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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #52,981
  • Edited 3:59am Sep 11, 2015 3:49am | Edited 3:59am
Quoting pannet1
{quote} demo market does not have wide spread, emotions, broker does not add spread markup, i never cared for my babies this much and had a casual approach. live market i cared the babies so much i produced more of them (many unnecessary). in order for the mindset to change, i need to have an acceptance that i am doing it wrong. that's why. seems you are annoyed of seeing me here again and again. sorry
you missed the leverage i used. 10x. so is 10x your emotions and scorpians in live.

i am not annoyed. i am pointing out key areas for your perusal. the rest is up to you. mindset is the toughest, many dont get pass this stage. they kept asking how to use the knife or where is the knife. mindset is the requirement to use the knife then aow to compliment it. is a waste of time to answer. shortest answer ask them read thread.

u get mindset, everything else falls in place. but your knife may not be as sharp, then spiral mm comes into play, is a very sharp knife.

you dare give a kitchen knife to a baby who has no mindset?
how about to an adult who has normal mindset?
how about to a murder who has a killing mindset?

the sharper the knife, the deeper the cut.

then u need strategy, the aow. strategy teaches you how to use the sharp knife efficient and conquer the hill.

think about it.

you say you read thread but u dont know what you doing is right or wrong. so obviously u have not understand. better u keep small no leverage lest ur head gets taken off. think carefully.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,982
  • Sep 11, 2015 4:43am Sep 11, 2015 4:43am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} you missed the leverage i used. 10x. so is 10x your emotions and scorpians in live. i am not annoyed. i am pointing out key areas for your perusal. the rest is up to you. mindset is the toughest, many dont get pass this stage. they kept asking how to use the knife or where is the knife. mindset is the requirement to use the knife then aow to compliment it. is a waste of time to answer. shortest answer ask them read thread. u get mindset, everything else falls in place. but your knife may not be as sharp, then spiral mm comes into play, is...
thanks Jacque,

will develop the right mindset.

same master, different students.
some bright students. some dull students.
some succeed. some fail.

for me...victory is inevitable.
  • #52,983
  • Sep 11, 2015 5:12am Sep 11, 2015 5:12am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} ...... you say you read thread but u dont know what you doing is right or wrong... so obviously u have not understand.....

.... has taken me ages to really feel the thread (and still reading it loads) and what it is trying to tell us..... still hard to ignore old demons.....getting better tho'..........slow journey for me......but I did not just attack it as that would have been too messy for me .... not my style.... had to have some understanding of messages...... and now building on that..... with some help (thank you)..........this is a lifelong journey..........each time I go to thread there is something new to take from it......

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,984
  • Sep 11, 2015 6:43am Sep 11, 2015 6:43am
Quoting pannet1
dear alexandria/phil13, i am posting my yesterday EU dance for your kind opinion. The volatility was little low so I could not rescue and slept with a +2 long positions on loss. EU always tends to go near previous (or day before) day's close and also support wall was building up. so I was bullish for the next day. When I woke up today, I was in profit and added another +1 long position and closed everything positive. blue lines are buys red lines are sells the trade lines are little different because i use closeby please advise. {image}
Hi pannet1,

might i point out to u, perhaps u need to slow down, and keep in mind the big picture, which is the phase the market is in, the initial phase to the left is the marking up phase, the market is consistently making higher hips and lops and should be traded from the long side for optimal gains, though this is my opinion only which is just for consideration.

fti once mentioned the diamond, which i am interpreting as that is the probability of the trend is small, then becomes bigger and then tapers off to the tip as the market's trend slows off, if you plot the probability of profit when you buy a long trend at the various points of the trend, you will see a half of a diamond shape, which shapes my money management to be 1 2 1 1 ... and so on or the variations to keep into account the diamond shape for trend rides.

notice the picture you posted on how fti attacks the trend, do you see the form of a diamond there?

