Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 307 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,121
  • Sep 13, 2015 12:59am Sep 13, 2015 12:59am
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} Thanks for responding Alfonso. I appreciate your time for answering. Thats helps tons. I have read this thread from the start and often still go back to various times to read pages. I can tell you changed or adapted to other methods as this forum progressed. In one of the videos you even mention "the new alignment rules as somebody called them." I know to be careful now as I progress. Otherwise I start to mix up old rules with the new ones. SO your rules in the private community just deal with the alignment rules? Thanks
I haven't change to other method's or rules, what I said on another video is that someone else was using the realignment term for another thing (the first strategy that I learnt, a 6/12 ema cross with something else, that was a realignment), and the term just made sense to what price does when supply and demand zones are broken.

Nothing has changed from the beginning, there are just more nuances and more rules as time goes by and new experiences and patterns are found, that's all. The realignment rule is the core rule, there are others, but that's the main one.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,122
  • Sep 13, 2015 1:01am Sep 13, 2015 1:01am
Quoting Bernhard
Does the rectangle reader work on ticks? How do I get it to work on weekend or offline?
Use the right mouse button refresh option that MT provides or install a tick generator so ticks can be generated during the weekends or when market is closed.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,123
  • Sep 13, 2015 1:06am Sep 13, 2015 1:06am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} Hint: Trend lines
So let me zoom it for trendlines conditions. got lot of questions to ask
1. is the valley (demand zone) for creating the ascending trendline is valid? when is valid and why? when isnot valid and why?
2. if the valley that form the ascending trendline is valid, then when the ascending trendline broke at circled number1 makes valley is no longer valid? but the low curve of blue rectangle still valid as HTF demand?
3. is the peak (supply zone) for creating the descending trendline is valid? when is valid and why? when is not valid and why?
4. if the peak that form the descending trendline is valid, the nwhen the descending trendline broke at circled number2 makes peak is no longer valid? but the high curve of red rectangle still valid as HTF supply? eventhough price violated that red rectangle
5. and after all, my very big question
(i) why blue rectangle considered as demand zone? is it because the zone violating supply? which supply? is the supply is validated?
(ii) why red rectangle considered as supply zone? is it because the zone violating demand? which demand? is the demand is validated?
infinite loop and looks like ive a problem in determining the very trigger of it. More like, the very beginning of who violated who

any insight will be noted
Thank you very much
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  • #6,124
  • Sep 13, 2015 3:42am Sep 13, 2015 3:42am
Quoting Sants
{quote} So let me zoom it for trendlines conditions. got lot of questions to ask 1. is the valley (demand zone) for creating the ascending trendline is valid? when is valid and why? when isnot valid and why? 2. if the valley that form the ascending trendline is valid, then when the ascending trendline broke at circled number1 makes valley is no longer valid? but the low curve of blue rectangle still valid as HTF demand? 3. is the peak (supply zone) for creating the descending trendline is valid? when is valid and why? when is not valid and why?...
Considering your questions and your trend line technique, it seems you haven't done your homework yet I recommend you to watch these and yes, they're long: https://www.youtube.com/user/supplya...ndforex/videos
Trade what you see..
  • #6,125
  • Sep 13, 2015 4:53am Sep 13, 2015 4:53am
Quoting Sants
{quote} So let me zoom it for trendlines conditions. got lot of questions to ask 1. is the valley (demand zone) for creating the ascending trendline is valid? when is valid and why? when isnot valid and why? 2. if the valley that form the ascending trendline is valid, then when the ascending trendline broke at circled number1 makes valley is no longer valid? but the low curve of blue rectangle still valid as HTF demand? 3. is the peak (supply zone) for creating the descending trendline is valid? when is valid and why? when is not valid and why?...
As another fellow trader pointed out in another message before me, you haven't done your homework. We can't help if you don't do your homework, please take your time, it's not a short process, you need to understand the rules. Read the rules in post #1.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,126
  • Sep 13, 2015 4:57am Sep 13, 2015 4:57am
Quoting Stockguy
Hey guys. What does everyone think of my analysis here? I know this move already happened. I am just seeing if I am explaining things alright or not. Thanks, Stockguy {image} {image} {image}
Just a couple of comments. That dark blue supply on weekly should be drawn smaller, it's also nested wtihin a mothly single monthly supply zone that took out opposing Monthly demand zone.

Monthly has a piercing pattern and ascending trendline confluence, long bias.

