Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

SILVER (XAG) Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – July 01, 2015

Decline from wave X at 16.46 is unfolding in double correction (w)-(x)-(y) where wave (w) ended at 15.5, wave (x) ended at 16.05, and wave (y) is in progress towards 14.85 – 15.08. In our Chart of The Day 6.30.2015, we said the internal of wave (y) is also taking the form of a double corrective structure w-x-y where wave w is in progress towards 15.31 -15.45, then it should bounce in wave x before the decline resumes. Current Elliott Wave view suggests that wave w has ended at 15.46 and wave x has ended at 15.88. As far as 16.46 pivot stays intact, expect silver to continue the decline lower.



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USDCAD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – July 07, 2015

Rally from wave (X) low at 1.212 is unfolding in triple corrective structure WXYZ where wave W ended at 1.2423, wave X ended at 1.23, wave Y ended at 1.263, and second wave X ended at 1.2537. Wave Z is in progress and taking the form of a double corrective structure ((w))-((x))-((y)) where the pair is currently completing wave ((w)) and can reach as high as 1.268, then it should pullback in wave ((x)) before the rally resumes again. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback in wave ((x)). As far as 1.2122 pivot stays intact, more upside is expected in the pair.



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GBP/NZD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – July 10, 2015

Decline from 2.347 is taking the form of impulsive 5 waves where wave ((i)) ended at 2.314, wave ((ii)) ended at 2.33, wave ((iii)) ended at 2.27, wave ((iv)) ended at 2.295, and wave ((v)) is in progress towards 2.253 – 2.26 to complete wave A. From this area, the pair is expected to bounce in wave B to correct the decline from 2.347 before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the proposed wave B bounce. As far as 1.2347 pivot is intact during the bounce, we expect the pair to turn lower at least for 1 more leg.



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AUD/JPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – July 14, 2015

Decline to 89.15 completed wave (W). Pair has since bounced in wave (X) from this level, and the bounce is unfolding in a double corrective structure W-X-Y where wave W ended at 91.79, wave X ended at 90.46, and wave Y is in progress towards 93.12 – 93.75 area to complete wave (X).

The internal of wave Y is further subdivided in a double corrective structure ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) is expected to complete at 92.1 – 92.5, then it should pullback in wave ((x)) before resuming higher towards 93.12 – 93.75 to complete wave (X). We don’t like buying the proposed wave (X) bounce. Expect the pair to turn lower from 93.12 – 93.75 area in 3 waves at minimum per Elliott Wave hedging idea, with a chance to extend the move to below 89.14.



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AUD/JPY H4 chart Elliott Wave Analysis – July 16, 2015

Decline to 89.15 completed wave (W), and pair has since bounced in wave (X) from this level. Revised Elliott Wave view suggests the bounce is unfolding in a double corrective structure W-X-Y where wave W ended at 92.43, and wave X is in progress towards 90.4 – 90.78 before turning higher one more leg in wave Y towards 93.08 – 95.24 area to complete wave (X).

We don’t like buying the proposed wave (X) bounce. As far as 97.26 pivot remains intact during the bounce, we expect the pair to extend another leg lower from 93.08 – 95.24 area or at least pullback in 3 waves per Elliott Wave hedging idea.



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AUD/JPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – July 21, 2015

Decline to 89.14 completed wave (W), and pair has since bounced in wave (X) from this level. Short term Elliott Wave view suggests wave (X) bounce is unfolding in a double corrective structure W-X-Y where wave W ended at 92.43, wave X ended at 90.98, and wave Y is in progress towards 93.18 – 94.13 area to complete wave (X).
We don’t like buying the proposed wave (X) bounce. As far as 97.3 pivot remains intact during the bounce, we expect the pair to extend another leg lower from 93.18 – 94.13 area or at least pullback in 3 waves per Elliott Wave hedging idea.



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AUD/JPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – July 24, 2015

Decline to 89.19 completed wave (W), and pair has since bounced in wave (X) from this level. Short term Elliott Wave view suggests wave (X) bounce is unfolding in a double corrective structure W-X-Y where wave W ended at 92.43, and wave X is in progress towards 90.44 – 90.83. Once wave X is complete, the pair has a scope to turn one more leg higher in wave Y towards 92.9 – 93.88 to complete wave (X) bounce as far as 89.19 pivot stays intact. We don’t like buying the proposed wave Y bounce.
We expect the pair to extend another leg to a new low from 92.9 – 93.88 area once wave (X) bounce is complete or at least pullback in 3 waves per Elliott Wave hedging idea.



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CAD/JPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – July 28, 2015

Wave ((w)) decline from 97.16 is unfolding in a double three structure (w)-(x)-(y) where wave (w) ended at 95.35, wave (x) ended at 96.04, and wave (y) is in progress towards 93.84 – 94.26 to complete wave ((w)). From this area, the pair is expected to bounce in wave ((x)) before resuming lower again. We don’t like buying the proposed wave ((x)) bounce. We expect the pair to continue lower again once wave ((x)) bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as 97.16 pivot stays intact.



