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  • #10,461
  • Aug 31, 2015 4:03pm Aug 31, 2015 4:03pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'd say that is true of lots of options traders who are mostly selling premium. Some of them are making boatloads of money, so I can't argue - whatever works, right? You can't escape the fact that the market is moving, though, so why not pay attention to that and try to be on the right side of the market? I'd confess that, generally, I am trading with a market bias, but I am usually hedging against that bias - i.e., I am trading on both the long and short ends. That's why you see me regularly putting on double diagonals, double calendars,...
Exactly. Bottomline is all that counts in this business. Yes, I have seen you use different strategies - all Greek to me at the moment! Thanks for sharing your thoughts, TF.
  • #10,462
  • Aug 31, 2015 5:47pm Aug 31, 2015 5:47pm
Quoting NakedTraderX
{quote} Thanks, TF. That's good to know. The guys at TastyTrade.com don't seem to look at charts at all. That made me wonder if it is a waste of time. Moreover, TT suggests simplicity leads better decision making. So, I am trying to work out what would work best for me. Long way to go.
To me, ya gotta look at the charts to at least some idea of what's going on. Just as an example, for the longest time SPY traded in a narrow range between 204 and 214. I repeatedly used that high end as a guide for short call verticals; how could ya not? The only way you'll get those levels is to gander at a chart and have some general levels in the back of your mind when you set up your options trades. Naturally, the SPY picture is a little fuzzier now that 204 has broken ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,463
  • Aug 31, 2015 5:48pm Aug 31, 2015 5:48pm
Quoting StrayDog
Hi everybody. I hope you made some nice $ in these last 2 weeks, this is what we were waiting for. Well... once in a few years we have this kind of movement. It happened RIGHT on the day of my vacation trip, a holiday that I booked in March. So, I missed the party - I don't trade on holidays. A begging of the party, IMO, since the thing could be more messy. Like this: Goldman takes a knife to China GDP forecasts So, I arrived in Greece, SPX took a nosedive,...
Welcome back ... . Sorry you missed the fireworks, but I imagine there's plenty to come ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,464
  • Aug 31, 2015 5:55pm Aug 31, 2015 5:55pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I'm going to be a big, giant, weenie chicken, and go with a UNG trade that I think has a high probability of working out at or before expiration (in spite of the stated POP %-age): Jan 15 expiration, UNG 12/13 long call vert for a .52 debit (POP%: 49%; BE at 12.52). Basically risking one to make one ... .
Filled at open, after which price dropped off a bit ... . I imagine I'll take it off at 50% max profit; mid-Jan is an awfully long time for this fella to wait for his candy ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,465
  • Aug 31, 2015 5:56pm Aug 31, 2015 5:56pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Naturally, the SPY picture is a little fuzzier now that 204 has broken ... .
ah, yes, the old channel....I miss it in some ways even though the iv was dead.....well, that was then, this is now....I think risk is to the downside now, I doubt if $208 is doable in the next month, but the lower limit is....where?.....$175 or so? anyway, iv is here now, need to make hay while the sun shines....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,466
  • Aug 31, 2015 6:17pm Aug 31, 2015 6:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ah, yes, the old channel....I miss it in some ways even though the iv was dead.....well, that was then, this is now....I think risk is to the downside now, I doubt if $208 is doable in the next month, but the lower limit is....where?.....$175 or so? anyway, iv is here now, need to make hay while the sun shines....
For a while there, I thought we'd see a last gasp run to 204, a test and a retreat ... . Although it's a little too early to tell, that 199 may be end up being the lower high (possibly an impulsive overshoot of the .50 Fib from the Oct 2014 low to the 2015 high, which it has rapidly given up). Shorter term, I'm looking at 182 as bottom, followed by 174 ... .

