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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #52,941
  • Sep 8, 2015 2:39am Sep 8, 2015 2:39am
Quoting fti
{quote} Refresher. 3 cardinal rules for trading. rule 1. Preservation of capital. rule 2. Preservation of CAPITAL. rule 3. DO NOT forget rule 1 regards
absolutely
and for me now, I only open position on "specified level price". price not on that specified level so its watching day, price on that specified level than prepare for attack.
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #52,942
  • Edited 3:30am Sep 8, 2015 2:49am | Edited 3:30am
Quoting pannet1
dear alexandria/phil13, i am posting my yesterday EU dance for your kind opinion. The volatility was little low so I could not rescue and slept with a +2 long positions on loss. EU always tends to go near previous (or day before) day's close and also support wall was building up. so I was bullish for the next day. When I woke up today, I was in profit and added another +1 long position and closed everything positive. blue lines are buys red lines are sells the trade lines are little different because i use closeby please advise. {image}
I can only give my opinion... I am still learner very much so... I am no-one really to give advice... if you make money then good... if you can keep making it great.

Wow a lot going on... I would be lost. How do you think it looks overall? What made money and what was hard work? Looks like you trade against trend and everywhere... I do not do this generally as would mess up my mind.... or try not to.... you must be super hero. If rescuing against trend (not good place to be) would need to be like lightening in/out fast strong before trend turns against you maybe. Also I find sometimes if you spend ages trying to fight trend to rescue you miss nice trend moves with more pips and less nerves has nicer feel. Looks to me like you hitting short against trend and not going long with it when it comes.

You have bias built in and for next day..... I may be bull or bear at one time but I learned bias is always bad for book and my mind. I always look after my babies... never leave em.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,943
  • Sep 8, 2015 3:44am Sep 8, 2015 3:44am
Quoting pannet1
dear alexandria/phil13, i am posting my yesterday EU dance for your kind opinion. The volatility was little low so I could not rescue and slept with a +2 long positions on loss. EU always tends to go near previous (or day before) day's close and also support wall was building up. so I was bullish for the next day. When I woke up today, I was in profit and added another +1 long position and closed everything positive. blue lines are buys red lines are sells the trade lines are little different because i use closeby please advise. {image}

Hi pannet1

I am not trying to tell you how to trade here, everyone does it differently according to their capital, emotions and experience, there is no right or wrong way, sometimes we can improve our entries/exits and so long as you are getting profit that is all that matters, you should be trading your account and doing the best you can to make it only go one way but it would appear that you do not understand how the market/price often moves in an orderly fashion and that is why you may be trading both ways at the same time here, maybe I am wrong but this is how it looks to me....

Here is your chart with some explanation of what I am trying to say as it is often better for me to show in pictures than try to explain in words.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 61 KB


I personally have strategies to try to take advantage of these moves, if the market is or gets messy then I am out. I think what most seem to miss is not all the price moves are tradable, if you do not understand what price is doing then do not trade it until it starts to come into your understanding of an orderly price move, this alone will lower the risk to your account.

Of course at first we have trade all these moves to understand what works for us (in demo or very small lots preferable) but as you progress you should try to be more and more selective about when and what you trade, if you enter a trade and things do not go the way you planned (an example for me would be entering during the ‘rest’ and that ‘rest’ ends up making a new low) then either cut it or recover the sooner you can recognise a bad entry the better it is for your account.


QUOTE… ‘EU always tends to go near previous (or day before) day's close’
Are you really sure about this?? To me this is dangerous way of thinking, read the free corn and trapper story.

please remember this is all just my personal view of something you asked me to comment on and what works for me may not work for you.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,944
  • Sep 8, 2015 4:26am Sep 8, 2015 4:26am
Quoting phil13
{quote}....you may be trading both ways at the same time here.......
Hi friend. Hope you are well.