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CAD/JPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – August 06, 2015

Short term Elliott Wave view suggests wave ((w) decline from 96.16 is in progress and taking the form of a double three wxy where wave w ended at 94.09, wave x bounce is in progress and expected to complete at 94.94 – 95.37 as a FLAT, then it should turn lower one more leg in wave y towards 92.74 – 93.4 equal leg area to complete wave ((w)).

Alternatively, from 94.94 – 95.37 area, the pair can pullback 50% retracement to correct rally from 94.09 then go higher again in 7 swing to complete wave x bounce, but even in this alternate scenario, the bounce is still expected to fail below 96.16 for the next leg lower in wave ((w)) towards 92.74 – 93.4. From this area, the pair is expected to see a larger bounce in wave ((x)) before going lower again. We don’t like buying the proposed wave ((x)) bounce and expect the bounce to fail below 96.16 in 3, 7, or 11 swing.



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AUD/USD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – August 12, 2015

Rally to 0.7439 ended wave (X). Wave ((w)) decline from this level is unfolding in a zigzag structure where wave (a) ended at 0.73, wave (b) ended at 0.7356, and wave (c) of ((w)) is in progress as five waves and expected to complete with one more swing lower towards as low as 0.7186. The pair should then be expected to bounce in wave ((x)) to correct the decline from 0.7439 in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the next leg lower. We do not like buying the proposed wave ((x)) bounce. As far as 0.7439 pivot remains intact, expect the bounce to fail below 0.7439 for the next leg lower.



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AUD/USD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – August 14, 2015

Short term Elliottwave view suggests that decline to 0.723 ended wave (Y). Wave (X) bounce from this level is unfolding as a FLAT structure where wave A ended at 0.7439, wave B ended at 0.7214, and wave C of (X) is proposed complete at 0.7409. The pair is currently expected to resume decline to new low or at least pullback in 3 waves to correct the rally from 0.7214 towards 50 – 61.8% retracement at 0.728 – 0.731.

From 0.7409, the pair made the first leg of the decline to 0.732, ending wave a. The second leg wave b bounce is currently expected to complete at 0.7374 – 0.7387. As far as price stays below 0.7409 holds, the pair is expected to resume lower at least for another leg.



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USDJPY: Elliott Wave Expanded Flat Structure

Elliott Wave FLAT structure is the corrective pattern which is often seen in the real market.

There are 3 types of Flats:
– Regular flat.
– Expanded flat
– Running flat.

In this technical blog we’re going to run through Expanded flat example. Expanded Flat is a 3 wave corrective pattern which inner subdivision is always labeled as A,B,C and it has 3,3,5 structure. That means waves A and B are always corrective structures, while wave C is 5 wave impulsive or ending diagonal pattern.

At the graphic below, we can see what Expanded Flat structure looks like. Inner structure has ABC labeling, where wave B completes below the start point of wave A, and wave C should complete above the end point of wave A (usually at 1.236-1.618 fibonacci extension A related to B):



Now, let’s take a look at some real example:

$USDJPY July.2.2015 London Update. Wave ((w)) ended at 122.09 and current price action suggests the pair is now doing wave ((x)) recovery against the 124.387 high. Wave ((x)) recovery has taken form of Expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure. As you may notice, wave (b) of ((x)) Flat has ended below start point of wave (a) and wave (c) is quite extended, it’s appraoching 1.618 fibonacci extension of (a) related to (b) which is not marked on the chart but it lies close to the marked 76.4 fibonacci retracement ( 123.845). Current Elliott Wave analysis suggests wave ((x)) is about to complete as expanded flat structure at 123.509-123.845 area.



$USDJPY July.9.2015 Asia Update. A week later, as we can see, the pair did make nice decline as expected. Flat pattern ended below the 0.764 fib retracement (123.845) right at 1.618 fib extension A related to B. You can check that at your trading platform by using fibonacci expansion tool: wave C =wave A* 1.618.



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Oil (CL) Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – August 18, 2015

Rally to 49.5 ended wave 4. From this level, wave 5 of (3) decline is unfolding in 5 waves where wave ((i)) ended at 45.08 and wave ((ii)) ended at 46.71. Wave ((iii)) is in progress towards 40.4 – 40.89, then it should bounce in wave ((iv)) before another leg lower to complete wave 5 of (3). We don’t like buying the proposed wave ((iv)) bounce. Cycle is currently pretty stretched, but as far as wave ((ii)) pivot at 46.71 holds, expect oil to resume lower to finish wave 5 of (3).



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Oil (CL) Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – August 20, 2015

Rally to 49.5 ended wave 4. From this level, the internal of wave 5 of (3) lower is unfolding in 5 waves where wave ((i)) ended at 45.08, wave ((ii)) ended at 46.71, wave ((iii)) ended at 41.35, wave ((iv)) ended at 42.9, and wave ((v)) is in progress to complete wave (3) before a larger bounce in wave (4).