what does this mean in this case? the key is the diamond shape's widest area, the 1 2 1 1, if the market is between 1 and 2, the initial mark up, it is acceptable to cut and flip and attack assuming ur initial exposure is still small and a scout of 1 is deployed only, you can go on an attack skew without much exposure to book while being in tune with the trend and not have exposure being counter trend.

for me if i see a market like this, i would be scout 1 long, attack level 1 on lop after the initial marking up with 2x and attack 2 on lop on the 2nd lop subsequently, and let the market ride, and when the markets slow off im looking to take profits, notice the volatility slow off and the rounding top after the high volatility moves the market rounded off and the sticks volatility slowed off which indicates the market might be resting, and hence taking 2 off or 4 off would be good, leaving a scout to ride or if you would like to just close shop you could take it all off.

my take is that you not comfortable with cutting and flipping yet? because not every trade needs to be rescued, for some scenarios, it might be more strategic and profitable to cut and flip the scout, while the exposure is still very small, and the damage to your book is very limited and recovery can be done very easily and quickly, it all depends on which stage of the market are we on, aka the big picture.

one way to assess this is to look for the previous closest accumulation or distribution formation and begin analysis from there and see are we with the trend or not and if our position is close enough the beginning of the accumulation/distribution to do a flip, given by the diamond idea, to recover and possibly profit by attacking with the trend.

just my opinion, hopes it helps with your trading journey.
  • #52,985
  • Sep 11, 2015 7:52am Sep 11, 2015 7:52am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi pannet1, might i point out to u, perhaps u need to slow down, and keep in mind the big picture, which is the phase the market is in, the initial phase to the left is the marking up phase, the market is consistently making higher hips and lops and should be traded from the long side for optimal gains, though this is my opinion only which is just for consideration. fti once mentioned the diamond, which i am interpreting as that is the probability of the trend is small, then becomes bigger and then tapers off to the tip as the market's trend...

hi fren, the diamond is really just the shape of the contracting and expanding mm. nothing more. every diamond have 2 sides, convex and concave. you go see how a raw diamond is cut then compare to the shape of a spiral mm. you may just see it. is no secret.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,986
  • Edited 8:30am Sep 11, 2015 8:09am | Edited 8:30am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hi fren, the diamond is really just the shape of the contracting and expanding mm. nothing more. every diamond have 2 sides, convex and concave. you go see how a raw diamond is cut then compare to the shape of a spiral mm. you may just see it. is no secret.
hi Jacque,

that was my initial interpretation too, which led me to understand the mm workings of the blitzkrieg, when used in conjunction with a catalyst, which turns the wind in my favour, becomes very powerful.

however, i did a mm study at the very early stages of reading this thread and came to a conclusion that the 1 2 1 1, is a safer mm skew meant to ride trends, as it follows the probability that a trend might continue as we continue to push up or down in a trend, at the different stages the market is at, also with the special properties of the first push, in which the people who were wrong liquidate, that helps to lower the exposure significantly by being in profits relatively quickly, hence it is safest to load up near the start of the trend, when enough foreign cap from the scout is accumulated, when the probability is looking best, the rest is all managing foreign caps and riding the markets, which has the shape of a diamond when plotted out. that was why i thought the diamond might be interpreted this way too, though i could have interpreted wrongly, but hey something nice came out of it right?
  • #52,987
  • Sep 11, 2015 8:35am Sep 11, 2015 8:35am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi Jacque, that was my initial interpretation too, which led me to understand the mm workings of the blitzkrieg, when used in conjunction with a catalyst, which turns the wind in my favour, becomes very powerful. however, i did a mm study at the very early stages of reading this thread and came to a conclusion that the 1 2 1 1, is a safer mm skew meant to ride trends, as it follows the probability that a trend might continue as we continue to push up or down in a trend, at the different stages the market is at, also with the special properties...
Hi... may I ask

How do you think the selling in blue colour in FTI's example relates to diamond?