The daily supply you say that did not take out any demand did in fact clearly take out demand zone, it even closed below it, check it out please
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,127
  • Edited 9:45am Sep 13, 2015 9:33am | Edited 9:45am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} Considering your questions and your trend line technique, it seems you haven't done your homework yet I recommend you to watch these and yes, they're long: https://www.youtube.com/user/supplya...ndforex/videos
Quoting panoramia
{quote} As another fellow trader pointed out in another message before me, you haven't done your homework. We can't help if you don't do your homework, please take your time, it's not a short process, you need to understand the rules. Read the rules in post #1. Cheers, Alfonso
Hmm am i doing it wrong? because i looked at your video previously and using the trendlines for ascending one is take two obvious valley. The blue rectangle connects the valley forward and create an ascending trendline isnt it? About the descending trendline, yeah im unsure its a correct one due to unperfect 2nd peak formed by the price. But actually, not my mind to ask about the trendlines i want to know, how far i need to look left to find the very first validated zone and who violated who

edit: omg forgive my sins, i miss-read the rules "the second valley's leg needs to make HH". I read it as "The second valley needs to make HL" <<<(of course la ascending trendline will be formed by a LOW and a HIGHER LOW). thats why both ascending and descending trendline is invalid.
  • #6,128
  • Sep 13, 2015 10:54am Sep 13, 2015 10:54am
Quoting Sants
{quote} {quote} Hmm am i doing it wrong? because i looked at your video previously and using the trendlines for ascending one is take two obvious valley. The blue rectangle connects the valley forward and create an ascending trendline isnt it? About the descending trendline, yeah im unsure its a correct one due to unperfect 2nd peak formed by the price. But actually, not my mind to ask about the trendlines i want to know, how far i need to look left to find the very first validated zone and who violated who edit: omg forgive my sins, i miss-read...
For the very first valid zone, you should probably look left as far as January 2002 for EURUSD, May 1850 for USDCHF, July 1871 for USDJPY etc. because first valid zones were probably around somewhere on the issue dates of the currencies.

You are asking that question in search of the origin of the universe because you think that zone validation can only be achieved by removing an opposing zone but trend lines, all time highs/lows, and even 3:1 rallies may validate things. That's why we've both adviced you to do your homework thus you can ask meaningful questions to get meaningful answers. There is no shortcut to success, though method seems simple, it has many details which every tiny bit of them is essential.

And IMHO, your both trend lines are wrong indeed

Check Alfonso's videos on his YouTube channel please, their titles are self explanatory.
Trade what you see..
  • #6,129
  • Sep 13, 2015 4:10pm Sep 13, 2015 4:10pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Just a couple of comments. That dark blue supply on weekly should be drawn smaller, it's also nested wtihin a mothly single monthly supply zone that took out opposing Monthly demand zone. Cheers, Alfonso
Hey Alfonso. Thanks for your replies. I am actually happy with your feedback. Two of the things were me just being sloppy and not pointing everything out. Here are my marks and revisions on the monthly and weekly. The first chart is the first post and the second is the same chart with my changes.

Thanks,
Stockguy
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  • #6,130
  • Sep 13, 2015 4:16pm Sep 13, 2015 4:16pm
Here is the daily chart Alfonso. This one I am not as sure about. I have also attached a third chart with an addition question.

Thank You,
Stockguy
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  • #6,131
  • Sep 13, 2015 8:39pm Sep 13, 2015 8:39pm
Quoting Chawl
{quote} For the very first valid zone, you should probably look left as far as January 2002 for EURUSD, May 1850 for USDCHF, July 1871 for USDJPY etc. because first valid zones were probably around somewhere on the issue dates of the currencies. You are asking that question in search of the origin of the universe because you think that zone validation can only be achieved by removing an opposing zone but trend lines, all time highs/lows, and even 3:1 rallies may validate things. That's why we've both adviced you to do your homework...
Yeah i did it for EURUSD
hmm those terms i noticed from Alfonso's video, but for me (sorry no offense in this thread) the very valid zone is where a zone violate the opposing zone, Why? because theoritically, a supply will be called a supply if there're demand but the demand isnot sufficient enough to hold seller, vice versa. Anw, i am going to take into account those terms aside from opposing zone violation

and yeah, from previous posts, ive admired that my trendlines are wrong suppose to be second valley's leg create HH

Thanks for the insight bro, anything noted
  • #6,132
  • Sep 14, 2015 2:25am Sep 14, 2015 2:25am
Hello fellow traders,

Those who joined the webinar's mailing list should have received a link to join today's live webinar on Indian shares. I didn't mention it over here because those interested in attending should have joined that mailing list by now, sorry if you couldn't attend it.

This is the first time I do a live analysis on Indian shares. I didn't know which ones to choose but Neelam, one of the members, kindly sent me a list of them, which is the ones that were covered in today's webinar.