Near term, wave (a) is expected to complete at 39.62 – 40.27, then it should bounce in wave (b) before turning lower again towards 37.52 – 38.57 to complete wave (3). We don’t like buying the proposed bounce in wave (b). Cycle is currently pretty stretched and we can already count 5 waves lower from wave 4 high at 49.5 , but as far as wave ((iv)) pivot at 42.9 holds during wave (b) bounce, expect oil to resume lower one more swing to complete wave (3) towards 37.52 – 38.57.



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Oil (CL) Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – August 21, 2015

Rally to 49.5 ended wave 4. From this level, the internal of wave 5 of (3) lower is unfolding in 5 waves where wave ((i)) ended at 45.08, wave ((ii)) ended at 46.71, wave ((iii)) ended at 41.35, wave ((iv)) ended at 42.9, and wave ((v)) is in progress to complete wave (3) before a larger bounce in wave (4).

Near term, wave (a) has ended at 40.21, wave (b) ended at 41.47, and pair has resumed lower towards 37.52 – 38.57 to complete wave (3). Cycle is currently pretty stretched and we can already count 5 waves lower from wave 4 high at 49.5, but as far as wave ((iv)) pivot at 42.9 is intact, expect oil to resume lower one more swing to complete wave (3) towards 37.52 – 38.57 before a larger pullback in wave (4) is seen.



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Oil (CL) Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – August 27, 2015

Rally to 49.5 ended wave 4. From this level, the internal of wave 5 of (3) lower is unfolding in 5 waves where wave ((i)) ended at 45.08, wave ((ii)) ended at 46.71, wave ((iii)) ended at 37.75, wave ((iv)) is proposed complete at 39.89 and oil has resumed lower in wave ((v)) of (3) towards 36.22 – 37.49 before a larger bounce in wave (4) takes place. Cycle is currently pretty stretched, but as far as wave ((ii)) pivot at 46.64 is intact, expect oil to resume lower to complete wave (3).



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Nifty Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – August 31, 2015

Decline from wave ((X)) at 8653.13 ended at 7667 as wave (W). From this level, wave (X) bounce is in progress as a double corrective structure WXY. Wave W ended at 8091.8, and wave X pullback is in progress towards 7869.8 – 7901.75, then it should turn one more leg higher in wave Y towards 8160.3 – 8421.45 to complete wave (X). We don’t like buying the proposed bounce in wave (X). As far as 8655.36 pivot stays intact, expect wave (X) bounce to fail below this level and the index to resume the decline to new low.



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Nifty Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – September 02, 2015

Decline from wave ((X)) at 8653.13 ended at 7667 as wave (W). From this level, wave (X) bounce unfolded as a double corrective structure WXY, where wave W ended at 7907.4, wave X ended at 7777.1, and wave Y of (X) ended at 8092.66. The index has since resumed lower, and short term, wave ((w)) is expected to complete at 7662.68 – 7713.8, then it should bounce in wave ((x)) before lower again. We don’t like buying the proposed bounce in wave ((x)). As far as 8092.66 pivot stays intact, expect wave ((x)) bounce to fail below this level and the index to resume the decline to new low.



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Copper Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – September 10, 2015

Rally from wave (W) low at 2.209 is unfolding in double corrective structure WXY where wave W ended at 2.418, wave X ended at 2.3053, and wave Y of (X) is in progress towards 2.516 – 2.64 area before turning lower at least in 3 waves. Short term, wave ((w)) is proposed complete at 2.4755, and pair is in wave ((x)) pullback towards 2.4 – 2.412 before higher again. We don’t like selling the proposed wave ((x)) pullback. As far as 2.305 pivot stays intact during wave ((x)) pullback, expect copper to continue higher again towards 2.516 – 2.64 area.



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$EURJPY: Elliott Waves Forecasting the decline and selling the rally

Another instrument which has given us nice trading opportunity is EURJPY. As we forecasted,the pair reached important technical area at 139.849-139.924 that was marked as Red Box on EWF charts (Red Box presents sell recommendation).

Now, let’s take a quick look at H4 charts from 8.9.2015.

$EURJPY H4 Weekend Update 8.9.2015 The chart suggests the pair is looking for more strength in wave ((y)) of Y toward equal legs-1.236 fibonacci extension area, which comes at 139.849-139.924 (marked as Red box). View is bearish against the 141.103 high and we advise our clients to sell the pair at above mentioned area if the price reaches it.



$EURJPY H4 8.12.2015 Red box area has been reached. Corrective structure is ready to complete and we are expecting to see the decline in wave (Y) soon.



$EURJPY H4 Update 8.24.2015 Wave (X) recovery is done at 138.868 and we got nice separation from that high. More downside is expected toward new lows below the 133.444 low. Short positions are already risk free and we like staying short.



$EURJPY H4 Update 9.8.2015 The price broke below the 133.444 low as expected. Important technical area has been reached and the pair is now doing bounce. Note: Some labels have been removed to protect clients privileges.



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