Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting tashkent
there is definitely a LOT into this than we think, my friend. it is not as simple as just supply and demand. supply and demand is noting but an individual/group's opinion about the price behavior. price mostly moves up and down because of the huge order clusters. sometimes this is illustrated as a domino fall. price usually moves towards huge orders to fill them and when they cluster you get giga runs like happened with jpy pairs and the interesting part is nobody knows where all these orders are placed and there you get sporadic up and...

What you think about this fti??Today i was thinking at this thing and now i saw this post and would like to here your opinion.Tnks

Opinion about what please?
Who says no one knows where these orders are at.
People knows. Only its not public knowledge.
Depends how high up you are at the food chain.

markets always moves to where they can get business.
Is only natural.
To feed, one has to kill.
There is no other way.

regards

They even know who these orders belongs.
The strong eats, the weak gets eaten.
i no want to discuss the morals of the killing.
Its not personal, only commerce.

Free plates.
if you are on it.

https://www.facebook.com/JaanAryaBan...3481264550682/

we are not talking about the orders with a specific broker or bank but about the pool of any existing orders worldwide, right? and there is someone who knows all these orders no matter which broker or bank they were placed through?

The idea that this kind of knowledge is required for good trading or that really large institutions want to 'feed' off the small insignificant retrail trader is really quite flawed.

Technical analysis is really quite vacuous as a form of predictive analysis, but the fact that people have become successful using purely technical methods tells us more about the nature of markets than the actual form of analysis used.

Sry for being to vague,i was asking what its your opinion about the fact that TA dosnt actually matters,that S/R,price action,etc its nothing,big boys make the market moves where they want without carry about S/R,trends,etc.The only thing that moves market beside bankers are bad/good news,BUT big boys already know what the news are before they got publish

P.S:sry if you already answer to this type of question,must admit i didnt read the hole thread yet.Tnks

Hi Andy.

Allow me to chime in. Firstly, technical analysis as a form of price prediction tends to be no better than random and it is absurd for people to think that you can predict a future sequence of economic events by looking at a price chart. Even your so-called big boys will not be able to accurately predict future price because that involves having perfect knowledge of all market participants.

However, technical analysis is useful because it allows a trader to translate market events into a tradable form that can be applied across different markets.

That is exactly the point,they dont predict,they move the market where they need it.

If a player is so large that his trading activity moves the market, entering and exiting the market becomes so costly that he can only make money from bigger long-term moves.

what do you intend to derive by asking these questions?
does it matter whether nobody or somebody know where the orders are? so what if there is someone who knows, does it mean that it is rigged? if it is rigged, then why are you still trading the market? if you are still trading the market, is it because you have a proper strategy to beat the rigged the market? if you dont have a proper strategy and you think the market is rigged, then why you want ask someone else opinion whether the market is rigged or not? does the answer help you at all? you dont need those answers to come up with strategy.

having a strategy means you are already prepared for all eventualities whether rigged or not.

"he will win who prepares and takes the enemy unprepared"
"victorious strategy only seeks battle after it is won. he who is destined to lose, fight first and seek victory later."

TA is like trying to read the facial expression and body language of the girl who you are chasing. works half of the time and doesnt work the other half time. depends on the girl upbringing, weather, temperature, mood and your luck. why waste time arguing whether it works or not works?

some are born to get it right 90% of the time and they get all the chicks, some had to learn to achieve 75%, some learn very hard and still dont get it. some are just nerds and some are just not destined to be without a soulmate.

Slow your horses dude.First read what i ask and say,second:where the hell did i say anything about rigidity????????

I just wake up one day and start asking my self way price make some moves where is not respecting any TA,any logic,then in the evening i found that quote that i posted.And second ideea was to post the quote here and get an opinion from a guy that worked as a trader.

Way ar you so offended?????

FOR ME if i want to be a trader i must know how things work,i cant just use TA or robots just cause some guy have profit or because is simple.Its like i want to open a bussines but i know nothing about.

So take a breath and think twice before jump like burned.

If u see a girl smiling at u, what do u think if she is

1. Standing in from of a dead body
2. She made a mistake in her work
3. She is holding a trophy
4. She is introducing herself

yaya at says smile at you means like you. But she is not so TA doesn't work.

Your the only person who understand what you want to prove

hi, Andy, I would say jacque is right, but ur right in the attitude to want to figure out more of what u do not understand, there is very real science in technical analysis, but that's the old school technical analysis, which is totally different from the current ones, which are predictive in nature, fti's method, I have studied thru 2 years, compared and contrasted with numerous other extremely successful traders, like Richard Dennis, Jesse Livermore, WD gann, Richard wyckoff, Linda Bradford raschke, Paul Tudor Jones and peter steidlmayer of market profile all point to and support that fti's method is very powerful, it is more on financial market psychology than indicator trading.