Regards

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,988
  • Edited 11:55pm Sep 11, 2015 8:50am | Edited 11:55pm
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hi... may I ask How do you think the selling in blue colour in FTI's example relates to diamond? Regards Alex
Hi, Alex, notice that the attack is scout first, then level 1 and so on, until it breaks the lop and create a new lop. With each attack, the size of the attack becomes bigger until it hits the lop, and breaks it and the profit taking takes place, this would be that as we approach the lop, the probability of it breaking the low is much higher, hence asserting a down trend, when it breaks the low, the chances of retracement or reversal increases, that is why the probability of the trend continuation has a good chance of dropping lower, and hence the profit taking. This is for 1 leg only, however if you want to trade more legs in the direction of the trend, the one which pannet1 has shown, where there are multiple waves, fading the lops of the retraces is better, but it means more exposure to.possible reversal, therefore the best place to load size is the first retrace as most people have not hopped on board and you have foreign caps to buffer for larger size and you can see where the big players are defending too. So the application depends on how big a picture you are interested in trading, either one leg only or possible multiple legs

sorry, i think i left out something there, the blue part, notice that the market was very near the initial wave's start of the impulse down trend? i would be thinking that, if it can break the resistance level then it would increase the probability that the trend has changed up, otherwise this might be a correction candidate, it really depends on if the big plays who caused the initial big wave down are still present and want to defend that level, if yes, switch position because you are against the trend, if it breaks up, we would expect the big guys are already gone, and the small guys who are still there, and sitting ducks short stoplosses are there to, which if pushed up, is instead a new trend up and might extend quite strongly. hence everything depends on if that particular level is defended because that area is where the big guys have caused a down trend, it not being defended would indicate it is ready to move. from then on, think about who would get in and if the big players are perhaps at the bottom causing the move up even. it is the reaction to the level which tells us if the big boys are still bearish or not, and hence the probability. the probability always keeps changing with our read of the market, hence the mm must change and adapt with our read of the market.

the reason why setups which fail is the best kind of setups is because it is fresh and your at the start, and hence the probability of success is much higher compared to getting in later. the post which phil wrote earlier about the bandwagon, that is the exact same kind of thinking here. to the nimble and the quick, market change is huge opportunities, all that determines your success is really your skill level at reading the markets and the mm you employ.

a rule of thumb which can be employed here is, the stronger the legs are, the more accumulation/distribution the market needs to do to get the next leg, the more tricks they need to pull to fill others before they can let price go down. the main important price level, which is where fti did a -16 was where the market started going down and made a new low, that is where the professionals can be seen to defend, and if even they are not defending their position, then something is not right.

something that is interesting though, which facilitates the analysis too, who exactly are we buying back our shorts from when the market started trading to new lows? it would be people who are slower in execution, breakout traders, hedgers, or market makers making price, or even people speculating fundamentals and also people speculating larger timeframes, and mainly the stop orders down there for market makers to liquidate and square down exposure. the flip side is, above the price action on top of the bar of -2 which was on top of the -16 bar, we can expect other people's stops to be there, what would happen if it touches off there? the weak holders and stops being executed would create a massive price cascade to push up won't it? and in addition to that, break out traders coming in to push price up further. hence, if a price level being defended or not is our market read, and if that level is breached or not alters our probability of us being successful or not by alot, and if it does break up, it is a fresh and new trend, which becomes a good place to load up on attacks isn't it? if it does break up, and the big guys don't defend it, the trend being in a fresh new start near the beginning would offer the most and best r&r setups.
  • #52,989
  • Sep 11, 2015 12:48pm Sep 11, 2015 12:48pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1441958021


Dear fti,
would you mind make several more of this chart ?
I believe this is the attack sequence

would you give some sample of defense sequence ?

and several other charts to study ?