I am with you on this... I would trade same way as you describe here......Peeps always want to trade against trend/push seems to me (me too sometimes) ... must be human condition (greed/fear/hope).....there would need to be super strong grounds for me to do this.........maybe strong distribution (then with caution)....... or in strong rescue at overbought zone.....or very very strong feel reaction... but generally never. If I do not like or understand I sit on hands. sometimes naughty brain kicks in but I ignore it now... taken me while to learn some hard lessons though.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,945
  • Sep 8, 2015 4:34am Sep 8, 2015 4:34am
Hi alex, Thanks.
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I can only give my opinion... I am still learner very much so... I am no-one really to give advice... if you make money then good... if you can keep making it great. Wow a lot going on... I would be lost. How do you think it looks overall? What made money and what was hard work? Looks like you trade against trend and everywhere...
This is the bad habit i need to unlearn.
see am in +1 then i see a little lag in momentum, i tend to lock the profit quickly with a -1.
Then again if price moves above this -1, am in with another +2.
Now if price moves again below both the +2 and -1, am in with another -1.
So more deeper the retrace the more -1 and -2 only to realize sooner or later price had moved above all thereby leaving me with several -Sells.
Quoting alexandria
{quote}I do not do this generally as would mess up my mind.... or try not to.... you must be super hero. If rescuing against trend (not good place to be) would need to be like lightening in/out fast strong before trend turns against you maybe. Also I find sometimes if you spend ages trying to fight trend to rescue you miss nice trend moves with more pips and less nerves has nicer feel. Looks to me like you hitting short against trend and not going long with it when it comes. You have bias built in and for next day..... I may be bull or bear at one...
I tried to rescue till i had the last energy and i was ready for another rescue if the price went south.

Thank you so much once again for your insights.
  • #52,946
  • Edited 5:17am Sep 8, 2015 4:50am | Edited 5:17am
Quoting pannet1
Hi alex, Thanks. {quote} This is the bad habit i need to unlearn. see am in +1 then i see a little lag in momentum, i tend to lock the profit quickly with a -1. Then again if price moves above this -1, am in with another +2. Now if price moves again below both the +2 and -1, am in with another -1. So more deeper the retrace the more -1 and -2 only to realize sooner or later price had moved above all thereby leaving me with several -Sells. {quote} I tried to rescue till i had the last energy and i was ready for another rescue if the price went south....
If I help any one then I am glad but I am really very very novice. Have you studied FTI earliest example in this thread as it should help you.... not a template but will help you see what he did (not like yo yo)... I think it helps. Phil has also explained what he would do and I would do exactly the same. Look where he tells you where he would get in.... have a good look at it again and work out a new way you could have done it then move on..... drop what is bad and keep what works for you. Why try to fight a charging bull/train/bus.. you would get on board in right direction or at least get out of way.

Yeh looks like you must be exhausted to me. I have done it too but not quite so erratic as I was never so brave as you. I once did go long/short/long/short and got dizzy so not like that now. If you have nice push then get in on the weaker pull in the push direction (but be ready if it goes wrong) and then build on that if it works out..... takes out prior high or weakens off then be ready to bring em back in nice order... sounds like you back and forth like yo yo (greed/fear/hope?) on many candles (remember many tricks being played in markets... it is a war). As you trade think also where your average is.......

When it flows need to let it flow not panic like rabbit in headlights. Thanks for post as I always learn something from these. We need to be calm to trade... not I am going short in a trendy upwave with my fingers crossed behind my back in hope or worse coz I know it will do what I want eventually (egor). All part of learning anyways..... thanks again for chart.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,947
  • Sep 8, 2015 5:25am Sep 8, 2015 5:25am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hi friend. Hope you are well. I am with you on this... I would trade same way as you describe here......Peeps always want to trade against trend/push seems to me (me too sometimes) ... must be human condition (greed/fear/hope).....there would need to be super strong grounds for me to do this.........maybe strong distribution (then with caution)....... or in strong rescue at overbought zone.....or very very strong feel reaction... but generally never. If I do not like or understand I sit on hands. sometimes naughty brain kicks in but...

