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Let's Trade Options

  • #10,521
  • Sep 3, 2015 9:18pm Sep 3, 2015 9:18pm
ok
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,522
  • Sep 3, 2015 9:25pm Sep 3, 2015 9:25pm
a 400 pip move down gets you to b/e in Dec, put spreads are a better bet
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,523
  • Sep 3, 2015 11:45pm Sep 3, 2015 11:45pm
wti heading back to sub $40, USO to $12.xx
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,524
  • Sep 4, 2015 12:06am Sep 4, 2015 12:06am
Quoting The Fool
wti heading back to sub $40, USO to $12.xx
somebody richer than me disagrees - see the combo? They paid $362.5k, and that risk slides hard below $13.60, but their b/e is @ $16.25 at Oct expiry, maxP above $2mio above $18.50.....(the bigger trade was mine - 20,000 Nov $12.50 puts)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,525
  • Sep 4, 2015 2:49pm Sep 4, 2015 2:49pm
nothing much new here, trying to fill some lt trades - Dec/Jan FXE $100/$99 puts diag - I'd give 6-7c & they want more. Trying to match the call side of the ASHR diagonal shown above - $49/$50, tough to fill for pennies. I wouldn't bother, but the margin is free, off the put side already in.

Glad I bailed on SPY bull put condors. I now have no SPY short put exposure of any immediate concern.

Long weekend coming up, I am set up pretty much short SPY and long VXX. Lots of VXX action I set up for Oct expiry - wisht I had dared Sept, but oh well, that Oct stuff is in good profit....I will wait/see what to do just b4 Sept FOMC.

Have a nice time away from the screens.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,526
  • Sep 4, 2015 5:42pm Sep 4, 2015 5:42pm
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_...5?locale=en-US

have any of you followed this issue? I think it only applies to broker-assisted options trades - nobody is proposing that you can't trade options from your IRA. Yet. If they do.....I will be quite perturbed.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,527
  • Sep 4, 2015 5:52pm Sep 4, 2015 5:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} idk, man. Coming into heavy hurricane season, Godzilla El Ninyo, you'd think we could see a spike...but the fundamentals are still there, there's a huge glut of natgas.... {image}
May add a position if it dips further toward 12.25 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,528
  • Sep 4, 2015 6:08pm Sep 4, 2015 6:08pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} May add a position if it dips further toward 12.25 ... .
yeah I saw that smackdown today, I tried to fill a Jan bull call vert, UNG $19/$20...for 3c! a $1 spread for 3c. omg. I must be kwazy. ......Butt.......if we get that monster polar vortex that freezes the whole eastern 1/2 of the continent for 2 weeks...sure we could get a $10 spike. Anyway....no fill. Be there next week.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,529
  • Sep 4, 2015 6:10pm Sep 4, 2015 6:10pm
Quoting The Fool
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_...5?locale=en-US have any of you followed this issue? I think it only applies to broker-assisted options trades - nobody is proposing that you can't trade options from your IRA. Yet. If they do.....I will be quite perturbed.
Shiyat. Wasn't aware that DOL had jurisdiction in this area, since IRA's are not connected with any type of employment ... . In any event, the proposal appears to be to change options brokers to the status of fiduciaries ... . Congress has made repeated attempts to upgrade certain categories financial advisors, brokers, etc. to fiduciary status such that they are required to act in the best interests of their investor/clients rather than in the self-serving manner they have operated in the past (e.g., pushing products from which the broker reaps greater commissions, but that aren't in the best interests of their clients). Congress has not had success with this in the past due to the financial industry's massive lobbying machine, and my guess is that this will go nowhere, since it is not in the best interests of brokerages to subject themselves to the additional liability fiduciary status would entail ... .

In any event, elevating brokers or similarly situated professionals on whom some people rely for "advice" to the position of fiduciary would only affect those who follow that advice in making trades ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,530
  • Sep 4, 2015 6:14pm Sep 4, 2015 6:14pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
In any event, elevating brokers or similarly situated professionals on whom some people rely for "advice" to the position of fiduciary would only affect those who follow that advice in making trades ... .
right, but one thing leads to another....or it can...anyway, doesn't really affect me in its present form. TT, though - wtf? - do they have fiduciary responsibility to the TDA clients because they are cranking out the TT vids? I can understand their objection. Not that I follow anyone there....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,531
  • Sep 4, 2015 7:52pm Sep 4, 2015 7:52pm
Looking at adding to my FXE position, which I have liked, hated, and am back to liking again; I don't like all the rungs on my ladder, but I'll just have to suck it up at this point.

