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  • #27,081
  • Sep 2, 2015 10:31am Sep 2, 2015 10:31am
Quoting ZeeDeveel
{quote} Bare with me here, I'd really appreciate a thorough answer on this because it's a big problem area for me. I've been trading VSA for a while now and have had mixed success, mostly focusing on high volume reactions, upthrusts and effort vs results but I'm still unsure about a market moving on low volume. Whenever I see a market moving (let's say for example) up on low volume, I am inclined to think "it's taken less ticks to move the market up this distance, so less effort has been required to produce the result, so this candle is bullish."...
Reading Pres78's posts and asking questions like these......... Soon the herd will fill Your orders too.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,082
  • Sep 2, 2015 11:16am Sep 2, 2015 11:16am
Quoting ZeeDeveel
{quote} Bare with me here, I'd really appreciate a thorough answer on this because it's a big problem area for me. I've been trading VSA for a while now and have had mixed success, mostly focusing on high volume reactions, upthrusts and effort vs results but I'm still unsure about a market moving on low volume. Whenever I see a market moving (let's say for example) up on low volume, I am inclined to think "it's taken less ticks to move the market up this distance, so less effort has been required to produce the result, so this candle is bullish."...
Wow this must be keeping you up at night. That's a whole lot of thoughts. I will offer a few simple replies that touch on how I see things. You can agree or disagree as what I say is far from gospel. It is all simply my take and my 2 cents. Nothing more.

ZD - 1) How can a market move without professional interest? We're told that 90%+ of the money in the markets is professional money. If there is no professional interest in the market moving up, then how can the herd move the market up on low volume? This can only be done if there is almost no resistance to higher prices from the smart money. Yet smart money is bearish, so how can that be? The only solution I can come up with, is that the smart money is through accident or coincidence very well co-ordinated and the vast majority of it has completely with drawn from the market. So they are not pushing the price up, but equally they have no interest in resisting the up move.

pres78 - when markets are moving on low volume it shows a lack of activity and you are right the markets when trending are a result of big money not the herd. That said consider this... If the SM were buyers throughout the day and we end up with an imbalance where the sellers lose and the buyers win we have an up trending day. Now the only thing that can stop the up move is sellers and a market that is brought back into balance. This is why we hear that in falling markets the SM will step in and support the market to keep it from free falling. Sellers (which can be sellers or buyers taking profit) are what stop up moves, not lack of buyers. An imbalanced market could in theory with no further new activity rise or fall forever. Your last statement in this paragraph hits the nail on the head. While they are no longer actively looking to fill buy orders they are also not actively exiting the buy order nor trying to fill sell orders.

ZD - 2) If there is a low volume up bar with a medium spread closing near it's high, is this ever a ND candle? TW talks about there being a lack of power on the accelerator so it must be a false move... but Wyckoff seems to say that due to EvR, if it's made a reasonable amount of progress on low volume, there is a lack of resistance so it's a bullish sign. What then should we define as our NS/ND candles? Do we only take candles which close in the middle / low (for an up bar)? Only candles with a small spread? Is the answer in waiting for a close above/below?

pres78 - I call those NBP (no buying pressure). While these buys show lack of buying they also show lack of selling. I would consider these bulish in a strong market, bearish in a weak market and bearish after a climatic up bar in a transitional market. True ND / NS are said to be narrow range, closing at or near the mid point. Again these need to be taken within the larger background picture.

ZD - 3) TW also talks about high volume being required to break through a trendline or S/R. Very often it seems price moves to a trendline (say a resistance point above the market) then you get a few no supply candles then the trendline is broken on relatively low volume. High volume here seems to be resistance, very likely in my view to be the herd frantically trying to trade a breakout, whilst the smart money is selling to them. High volume often leads to an upthrust. Plus if there is high volume at a line of resistance, this shows a lot of interest in both buying and selling. I believe that SM is not going to markup price while there is so much interest, they will absorb it and build a position. So if SM really was bullish and high volume turns up at resistance, they will likely let the herd push it down and continue to buy from them, waiting for the herd to give up before marking price up.