I am one of the dull students, chart is easier to see :-)

I followed your 3 rules and saved 2 loss to no loss, even I had to wait for the next day
rule 1. preservation of capital
rule 2 preservation of capital
rule 3 go back to rule 1

rt15
  • #52,990
  • Sep 11, 2015 12:52pm Sep 11, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting rt15
{image} Dear fti, would you mind make several more of this chart ? I believe this is the attack sequence would you give some sample of defense sequence ? and several other charts to study ? I am one of the dull students, chart is easier to see :-) I followed your 3 rules and saved 2 loss to no loss, even I had to wait for the next day rule 1. preservation of capital rule 2 preservation of capital rule 3 go back to rule 1 rt15
your question make me learn and more learn. thanks
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #52,991
  • Sep 11, 2015 7:13pm Sep 11, 2015 7:13pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1202257457

Let's try to analyze leigh's dance step
Leigh doesn't use trendline, northpro added the trendline to the chart
but trendline is useless

Scout entry @ 157.62
Leigh uses fractal
If she use trendline, she would have entered at 3.00 when the upper line was broken
but she waited until fractal showed higher low (2.55, 3.30) then enter the scout

Buy 1 lot @ 157.82
when the ticks made a higher high from 3.15

Unfortunately the chart went the other way
but it made another higher low @4.40 so uptrend holds and it was only a countertrend correction
Northpro added that it also made bullish engulfment
so she entered another 2 lots @ 157.80

then as she said so at higher high fractal she thought PA was too deep
and imminent correction so she took out 3 lots and left 1 scout

after correction at 6.00 and 6.40 the fractals made double bottom
and compared to 4.40 the fractal made higher low so still uptrend
so she entered after confirmation 2 lots @ 158.24

another correction bummer !
but she calculated her new basis now at 158.08 or at the lowest of double bottom
luckily it doesn't go all the way to 158.08 and already bounced back @158.20
she would have taken all out probably if it reached 158.08
because of the 3 rules of perservation of capitals

rt15
  • #52,992
  • Sep 11, 2015 7:24pm Sep 11, 2015 7:24pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1365537754



ref : p 67 post 1325
leigh 2nd chart
green arrow
then she entered again when the ticks broke the high fractal @7.35

finally she she sold all when the dance changed from higher high (9.30, 10)to lower high (10,11)

rt15
  • #52,993
  • Sep 11, 2015 8:57pm Sep 11, 2015 8:57pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1441958021

Now fti dance, the pro dance
The D trend must be down
Fti used Elliot's wave
After A wave, then B and a long candle
entered scout at the end of long candle (wow)
after C it broke down, entered another lot
then D, flat, 3 doji, up, make an E
broke down fast and furious, entered 2 more lots
the 2nd candle is red as well, entered when it past the lowest low of point D
at the next red candle, took out 8 at the resistance line for possible bounce
another red candle, took out 5 more
another red candle, took out 3 and 2
too fast and too deep
retracement is imminent
still leave 2 lots
first yellow candle, took out 1 lot and leave the scout

first red candle add 1 more sell but it went up
first red candle add 2 more sell, it went sideways
took all out when hit the support line

then it went up, after a doji
entered a scout again on the first red
another doji followed by another red signals continuation, entered another sell
after a retracement then a doji, entered another sell
but it went up
no cut lost
then it broke down fast, entered 2 lots sell
after a retracement, a doji and a other red candle, entered the main army with 15 lots
the other positions were in positive territory already
the next red candle, took out 8 and also at support line and possible bounce
after a retracement that didn't reach the entry point of 15 lots
it broke down again
took out 5 at another support line for possible bounce
luckily it still went down
took 3 out
leaving 4 in the battle (for overnight ? swing trading)


MM is important
his maximum lots are 20, and he sticks with it
Only sell position in down D trend
in the middle chart, very aggresive on every first red candle after yellow candle he entered ( wow) (since M5 trend confirmed D trend by braking down previously)
very aggresive and active on attacking every red candle he adds troops or withdraws troops
never ever cut lost :-) remember the 3 golden rule

Please provide the next chart to analyse fti :-)
Rescue sequence chart ?

rt15
  • #52,994
  • Edited 11:26pm Sep 11, 2015 11:14pm | Edited 11:26pm
[quote=rt15;8484931]{image} Now fti dance, the pro dance The D trend must be down Fti used Elliot's wave After A wave, then B and a long candle entered scout at the end of long candle (wow) after C it broke down, entered another lot then D, flat, 3 doji, up, make an E broke down fast and furious, entered 2 more lots the 2nd candle is red


Hi rt15

that would make sense to me now if the 4 was to remove all the remaining trades and also answers why the 3 colors = 3 trades.

thank you.

regards

Phil.

