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vsa with Malcolm

  • #27,041
  • Aug 27, 2015 11:13am Aug 27, 2015 11:13am
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
Aud/usd trade i took. Bar goes down then closes on the high on higher volume. {image}
Great trade at a great location. Love that 2 bar buyers reversal (into the high of that UHV bar), especially where the down bar was an UT on increasing volume to sucker in shorts. Love how the up bar makes a LL sucking in even more shorts as the herd thinks lower prices are in order.

Lovely trade.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,042
  • Aug 27, 2015 11:20am Aug 27, 2015 11:20am
Quoting Sonofsin5
{quote} Oil just hit 42 on my platform. I'd be looking for a retrace on low volume followed by a NS.
Sounds like a plan . This is the most bullish the 4hr Oil chart has looked in some time. For some reason $40 is calling my name, not sure why just yet .
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,043
  • Aug 27, 2015 2:06pm Aug 27, 2015 2:06pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} I guess I recently took a long off 1954 ... Is anyone else with me?
Nice 35 point move up from entry level 1954 which is good considering the 20 day ADR is only 27.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,044
  • Aug 27, 2015 3:53pm Aug 27, 2015 3:53pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Nice 35 point move up from entry level 1954 which is good considering the 20 day ADR is only 27.
Hello Pres78

Nice move you made on S&P 500. I did trade it too today and improved my account by 16% today with the down move

I love that CFD S%P 500 trading and one need to love volatility seen today which was awesome to trade.

I am using some VSA stuff along with breakouts to trade that instrument and loving it.

Seems to me CFDS are more attracting to me then forex currencies for their potential predictabilities over forex. But of course that is just me and I am far from being an expert.

BTW love your contribution on this great VSA thread along with HiddenGap and others

InnerGrowth
  • #27,045
  • Aug 27, 2015 5:11pm Aug 27, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting pooh123
{quote} Hi Pres, Understood that in trading nothing works 100% and probably the trade failed for no obvious reason at all. Just wanted to see if I missed anything that would have invalidated the trade. Futures price moves almost the same as the cash market of Forex. It's just that, in the case of CHF, the futures price move is the opposite of that of the cash market, as it's denominated as USDCHF in the cash market, not CHFUSD (in the case of Euro and AUD, futures and cash are the same). So a long trade in CHF futures becomes a short trade in USDCHF...
The simplest thing I can say is don't forget the background. While I agree the zone "appeared" to be a SOW it was in fact an absorption zone. That was in fact the bar that proved the changed in trend. That bar pushed up and through an old swing high making the first HH, after putting in a LH. The next bar after was even an up bar showing the continuation of buyers force. The next 5 bars are all down bars which gives the appearance of weakness but due to time of day it's more likely profit taking and the bulls taking a breath to rebuild lower. Notice how at the end of day and inot the Asia session we make another HL (back at a previous level) and up from here we go. PA structure alone would be enough for me to not want to short that zone as we had a bull structure in place.

We had also seen some huge volume that came in on the 24th which we knew based on PA to follow was heavy buying after a heavy sell off.

Notice how the whole push to make that first HH started on the down bar which was 2 bars before the highest volume absorption bar. What I'd also like to point out is how on the move back down at the end of day on the 25th we make that HL but the bulls allowed price to dip below where the buying had really kicked in at that day so they could entice more sellers and fill more lower waiting buy orders.

Hope this helps... we need to know why the activity came in where it did and who was in control of it. Now had that bar on the 25th printed up the days high but failed to make a HH and the followed up with a LL I would be looking to sell with great interest upon returning to the low of the zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,046
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:07pm Aug 27, 2015 7:07pm
Watch the AUDUSD here everyone, wanting to rip higher.

Chart later
  • #27,047
  • Aug 27, 2015 8:56pm Aug 27, 2015 8:56pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} The simplest thing I can say is don't forget the background. While I agree the zone "appeared" to be a SOW it was in fact an absorption zone. That was in fact the bar that proved the changed in trend. {image}
Hi Pres,

Excellent explanation ! It's posts like this that help me learn the most. Now I see where I missed in the big picture. I'll benefit a lot by digesting this. I'll make a PDF copy of it. Thanks again for your help and I really appreciate it.
  • #27,048
  • Aug 28, 2015 3:38am Aug 28, 2015 3:38am
Quoting pooh123
{quote} Hi Pres, Excellent explanation ! It's posts like this that help me learn the most. Now I see where I missed in the big picture. I'll benefit a lot by digesting this. I'll make a PDF copy of it. Thanks again for your help and I really appreciate it.
some i gathered.
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File Type: zip Posts.zip   8.0 MB | 873 downloads
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #27,049
  • Aug 28, 2015 4:11am Aug 28, 2015 4:11am
Quoting classix
{quote} some i gathered. {file}
There're gold nuggets in there !
  • #27,050
  • Aug 28, 2015 7:31am Aug 28, 2015 7:31am
Quoting pooh123
{quote} Hi Pres, Excellent explanation ! It's posts like this that help me learn the most. Now I see where I missed in the big picture. I'll benefit a lot by digesting this. I'll make a PDF copy of it. Thanks again for your help and I really appreciate it.
Well I am glad that you can see some benefit in what I wrote. Sometimes I feel like I am talking to myself or perhaps saying too much. The biggest advise I can give is that you need to change how you think and see the markets. We as humans have a certain way we normally view money all of which is based around fear and greed especially if money has not come easily to us in life. We chase trades for fear of missing out. We buy and sell because that is what the news is telling us we should do. The SM know this about us and they exploit it. They use their huge accounts to whip the market around to fill their orders and shake out the weak holders in both directions. The carnage left behind is the dead carcasses of the herd.