Hi Alex

i am good thanks, hope you are well too.

i think looking back at how i used to trade it is fear that the move is over that makes people counter trade the pump/impulse or they need confirmation so they jump on to late . definately there is a big misunderstanding of how the market/price moves due to the mainstream teachings i guess and people like clever complicated answers when price only moves up or down.

of course that was just one market condition above, there are others and they are traded differently, it all takes time to learn/experience as things in the market are the same but different all the time, this is why no one can say enter here exit there, we need to develope our 'feel' for all these differences that are the same..

then just manage our decisions careful taking note of everything step by step.

you appear to be doing well in your trading now from what i see you post my friend .

not trading this week so not around to much, supposed to be doing another list at the moment...

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,948
  • Sep 8, 2015 5:59am Sep 8, 2015 5:59am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alex i am good thanks, hope you are well too. i think looking back at how i used to trade it is fear that the move is over that makes people counter trade the pump/impulse or they need confirmation so they jump on to late . definately there is a big misunderstanding of how the market/price moves due to the mainstream teachings i guess and people like clever complicated answers when price only moves up or down. of course that was just one market condition above, there are others and they are traded differently,...
Hi... I am waiting for new operation (hope it is/should be last.... grump grump)... but ok thank you.

I think price pulls back and experts happy to get in .... others are not convinced... by time they get convinced it is overbought (maybe) so they panic out of it instead of maybe thinking well ok this is just PB so I can rescue and when we see frenzied large moves at end of trend it is peeps who were late to the party and frenzied greed is strong... then it all turns sour as the big guys who have been distributing stuff around know it is going other way for now.. I really felt this earlier this week or maybe end of last when I could feel them before end of push so I felt the dumps on the move and then we had one last push up. I wonder if this is why FTI talks about feel and not being trend rigid either... I used to wonder why not just trade with trend and forget all else.. but things change and there may be some signs of such big changes...... not sure yet exactly.

Anways still pushing on for now and improving bit by bit (with lots of help.... )... it is hard work but worth it.
Long yesterday cable for bit but not doing much today as I just do not feel right today about it.

Hope you gettin through your list.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,949
  • Sep 8, 2015 6:10am Sep 8, 2015 6:10am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hi... I am waiting for new operation (hope it is/should be last.... grump grump)... but ok thank you. I think price pulls back and experts happy to get in .... others are not convinced... by time they get convinced it is overbought (maybe) so they panic out of it instead of maybe thinking well ok this is just PB so I can rescue and when we see frenzied large moves at end of trend it is peeps who were late to the party and frenzied greed is strong... then it all turns sour as the big guys who have been distributing stuff around know it is...

Hi Alex

my friend i pray you get sorted and recover well this time .

my list is like climbing a mountain, every time i get to what i think is the top it turns out to be hiding another hill...


i like this explanation of the market cycle....


THE BANDWAGON THEORY: A GLIMPSE AT HOW THE MARKET REALLY WORKS.

