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The Market's Illusions & The Human Brain

  • #81
  • Mar 22, 2015 10:31pm Mar 22, 2015 10:31pm
Christ this thread has been all over the shop....It's hard to restrict such a topic when we are talking about trading and the brain. I hope this was your original intent Sis? :-)

C
  • #82
  • Jul 14, 2015 1:09pm Jul 14, 2015 1:09pm
Interesting thread guys.

I used this as a tool to adapt my trading mostly after reading a paper on how we look at things we can't control and in order for our mind to adapt to the frustration we create ease by falling into the trap of illusory pattern recognition. IE a computer random number generator as it plots price action over time... the map could look just like a real graph of price action but we could look at it and still see patterns and still trade it like real chart because that is how we would feel most comfortable adapting to the situation.

I think the next step might be to dive into the depth of what your seeing ... but that's really just a deeper frustration that may not decode the movement. IE... this is a random generator but I can trade it by understanding how the programming randomly generates the numbers... no computer can be random... the price is created through math and if that tendency leans to one side more than the other that will give me an edge.....which is the idea I believe brings us to random walk? or trying to understand market structure...

.... but what I think creates a successful trader ... is a trader who realizes that price has demand-supply duality with randomness... the same way light has particle-wave duality with heisenberg uncertainty principle....

So i think that we should predict the moment when price is at a point of true demand or a true point of supply and trade that fraction of a moment and then let fat tailed randomness wobble its way to success if you catch my drift... because outside of few minutes life is chaos.
  • #83
  • Jul 16, 2015 4:30am Jul 16, 2015 4:30am
Quoting domino
.... So i think that we should predict the moment when price is at a point of true demand or a true point of supply and trade that fraction of a moment and then let fat tailed randomness wobble its way to success if you catch my drift... because outside of few minutes life is chaos.
That's the idea (:
However, no need to predict ...
  • #84
  • Aug 28, 2015 2:57am Aug 28, 2015 2:57am
Quoting Fudomyo
{quote} Actually, all the hammers in your example work, it's just that most people don't know how to read them properly so they don't know what the hammers are telling them. Steve Nison and other book salesmen have reduced candlestick reading to junk science by oversimplifying candles as one kind of signal versus a tool to read weakness and strength. Here's an example from the current EU 5M chart. This hammer is telling me that the bears couldn't push price back down to the close of the doji center that proceeded it, and weakness of short sellers...
sorry fudo, but this is not an (inverted) hammer by definition of nison

price was trading sideways in your example, the inverted hammer (or shooting star) doesn't form inside of a range, but at the end of an advance.

the pattern is more expressive when there is a close below to low or at least a stall on the next candle, plus there should be a gap away from the previous candle.

actually the 9th candle in that picture is an example for a good hammer, there is a gap between the previous candle close and the hammer open and the following bar went straight up
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #85
  • Aug 28, 2015 3:12am Aug 28, 2015 3:12am
Quoting Sis.yphus
You see, the market is always bullish & always bearish. it is all relative to the shadow you are seeing.
The market is not always bullish / bearish. The market is just a market. Bulls and Bears are people with different opinions and perceptions. There is no inherent order to the market.
Quote
"Illusions are so powerful that our brains can be fooled by them, even when we know how they work."
Markets are nothing more than an aggregation of millions of buy and sell orders. Good traders use illusions and metaphors that are conducive to successful trading.
  • #86
  • Aug 28, 2015 5:56am Aug 28, 2015 5:56am
Quoting Sis.yphus
This thread is going to be an ongoing gathering of information in regards to perception & the human brain and how this affects our decisions in the market. The first post is going to be short & sweet with 2 videos but there is a wealth of information to be learned from it. Is The Market Long or Short? Is price Bullish or Bearish, & is there even a difference? As you watch this video image you are looking at a chart and trying to determine if it is up and down. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGG01xTYSoo "Illusions are so powerful that...
Those videos are very interesting. We are wired to intrepret reality in certain ways, mostly in terms of finding food in the wild, avoiding dangerous animals and hwo to fuck because thats what we have been doing for quite a while. At least according to mainstream history.

Its actually pretty stupid to think that price is bearish or bullish in the sense that it changes every tick or so. But on the other hand the GENERAL direction, thats another thing. Its very interesting that normal statistics and normal computer programs cant be used to interpret it.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #87
  • Aug 28, 2015 10:30am Aug 28, 2015 10:30am
The market is not real until you commit some money to it.
Therefore the "commitment" is more important than the market
  • #88
  • Aug 28, 2015 5:03pm Aug 28, 2015 5:03pm
Quoting Mingary
The market is not real until you commit some money to it. Therefore the "commitment" is more important than the market

the problem being the market does not understand ones frivolous commitment.

so one must surly understand the reason.

without reason there is ,or should not be commitment
  • #89
  • Edited 3:58am Aug 29, 2015 3:25am | Edited 3:58am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} the problem being the market does not understand ones frivolous commitment. so one must surly understand the reason. without reason there is ,or should not be commitment
Indeed one has to rationalize to make a decision.
(my methodology - system tells me this therefore my decision is this ...)
However, the market will do what it wants to do, the decision has no effect on the outcome.
Therefore, the commitment to a trade is the one and only true and relevant market information.
  • #90
  • Aug 30, 2015 7:23pm Aug 30, 2015 7:23pm
Closing the trade is the most important thing. from there, we know whether we have losing trade or winning trade.
Let Market Tell You
  • #91
  • Oct 1, 2015 7:35am Oct 1, 2015 7:35am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Averaging helps to smooth things out in our vision.

Inserted Video


Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #92
  • Last Post: Edited Oct 14, 2015 1:55am Oct 13, 2015 5:29am | Edited Oct 14, 2015 1:55am
Quoting Neio
Averaging helps to smooth things out in our vision. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FlV6pgwlrk Regards Neio
What in the name of mother goose and all the crap of the world !?
The the color my mind created wasnt very strong, kind of half of the original, but WOW it really DID create a lot of color.
Thats VERY interesting. I will show this to my woman. Thanks Neio.

EDIT: I watched it some more with my woman and i notice a flaw in his logic: The second part with the LED gadget, thats averaging, but i dont see how the thing with the mind adding colors have anything to do with that. The averaging thing i pretty much already knew about but this addition of colors, how MUCH of a difference it actually made is something other. Its sort of like there is no difference in wave length of light, our minds creates what it has already preconceived anyway.
My signature is: "Classified".
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