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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #52,921
  • Edited 4:07am Sep 2, 2015 2:24am | Edited 4:07am
Quoting rt15
Re : Global Economy Today all stock market US Europe China go down hard Is that CIA guy right ? What a nightmare :-((( Cmon stop nosediving.... bounce back please This is scary times we live in Global Meltdown ? @Jac I don't know what to do if it collapses, we are all in trouble, no jobs, no food (buy real gold ?) If it doesn't collapse, ..... please do not collapse (hope strategy, abandon all hope ?) @cakra have a great party while you can :-) Re : Trading @fti For trading strategy, fti is right don't listen to anybody just listen to the market...
Rule 1. DON'T PANIC.....

If market going down go with it.... if it going up go with it...... like it add some more.... hate it take scout out and get in better .......... like it but too early add some more for better average price of all trades in the dance..... let it teach you and you will learn more as you go. FTI has not given us a trading strategy........ but even better AOW..... answer is in you now.

Start with your trend in m5 what was last wave like what is price doing now(look at m15/h1/d1 too).........build from there a bit at a time. Look for where strength lies......if it is sideways then you would not rush in full attack would you and if it is trending nice you can attack it.

If you are having trouble do it and post your trade here... and we can comment as best we can.

Rules are made up by market as he(she) goes along.... we just try to dance along.

You still think there is a holy grail...........this takes time but is worth it so stop fighting and get in. Been there... know how you feel. Stop worrying about what you cannot change... every day we can breathe is a gift.

Here is what I did ..... I think.... danced short with my eurusd man first today.... nervy (see D1/h1) but followed cautiously. Bit half asleep in brain ...up pre London open.. looked at last m5 wave down (looked at m15/h1/d1 also) and watched slower PB (looked at strength of candles in wave down and then weaker PB) ...got scout out (price was going long but in my selling zone potentially (see last candle in prior uprun before price built waves short again) and weakening/turning (by feel)) then got in at perfect time after scout in...... nervy so smaller attack and before London open. GPB already short (GBP news up in a bit so careful) so felt they would want their money back from eur so RoK looking good for me (EG turned also).... went my way so good for me.... did not overstay (lots of reasons & buyer zone ahead/news etc and reaction to zone strong) did I do it right ... how do I know... just did it my way trying to follow my man...I am really not that good either (getting better tho) but trying to let go and flow with it more and more... trying to let go of rigidity/predictions... my attack is bit weak but working on it and I am not currently my normal self so......think that is everything I was thinking about at time....oh and time of day important... and duck zones

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,922
  • Sep 2, 2015 2:48am Sep 2, 2015 2:48am
Quoting rt15
Re : Global Economy Today all stock market US Europe China go down hard Is that CIA guy right ? What a nightmare :-((( Cmon stop nosediving.... bounce back please This is scary times we live in Global Meltdown ? @Jac I don't know what to do if it collapses, we are all in trouble, no jobs, no food (buy real gold ?) If it doesn't collapse, ..... please do not collapse (hope strategy, abandon all hope ?) @cakra have a great party while you can :-) Re : Trading @fti For trading strategy, fti is right don't listen to anybody just listen to the market...


Hi rt15

Try practicing each thing in the thread separately at first or it may all be a bit overwhelming, for example practice rescue skill, then play with MM until you get comfortable with it, it will take a while for you to learn this stuff, learn to watch price over time and its movements not price over a man-made set (rigid) unit of time, for me the mainstream t/a is the weapon of the enemy, learn to think and use their weapons against them, one way is to look at failed set ups as opposed to the set ups they say will make you pips, train your mind to think differently (for yourself), try to think where the stops orders may be sitting as price moves, see how they use these weapons against you and how these may be used to your advantage, think with the view of a market maker, we (retail) have 5 digit charts and the pro’s use 4 digits, think what games they can play with that extra digit.

