Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 300 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,981
  • Edited 3:04am Sep 3, 2015 12:16am | Edited 3:04am
Quoting blackwinner0
{image}
Indeed we are not only high but 'in' the weekly supply zone but already consumed 62% of its span through north and we are in a retrace in this manner. Sure price didn't breach the distal weekly line yet BUT I generally take a trade in situations like these, especially if trends are with me and reward to risk ratio is really high (think the profit if W1 SZ would be breached) BUT with 'reduced' risk and more wiggle room.
Trade what you see..
  • #5,982
  • Sep 3, 2015 2:27am Sep 3, 2015 2:27am
Ive uploaded the AUDUSD H1 ENTRY can someone help me if it is correct??
  • #5,983
  • Sep 3, 2015 2:32am Sep 3, 2015 2:32am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} Indeed we are not only high but 'in' the weekly supply zone but already consumed 62% of its span through north and we are in a retrace in this manner. Sure price didn't breach the distal weekly line yet BUT I generally take a trade in situations like these, especially if trends are with me and risk to reward ratio is really high (think the profit if W1 SZ would be breached) BUT with 'reduced' risk and more wiggle room.
Okay

What is ur perception about the AUD USD trade??
  • #5,984
  • Sep 3, 2015 3:28am Sep 3, 2015 3:28am
Quoting blackwinner0
{quote} Okay What is ur perception about the AUD USD trade??
I have a pending sell around the same level but on H4 zone, of course if price remains under the trend line when level is reached, so my eyes will be on this.
By the way don't forget that Alfonso doesn't allow analysis below H4 to be shared on this thread
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade what you see..
  • #5,985
  • Sep 3, 2015 3:45am Sep 3, 2015 3:45am
Quoting blackwinner0
{image}
H1 charts are not allowed in the thread my friend. Minimum timeframe is H4, please read the first post. Also you have not done any kind of tope down analysis, not drawn any trendline, etc. We can't do the analysis for you, that H1 zone is up there but you are the only one that knows the analysis you have done, which you haven't shared with us by the way, so I can't help because of that. I can't help either because H1 charts are not allowed. I'd ask you to request a cleanup request and/or delete the post please, it goes against the rules.

AUD/USD bias is shorts as mentioned in previous posts. I'm holding a short from much higher for more than 2 months.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,986
  • Sep 3, 2015 3:47am Sep 3, 2015 3:47am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} I have a pending sell around the same level but on H4 zone, of course if price remains under the trend line when level is reached, so my eyes will be on this. By the way don't forget that Alfonso doesn't allow analysis below H4 to be shared on this thread {image}
Thanks for reminding him of that, that H1 timeframes are not allowed. It's not that I don't allow them, the thread's rules do not allow them, we must abide by the rules if you expect to have help, and in order to get help, rules need to be followed or this thread would be chaos with lower timeframes, bigger timeframes, scalping, etc.

Thanks again.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,987
  • Sep 3, 2015 4:06am Sep 3, 2015 4:06am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Thanks for reminding him of that, that H1 timeframes are not allowed. It's not that I don't allow them, the thread's rules do not allow them, we must abide by the rules if you expect to have help, and in order to get help, rules need to be followed or this thread would be chaos with lower timeframes, bigger timeframes, scalping, etc. Thanks again. Cheers, Alfonso
Trade what you see..
  • #5,988
  • Sep 3, 2015 8:40am Sep 3, 2015 8:40am
Quoting John.
This is H4 DZ (1) I wanted to trade but I was not sure because of that small CP (2) above. DZ (1) did not accomplish anything in fact. Everything was accomplished by CP (2) but I did not like the base of CP (2). So I missed the trade. Any recommendations how to analyse such zones (when we have a small CP level on the top of our level)? I see such combinations very often.
Alfonso, thanks a lot for your help! Could you comment this question please. I do not upload WK & D1 charts, just H4 with the zones. Thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,989
  • Sep 3, 2015 9:30am Sep 3, 2015 9:30am
Quoting John.
{quote} Alfonso, thanks a lot for your help! Could you comment this question please. I do not upload WK & D1 charts, just H4 with the zones. Thanks! {image}
That CP 1 is part of valley's basing at the bottom. My recommendation would be that you stick to CPs that are separated from valleys/peaks. If they are on top of a valley/peak, consider the zone as a whole, makes sense?

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,990
  • Sep 3, 2015 9:42am Sep 3, 2015 9:42am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} That CP 1 is part of valley's basing at the bottom. My recommendation would be that you stick to CPs that are separated from valleys/peaks. If they are on top of a valley/peak, consider the zone as a whole, makes sense? Cheers, Alfonso
Yes, it makes sense! Great! Thank you!
  • #5,991
  • Sep 3, 2015 11:42am Sep 3, 2015 11:42am
Hi, I have a question about money management. What is the risk percent per trade you take? Do you have a maximum of open trades at the same time without breakeven?.
  • #5,992
  • Sep 3, 2015 11:30pm Sep 3, 2015 11:30pm
Quoting Baifo
Hi, I have a question about money management. What is the risk percent per trade you take? Do you have a maximum of open trades at the same time without breakeven?.
1% for each trade. I take all valid trades that I spot. I trade daily imbalances, I don't have 50 trades at a time as you can imagine. I have had more than 40 running at the same time, but if more than 10, I won't open a new one unless I have moved to breakeven 1 of the 10 and locked in some profit in others.

Cheers,
Alfonso

P.S. Your nickname sounds familiar to me, are you from the Canary Islands? No se me fue el baifo
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,993
  • Sep 4, 2015 12:31am Sep 4, 2015 12:31am
As described in a previous post, there was a possibility for shorts on Brent H4 timeframe. Brent reacted to H4 supply zone nested within marubozu WK supply and reacting nicely to it for now. Lots of room to drop IF we take out previous H4 bullish engulf.