What jacque mentioned is that, the market condition is even more important than the technical read of the market, most technical indicators based trading systems fail because they do not factor in the market condition and the nature which the market keeps changing, they made an assumption about the market which is either untrue or is now invalid and hence the trade is invalid now, as for the trade management plan, that's for u t find what works for u, notice all great technical traders are all either discretionary traders, or their trading system has solid and sound principles behind them and that's why their systems work, I would like u to think about what is the fallacy which fti is talking abt, that is where the edge lies, and why the old school ta works so powerful compared to the current ta, study the Dow theory and think if fundamentals and news are really neglected in ta driven trading

I can give you a case of how WD Gann trades the markets, which most people look at and think astrology and indicators drive his trading, but these are fallacies. The true way WD Gann trade is tape reading, if you read Truth of the Stock Tape 1923, his method is all there, price action aka tape reading, market structure, behavioural psychology, inter-market correlations among stocks in the same sectors which in forex is fti's 3 kingdom, pyramiding which is attack, and most importantly, are we in a bull or bear market, or which phase are we in now? the accumulation, distribution or marking up or down phase? notice that richard wyckoff used the same terminology as well, and he himself studied how gann had traded, look at the interview he did with gann, but then when people talk about and write books about how he used astrology and used gann angles and such, i wonder if they truely understood how gann traded?
http://www.tradingfives.com/gann/wd-...rview-1909.htm

These people are technical traders, but back then, there was no technical indicators like rsi or macd or anything, but yet they became even more successful than now, and at the core of their studies probably are the 6 tenets of dow theory. Jesse Livermore himself stated he looked for pivot points, which are indications of accumulation/distribution, so this should itself tell us more that the 6 tenets of dow theory is extremely important. Also, if you read peter steidlmayer's market profile book where he mentioned the big barn boss, what does that look like? it looks exactly like richard wyckoff's point and figure charts where he used it to detect accumulation and distribution, interesting that this concept existed before steidlmayer's time. steidlmayer himself said, for most traders fundamentals are the background and price is the foreground.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...lRaTJHzyFVRJHw

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...PAG2iT_8p93MTg

these 2 books are written by richard wyckoff, and i see his technical read of the market is essentially the same as fti's feel the market.

finally, in an interview with paul tudor jones in the new market wizards series, paul tudor jones said his success was attributed to 50% tape reading, 50% fundamentals and back then, fundamentals was so incomplete they learnt to go with the tape, and price moves first then fundamentals move.

notice that in traditional technical analysis, the moving average cross over are the transportation index and the broader market's index, and not moving average cross over of 2 moving averages, because the transportation index and broader market index represents the entire economy of USA, and because if they cross over to turn up, it indicates the economy is either recovering temporarily, or recovering into a bull phase, there is fundamental and correlational ideas embedded inside the technicals.

also notice that in the analysis which fti does on charts, he himself mention the words accumulation and distribution, which are key to the analysis itself, which makes it consistent with all the traders mentioned above, the only difference is in how they conducted their trade management and money management which is a function of their personality and lifestyle as to what they can do and what they can't do with respect to their commitments and such.

so i would say, what exactly do you define as technical analysis? because using indicators only to trade without understanding the core ideals of technical analysis which are the 6 tenets of technical analysis is not technical analysis, its called mis-application of tools, and its little wonder people lose money on it.

when i trade, i ask myself 2 questions, how complete is my fundamental information? its typically extremely incomplete, but we know when the news and numbers are out with forexfactory's calendars, and let me put it straight, i don't even know how to judge if the numbers are good or bad, i only know to see if when its coming out, thats all im really concerned about. and the next question is, when price is moving against me, what do the big boys know that i don't know? if there is a strong chance of me being wrong, how to tune back into flow with them? what kind of phase is the market in now? are big boys accumulating/distributing for some event that is going to be priced in next which i do not know of and does not appear on the economy calendar which they already received word of?

Hi Gefx....

V

But Jacque said it so nicely.........

ah well, i thought both mis-understood each other and needed some help.

No no..... nice explanation .........Jacque reminded me of FTI.......

I read Gann's tunnel book.... very FTI to me .... nice fairy tale too

Take care

Alex

yep, gann's tunnel book is interesting, i guess what they are trying to do is make the reader think alot about the ideas written down, and finally when they arrive at the conclusion, they would have understood the why, and not just the how of trading.

I think the trades in the book explain themselves... too.... and the background knowledge of market whilst growing up etc etc.

Regards

Alex