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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #53,001
  • Sep 12, 2015 2:45pm Sep 12, 2015 2:45pm
Quoting pannet1
{quote} brilliant rt15 ! IMHO, i don't think many would have the muscle or the balls for the -15 or -16 in the chart. OK. Let me talk about me. I was wondering how my play would be (with my old unchanged mindset). I am sure Alex would love this :-) {image} Master played in 1 Min chart. I play in 5 Min chart. So I assume this is a 5 Min chart. aa) earlier I decided to go short because of the bias or 4H trend. bb) -1 in on a breakout or below MA 12 cc) wait till end of the short term bear trend explanation: continuous Red candles, -1 in profit, momentum...

just a suggestion, how much analysis you do, it will miss the most imp factor "what was happening that time".... learn but remeber what you are learning is not full. You have no idea how master was seeing other pairs , how was he feeeling..


V
  • #53,002
  • Sep 12, 2015 2:53pm Sep 12, 2015 2:53pm
Just thought I'd reply to make this the 50,001 post!

So has anyone come to a conclusion yet? Is technical analysis a fallacy or not?
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #53,003
  • Sep 12, 2015 3:21pm Sep 12, 2015 3:21pm
i think this chart thing may be getting a bit over analysed now, this started as a question of if it was a good idea to go both long and short in a up trend and fti's chart, which is clear he has not/did not do there.

just go with what is happening, if you are wrong let that decision be swift so you can rectify it quickly for the sake of your account.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #53,004
  • Edited 1:27am Sep 13, 2015 1:07am | Edited 1:27am
Quoting phil13
i think this chart thing may be getting a bit over analysed now, this started as a question of if it was a good idea to go both long and short in a up trend and fti's chart, which is clear he has not/did not do there. just go with what is happening, if you are wrong let that decision be swift so you can rectify it quickly for the sake of your account. regards Phil.
have you seen thru them? the new comers have not understood aow. or they have not read thread. you give them a nice drawing, then they start adding extra objects into the picture.

i quote:

1. I think the first scout he entered at the end of yellow candle
it is already 50% retracement following Gann theory
after that he just entered after every first red candle following a yellow one
he didn't wait for confirmation

2. I think he is very aware of Support Resistance and fractal
but he can picture it in his mind
no need to draw them on the chart

3. Higher high or lower low as in fractal in M5 is easier to grasp as the current trend
you can trade both ways, up or down

but fti is only trade one direction because he said
"Bull makes money, Bear makes money
Both caught in the middle of the road"
now how to determine which direction ?

4. Fti used Elliot's wave

5. MM is important
his maximum lots are 20, and he sticks with it

unquote: these people have not read thread. they looking for that holy grail method.

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they only read what they want to read and see what htey want to see. evetually they come up with some weird looking horse that fails to work and says fti taught them this. so much on human nature.

what people really need to do, is to read the thread. the simpler it is, the harder to get people to believe and do.

cultivate self and mind. many things in life, is simple. it becomes simple when the mind embraces it. it becomes difficult and stubborn if the mind refuses it. it is just a simple switch in the mind to begin with. this switch, it is hard to reach because we made it that way.

for me, it is a challenge, every second of my life, because i may just succumb that second. is not easy, i acknowledge. reading and doing is different. knowing and internalizing is different.

good luck.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #53,005
  • Sep 13, 2015 1:07am Sep 13, 2015 1:07am
Quoting rt15
{image} Dear fti, would you mind make several more of this chart ? I believe this is the attack sequence would you give some sample of defense sequence ? and several other charts to study ? I am one of the dull students, chart is easier to see :-) I followed your 3 rules and saved 2 loss to no loss, even I had to wait for the next day rule 1. preservation of capital rule 2 preservation of capital rule 3 go back to rule 1 rt15
read thread.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #53,006
  • Sep 13, 2015 1:22am Sep 13, 2015 1:22am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi Jacque, that was my initial interpretation too, which led me to understand the mm workings of the blitzkrieg, when used in conjunction with a catalyst, which turns the wind in my favour, becomes very powerful. however, i did a mm study at the very early stages of reading this thread and came to a conclusion that the 1 2 1 1, is a safer mm skew meant to ride trends, as it follows the probability that a trend might continue as we continue to push up or down in a trend, at the different stages the market is at, also with the special properties...

utimlately i have the same idea as you. use foreign cap to play via a spiral mm
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #53,007
  • Sep 13, 2015 2:07am Sep 13, 2015 2:07am
Hi Jacque

Hope you are well my friend.