Read the original post on Brent for more information about this particular trade

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,994
  • Sep 4, 2015 3:48am Sep 4, 2015 3:48am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} 1% for each trade. I take all valid trades that I spot. I trade daily imbalances, I don't have 50 trades at a time as you can imagine. I have had more than 40 running at the same time, but if more than 10, I won't open a new one unless I have moved to breakeven 1 of the 10 and locked in some profit in others. Cheers, Alfonso P.S. Your nickname sounds familiar to me, are you from the Canary Islands? No se me fue el baifo
40 running trades? Unbelievable You must be very aggressive trader! I work with 30+ currencies and trade H4 imbalances but I have about 4-5 trades per month (and that is a problem, most trades I want to take are against some of the rules and I do not take them).
Can you show us some of your trades? Some wins and some losses. If we can see some of your trades we can analyse them and find something useful. We could ask ourselves "Could I find that trade and take it".
  • #5,995
  • Sep 4, 2015 4:11am Sep 4, 2015 4:11am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} 1% for each trade. I take all valid trades that I spot. I trade daily imbalances, I don't have 50 trades at a time as you can imagine. I have had more than 40 running at the same time, but if more than 10, I won't open a new one unless I have moved to breakeven 1 of the 10 and locked in some profit in others. Cheers, Alfonso P.S. Your nickname sounds familiar to me, are you from the Canary Islands? No se me fue el baifo
Thanks for your answer!
P.S. Yes, I'm from from Tenerife, that's a expression we use here in Canary islands "se me fue el baifo".
  • #5,996
  • Sep 4, 2015 4:29am Sep 4, 2015 4:29am
USDZAR H4 momentum long
WK - up/demand in control
Daily - up/demand in control - overextended
H4 - up/good base/good departure

It's difficult to decide to take a trade or not. On the one hand we can see strong move, all demand zones are respected, all trends are up.
On the other hand Daily is overextended so longs are allowed on confirmation only and price is near to all time high.

I think that it's better not to trade until at least WK will close above all time high. But may be I'm too conservative?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,997
  • Sep 4, 2015 4:45am Sep 4, 2015 4:45am
Quoting John.
USDZAR H4 momentum long WK - up/demand in control Daily - up/demand in control - overextended H4 - up/good base/good departure It's difficult to decide to take a trade or not. On the one hand we can see strong move, all demand zones are respected, all trends are up. On the other hand Daily is overextended so longs are allowed on confirmation only and price is near to all time high. I think that it's better not to trade until at least WK will close above all time high. But may be I'm too conservative? {image} {image} {image}
I have a tiny pending buy on the same H4 level but my H4 trend line is aggressive than yours. Also my broker's MT4, my broker's other trading platform, generic MT4 and tradingview.com don't have a daily bar which is reaching 14.00000+ on 24th August I feel a kiss there.
Edit: Added tradingview shot and don't copy my stop price as I'm trying something there out of S&D rules. According to rules, I should have placed stop below the red (even blue) bar on the left but I don't.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDZARDaily.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDZAR 13.63849 ▲ 0.7 Unnamed TradingView.png Size: 170 KB
Trade what you see..
  • #5,998
  • Sep 4, 2015 5:18am Sep 4, 2015 5:18am
Chawl, thanks for charts. They really differ from my broker.
==============
EURJPY - it seems that the next week may give us good chances to go short?
WK DZ is broken out. WK is down now and supply in control. If WK will close below this broken DZ we will have plenty of room down.
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  • #5,999
  • Sep 4, 2015 5:38am Sep 4, 2015 5:38am
Quoting John.
Chawl, thanks for charts. They really differ from my broker. ============== EURJPY - it seems that the next week may give us good chances to go short? WK DZ is broken out. WK is down now and supply in control. If WK will close below this broken DZ we will have plenty of room down. {image} {image} {image}
I have the same analysis and I'll try to short EURJPY somewhere convenient next week but we are in a huge daily demand in control that you might have missed in your analysis, though it won't affect my shorting plan as half of it is already consumed through south. Hope Alfonso might comment on these.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily.png Size: 67 KB
Trade what you see..
  • #6,000
  • Sep 4, 2015 5:39am Sep 4, 2015 5:39am
Quoting John.
{quote} 40 running trades? Unbelievable You must be very aggressive trader! I work with 30+ currencies and trade H4 imbalances but I have about 4-5 trades per month (and that is a problem, most trades I want to take are against some of the rules and I do not take them). Can you show us some of your trades? Some wins and some losses. If we can see some of your trades we can analyse them and find something useful. We could ask ourselves "Could I find that trade and take it".
I've been doing this for quite some time, I just have a little bit more of experience than you, that's all, I'm not smarter or better than you or anybody else, there is only the variable of time, commitment and not giving up.

I don't show my trades over here now because I'm doing it in the community where they are planned ahead of time as the Brent and other potential trades in other posts. Trading H4 imbalances on 30+ currencies and just getting 4-5 trades per month is normal if you don't have the experience. The same thing happens to many in the community until they realise after testing for many months, what they have been missing. It's a long process, the more you trade the rules the more you trades you will see and the more nuances your brain will be able to distinguish.

Find attached one of the latest trades I took, it is an update of a planned trade as of this morning, it was a H4 short on AUD/CAD. A few took it as well, maybe you can now look into that currency and see the reasons why it was taken and give me some feedback if you don't understand why it was taken.

Cheers,
Alfonso

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