174's fairly coincident with some Fibbage run from the 8/2011 low to the 2015 high/tested & rejected in Nov. 2013 & Feb. 2014 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,467
  • Aug 31, 2015 6:27pm Aug 31, 2015 6:27pm
yeah, vertically challenged - but my sneaking fear is the Fed whiffs on the Sept ffr hike and then the bulls see a green light for another run to the highs before the December FOMC.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,468
  • Aug 31, 2015 6:31pm Aug 31, 2015 6:31pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} For a while there, I thought we'd see a last gasp run to 204, a test and a retreat ... . Although it's a little too early to tell, that 199 may be end up being the lower high (possibly an impulsive overshoot of the .50 Fib from the Oct 2014 low to the 2015 high, which it has rapidly given up). Shorter term, I'm looking at 182 as bottom, followed by 174 ... . 174's fairly coincident with some Fibbage run from the 8/2011 low to the 2015 high/tested & rejected in Nov. 2013 & Feb. 2014 ... .
Right now, a 208/211 short call vert, Oct expiration goes for a .53 credit ... . That's right at the edge of the expected movement (the 1 SD's at 217 and naturally won't get you squat ... ). I could see going more aggressive on the assumption that we won't see 204 again soon, but don't want to get burned with some BS market enthusiasm pumped out of ____'s (fill in the blank with your favorite bull market pumper's) ass or Janet and company's kicking the can to December or later ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,469
  • Aug 31, 2015 6:35pm Aug 31, 2015 6:35pm
as noted b4, while iv looks to be rising I am shooting diagonals. In fact, I don't have a lot of free margin and am already well set up for a move down into the $180's or lower. I just need to make a decision on the $191/$188 Sept bull puts......I had hoped for a little vacillation time.........maybe the oil pop will encourage the bulls tomorrow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,470
  • Aug 31, 2015 6:36pm Aug 31, 2015 6:36pm
Quoting The Fool
yeah, vertically challenged - but my sneaking fear is the Fed whiffs on the Sept ffr hike and then the bulls see a green light for another run to the highs before the December FOMC.....
Exactly ... . Kind of hard right now since we've had all this whipping about since the break of 204 ... . I don't think it's sorted itself out entirely yet ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,471
  • Aug 31, 2015 6:40pm Aug 31, 2015 6:40pm
Quoting The Fool
as noted b4, while iv looks to be rising I am shooting diagonals. In fact, I don't have a lot of free margin and am already well set up for a move down into the $180's or lower. I just need to make a decision on the $191/$188 Sept bull puts......I had hoped for a little vacillation time.........maybe the oil pop will encourage the bulls tomorrow.
You might be right on the oil ... . It's going to buoy the energy/petro sectors, which have been mercilessly hammered ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,472
  • Aug 31, 2015 6:42pm Aug 31, 2015 6:42pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} You might be right on the oil ... . It's going to buoy the energy/petro sectors, which have been mercilessly hammered ... .
XLE and XOP have both seen some nices bounces over the last few sessions ... . Hopefully, there'll be some continuation ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,473
  • Aug 31, 2015 7:37pm Aug 31, 2015 7:37pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} To me, ya gotta look at the charts to at least some idea of what's going on. Just as an example, for the longest time SPY traded in a narrow range between 204 and 214. I repeatedly used that high end as a guide for short call verticals; how could ya not? The only way you'll get those levels is to gander at a chart and have some general levels in the back of your mind when you set up your options trades. Naturally, the SPY picture is a little fuzzier now that 204 has broken ... .
That makes sense, Zebra. Thanks.
  • #10,474
  • Aug 31, 2015 10:39pm Aug 31, 2015 10:39pm
Again with the China ... . SPY futures tanking on weak PROC data ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,475
  • Aug 31, 2015 11:46pm Aug 31, 2015 11:46pm
yep, below is the current P/L for Sept $191/188 puts.......coulda got out for a 10c net loss today...thought about it......../ES now down 30, it'll be a much bigger loss tomorrow.....currently showing the expiry b/e at $192.20 or so......if SPY gonna drop 3 bucks a day of course that'll be breached this week. Where's Dudley?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-31_spy.png Size: 36 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,476
  • Sep 1, 2015 12:45am Sep 1, 2015 12:45am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Again with the China ... . SPY futures tanking on weak PROC data ... .
/ES getting whacked overnight, was down 35 a bit ago, and /ZB also off - markets are looking to price in that Sept ffr hike that probably will not happen - I am selling what I can above SPY $204 tomorrow, maybe $204/$207 calls - shoulda done that today, but was kind of out of it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,477
  • Sep 1, 2015 4:13am Sep 1, 2015 4:13am
Quoting NakedTraderX
{quote} Exactly. Bottomline is all that counts in this business. Yes, I have seen you use different strategies - all Greek to me at the moment! Thanks for sharing your thoughts, TF.
Welcome to the thread, N.T. .

By all means USE TECHNICAL ANALYSES. The simpler, the better, i.e. horizontal SR levels, trend lines, channels, fibonacci retracements... you know, old school.
At the end - it all comes to supply and demand, IMHO.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,478
  • Sep 1, 2015 4:17am Sep 1, 2015 4:17am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Welcome back ... . Sorry you missed the fireworks, but I imagine there's plenty to come ... .
Thanks my friend... Already managed to make some $ yesterday, with not so good entries short on NQ and DAX, but I was patient to hold them. Banked NQ yesterday (look at it now, right) and DAX today, expecting bad China news but didn't want to risk it with 2 short positions.

Looking forward for NY session.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,479
  • Edited 4:38am Sep 1, 2015 4:26am | Edited 4:38am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Welcome to the thread, N.T. . By all means USE TECHNICAL ANALYSES. The simpler, the better, i.e. horizontal SR levels, trend lines, channels, fibonacci retracements... you know, old school. At the end - it all comes to supply and demand, IMHO.
Thanks for your advice, SD. I subscribe to the SD school of thought. I've stripped my charts of all indicators - too much info for me. Looking forward to learning about options now.
  • #10,480
  • Sep 1, 2015 10:15am Sep 1, 2015 10:15am
Set up my weekly mechanical index trade a little bit less than 45 DTE this time around in IWM. Some of the weeklies for DIA, QQQ, and SPY tend not to be ideal for 1 SD IC's, particularly to the put side (some of the Oct 9th expiry setups are unworkable). I don't know if it's denial or just lack of interest in those at the moment ... .

I've also been working TLT somewhat mechanically, since the IVR is comparatively high. Looking for a fill in TLT, Oct Monthly expiry, 111/114/128/131 IC for a .64 credit, as part of that.

With only about 25% left in dry powder, probs just going to manage what I got on now for a coupla weeks ... . Would like to get some of that index stuff off I put on in a comparatively low vol environment (heck SPY at IVR 35 was great compared to what we've had to deal with the past few months), but just going to have to hand-sit for a bit ... . Can't imagine I'm not going to have to roll something toward expiration of the September monthly ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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