The dance…. if the market does not do what you expect it to do fairly quickly re-assess your position and thinking on an ongoing basis, constantly adjust your trading and thinking to what is happening now, you may have entered on a market/price turn, it happens it is part of trading, we do not know what the price will do until it is doing it, think on every entry ‘am I following or predicting?’ there is no right or wrong so be prepared to be right or wrong this will help you move onto your next trade without any baggage, collect pips not money, the money will follow with the pips, have the mind-set that your account must only go one way but do not force it to go that way, flow with what you are doing concentrating on minimising/eliminating losses then only profits can follow, embed the WW table of losses into your mind, understand how critical it is not to tolerate losses, in essence ‘put yourself beyond defeat’ as AOW states, then you cannot lose for you are standing on a solid foundation on which to build/trade your account, trade your account not the individual pairs, people want to win ‘that’ trade when all that matters is growing your account, is that not what we are doing this for?

Every situation every day every hour every minute is different in this market, there is no way of showing you to ‘do this here or there’ in the charts, also your financial and emotional tolerances will be way different to anybody else’s so there is no way to be given a blueprint trading plan, learn how the market moves, it is all there in the thread, then formulate strategies to help you take advantage of that movement always adjusting to the now risks.

Try looking at other peoples journal’s for ideas but not try to carbon copy, some journals are quite old and I am sure that most are trading in a slightly different way now with the extra experience they have gained since then, so it is just a snapshot of what they were thinking/doing at that point in time but you may see some interesting ideas to help build some of your own personal strategies on, my own basic personal strategies are built around risk, the market structure, impulses and momentum, all stuff I learnt about since reading this thread.

I know we all say this but do re-read the thread (first 200 pages) many times you will see more every time you do this, our brains only take in some not all of what we see at any one time, I also suggest that you look into this and how we work to identify our shortcomings in processing things, how we are very easily tricked by the world around us and our own personal perception of it.

I know this is not what you wanted/asked for but I hope it helps in some way.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,923
  • Sep 2, 2015 4:33am Sep 2, 2015 4:33am
Thank you alexandria for write a complete guide, I am practicing this method.
  • #52,924
  • Sep 2, 2015 5:17am Sep 2, 2015 5:17am
Quoting ak.azad
Thank you alexandria for write a complete guide, I am practicing this method.
Huh... I have no guide... hope you are kidding.... today been everywhere a bit.........just tried to give examples of what I was thinking about at that time.....but I do not do it like that even not in a rigid way (trying to stop that bad habit).... I went long after that so the market moves.........anyway maybe nobody would agree with me... especially FTI.... just my thoughts and as I said my attacking could be better and I need to learn the other pairs better... although happy with that short today re conditions.

Oh here are some guides for you :

42! The Answer to Life the Universe and Everything (thanks to Mr D Adams)
FTI's thread


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,925
  • Sep 2, 2015 11:09am Sep 2, 2015 11:09am
Quoting rt15
Re : Global Economy Today all stock market US Europe China go down hard Is that CIA guy right ? What a nightmare :-((( Cmon stop nosediving.... bounce back please This is scary times we live in Global Meltdown ? @Jac I don't know what to do if it collapses, we are all in trouble, no jobs, no food (buy real gold ?) If it doesn't collapse, ..... please do not collapse (hope strategy, abandon all hope ?) @cakra have a great party while you can :-) Re : Trading @fti For trading strategy, fti is right don't listen to anybody just listen to the market...
so, you dont know what do if it collapses or not collapses.

and you want to trade the market?
and you want to learn AOW?

yes you are too rigid, yes you cant dance. because you are not thinking.

think again. what will you do? if dont know, then you dont deserved to be answered at all. you can go buy my system for 200k, then i will tell you all the rules and signals and anwsers.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,926
  • Sep 2, 2015 2:06pm Sep 2, 2015 2:06pm
Hello Soldiers,

I wanted to tell you .. certain brokers have the ask line constantly widening and coming near the bid line. (visualise a whale opening its jaw :-). Also mine always picks up a higher buy rate when placing a market buy order and lower rate when i put a market sell order. In general Buying is costlier (picks up higher price) than selling.