Imagine a bandwagon that is rolling forward at a quickened pace. Music
that is very pleasing to the ear is being played from speakers on each side
of this bandwagon, and a few people currently on the back of the wagon
are partying, having the time of their lives. The music, loud and clear,
starts to attract many other onlookers that happen to be idly standing on
the sidelines. These onlookers, unable to resist the sweet sounds being
played, run to join the party that seems to be going on. Progressively,
more and more onlookers jump on the back of this bandwagon, and
those few who were initially enjoying the first phase of the party begin to
leave. As the crowd of new party animals on this bandwagon grows
larger, the bandwagon finds it harder and harder to move forward at the
same pace. It slows, enabling more and more late onlookers, witnessing
the great fun, the chance to jump on. The crowd grows even larger.
Larger and larger this crowd grows, until the bandwagon, heavily laden
with the bodies of drunken party animals, can no longer move forward.
It finally comes to a complete stop. Now that the bandwagon is at a com-
plete standstill, more people jump on. And why not? At this point, joining
the fun is easy. Absolutely no work is required, for individuals wanting
to join the crowd no longer have to run to jump on board. But the nature
of the bandwagon is to move forward. Its motionless state is unnatural,
and therefore cannot last. It tries to move forward again, but can’t. The
crowd, piled on back, is much too large. It must free itself of the heavy
burden. And it does. It quickly shifts into reverse, and jolts backward,
knocking a few of the party animals off the back. The music stops. Puz-
zled faces from the crowd begin to emerge. Before anyone figures out
what’s going on, another backward jerk takes place, only this one is more
violent. Another large group of people gets thrown off the back. Now, re-
ality sets in. The fun has turned into a nightmare of epic proportions, and
panic begins to run rampant. Some decide to jump to their deaths. An-
other thrust backwards sends an even larger group of drunken, off-
balance people, hurling to the muddy ground. It doesn’t stop. The jolts
backward continue, each successive one more violent than the last. At
this point, only a few die-hard wagon dwellers are holding on, their very
lives hanging in the balance by a very thin thread. Failing to be com-
pletely free, the bandwagon angrily puts the pedal to the metal, and this
final thrust backward is so vicious that its front wheels lift high off the
ground, momentarily suspending the wagon in a perpendicular posi-
tion. The last of the hangers-on crash to the ground, broken and maimed
to no end. At this point, a new group of onlookers emerge from the
nearby woods. They are clean and serene. Each movement they make is
deliberate and powerfully energetic, for they did not take part in the
tragedy that just transpired. Or did they? A few of the dejected souls ly-
ing on the ground take a closer look, a look that reveals something very
interesting. This seemingly new group is not new at all. It is the same
group that was seen quietly exiting the party before it came to its violent
end. An even closer examination by a few more beaten-down onlookers
reveals something even more stunning. This group not only exited the
party early, they were the originators of it! “My God,” someone exclaims.
Paralyzed, and unable to move freely, all these dejected souls can do is
watch, as the masters of the game go to work, again. No sooner does the
bandwagon’s wheels hit the ground than this professional platoon bolts
for the wagon. In a flash they are on board. Easy. The bandwagon, now
free of the larger crowd, can move forward freely and gracefully, com-
fortably carrying the more astute group with it. Its pace quickens, and
before long a smooth elegant stride is in place. After a few miles of unin-
terrupted movement, someone from this masterful group flips on a
switch, and suddenly the loud sounds of entertaining music start again.
Someone yells, “OK everyone. Here they come. Let’s do it again.” Within
moments, those who were the former victims of the backward crash be-
come interested again. The music almost calling them from the grave.
And once more, the never-ending cycle repeats.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,950
  • Sep 8, 2015 6:16am Sep 8, 2015 6:16am
Quoting phil13
{quote} THE BANDWAGON THEORY: .


Love it...thank you.... I will have this in my mind now.....we are like sheeples.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,951
  • Sep 8, 2015 5:21pm Sep 8, 2015 5:21pm
Quoting cakrajaya
{quote} absolutely and for me now, I only open position on "specified level price". price not on that specified level so its watching day, price on that specified level than prepare for attack.
Hi Cakra,
can you explain "specified price level ?"

rt15
  • #52,952
  • Sep 9, 2015 12:25am Sep 9, 2015 12:25am
Quoting rt15
{quote} Hi Cakra, can you explain "specified price level ?" rt15
support resistant, trend line things like that, and when prepare to attack several other things need be watching as on this master FTI said on first thread. each trader have their own unique and that make each trader have their own level to setting up. that is why 2 traders both of them can make a profit even on the same time have different decision making the one take buy, the other take sell.
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #52,953
  • Sep 9, 2015 1:55am Sep 9, 2015 1:55am
Quoting cakrajaya
{quote} support resistant, trend line things like that, and when prepare to attack several other things need be watching as on this master FTI said on first thread. each trader have their own unique and that make each trader have their own level to setting up. that is why 2 traders both of them can make a profit even on the same time have different decision making the one take buy, the other take sell.

Nothing matters except the way he/she dances it.

Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,954
  • Sep 9, 2015 2:21am Sep 9, 2015 2:21am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Nothing matters except the way he/she dances it. Regards
yes
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #52,955
  • Sep 9, 2015 3:33am Sep 9, 2015 3:33am
Quoting cakrajaya
{quote} yes
Hi all.


I am trying to improve my very very clumsy RoK skills. This mornings thoughts around London:

  1. USDJPY long + USDCHF short so not dollar move
  2. JPY: UJ long + others in acc/PB then breakout bam in EJ
  3. GBP: manufacturing news due in c. 2 hrs & in accumulation so some games to be played around this
  4. EUR: my main man short but I was not happy to go with it as acc signs in EU/EJ/EG & EUR in potential buy zone

I like my main man so much I can be a bit guilty of neglecting better ops so must improve.... starting to look around now better I hope. This morning I liked EJ.

I will get better with doing and following. Any advice would be most welcome.

check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,956
  • Sep 9, 2015 11:53am Sep 9, 2015 11:53am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hi all. I am trying to improve my very very clumsy RoK skills. This mornings thoughts around London: USDJPY long + USDCHF short so not dollar move JPY: UJ long + others in acc/PB then breakout bam in EJ GBP: manufacturing news due in c. 2 hrs & in accumulation so some games to be played around this EUR: my main man short but I was not happy to go with it as acc signs in EU/EJ/EG & EUR in potential buy zone I like my main man so much I can be a bit guilty of neglecting better ops so must improve.... starting to look around now better I hope....

Hi Alex

was not here to see what you are talking about earlier but the market to me is generally messy at the moment and so hard to try to 'feel' what is going on overall, for me in these kind of markets i would just hit and run using the higher and lower p/a in an individual pair to guide me and mainly trade at the most active times.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,957
  • Sep 9, 2015 12:28pm Sep 9, 2015 12:28pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alex was not here to see what you are talking about earlier but the market to me is generally messy at the moment and so hard to try to 'feel' what is going on overall, for me in these kind of markets i would just hit and run using the higher and lower p/a in an individual pair to guide me and mainly trade at the most active times. regards Phil.
Hi ... that is kinda what I am doing: euro h1 was what I used as my guide today (and it reacted at my zones and then out) and ej coz lots of reasons but been all over a bit. So been trying to do what you said hit & run and make sure I put myself out of danger.

Thanks for the advice and at least I know I am going about things as best I can at the mo'.... hope the list is going well.

I am trying to use RoK much better and I am starting (I think) to make more sense of some of it with news etc too. Boy there is loads to learn about and improve but nothing in life worth having comes that easy. It sure is an ant's job.

Regards

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,958
  • Sep 10, 2015 7:11am Sep 10, 2015 7:11am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 87 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 57 KB
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,959
  • Sep 10, 2015 3:45pm Sep 10, 2015 3:45pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi pannet1 I am not trying to tell you how to trade here, everyone does it differently according to their capital, emotions and experience, there is no right or wrong way, sometimes we can improve our entries/exits and so long as you are getting profit that is all that matters, you should be trading your account and doing the best you can to make it only go one way but it would appear that you do not understand how the market/price often moves in an orderly fashion and that is why you may be trading both ways at the same time here, maybe...
dear sweet phil ,

many thanks for your spending some of your invaluable time for me. it would be a sin if i do not say thanks. fully appreciate your help.

a) the screenshot i sent and narrated is made of HA candles that's why there is less noise.

b) it was all well (leaving the linear sells in between) till a entrancement came. while professionals will reload buys at the rest position, i covered the profit. this is a mindset i need to change.

c) before this, i want to clarify, how master sells in a downtrend first and then keeps on buying smaller lots down the trend (the famous screenshot of master's attached below once again).