When I used to trade spot forex, I was a big adherent to the examination of macroeconomic forces that move currencies; in the current cycle, this largely meant focusing on easing and tightening. In the case of the EUR/USD cross, the Euro is in a long-term cycle of easing which Mario Draghi and crew have just begun in the scheme of things, and the US is poised to tighten at some point in the near future. So, EURUSD, in the most general sense, is doomed to go down at some point ... . It has been widow-makering traders for several months, but that is only because the Greenback portion of the equation has been uncertain and, in a weird flavor of "risk on", there has been flight to -- of all things -- the Euro, whereas the Yen had been previously the refuge currency. Naturally, we could see more of this "risk on" behavior which pushes EURUSD and FXE higher for short periods of time (which are naturally opportunities to add short positions), but I still think 112.50 is generally good resistance:

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But here is an interesting article on the potential future for the Euro, which would literally involve EURUSD going back to "turn of the century" levels: http://dailypriceaction.com/daily-se...0-8225-instead Not all that far-fetched, really, considering that the run from the May 2014 high to the March 2015 low was 3500 pips ... . For me, 1.04 and below will do just fine ... .

However, I've read several articles today along the lines of "The Fed Will Raise in September," as well, as "Nuh-unh, No September Raise" given market uncertainties, with both camps pointing to today's NFPs, which undershot estimates of numbers hired, but overshot with the actual unemployment rate (which has been described as "at or near full employment").

It's not over until it's over, I guess. Happy Labor Day, kids!
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,532
  • Sep 4, 2015 8:03pm Sep 4, 2015 8:03pm
short fiber will pay well, I agree, just as soon as the Fed gets off the dime - Sept? October? December? after QE4?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,533
  • Edited 8:39pm Sep 4, 2015 8:19pm | Edited 8:39pm
I have been sitting on this VXX bfly exactly one month - VXX $21/25/29 calls - got in for 12c, it currently nets about $0.70, a perfect finish at $25 on Oct expiry day gets about $2.75. I did this same trade across 4 accounts, still wish I had done more.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,534
  • Sep 4, 2015 8:20pm Sep 4, 2015 8:20pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} right, but one thing leads to another....or it can...anyway, doesn't really affect me in its present form. TT, though - wtf? - do they have fiduciary responsibility to the TDA clients because they are cranking out the TT vids? I can understand their objection. Not that I follow anyone there....
I think it's kind of weird ... . TastyTrade is "new school" money management, which actually encourages people to make their own financial decisions, rather than relying on others to manage their money/advise them ... . Any new "fiduciary" rules are for "old school" folks who (for some reason beyond me) are unable to do their own due diligence and who actually believe that Joe Schmo stock broker/analyst/financial advisor knows what the hell they are talking about because "It's all too complex for me, I'm just a simple caveman ... ":

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Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,535
  • Sep 4, 2015 8:23pm Sep 4, 2015 8:23pm
Quoting The Fool
I have been sitting on this VXX bfly exactly one month - VXX $21/25/29 calls - got in for 12c, it currently nets about $0.70, a perfect finish at $25 on Oct expiry day gets about $1.95. I did this same trade across 4 accounts, still wish I had done more..... {image} {image}
Kicks self repeatedly for not doing that ... . Distracted by a shiny object on the ground in front of me ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,536
  • Sep 4, 2015 8:24pm Sep 4, 2015 8:24pm
Quoting The Fool
short fiber will pay well, I agree, just as soon as the Fed gets off the dime - Sept? October? December? after QE4?
It's beginning to resemble Grexit ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,537
  • Sep 4, 2015 8:35pm Sep 4, 2015 8:35pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Kicks self repeatedly for not doing that ... . Distracted by a shiny object on the ground in front of me ... .
There'll be more. Catch the spike or the mean reversion, just keep an eye on it. Nothing nicer than catching a huge spike w/ long calls, or a huge drop with long puts.....if you can get em cheap. Ask Cecil....if you're not well heeled then you can still get in good numbers with spreads, as shown....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,538
  • Sep 4, 2015 8:44pm Sep 4, 2015 8:44pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I think it's kind of weird ... . TastyTrade is "new school" money management, which actually encourages people to make their own financial decisions, rather than relying on others to manage their money/advise them ... . Any new "fiduciary" rules are for "old school" folks who (for some reason beyond me) are unable to do their own due diligence and who actually believe that Joe Schmo stock broker/analyst/financial advisor knows what the hell they are talking about because "It's all too complex for me, I'm just a simple caveman ...
lol...I miss that guy. TT is not the problem. I have thought about hanging out a shingle to do financial advising - no license required for it here - "I'm not selling anything" in red letters on the calling card. Just charge by the hour. But I'd have to bone up on all kinds of taxation details, hurts to think about it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,539
  • Sep 4, 2015 9:11pm Sep 4, 2015 9:11pm
What's in store for the VIX? One premise: the Fed whiffs on a Sept ffr hike and US equities rally til Dec. A cheap diagonal to trade this premise below....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,540
  • Sep 4, 2015 9:35pm Sep 4, 2015 9:35pm
Quoting The Fool
What's in store for the VIX? One premise: the Fed whiffs on a Sept ffr hike and US equities rally til Dec. A cheap diagonal to trade this premise below....
Orrrrr, Sept liftoff spikes the vix to the mid 30's or higher and it stays there for weeks, maybe watch for a pullback in the coming week and look for an upside spread........call spreads on pos correlated vix derivatives have the same advantages that put spreads do on straight equity options
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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