Attached Image
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,995
  • Edited Sep 12, 2015 12:12am Sep 11, 2015 11:54pm | Edited Sep 12, 2015 12:12am
[quote=phil13;8484962]
Quoting rt15
{image} Now fti dance, the pro dance The D trend must be down Fti used Elliot's wave After A wave, then B and a long candle entered scout at the end of long candle (wow) after C it broke down, entered another lot then D, flat, 3 doji, up, make an E broke down fast and furious, entered 2 more lots the 2nd candle is red Hi rt15 that would make sense to me now if the 4 was to remove all the remaining trades and also answers why the 3 colors = 3 trades. thank you. regards Phil. {image}

This is how I have always read it. But no matter. Lots of different situations in markets. Not just things are down or up......is it retrace or impulse. Entered 1st at end of long candle for feel so no matter long and look at candle count of down and up move and at 50% retrace.
Not sure if he used candles or just strong pushes in his direction for entries. He did say hard to show rightly in hindsight and not live.


Regards


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,996
  • Sep 12, 2015 7:46am Sep 12, 2015 7:46am
[quote=alexandria;8484974]
Quoting phil13
{quote} This is how I have always read it. But no matter. Lots of different situations in markets. Not just things are down or up......is it retrace or impulse. Entered 1st at end of long candle for feel so no matter long and look at candle count of down and up move and at 50% retrace. Not sure if he used candles or just strong pushes in his direction for entries. He did say hard to show rightly in hindsight and not live. Regards Alex

hi Alex

sorry my friend i did not realise that was what you meant, I said i may be wrong as i do not/cannot always read things how they are meant being dyslexic.

i knew that 4 was not a long in a clear down move though.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,997
  • Sep 12, 2015 9:01am Sep 12, 2015 9:01am
[quote=phil13;8485197]
Quoting alexandria
{quote} hi Alex sorry my friend i did not realise that was what you meant, I said i may be wrong as i do not/cannot always read things how they are meant being dyslexic. i knew that 4 was not a long in a clear down move though. regards Phil.

Sorry my fault for not being clearer...... do not worry about dyslexia (well I know you will..... but really do not... we all have issues/skills/talents... how we were made... sometimes a challenge gives us greater talent elsewhere... well that is what I find/believe) as 4 or -4 was unclear to me too now after you mentioned it... anyways it does not matter really. FTI has not given a template just an example and we will all see things differently as you have said many times........ fun to go over that chart again.......

Have fun

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,998
  • Sep 12, 2015 9:46am Sep 12, 2015 9:46am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi pannet1, might i point out to u, perhaps u need to slow down, and keep in mind the big picture, which is the phase the market is in, the initial phase to the left is the marking up phase, the market is consistently making higher hips and lops and should be traded from the long side for optimal gains, though this is my opinion only which is just for consideration. fti once mentioned the diamond, which i am interpreting as that is the probability of the trend is small, then becomes bigger and then tapers off to the tip as the market's trend...
Thanks CookieMonsta, Really appreciate your help.
  • #52,999
  • Sep 12, 2015 10:32am Sep 12, 2015 10:32am
Attached Image



I think the first scout he entered at the end of yellow candle
it is already 50% retracement following Gann theory
after that he just entered after every first red candle following a yellow one
he didn't wait for confirmation
(Notice that he didn't enter on the very first red candle after the very first yellow candle on the top left corner of the chart
he let it go. Wait and see for market/enemy movement/manouver)

only when he risk his main army he waited for confirmation
Before he entered his main army (-16 and -15)
notice that the fractal (not shown on the chart)
make lower high twice so confirm the trend was down
and the ticks pass the lowest point of previous one (break the support line)

and he withdrew half of them as fast as he entered them as a buffer in case it goes the other way
on the next red candle

