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Let's Trade Options

  • #10,401
  • Aug 27, 2015 2:51pm Aug 27, 2015 2:51pm
Listen, AW - this trading bs is for the birds. Can you find me a rich old lady down there who needs a shuffleboard partner? I still look good in a Speedo. There's a Speedo in there, just have to hoist up some beer belly.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,402
  • Aug 27, 2015 2:54pm Aug 27, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting The Fool
I don't have a good platform open, but even on the Yahoo chart I see a huge red volume spike, took SPY down to near $195, and btfd was on the spot....we'll see what happens into the close....
there ya go, every d gets b the f up, deja vu all over again. Thanks, Dudley,....loudmouth a-hole.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,403
  • Aug 27, 2015 3:06pm Aug 27, 2015 3:06pm
Quoting AaronWard
Hey, it seemed like the euro has gone from being a risk on currency to a risk off currency. I have been watching this for most of the day as the euro mirrors the S&P. S&P Up, Euro down and visa versa. Has this been going on for some time now or is this a relatively recent development? I remember from the old days that this was quite common, but it used to be that the Euro followed the equity markets, but now it seems like it does moves opposite to them.
euro has become a funding currency for risk assets - because it's cheap and there's lots around - so when somebody wants to buy a bunch of stocks, they sell a bunch of euros.

Just a guess....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,404
  • Aug 27, 2015 3:09pm Aug 27, 2015 3:09pm
Actually I think you could wear shorts if necessary. And I wouldnt worry about appearance too much. They don't. Need to watch for STDs though. Apparently they are at quite high levels
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,405
  • Aug 27, 2015 3:12pm Aug 27, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} euro has become a funding currency for risk assets - because it's cheap and there's lots around - so when somebody wants to buy a bunch of stocks, they sell a bunch of euros. Just a guess....?

My guess is that it is bots trading, but they have reversed the old risk on/risk off formula. or it might be my imagination. or a coincidence for today.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,406
  • Aug 27, 2015 3:54pm Aug 27, 2015 3:54pm
/ES back to 2k, 2100 next week? ...like the China shitstorm never happened. I am making money short VIX and long SPY, but I had bigger payoffs the other way. It's all good. Shaping up to be an interesting Fall. Dudley might have won this one, but he's running out of ammo...everybody knows it...you hear me, boy?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,407
  • Aug 27, 2015 5:33pm Aug 27, 2015 5:33pm
I need somebody splain to me wha happen wit VXX today? SPY up 2.5% and VXX up 2.5% too?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,408
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:42pm Aug 27, 2015 6:42pm
Quoting The Fool
I need somebody splain to me wha happen wit VXX today? SPY up 2.5% and VXX up 2.5% too?
The f'in weirdness continues in VIX products ... . I imagine there's positioning (even at this level) for another potential drop in indices ... . Been so whippy the past few days, I can kinda understand this, but don't have the cojones for a long here myself ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,409
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:49pm Aug 27, 2015 6:49pm
Quoting AaronWard
{quote} My guess is that it is bots trading, but they have reversed the old risk on/risk off formula. or it might be my imagination. or a coincidence for today.
Nahhh. My guess is that it's simply a function of the massive outflow from the U.S. markets into, well ... anywhere, and also the flight out of the Greenback generally. You'll notice a fairly big dip in USDJPY too ... . DXY or USDOLLAR (baskets of various Greenback cross currencies) that basically measure Greenback strength were down on the market dip ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,410
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:52pm Aug 27, 2015 6:52pm
The manic market ... . There's 54 cents of juice in 210/213 Oct monthly short call SPY verts ... . (Scratches head). Weren't we just there?
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,411
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:54pm Aug 27, 2015 6:54pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
The manic market ... . There's 54 cents of juice in 210/213 Oct monthly short call SPY verts ... . (Scratches head). Weren't we just there?
The way this market's been going, I'm unsure of whether that'll be there in the morning (or the opposite, 213/216 short call verts will suddenly have juice).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,412
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:06pm Aug 27, 2015 7:06pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} there ya go, every d gets b the f up, deja vu all over again. Thanks, Dudley,....loudmouth a-hole.
I knew Jackson Hole would result in a "spouter" ... . That's okay; made money going both ways on this bitch the past several days without bothering with a directional assumption ... . Nobbers in TradingView attempting to call direction (usually extremely short-term) in this mess have been mighty frustrated ... . A lot of crying over "strings of losses," etc. because they can't figure out where the hell this thing is going ... . I mean, who can? Defies any kind of analysis ... .

Maybe the "Soz" is right (some of the time) ("Don't show me the f'in chart, Tony!!!).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,413
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:24pm Aug 27, 2015 7:24pm
Because I'm feeling frisky (and want to keep at least 50% cash on), going to try and get a couple of October monthly setups filled: 178/181/210/213 SPY IC for an .89 credit and a 111/114/129/132 TLT IC for .64.

I'm laddering GLD short call verts from here to December and will add a December rung at 120/123 for .25 cr. (already have Sep, Oct, and Nov, and the Sep one will probably bow out worthless or nearly so very shortly). I could go more aggressive, but I'm trying to be mechanical with the setup, setting the short call leg at the 1 SD. (I mean, really, is there any chance in hell we'll see GLD 120 between now and December?).

I considered adding to my laddered FXE set-up, but I am beginning to hate the underlying due to the irregular expiries ... . Unfortunately, a lot of the currency proxies seem to be set up this way (e.g., UUP). Lesson learned on that one ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,414
  • Edited 8:39pm Aug 27, 2015 8:25pm | Edited 8:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
The manic market ... . There's 54 cents of juice in 210/213 Oct monthly short call SPY verts ... . (Scratches head). Weren't we just there?
I think the channel will shift down & I am looking to get in SPY call diagonals with a safe limit out to $213 or so, which puts the expiry maxP around $210 - which I think is the top end for the rest of the year. One such trade shown below, but I'd like to see SPY come up over $200 again first...& I might get in for a nickel credit

still thinking on how to DD it, where the downside Sept limit may be....?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,415
  • Aug 28, 2015 2:23am Aug 28, 2015 2:23am
wti looks poised to sell off Friday, the USO $13.5 puts can be got cheap at the open, for <5c
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-28_USO.png Size: 50 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,416
  • Aug 28, 2015 2:42am Aug 28, 2015 2:42am
where could it fill?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-28_uvxy.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,417
  • Aug 28, 2015 7:38am Aug 28, 2015 7:38am
Quoting The Fool
wti looks poised to sell off Friday, the USO $13.5 puts can be got cheap at the open, for <5c
gap down at the open, selloff may play out above $13.50.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,418
  • Aug 28, 2015 7:42am Aug 28, 2015 7:42am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} gap down at the open, selloff may play out above $13.50.....
watching it
  • #10,419
  • Aug 28, 2015 7:52am Aug 28, 2015 7:52am
Quoting The Fool
where could it fill?
UVXY BWB above, I will try to fill cheap as long as vix is elevated - ridiculous r:r
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,420
  • Aug 28, 2015 10:33am Aug 28, 2015 10:33am
Quoting The Fool
UVXY BWB above, I will try to fill cheap as long as vix is elevated - ridiculous r:r
tried 10c they want a buck twenty
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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