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  • #10,561
  • Sep 7, 2015 5:43pm Sep 7, 2015 5:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Melvin disappeared when I didn't say what he wanted to hear.
Not surprising. All the Trading View traders are long call/putters ... . They don't want to hear how low prob long strangles/straddles are ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,562
  • Sep 7, 2015 5:44pm Sep 7, 2015 5:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I knew college kids back in those days, smuggling cocaine, using the drug money on tech stocks that tripled in a month, rinse/repeat. Make shitloads and waste it all on more blow and cars and trips and Miami Vice clothes. Where are they now...?
I knew the same guys ... . Using excess student loan money to day trade ... . Winning big, losing big ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,563
  • Sep 7, 2015 5:45pm Sep 7, 2015 5:45pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Can you tell if they're debit/credit spreads? I'm assuming that the 9000 Sep 4 28.5 C's are paired with partial fills of the other Sep 4 36 C's ... . That would be a strange-ass spread (a 2.18 debit/2.18 credit, depending).
I didn't spend a lot of time - there were some obvious pairs, but I didn't put everything together. What I don't know is whether the trades were separate but went through as a batch - from one broker with good access, for instance....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,564
  • Sep 7, 2015 5:46pm Sep 7, 2015 5:46pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Not surprising. All the Trading View traders are long call/putters ... . They don't want to hear how low prob long strangles/straddles are ... .
well let them find out the hard way, no teacher like Experience
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,565
  • Sep 7, 2015 6:03pm Sep 7, 2015 6:03pm
Hoping the US markets start to disconnect a bit from Chinese market performance ... . /ES, Nikkei futures up slightly in spite of Chinese post-4-day-holiday 2.5% sell-off ... . Treasuries down small ... . http://finance.yahoo.com/news/long-w...225337067.html
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,566
  • Sep 7, 2015 9:35pm Sep 7, 2015 9:35pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Hoping the US markets start to disconnect a bit from Chinese market performance ...
7 td's til the Sept FOMC...and the end of life as we know it. Orrrr....another can kick and another rally.....tick tock
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,567
  • Sep 7, 2015 9:54pm Sep 7, 2015 9:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} 7 td's til the Sept FOMC...and the end of life as we know it. Orrrr....another can kick and another rally.....tick tock
The arms of the drummer who's doin' the roll are getting awfully tired ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,568
  • Sep 7, 2015 10:18pm Sep 7, 2015 10:18pm
yeah no shit. It's a binary event possibility & one I want to get set up for.....the diag below will be a little cheaper tomorrow if VXX slides on a rising spoos, if not I will look for a way to fund it

it says, "JY pulls the pin fire in the hole omg you bastards better run and VXX retests the highs of a week or so ago maybe higher but you only have a day or two so best of luck"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-09-07_vxx.png Size: 68 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,569
  • Sep 7, 2015 10:31pm Sep 7, 2015 10:31pm
Quoting The Fool
It's a binary event possibility & one I want to get set up for.....
to play the other end of it (Fed whiffs, equities rally) there are good opps in the Sept5/Oct1 spreads - there's just 2 td's difference between the expries, so, if ya like cheap spreads - look there (on the names that have those Sept5's, the quarterlies...that's SPY, QQQ, XLE, DIA, GLD, IWM)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,570
  • Sep 7, 2015 10:54pm Sep 7, 2015 10:54pm
Quoting The Fool
short fiber will pay well, I agree, just as soon as the Fed gets off the dime - Sept? October? December? after QE4?
I like to trade spreads but diags and credit condors eat up the margin, so when I am running low, I look at calendars & verticals, the FXE calendar below might come off a cent or two if fiber keeps rallying, max return is about 5-6x
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-09-07_FXE.png Size: 58 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,571
  • Sep 7, 2015 11:49pm Sep 7, 2015 11:49pm
Quoting The Fool
yeah no shit. It's a binary event possibility & one I want to get set up for.....the diag below will be a little cheaper tomorrow if VXX slides on a rising spoos, if not I will look for a way to fund it it says, "JY pulls the pin fire in the hole omg you bastards better run and VXX retests the highs of a week or so ago maybe higher but you only have a day or two so best of luck" {image}
I'm thinking we might get a slight pre-FOMC vol contraction because of lowered participation in the market leading up to the blah blah ... . That debit spread might get cheaper briefly ... . On the other hand, we may get media mouth froth, gesticulation, and hand-wringing pointing in all different directions pre-FOMC, leading to a market downturn as concerned investors bail from the market (although I think we've already had plenty of that). I'll just have to keep a better eye on it than I did before this "little correction" we had ... . I was in it a little bit, but didn't anticipate the duration of heightened vol and only went two to three weeks out ... .