pres78 - I agree to a point with what he says in that many times high activity is required. Let's say a trend line or S/R is at a point point of previous high activity. There could be many sellers and buyers waiting there. Think about this... We have price approaching a "double top", we now have interested sellers who want to sell the double top and we have interested buyers who want to buy the break out. Now depending on what kind of positions they SM are building they may chose to participate in one side or the other to continue their position building. This is what we many times see 2 or 3 touches of a level before it breaks because of this battle and position building. You are correct in that we also see markets hit a level, consolidate on low volume and then the level gives way easily. Basically if the market is already in imbalance and trending there may be very few opposing orders at that level which is turn means little resistance to be absorbed. Again you are correct that many times these surges in activity at points such as these do lead to UT bars as the battle ensues. I would like to point out that UT for me are only of value in falling markets. If I see one in an uptrend I do not consider them a SOW without further confirmation. The amount of times we see a SO followed by an UT or an UT follow by a SO and then higher prices is crazy. If you think about the logic behind what is happening in this two bar pattern it will make sense.

ZD - 4) SM buys low, sells high.. so shouldn't bullish volume be volume which increases on downmoves? Not upmoves as TW says. If volume is increasing on upmoves, it's taking an increasing amount of volume to move the market, which is a bad sign for the up move. Or are these statements about "bullish and bearish volume" to be taken in isolation? i.e. without looking at the spreads of each bar. It would make sense that increasing volume on an upmove is bullish only if the spreads of each bar are also increasing.

pres78 - most major buying occurs hidden in down bars on climatic volume. Buying however when at resistance levels or supply zones can and will appear on up-bars as the SM buy as the market rises to fill / absorb the sell orders that need to be removed for higher prices to be seen. I agree with your last sentence, I would add and that volume is healthy but not excessively high.

ZD - 5) Can the big market makers like Deutsche Bank manipulate price in the wrong direction without actually committing any money? If they're able to just somehow magically move the price upwards without buying themselves, this would explain how a low volume upmove can be bearish. Is this possible? By messing with the spreads perhaps? Thanks so much.

pres78 - No. Messing with spreads while it may fill or stop out traders, new orders can't come to market without new money. Price moving up or down due to spread only does not by itself fill orders. We need the buyers and sellers to come together at the markets prices. Now the one thing I guess we could perhaps say is that when spreads start widening during high (or low) volatility periods the buyers and sellers are filling each others orders from much further apart on the price scale since each side are filled at different prices (Bid and Ask).

Well that is all I am going to say. I hope some of this helps a little. You are asking some great questions. You need to understand market dynamics to see how the herd are suckered in and slaughtered on a daily basis. I love VSA and owe all my success and where I am at now with my trading to it.

I however do not agree with all they teach and also know that software is not needed to trade VSA even in it's purest form.

My disagreements in what they teach has lead me to my own discoveries after a journey of question asking which ultimately has lead me to trade the way I trade. A little VSA with a lot of pres78 mixed in.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,083
  • Edited 12:36pm Sep 2, 2015 11:57am | Edited 12:36pm
I'm very grateful to you Pres, thank you. This literally has been keeping me up at night, you're quite right lol. I believe there are people who can have success by following a system verbatim like driving the car without knowing how to fix the engine, but I'm not one of them. I need to understand how things work for myself, if something doesn't make sense to me, I can't apply it.

I'll have to re-read your post a few times but I'm sure some of this info is just what I was looking for.

One thing burns in my mind though...

Quote
An imbalanced market could in theory with no further new activity rise or fall forever.