We were all their stage in the learning curve at some point, well I know I was, it is a really hard thing to do letting go and not wanting to ‘copy’ anymore because that means we have to really ‘think for ourselves’ and leave the comfort of the crowds and rules we have been taught follow.

As we know it is all there in the thread but one read is not enough to process the vast amount of information there is there, what always makes me amazed is people neglect the first post which actually tells us quite a lot, I also find they want to short cut the at least two plus years fti has stated this ‘course/way of learning’ will take, it was not until I resigned myself to learning longer term and giving up the way the mainstream teaches then I started slowly breaking the thread down into practicing the separate skills needed that it all started to work for me. i still re-read the thread now and find new things.

Of course as you say AOW is very important part to read and learn from, this is from the first chapter before you start to fight….

24. Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple
before the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few
calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and
few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by
attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #53,008
  • Sep 13, 2015 2:22am Sep 13, 2015 2:22am
Quoting phil13
Hi Jacque Hope you are well my friend. We were all their stage in the learning curve at some point, well I know I was, it is a really hard thing to do letting go and not wanting to copy anymore because that means we have to really think for ourselves and leave the comfort of the crowds and rules we have been taught follow. As we know it is all there in the thread but one read is not enough to process the vast amount of information there is there, what always makes me amazed is people neglect the first post which actually tells us quite...
hi Phil, i see your message. tks. i lost my patience.

cheers
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #53,009
  • Sep 13, 2015 4:13am Sep 13, 2015 4:13am
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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #53,010
  • Sep 13, 2015 5:01am Sep 13, 2015 5:01am
Quoting Calculus
Just thought I'd reply to make this the 50,001 post! So has anyone come to a conclusion yet? Is technical analysis a fallacy or not?
Hahahaha.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #53,011
  • Sep 13, 2015 5:16am Sep 13, 2015 5:16am
Quoting Calculus
Just thought I'd reply to make this the 50,001 post! So has anyone come to a conclusion yet? Is technical analysis a fallacy or not?
not so funny,
Bandar kya jane adrak ka swad. Monkey doesn't know the taste of ginger.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #53,012
  • Sep 13, 2015 5:20am Sep 13, 2015 5:20am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} utimlately i have the same idea as you. use foreign cap to play via a spiral mm
yep, and though im hesitant to bring up this topic about leverage, because for those not skilled in reading the markets, it can kill them very fast, the proper way to use leverage is to employ foreign caps to do leveraged trades with enough average position not inside the stop hunting zone, or rather, sometimes you can get in with the stophunt itself, which is my preference, and add size with the help of the big boys, with foreign caps to cover potential losses from those trades, in case my read is totally wrong, in which no damage to the book is done.
  • #53,013
  • Sep 13, 2015 5:30am Sep 13, 2015 5:30am
Quoting Calculus
Just thought I'd reply to make this the 50,001 post! So has anyone come to a conclusion yet? Is technical analysis a fallacy or not?


Yes course .....oh ...and no



Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #53,014
  • Sep 13, 2015 6:34am Sep 13, 2015 6:34am
quote from fti post....

My reason for making this thread was to help traders (for free), come back, with their feets back to the ground. for some of you, you may understand what I mean.