So when closing a order if you have a buy and a sell, i found out using close by (in metatrader) working better for me than simply closing the order. This works for me because I am not loosing the spread difference in one of the orders because i am offsetting a buy with a sell.

hope this is useful for someone.

cheers.
  • #52,927
  • Sep 2, 2015 6:51pm Sep 2, 2015 6:51pm
Thx Alex, Phil
I will reread the thread to p200 (still on p99)
and practice, practice, practice
Dance naked (will wear only trendlines for a while until I don't need it anymore)

@Jac
The answer is
if collapse then trade
if not collapse then trade

200k ? I will give it to fti if he will hold my hand and mentor me :-)
  • #52,928
  • Sep 3, 2015 2:23am Sep 3, 2015 2:23am
Quoting fti
Apologies -no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets. -"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose" Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt. Since the late 70s and into the millinium. Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few, The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow...
I just don't understand why you wrong this length
  • #52,929
  • Edited 3:22am Sep 3, 2015 2:31am | Edited 3:22am
Quoting rt15
Thx Alex, Phil I will reread the thread to p200 (still on p99) and practice, practice, practice Dance naked (will wear only trendlines for a while until I don't need it anymore) @Jac The answer is if collapse then trade if not collapse then trade 200k ? I will give it to fti if he will hold my hand and mentor me :-)

FTI has given us this thread.... what more do you want/need?


Not being harsh on you.... giving you kick up the bum ....... believe you me I have been where you are and so has everyone else.... it takes effort and hard work to start to break through and things come to you bit by bit when you are ready... I still read thread so much in it.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,930
  • Edited 3:13am Sep 3, 2015 2:41am | Edited 3:13am
Quoting francmorio
{quote} I just don't understand why you wrong this length

Hi francmorio

because what is presented here works.

AND fti is a very nice and generous person.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,931
  • Sep 3, 2015 5:09am Sep 3, 2015 5:09am
Quoting rt15
Thx Alex, Phil I will reread the thread to p200 (still on p99) and practice, practice, practice Dance naked (will wear only trendlines for a while until I don't need it anymore) @Jac The answer is if collapse then trade if not collapse then trade 200k ? I will give it to fti if he will hold my hand and mentor me :-)

So if you had been trading eur today after London open what would you have thought............do you go swimming in choppy sea or not (some do but with expertise/caution)... what was flow like...........what news is around? How do related pairs look? What if you are wrong... what can you do about it?....... lots to think about but must do so in non rigid way and let it flow..... I think we are really trying to teach our subconscious to get the feel and do the right thing. If you watched euro this morning could you feel the strong pushes in both directions?Where are ducks (breakout traders/stops etc etc)... do you want easy life or hard?..... etc etc
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,932
  • Sep 3, 2015 9:11am Sep 3, 2015 9:11am
Quoting rt15
Thx Alex, Phil I will reread the thread to p200 (still on p99) and practice, practice, practice Dance naked (will wear only trendlines for a while until I don't need it anymore) @Jac The answer is if collapse then trade if not collapse then trade 200k ? I will give it to fti if he will hold my hand and mentor me :-)
good answer. you want detailed instructions to know how to dance.

i ask you, how did you learn to walk?
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,933
  • Sep 3, 2015 10:10am Sep 3, 2015 10:10am
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/tec...0311efa1168f53

is a warning.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Inserted Video
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,934
  • Sep 6, 2015 4:41pm Sep 6, 2015 4:41pm
@Alex
True. Thx FTI for the thread.
The idea is there but it's not easy to practice your method, especially for newbie who can't dance naked

@Jac
When I learnt to walk, nobody gave me detailed instructions
I just stood up, fell, stood up again and learnt walking
repeatedly until I could walk without falling

Ok I read the thread to 200 and practice practice again
glad still on paper money, I blew so many accounts :-)

rt15
  • #52,935
  • Sep 7, 2015 2:35am Sep 7, 2015 2:35am
Quoting rt15
@Alex True. Thx FTI for the thread. The idea is there but it's not easy to practice your method, especially for newbie who can't dance naked @Jac When I learnt to walk, nobody gave me detailed instructions I just stood up, fell, stood up again and learnt walking repeatedly until I could walk without falling Ok I read the thread to 200 and practice practice again glad still on paper money, I blew so many accounts :-) rt15
Duh - method?????