I've just assumed that prices move up because people are buying. You've made me realise that prices move up because people are unwilling to sell at a price level. Price will move up until sellers step in, no buyers are even required. So this really explains how a market can move up on low volume. No one is actually buying it, but no one is selling it either. *mindblown*
"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #27,084
  • Sep 2, 2015 5:24pm Sep 2, 2015 5:24pm
Oil watch 45.16.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,085
  • Sep 3, 2015 2:41am Sep 3, 2015 2:41am
EURNZD short. Simple. 30 minute zones from yesterday. See the shared level. This adds value. That is why I shorted from that level rather than the low. I have shown these shared levels many times before so I won't beat that to death. I knew this level last night hours before the trade.y
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,086
  • Sep 3, 2015 3:24am Sep 3, 2015 3:24am
Quoting pres78
I would like to mention that while I gave a couple of scenarios for possible shorts on EURUSD I am also very aware of the fact that we have found support at my line in the sand for the bulls I posted about some time ago (1.115). Based on a bounce at 1.115 the bull PA structure is still firmly in place as it would be a HL. I would want to see signs of clear buying and lack of selling before I become a longer term buyer on this pair.
can you please explain it more how you see clear buying and lack of selling for longs and inverse for short. because still not good on making difference in absorption of buy or sell orders and true SOW and SOS. some charts will be nice if you have time.
thanks for your recent posts and comments. found some new pages for VZA book. long live Pres78(J)
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #27,087
  • Sep 3, 2015 5:16am Sep 3, 2015 5:16am
By "Shared Level" are we talking about confluence of levels between highs/lows/fibs/round numbers e.g. a 50 fib falling on top of a whole number?
"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #27,088
  • Sep 3, 2015 6:22am Sep 3, 2015 6:22am
Quoting pres78
EURNZD short. Simple. 30 minute zones from yesterday....
right level separates buyer and seller.
  • #27,089
  • Sep 3, 2015 11:54am Sep 3, 2015 11:54am
Quoting pres78
EURNZD short. Simple. 30 minute zones from yesterday. See the shared level. This adds value. That is why I shorted from that level rather than the low. I have shown these shared levels many times before so I won't beat that to death. I knew this level last night hours before the trade.y {image}
Trade partially closed out balance locked nicely in profit.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,090
  • Sep 3, 2015 2:23pm Sep 3, 2015 2:23pm
This is an interesting point of discussion I think.

"In the last phase of the buying climax, the market will be seen to close in the middle or high of the bar. " - Tom Williams, Master The Markets

I don't think Tom gives much of an explanation for this but, my explanation would be that the smart money is aware of the significance of particularly 60min and daily bar closes to the retail trader. If they want to fill as many orders as possible, it's profitable to let climax bars close near their highs. Very often we're on the lookout for the big pin / shooting star / hangman / hammer type candle in these situations but perhaps an engulfing sort of pattern is just as significant. After all, a 1H 2 bar engulfing pattern would look like a big pin bar on a 2H timeframe. 1H up closing on the high, followed by 1H down closing at the low = 2H pin bar with the huge wick on top.
"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #27,091
  • Edited 12:40am Sep 4, 2015 12:27am | Edited 12:40am
GBPJPY early morning shorting anyone?

low of pres78 bar

though the entry was on a lower tf.



*Disclaimer: I use the method (daily 1H h.v.b high/low) mentioned by pres78 in conjunction with other tools.
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #27,092
  • Sep 4, 2015 10:15am Sep 4, 2015 10:15am
Quoting Vcv13
GBPJPY early morning shorting anyone? low of pres78 bar though the entry was on a lower tf. *Disclaimer: I use the method (daily 1H h.v.b high/low) mentioned by pres78 in conjunction with other tools.
No lower TF trade for me today on that pair but last night as the new daily bar opened I entered a daily short after a pres78 2BR into the low of the highest volume daily bar zone low. Will be closing half after done this post and the balance to BE for now.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,093
  • Sep 4, 2015 10:38am Sep 4, 2015 10:38am
Quoting Vcv13
GBPJPY early morning shorting anyone? low of pres78 bar though the entry was on a lower tf. *Disclaimer: I use the method (daily 1H h.v.b high/low) mentioned by pres78 in conjunction with other tools.

Yep lol
  • #27,094
  • Edited 11:08am Sep 4, 2015 10:49am | Edited 11:08am
Where is a gong away gift to those who do not want to pay an arm and a leg for tradeguider - here is a lookalike chart setup.
3: TradeGuider Chart lookalike
If you want to have a system that work like the diamond and volume try the below
- There maybe a few other small rules - but you will be amazed how close the below will come

A. Basic Small 'Diamond Indicator'
Uses a 5 period MA as its default. - Its easy to eyeball it
Logic:
If Price closes below the MA a red diamond will paint in Trade Station.
If Price closes above the MA a green diamond will paint.
Notes:
1. white diamond: warning of a possible trend change and that is the white diamond.
(a) If you're in a downtrend, closing below the MA then all of a sudden you get a close above the MA that would paint you a white diamond.
If price then reversed and closed below the MA on the following bar, this would also be a white diamond.
(b) In order for either the red or green diamond to paint, it will need to be a 2nd close on that side of the MA since the 1st will be white.
2. If the MA goes from down to up then it goes red to green immediately.
3. If it is still down but the close is above then it will go white.
4. If a Bar move down in an downtrend taking out 2 or more bar's lows & closes diamonds will go right to red.