Attached Image


i am trying to copy that while i am not perfect like master, i am still asking the basis of why you say one should not lock the profit with opposite orders. i am asking this to know if i am fundamentally wrong in my approach.

d) with regards to the price going to the previous day (or) the day before, don't worry. that was a escape route and sometimes a take profit level. i promise you i am not with a rigid mindset.

e) famous words of master that came along with the above chart once again for someone reading this thread from last pages :-)

quote
====
"Let me give you a hypotical scenerio.
lets say (for example only), (in reality I have much more muscle than this)that the fibo expansion is my MM play, ie 1,1,2,3,5,8
Now thats 20 sections.
I send in a scout (wave AB), he plays well and I decide to check him, I send in 1 checker, which is my level 2 (wave CD)
and level 2 plays well,that would mean that wave CD is short and plays above wave AB. If wave EF retraces then i would be forced to invoke rescue 5 and I go into rescue mode.If EF did not do that then the instance of the attack would be in wave EF, and if the dance dictates that I am in alignment with the daily trend and both the short charts, It would require that I would attack full force 5, 11 before the break away r/s point( normally somewhere in the mid of AF's range, and would be drawing the attack total of 16 in batches as we test into the r/s depending on the volatility whereby the market is taking that r/s out.
Then upon the test, profitaking of the attack sequense would be invoked into the stops-break on the reverse 8,5,3.
In effects I would be profit taking for ammo(foreign capital) to sustain the residue of the 4 that are still in battle. The four would be further lighten if the trend continues to persist. This would continue until what is left is 1. then a new sequence of 1,1,2,3,5,8 would be put on stand by to ride the next retrace wave, and when the retace wave flats out , the whole rescue and attack sequense would be replayed, depending on the magnitute of the retacement. If the retrace was a fat and bouncy one then the rescue MO was most appropriate. If a new attack opportunity sequence was surfaces, then a new attack sequence would be invoked with whatever was left from rescue.
In reality, you would be seeing that the risk of full force used at the most advantages probabilities and timing.
Of course it can happen that the market may move adverse after the strong attack, and thats when, the damagecontol is invoked to rescue as many of the positions still in good standing as possible and re-strategised( regrouped) for exposure rescue.
This attack sequense is not invoked when the market volatility is tight, Only when the legs are strong,(strong = range play 50 pips average) and volatility run of max 7 bars average 3.
16 lots attack was a decision , derived that the momentum of the swing towards the support. There is no logical mathematics for that, except that it was a decision for a quick and final attack sequence . (note that the my net available exposure can be only 20 for this example. 4 was used and 16 is the residue unused). Notice that the high exposure was not tolerant of stay in the market, and is used to forage for "foreign capital" to sustain the actual 4 as ammo to ride a little, but risklessly.
This exercise was a favourable run, but there will be instances where all 20 can be at a loss. That would present a rescue scenerio that requires that the trader will exceed his 10% capital at risk. It can escalate to 30 % very quickly dependent on the volatility. So in essence , a rescue of higher order is required. This is difficult for the undercapitalised or unprepared.

For not so experienced traders, they have to be careful to attempt it this way. It is aggressive, but is how professionals operate. The lesson here for the smaller traders, is that, if they did their sums, most traders are actually in effects overtrading, and the leverage facilities accorded them, actually, helping to accelerate their ruin.

It is no rocket science to model this MO. There is no wrongs or rights. And no one can construct a model for another trader. At the end of the day , the trader have to find his own niche and equilibrium.

This is the reasons for my hesitation to bring all except the concepts on the table. That only those who can understand and build their own models will undertake the risk."

quote
====
  • #52,960
  • Sep 10, 2015 9:16pm Sep 10, 2015 9:16pm
Quoting pannet1
Hi alex, Thanks. {quote} This is the bad habit i need to unlearn. see am in +1 then i see a little lag in momentum, i tend to lock the profit quickly with a -1. Then again if price moves above this -1, am in with another +2. Now if price moves again below both the +2 and -1, am in with another -1. So more deeper the retrace the more -1 and -2 only to realize sooner or later price had moved above all thereby leaving me with several -Sells. {quote} I tried to rescue till i had the last energy and i was ready for another rescue if the price went south....
have you read this thread from the begining on mindset?
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
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