The Fed isn't telegraphing much ... . There was all this hoo-hah over "market uncertainties" in the media as a concern; that language didn't directly surface in the FOMC minutes, really, although there was a brief nod to "inflation" ... . I fully expect either 0 or something token, like .125 bps ... . (Janet: "Hey, that .125 shows we mean business!!!).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,572
  • Sep 8, 2015 12:05am Sep 8, 2015 12:05am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
The Fed isn't telegraphing much ... . There was all this hoo-hah
they are sposed to black-out the hot air beginning the week before the meeting, we could see a lot of chop, panic, complacent buying....who knows? Anyway, I am set up for the downside pretty well & intend to get in the balanced upside trades within the day. Good Luck, ZS, and may the trading gods be with us...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,573
  • Sep 8, 2015 12:37am Sep 8, 2015 12:37am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Melvin disappeared when I didn't say what he wanted to hear.
Sir Fool, I didn't reply as I still don't understand about Vertical Spreads. The reason I went long put is because it is something I understand. I am also expecting a big move on Sept 18.

I have also been reading a lot on the G20 Ankara meeting, Fed hike related articles, looking at fed futures probability.
  • #10,574
  • Sep 8, 2015 12:45am Sep 8, 2015 12:45am
Quoting titanmelvin
{quote} Sir Fool, I didn't reply as I still don't understand about Vertical Spreads. The reason I went long put is because it is something I understand. I am also expecting a big move on Sept 18. I have also been reading a lot on the G20 Ankara meeting, Fed hike related articles, looking at fed futures probability.
it's cool, amigo. Good luck on whatever trades you decide to do. I think the possibility of a Sept FOMC funds rate hike is very good. But, I could be wrong about that, so I am also trading spreads for an equities rally (and a vix drop) in the week after the meeting. I hope you will take the time to learn about trading vertical spreads. Most straight long call or long put trades end up expiring worthless.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,575
  • Sep 8, 2015 1:03am Sep 8, 2015 1:03am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} it's cool, amigo. Good luck on whatever trades you decide to do. I think the possibility of a Sept FOMC funds rate hike is very good. But, I could be wrong about that, so I am also trading spreads for an equities rally (and a vix drop) in the week after the meeting. I hope you will take the time to learn about trading vertical spreads. Most straight long call or long put trades end up expiring worthless.....
I have Put Gold 1030, expiry 24 Sept. Yes, I just realized that options become very cheap(or worthless) when very near to expiry. I am interested in this trade because of the possibility of the Sept fed hike, which will cause big volatility. Some analysts are saying 30%, some 50%, fed funds futures 20+%.

Assuming that fed does hike the rates by 0.25%. Which indices or commodities do you think will drop the most or fastest?
  • #10,576
  • Sep 8, 2015 2:03am Sep 8, 2015 2:03am
Quoting titanmelvin
Assuming that fed does hike the rates by 0.25%. Which indices or commodities do you think will drop the most or fastest?
nothing better than the VIX-derivative names if you want to catch a quick move - VXX or UVXY (but I would not recommend them for a beginner). Also look for further drops in the US equity indices - SPY, QQQ, IWM. Don't take this the wrong way, but I might recommend you just paper trade until you understand more. The markets will still be here then....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,577
  • Sep 8, 2015 2:58am Sep 8, 2015 2:58am
a little downside protection for the long call VXX diag shown above ..... these debits will change Tues w/ /ES showing a 30+ gap up working ---- the putside diag will need to slide down, I have calls set for a 15c entry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-09-08_0055vxx.png Size: 74 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,578
  • Edited 8:56am Sep 8, 2015 8:42am | Edited 8:56am
filled UNG Jan $17/$18 vert calls for 9c; also UNG Jan/Apr diag calls @ $19/$20 for 15c

filled Sep/Sep4 FXE $105 diag puts for 6c - will double up wit da calls
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,579
  • Sep 8, 2015 9:10am Sep 8, 2015 9:10am
I have got some good SPY setups, just patiently waiting for the coming storm/no storm

The Sep/Sep4 double diagonal (DD) below cost 8c for the $180/181 and 4c for the $205/205.5....I am sitting now at the dead nuts low spot on the P/L, but it won't be so just after the FOMC
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-09-08_0705spy.png Size: 67 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,580
  • Sep 8, 2015 9:45am Sep 8, 2015 9:45am
ASHR DD, cost 12c net, a lot can happen tween now & Dec & will....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-09-08_0742ashr.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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