Whenever it hit support line, he withdraws some troops
no wait or hesistancy

I think he is very aware of Support Resistance and fractal
but he can picture it in his mind
no need to draw them on the chart

he took the first opportunity
when it went sideways in the middle of the chart
he took all out 4 lots when it hit support line the first time
he didn't wait and see if it might go lower (like I usually do
Remember the story of the man on the roof in flood
He waited 3 times for the rescue and drowned
Fti jumped on the first opportunity of rescue

The target of rescue mode is to avoid loss (don't change the target to make money on rescue mode)
(don't let greed take over and change your plan, you might drown in the middle of the river like the turtle and scorpion)
The target of attack mode is to make money
scout to feel the market
when you are in sync with the market, attack
when you are out of sync with the market, rescue
nobody can be right all the time in predicting market movement as it can't be predicted (random walk theory)

strong push in line with D trend or downtrend as the trend of the moment
there was a strong upward push in the middle of the chart (counter trend)
he simply ignored them

but the very first candle in the direction of the trend even a doji
he dared to enter without waiting for confirmation

again how do you determine trend in D ?
downtrend overall but what if D in counter trend mode ?
How do you know it is counter trend but only after it happens ?
for example
for one month D shows strong downtrend, but the last 3 days strong uptrend
what is the trend now ? up or down ?
or D trend is too far from M5, irrelevant.
so follow H1 trend instead for M5 ?

Higher high or lower low as in fractal in M5 is easier to grasp as the current trend
you can trade both ways, up or down

but fti is only trade one direction because he said
"Bull makes money, Bear makes money
Both caught in the middle of the road"
now how to determine which direction ?

or take a best guess from D and H1
and see if M5 confirm your guessed trend
and just do one direction trading
even if you wrong, just do the rescue sequence
with the right MM and AOW strategy, you could survive it
then you reconsider your trend again from the new development in D and H1
confirm your trend with M5 again as the trend of the moment

That's the chart I'm looking at now. D, H1 and M5. Trading at M5
SR and fractal to help me dance until I can picture it in my mind
I need a handrail to help me learn to walk

Open for discussion - fti chart observation

rt15
  • #53,000
  • Sep 12, 2015 12:09pm Sep 12, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting rt15
{image} I think the first scout he entered at the end of yellow candle it is already 50% retracement following Gann theory after that he just entered after every first red candle following a yellow one he didn't wait for confirmation (Notice that he didn't enter on the very first red candle after the very first yellow candle on the top left corner of the chart he let it go. Wait and see for market/enemy movement/manouver) only when he risk his main army he waited for confirmation Before he entered his main army (-16 and -15) notice that the fractal...
brilliant rt15 !

IMHO, i don't think many would have the muscle or the balls for the -15 or -16 in the chart. OK. Let me talk about me. I was wondering how my play would be (with my old unchanged mindset). I am sure Alex would love this :-)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fti master.jpg Size: 117 KB


Master played in 1 Min chart. I play in 5 Min chart. So I assume this is a 5 Min chart.

aa) earlier I decided to go short because of the bias or 4H trend.
bb) -1 in on a breakout or below MA 12
cc) wait till end of the short term bear trend
explanation: continuous Red candles, -1 in profit, momentum reduction, followed by bullish candle that closes above the last bearish candle.
dd) reload at breakout of the last bullish candle, -2 in
ee) +1 in on the big bullish bar
urge to lock the profit (or) reduce loss of -2 if market moves above the original entry and if in flip mode.
ff) another +1 in to cover the points lost on -2
ee) banked first -1 and first 1 with a closeby
ff) flip or not flip decision time
explanation: with only -2 and +1 left now, if price move more above +1 then add another +2 or +3
ee) trend continuation and Breakeven (BE)
price only have to travel down from -2 only half the distance (of +1) for BE.
ff) attack once you are past breakeven
could be -1 in if am conservative and -2 if confident of the trend (momentum is there).

it is crystal clear what am doing wrong.
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