B. Relative Volume Band Code:
Average range is just a 15 bar EMA.
Very High Band is 1.75 times the 15 EMA.
Very low range is 0.25 times the 15 EMA

Can placed a BBand on the Volume bar
- Setting 15 and .75
- or just a setting of 1 will do - as some platforms will not let you do a settings of .75

  1. Logic:

  1. Any reading equal to the upper band = Very High Volume.
  2. Any reading above the upper band = Ultra High Volume
  3. Any reading between the middle band (average) and upper band = High Volume
  4. Any reading around the middle band = Average Volume
  5. Any reading in the area below the average band and the lowest band = Low Volume
  6. Any reading below the bottom band = Very Low Volume


C. Big Diamonds Signal:
Tradeguiders big diamonds are based on:
3 higher highs (green)
3 lower lows (red)
Mixed is (white)
UpBar in downtrend on low Volume doesnt count
DownBar on a uptrend on low Volume doesnt count

I hope it helps someone

TEB

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  • #27,095
  • Edited 5:25pm Sep 4, 2015 1:48pm | Edited 5:25pm
Quoting TEB63
Where is a gong away gift to those who do not want to pay an arm and a leg for tradeguider - here is a lookalike chart setup.
Now why would anyone ever want that?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,096
  • Sep 4, 2015 7:12pm Sep 4, 2015 7:12pm
Hi All,

Can some explain or point me in the right direction to explain the symbols on the VSA signals v1.01 indi?

Thanks!! oh polomine love the templates :-)

Happy pipping
  • #27,097
  • Sep 7, 2015 4:29pm Sep 7, 2015 4:29pm
Been doing a LOT of learning and reading.

Read a lot about smart money mostly being not as co-ordinated and smart as I previously thought. Also that on smaller timeframes there is probably a considerable amount of "noise" as lots of money goes through the FX market from funds hedging their portfolios, FX swaps, big bank transactions etc. So there is a lot of trading going on involving people who don't really care which way the market is moving or expecting to move, they just need some EUR for their USD, or some similar scenario. This must mean that potentially there are a lot of red herrings you could stumble over on small timeframes as big orders are processed at seemingly random times without concern for market sentiment. So I'm gonna stop fretting over what every M5 bar means and concentrate on repeated price action behaviour and areas of S/R / S/D.

I'd love to hear opinions on what happens during wide spread bars and why they attract price. Are these gaps in the market areas of low order density( so price is able to traverse them easily?) If this is the case, then why do the edges of the zones often act as S/R? Should we only look to trade the outer edges of these gap zones when price has shown strong continuation signs before retesting them? If not, look for them to be filled?
"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #27,098
  • Sep 8, 2015 2:24am Sep 8, 2015 2:24am
Hey everyone

is there anyone using OBV & good at writing MT4 indicators?

The problem with OBV is it treats every up bar volume as buying/positive, what I was looking for is if we have a down bar following any up bar the volume on that up bar should be treated as negative.

up & up = positive

up & down = negative

down & down = negative

down & up = positive

possible???
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #27,099
  • Sep 9, 2015 3:08am Sep 9, 2015 3:08am
Quoting pres78
{quote} No lower TF trade for me today on that pair but last night as the new daily bar opened I entered a daily short after a pres78 2BR into the low of the highest volume daily bar zone low. Will be closing half after done this post and the balance to BE for now. {image}
Hi Pres,

You mentioned pres78 2BR couple of times. How is a pres78 2BR different from a regular 2BR ? If a 2BR shows up at an important zone, it will be a pres78 2BR ?
  • #27,100
  • Sep 9, 2015 6:45am Sep 9, 2015 6:45am
Quoting pooh123
{quote} Hi Pres, You mentioned pres78 2BR couple of times. How is a pres78 2BR different from a regular 2BR ? If a 2BR shows up at an important zone, it will be a pres78 2BR ?
Oh I've mentioned them hundreds of times I'm sure ...

Basically a standard 2BR whether a buyers reversal or a sellers reversal should be happening somewhere important where the PA makes sense. A standard 2BR as I learned them basically we see a down bar, followed by an up bar that has made a LL, has increased volume and closes on the high preferably above at least the mid point of the down bar (reverse all this for a sellers reversal).

A pres78 2BR has all the same features except that the second bar of the reversal is on lower volume than the first bar basically making it a test type bar.

Volume aside what you need to come to grips with is what these two bars signify as far as PA is concerned. The second bar making that LL or HH and then closing strongly in the opposing direction is a key event.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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