They know how to manipulate the herd because they know how the herd trade. They know they can manipulate the traders that blindly buy and sell break outs, the know there are range traders that blindly buy and sell double tops and bottoms etc...

What they cannot hide however is points of increased activity. They cannot hide market structures etc... we can trade with them if we know where they are trading.

I as a trader buy on or after down bars, not chasing trades on up bars. I as a trader sell on or after up bars, not chasing trades on down bars. The SM want to buy low and sell high so we know that they are not buying market tops or selling market bottoms. They are filling their orders in the retraces.

Well that's long winded enough for me.

Think like the herd and then do the opposite.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,051
  • Aug 28, 2015 7:54am Aug 28, 2015 7:54am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Well I am glad that you can see some benefit in what I wrote. Sometimes I feel like I am talking to myself or perhaps saying too much. The biggest advise I can give is that you need to change how you think and see the markets. We as humans have a certain way we normally view money all of which is based around fear and greed especially if money has not come easily to us in life. We chase trades for fear of missing out. We buy and sell because that is what the news is telling us we should do. The SM know this about us and they exploit it....

Hello Pres78. I really thank you a lot for that post. It is pure gold and really interesting. Please don't stop sharing your great knowledge as is means a lot for a lot of us.

InnerGrowth
  • #27,052
  • Aug 28, 2015 7:57am Aug 28, 2015 7:57am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Well I am glad that you can see some benefit in what I wrote. Sometimes I feel like I am talking to myself or perhaps saying too much. The biggest advise I can give is that you need to change how you think and see the markets.
You're not talking to yourself. I think a lot about what you said,"...you need to change how you think and see the markets..."
  • #27,053
  • Edited 9:02am Aug 28, 2015 8:04am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Sounds like a plan . This is the most bullish the 4hr Oil chart has looked in some time. For some reason $40 is calling my name, not sure why just yet .
Recent PA structure has me now watching around $41 rather that $40 for sign of buyers stepping in.

Edit although $42 is a big number that was a huge support level back in March 2015 so... the bulls may choose to hold that level and we may not see it get back to $41...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,054
  • Aug 28, 2015 10:48am Aug 28, 2015 10:48am
While not closing above the previous bar, the bar itself does indeed go down just to close on the highs on higher volume. Trying to stick with these setups.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,055
  • Aug 28, 2015 10:58am Aug 28, 2015 10:58am
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
While not closing above the previous bar, the bar itself does indeed go down just to close on the highs on higher volume. Trying to stick with these setups. {image}
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,056
  • Aug 28, 2015 11:32am Aug 28, 2015 11:32am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Recent PA structure has me now watching around $41 rather that $40 for sign of buyers stepping in. Edit although $42 is a big number that was a huge support level back in March 2015 so... the bulls may choose to hold that level and we may not see it get back to $41...
And $42 it was. Off like a rocket.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,057
  • Edited 10:14pm Aug 29, 2015 8:50pm | Edited 10:14pm
Hello all.

I am a big fan of VSA for a long time and came back to trading recently.

Here is a nice setup I saw on 3min chart of S&P 500 cfd on august 27th. Classing textbook VSA setup for a long before day close. As this week have been really volatile, was a really great week to trade.

1) First we have stopping volume on first candle labelled. Strong down move candle closing on the low with ultra high volume. Next candle close up and confirm that SM were buying on the previous down candle.

2) 3 candles later we get a shakout. Candle with rapid down move to close on its high while printing a down wick with high volume but not ultra. In VSA term, this is definitely a successful attempt by SM to shake out weak holders in order to ease the next move who is to come.

3) 2 candles later we get 2 successful tests back to back. Narrow spread closing on the high on low volume with volume being less then the previous 2 candles. SM have been successful in testing for supply and found none and are now ready to mark price up for this bullish positions.

Indeed, follow a big rally up of about 300 ticks. Funny thing, this kind of VSA patterns, happen time and time again.

Wishing great trading to everybody for the next week coming.

InnerGrowth
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,058
  • Edited 10:24am Aug 31, 2015 9:55am | Edited 10:24am
USD/ JPY 5 min.
This was taking knowing there was some immediate support. I knew there a target/ceiling right above and that was where i placed my tp. Standard bar going down and coming back to close on the highs on higher volume. This was after a bit of a run which was why i kept the tp so tight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,059
  • Aug 31, 2015 5:09pm Aug 31, 2015 5:09pm
That's one impressive looking ND on EURUSD Daily Chart. Wow! GBP bank holiday could for sure have played some factor but man oh man that bar is weak looking. 1.1 would appear to be the next logical stop on the train. Will the bulls kick back in there and defend or will we soon be seeing parity (sorry big banks that are predicting higher prices)?

Insert SM subliminal message here "You must buy, buy, buy because the EURO is heading higher"...

If 1.1 gives and holds we lose our Daily TF bull structure by making that LL.

For those of you that use fibs 1.1 equals a 78.6 retrace of the "bull structure" move that started with the July 20th low and peaked at that Aug 24th high.

Coincidence?

No one knows but the market ...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,060
  • Aug 31, 2015 5:16pm Aug 31, 2015 5:16pm
Quoting pres78
That's one impressive looking ND on EURUSD Daily Chart. Wow! GBP bank holiday could for sure have played some factor but man oh man that bar is weak looking. 1.1 would appear to be the next logical stop on the train. Will the bulls kick back in there and defend or will we soon be seeing parity (sorry big banks that are predicting higher prices)? Insert SM subliminal message here "You must buy, buy, buy because the EURO is heading higher"... If 1.1 gives and holds we lose our Daily TF bull structure by making that LL. For those of you that...

Hello Pres78. Does your daily bars closed at 17h00 EST?

Thanks

InnerGrowth
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