We've covered the basic rules again, drawing trendlines and zones and applying the realignment levels while looking for high odds nested Daily demand zones within the bigger timeframes. Even though most of your are not trading shares, I believe you should watch this webinar, it explains some tricky scenarios and high odds setups.

These Indian instruments were analysed:

  1. Nifty index
  2. Bank Nifty
  3. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
  4. Maruti
  5. Marksans
  6. Coal India
  7. Bharti Airtel
  8. Ashok Leyland
  9. Amara Jabat
  10. Idea
  11. Gold and Apple were also analysed

Hope you have a great Monday and week. Today is holidays where I am now so I'm leaving now to look for some new spots to photograph. Enjoy your day

Cheers,
Alfonso

Inserted Video
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,133
  • Sep 14, 2015 3:55am Sep 14, 2015 3:55am
Hi Alfonso,

I'm watching your last webinar about Indian Market, but I don't understand your monthly analysis of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries. You've drawn a supply zone after the big drop in price, because you've said that an ascending trend line is broken.
If we can draw an ascending trend line, then it means that the trend is up, but to be able to draw an ascending trend line we need HH and HL, what we have, but also a supply zone to be taken out. No supply zone has been taken out here. Am I wrong?

Cheers,
Daniel
  • #6,134
  • Sep 14, 2015 4:05am Sep 14, 2015 4:05am
Quoting dvarrin
Hi Alfonso, I'm watching your last webinar about Indian Market, but I don't understand your monthly analysis of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries. You've drawn a supply zone after the big drop in price, because you've said that an ascending trend line is broken. If we can draw an ascending trend line, then it means that the trend is up, but to be able to draw an ascending trend line we need HH and HL, what we have, but also a supply zone to be taken out. No supply zone has been taken out here. Am I wrong? Cheers, Daniel
Hi Daniel,

A trendline break makes a new supply/demand zone. Trendlines can be aggressive or not aggressive depending on CPs as per the rules. Please upload chart
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,135
  • Sep 14, 2015 4:27am Sep 14, 2015 4:27am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Daniel, A trendline break makes a new supply/demand zone. Trendlines can be aggressive or not aggressive depending on CPs as per the rules. Please upload chart Cheers, Alfonso
Here is the chart Alfonso.
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  • #6,136
  • Sep 14, 2015 11:59am Sep 14, 2015 11:59am
Quoting dvarrin
{quote} Here is the chart Alfonso. {image}
It was mentioned during the webinar my friend, previous ascending trendline after several CPs (aggressive trendline) was broken. When a trendline is broken, a brand new imbalance is created as the rules dictate.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,137
  • Sep 14, 2015 1:14pm Sep 14, 2015 1:14pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} It was mentioned during the webinar my friend, previous ascending trendline after several CPs (aggressive trendline) was broken. When a trendline is broken, a brand new imbalance is created as the rules dictate. Cheers, Alfonso
Hi Alfonso,

I'm sorry but I don't understand. Should not even a CP pattern remove an opposing zone? Where are the CP patterns and which opposing zones are they removing?

Cheers,
Daniel
  • #6,138
  • Sep 14, 2015 1:59pm Sep 14, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting dvarrin
{quote} Hi Alfonso, I'm sorry but I don't understand. Should not even a CP pattern remove an opposing zone? Where are the CP patterns and which opposing zones are they removing? Cheers, Daniel
AFAIK we can draw trend lines using unvalidated zones and as we have way more than 3 consecutive CPs here, we can draw a more agressive one like the red. I sometimes even use trend lines like the blue one which connects last two CPs if there is no approximate way to connect last three in a row.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 137 KB
Trade what you see..
  • #6,139
  • Sep 15, 2015 12:27am Sep 15, 2015 12:27am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} AFAIK we can draw trend lines using unvalidated zones and as we have way more than 3 consecutive CPs here, we can draw a more agressive one like the red. I sometimes even use trend lines like the blue one which connects last two CPs if there is no approximate way to connect last three in a row. {image}
Hi Chawl,

Is there something about that in the first post?

Cheers,
Daniel
  • #6,140
  • Sep 15, 2015 12:58am Sep 15, 2015 12:58am
Quoting dvarrin
{quote} Hi Chawl, Is there something about that in the first post? Cheers, Daniel
I can't remember where I got this but I've watched all 30+ videos on Alfonso's channel, probably it is a naturally recurring theme that sticks to mind but doesn't have its own clause in the documents. Perhaps nobody has asked a question about trend lines like yours till now As always, Alfonso might clear this.
Trade what you see..
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