Here is my advice:

  1. slow down... no need to panic... take it easy ... just relax... etc etc
  2. you are on demo so blow accounts here and not in live where you want to build foreign cap buffer to play
  3. go naked... what you got to lose.... jump in (TBH I like to have h1/h4 averages around on m5 in background)
  4. stop trying to be right and rigid and just flow..... stop with fear and hope...... no predictions just manage it
  5. pick one pair only at first to get to know very well like your girlfriend.......how is the water....... is it choppy or nice strong waves...look at waves which is stronger the push or pull(how can you work it out) ...... if seems nice get in.... if it is going against you maybe think rescue (remember when you have lots of trades in play where is the average price of all your trades.... if you are going long where do you ideally want your average to be.... if you need to rescue where is your average and what would you want to do to it?.......... if you are against trend impulse oops what now (look at m15/h1/d1).........then when you happy doing this stuff you can build on it.... is there any news to hit you....... what are other pairs/kingdoms doing)
  6. think of games being played on your mind.... sitting ducks.... candles etc etc


Just try it with no panic and let it teach you.... post charts here if you want comments........ do not just read... you must do it

I think you should find Truth of The Stock Tape by Gann and read it.... could help you on greed and fear stuff and other things... easy read.

Alex

check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,936
  • Sep 7, 2015 8:24am Sep 7, 2015 8:24am
Quoting rt15
@Alex True. Thx FTI for the thread. The idea is there but it's not easy to practice your method, especially for newbie who can't dance naked @Jac When I learnt to walk, nobody gave me detailed instructions I just stood up, fell, stood up again and learnt walking repeatedly until I could walk without falling Ok I read the thread to 200 and practice practice again glad still on paper money, I blew so many accounts :-) rt15
likely you would have general guidance from your parents. nowwhere was there detailed instructions. along the way, you would have grasp easily by yourself the general principles of walking, what to avoid, when to speed up,, when to slow down. if you didnt, you would not have managed to survive so far.

detailed instructions could only allow you to handle that few scenarios. guiding principles gives u a framework to deal with million of scenarios.

there is a a set of guiding principles here in this thread and there are the experience of the people who tried to learn it. good luck.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,937
  • Sep 7, 2015 8:40am Sep 7, 2015 8:40am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Duh - method????? Here is my advice: slow down... no need to panic... take it easy ... just relax... etc etc you are on demo so blow accounts here and not in live where you want to build foreign cap buffer to play go naked... what you got to lose.... jump in (TBH I like to have h1/h4 averages around on m5 in background) stop trying to be right and rigid and just flow..... stop with fear and hope...... no predictions just manage it pick one pair only at first to get to know very well like your girlfriend.......how is the water....... is it...
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #52,938
  • Sep 7, 2015 8:00pm Sep 7, 2015 8:00pm
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Rule 1. DON'T PANIC..... If market going down go with it.... if it going up go with it...... like it add some more.... hate it take scout out and get in better .......... like it but too early add some more for better average price of all trades in the dance..... let it teach you and you will learn more as you go. FTI has not given us a trading strategy........ but even better AOW..... answer is in you now. Start with your trend in m5 what was last wave like what is price doing now(look at m15/h1/d1 too).........build from there a bit at...

Refresher.

3 cardinal rules for trading.

rule 1. Preservation of capital.
rule 2. Preservation of CAPITAL.
rule 3. DO NOT forget rule 1

regards
  • #52,939
  • Sep 8, 2015 1:51am Sep 8, 2015 1:51am
dear alexandria/phil13,

i am posting my yesterday EU dance for your kind opinion. The volatility was little low so I could not rescue and slept with a +2 long positions on loss. EU always tends to go near previous (or day before) day's close and also support wall was building up. so I was bullish for the next day. When I woke up today, I was in profit and added another +1 long position and closed everything positive.


blue lines are buys
red lines are sells
the trade lines are little different because i use closeby

please advise.
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  • #52,940
  • Sep 8, 2015 2:21am Sep 8, 2015 2:21am
Quoting fti
{quote} Refresher. 3 cardinal rules for trading. rule 1. Preservation of capital. rule 2. Preservation of CAPITAL. rule 3. DO NOT forget rule 1 regards

Thank you ...... always my golden rule.... I do not know what I am doing in a rigid way and not sure if I can/should help anyone at this time........but it is hard to learn... maybe that is for a good reason (the moth). When I look back at what I did on a trade it seems I thought of lots of things but I did not do it like that so hard to explain... I have no tick box/checklist... and I have many struggles mostly with me.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
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