Nevertheless let me explain.
If you had watched "crouching tiger and what? was it (hidden) dragon" . You may remember the lead actor and actress standing on the tip of bamboo leaves, and holding each other in a most romantic scene. Chinese martial arts is good for health and trains lots of very good lessons about the body and mind. BUT make no mistake that what you saw is not humanly possible. ( well, not for me, the having the woman in arms part maybe, but not with both of us standing on the tip of bamboo leaves) Thats where the problem lays. There are many super analysts today teaching their reserches of this kind of fantasy/fallacy, in the name of technical analysis. Taking the trading community to feats not humanly possible. Worst there are scammers cashing in to this, and begining to mislead the perceptions of most wanting traders.

The tree branches out, that is the nature of growth. But when a branch tries to reach out to topple the tree, it should be trimmed, lest the action be allowed to continue, distroying the main.




When we move into the Art of war and MM , always remember this, I say again, do not forget.
It can be used as the sword that leads you into great victories and grandure.
But forget the, foundation and the mindset, be careless, and it will be that which will take your head off.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post1744632


regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #53,015
  • Sep 13, 2015 8:37am Sep 13, 2015 8:37am
There's some kinda arguement and i am going bring it on thread.

Although my energies are low end. I think the peeps are bloody crazy.
And i think people who present documentaries should research their subject before trying talk, mostly crock.

Inserted Video


regards
  • #53,016
  • Edited 8:54am Sep 13, 2015 8:38am | Edited 8:54am
A little knowlwdge a dangerous thing.
Anyway they not knows what they not knows.

i still cannot understand why some peoples brains are so simpleton. How can it be the fault of the black model. The model only quantifys the component risks. Its the delta neutral strategy that took LTC out. What has it got to do with the model? And i cannot even believe, what kinda simple minded managers of risk can believe in making $ without undertaking risk? No risk game is just trying steal the spread pennies. Thats a trading strategy? I think there lots mad people in this world living with lots assumtions. make an ass u me. What kinda risk manager would delta hedge, when the curve of other greeks can kill you in 1 sd moves? bloody mad isn;t it?
They even think a super fast repeater machine has inteligence. Hahaha mad people. machanical failure.

The stupid machine, it only has as much intelligence as its programmer. No question about its speed of repeatative multitasking. If that is intelligence , then a factory assembly line worker should manage the factorys? Seems the managers are getting more and more rigidly stupid.

regards

PS:The people confuses their abilities from their tools. What idiots.

sorry about the interupt. just need get this rubbish off my chest.

"As you were" , my friends.
  • #53,017
  • Edited 9:57am Sep 13, 2015 9:04am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting fti
A little knowlwdge a dangerous thing. Anyway they not knows what they not knows. i still cannot understand why some peoples brains are so simpleton. How can it be the fault of the black model. The model only quantifys the component risks. Its the delta neutral strategy that took LTC out. What has it got to do with the model? And i cannot even believe, what kinda simple minded managers of risk can believe in making $ without undertaking risk? No risk game is just trying steal the spread pennies. Thats a trading strategy? I think there lots mad people...
Idiots abusing their tools , just makes it work in the wrong way.
regards
  • #53,018
  • Sep 13, 2015 9:53am Sep 13, 2015 9:53am
Soory my friends, i need to disengage for alittle.
Had a close call last week.
Luckly my GTN couple asprins and the trusty oxy compressor pulled me thru.
please excuse for my incapacity.

regards

masterful work.
Inserted Video
  • #53,019
  • Sep 13, 2015 10:16am Sep 13, 2015 10:16am
Quoting fti
Soory my friends, i need to disengage for alittle. Had a close call last week. Luckly my GTN couple asprins and the trusty oxy compressor pulled me thru. please excuse for my incapacity. regards masterful work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLSOWrZy6xs
Sorry if we upset you...please do not get upset by chatter and have nice rest.....cool music .....thank you..... saying prayer for us all.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #53,020
  • Sep 13, 2015 10:21am Sep 13, 2015 10:21am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Sorry if we upset you...please do not get upset by chatter and have nice rest.....cool music .....thank you..... saying prayer for us all. Alex
nobody's fault.
I was not upset.
Just my body and me not in good relationship.
carry on your chats.
I'll take look about when able.

God Bless.
regards.
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