

Previous trade took a loss, as usually happens, it still went as observed - south. Problem is the Risk of being wrong out-weighed the rewards.
Result: A good loss.

GBPCAD: SELL
Reasons for trade:
- Rejection of upper whole number
- Gut feeling.

Reasons not to trade:
- Did not pass stated rules.

- S.L set, tentative T.P set.

**UPDATE**
-Trade stopped out by S.L, look towards re-entry. (S.L was modified, I should practice leaving S.L after initial setting)

Missed the GBPJPY sell train, sleeping, times like this I wish I could finish an EA.

EURCAD: SELL

Reasons for trade
- Rejection below whole number
- Below 96EMA
- PBF not zero but close to Zero [it gets out of sync, I am considering other alternatives]

Reasons not to trade
- Not much, [EUR, USD impact news] but that is past noW

TP: Set, no S.L set

For record keeping.

Developing Theory

My base theory of price movement is that it seeks 'whole' numbers, these are my support and resistance levels, if price breaks a whole number, it seeks to get to the next whole number, if it cannot, it goes back to the previous whole number.

If price is has been rejected by upper and lower whole numbers it is in RANGE, to interpret Bull/Bear pressure, the amount of time price lingers above/below the mid point during this range indicates the BIAS.

I will observe and try to document the validity of this theory.

EURCAD update

Again I got stopped out via S.L [it was too tight]

Slept of and missed the train today, remember pips always come, don't beat yourself over missed pips.

Classic behavioral pattern took precedence today causing an unnecessary setback

Took a revenge sell trade on the GBPJPY, was so overcome with missed sell opportunities I reacted negatively

GBPJPY: SELL

- Reason for trade: revenge behavioral pattern.
- Reason not to trade: News, Market random

Fortunately, I spotted the news & pattern unfolding in time and put an S.L, took an average loss.

Current Trade:

USDCAD:SELL

Reason for trade:
- price rejected upper whole number and has remained near bottom whole number for a while.
- price below 96EMA
- PBF below 0
Reason not to trade:
- News in two hours.


Note: I have observed PBF_OSOB gets out of sync regularly. It's validity over is questionable. It will be removed from my template. Post 1 will be updated.

Trade update:

USDCAD: Exited due to weird movement before news. Re-entry after news. S.L moved to B.E.
Tried for a "sell at the top" gamble on GBPNZD - got burnt seriously. Thou shall not gamble on thy account!

Bored, lots of free time, so here I post again.

I won't be replying anyone here, in keeping with a journal style.

GBPJPY:
Missed the W move on the 29th as I was trying to prove a point on the EURGBP,
entered expecting a pull-back not my style but meh why not

Got out for a loss, meh.

Lesson:

If the trade is wasting time, get out.
Put some respect on the 00 levels name??

Decided to re-enter, risk is small...15 or so pips

Price has stalled for 4 hrs and its 00 level, so why not.

UPDATE: SL got taken out... and then moved as anticipated. Shucks I've always hated SLs

Re-entered and got out for a little profit.

Nice W, couldn't resist.

One part says, should've hammered it and waited for the long run,
the other part says, take what you can and go, ain't shit promised to you by the market

Also took an L on the CHF (when it could've been a good run of pips), hate when this shit happens to me

One problem with trading is the waiting, most times there's nothing interesting going on.

Then BAM! all the action happens ...and it's back to a long period of waiting.

Boring.

Decided to bite the bullet on the EURCAD. Sell

That previous Buy? Went in and got out for 2 pips or so, cos I wanted to sleep, like can you believe. smh.

No one can look at this chart and not be seduced into taking that trade, it's impossible, she's too sexy. If I lose I lose.

Took a loss on that trade...and then what do you know, it went back-up. smh.
Was also in a EURCAD trade which I switched for a USDCAD cos it moved too slow,
got hit on that too and what do you know the EURCAD moves. I love the markets.

Trading is long times of doing nothing followed by "woah", so I try to fill up the space by doing 'research' on various ways to skin this cat.

I've got 3 different knives:

1. Discretionary
2. Quantitative
3. Brute force, Automated

2 has stalled as building a platform has proved tougher than I want

For 3: It seems possible to reduce losses to 0 barring slippage and swap via brute force, an achievement imho, profits are also minimal and can become time consuming.

Further research will continue while waiting for EURUSD to head South already