Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 296 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,901
  • Aug 25, 2015 3:25pm Aug 25, 2015 3:25pm
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} I put my answer to this question on the chart. Am I right? Thank you very much for your time. I am trying to learn this method here until I can scrape up the money for a three month subscription to the private site. I am not exactly showered with money right now. {image}
I'm trying to answer you: a cp is a cp and is not a reaction of anything. The level that you are asking is a cp on top of a cp
Can i suggest you an homework to do for at the beginning?
Frist of all be patience if you decide to learn this strategy you have to be patience because some particular are very important most important of trade by itself. So decide this at first.
Open 10 pairs starting from the very beginning and draw zones and share it with us.
Second of all for all these pairs draw the TL following the rules and share it at the same
Don't think to take trade just learn. Start in the correct way is a key
  • #5,902
  • Aug 25, 2015 11:38pm Aug 25, 2015 11:38pm
Another excercise that you could do is read letterarly the price action (a very helpful way to learn about the zones)
Take a screenshot of a chart
With paint or whatever software you want draw what you see.
A cp is an horizzontal line
a peak or a valley is a V or an inverted V
The S&P Have done an inefficient rally in these last couple of years, you can compare it and understand what i mean with the aud\usd could you see the difference?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 70 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 69 KB
  • #5,903
  • Aug 26, 2015 1:27am Aug 26, 2015 1:27am
I just wanted to let you know that I have been on holidays for the whole month of August, still a few days left until the end of the month, which is why I have not been able to reply to your questions, sorry for that. Will get back to you as soon as I'm back home.

Have a great week and great holidays wherever you are
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,904
  • Aug 26, 2015 2:39am Aug 26, 2015 2:39am
Quoting panoramia
I just wanted to let you know that I have been on holidays for the whole month of August, still a few days left until the end of the month, which is why I have not been able to reply to your questions, sorry for that. Will get back to you as soon as I'm back home. Have a great week and great holidays wherever you are Cheers, Alfonso
I wish you a very nice holiday alfonso. I have read through your first post and it is fantastic! Thank you so much to share all this knowledge with us.
Scan all 28 Forex pairs with ONE chart... Currency Strength28 Indicators
  • #5,905
  • Aug 26, 2015 5:22am Aug 26, 2015 5:22am
Quoting panoramia
I just wanted to let you know that I have been on holidays for the whole month of August, still a few days left until the end of the month, which is why I have not been able to reply to your questions, sorry for that. Will get back to you as soon as I'm back home. Have a great week and great holidays wherever you are Cheers, Alfonso
No problem Alfonso. I hope you don't mind all of my posts here. Have a good holiday!
  • #5,906
  • Aug 26, 2015 6:07am Aug 26, 2015 6:07am
Quoting alegargano
Another exercise...............The S&P Have done an inefficient rally in these last couple of years, you can compare it and understand what i mean with the aud\usd could you see the difference? {image} {image}
I will admit that this took me a minute to see. I think the difference is that the AUD/USD made pullbacks as it fell. The S&P has risen and risen making CP after CP with really no re-tests. So this last fall does not mean we are in a bear market. It simply means that we could be in bullish consolidation before continuing higher. I made some remarks on the chart. What do you think?

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: None.png Size: 128 KB
  • #5,907
  • Aug 26, 2015 9:09am Aug 26, 2015 9:09am
Quoting alegargano
{quote} If you are referring to at the wk candle you shouldn't look at the wk chart until friday
no . i am talking about the daily , sir
the new candle with this long wick delete all the previous supply and demand areas or we can just ignore this wick because it's upnormal and happened due to infromality in the market and big interfere of banks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forexfac.jpg Size: 232 KB
  • #5,908
  • Aug 26, 2015 9:17am Aug 26, 2015 9:17am
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} I will admit that this took me a minute to see. {image}
Well it is good for you my friend
We are not yet in a bullish consolidation because as per the rules to have a bullish consolidation we have to remove one zone of demand, and\ or the price have to break the TL with one OHCL candle away. In this case the all the demand zone are potential demand.
You have 2 certain things: You have the wk wow short at a strong resistance level (don't go long against it)
And the MN demand (potential because it didn't removed any supply) where the price is now don't go against it with short.
In this case you have to wait, for what?
The wk demand where the price is now is to big and have a long pin candle so it could be LO and normally the price penetrate a little bit lower a tested area.
So wait for the lower penetration of that level, brand new wow long on the d1 PLUS the removal 1 OPPOSITE ZONE OF SUPPLY on the d1 to go long until the wk wow short. For all this you need time so don't loose spleep thinking about this index (this is the advantage of set and forget strategy).
If the price will draw a second peak on the MN and then the price start to drop again, forget about all the zones that we had draw.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.png Size: 195 KB
  • #5,909
  • Aug 26, 2015 12:08pm Aug 26, 2015 12:08pm
Take a peak at my thoughts on EUR/USD monthly. My marks are on the chart. We would currently be looking for shorts when price returns to the lower DBD zone. Right now we are low on the curve and should favor shorts. Those areas above peak 2 are all CP as they do not break peak 2 or the high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $:CAD.png Size: 124 KB
  • #5,910
  • Aug 26, 2015 4:10pm Aug 26, 2015 4:10pm
Hi Alfonso,

For the wiggle room on 4H charts, are you still using 7 pips for major pairs and 10 pips for the others?
  • #5,911
  • Edited 1:58am Aug 27, 2015 1:46am | Edited 1:58am
Quoting bassemJ
{quote} no . i am talking about the daily , sir the new candle with this long wick delete all the previous supply and demand areas or we can just ignore this wick because it's upnormal and happened due to infromality in the market and big interfere of banks. {image}
Never, ever ignore anything on a chart though how it might seem weird, ugly, exceptional or out of this world. This daily wick is there and u should consider it in every future analysis of yours.

Edit: What's more, there is a monthly demand area there which the price is reacting to.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYDaily.png Size: 42 KB
Trade what you see..
  • #5,912
  • Aug 27, 2015 4:51am Aug 27, 2015 4:51am
Hello Alfonso, I hope you can comment my last loss. NZDJPY H4 Sell. Was it just a loss or I made something wrong?
Did you take that trade?
----------------------------------------
All trends are down (WK, D, H4).
There were no opposing zone in control.
My H4 zone was fresh and original.
Thanks in advance!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYWeekly.png Size: 52 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYDaily.png Size: 49 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYH4.png Size: 27 KB
  • #5,913
  • Aug 27, 2015 5:39am Aug 27, 2015 5:39am
Quoting John.
Hello Alfonso, I hope you can comment my last loss. NZDJPY H4 Sell. Was it just a loss or I made something wrong? Did you take that trade? ---------------------------------------- All trends are down (WK, D, H4). There were no opposing zone in control. My H4 zone was fresh and original. Thanks in advance! {image} {image} {image}
IMHO this is not a tradable supply zone as it hasn't removed any opposing demand, you shouldn't sell there.
Trade what you see..
  • #5,914
  • Aug 27, 2015 5:54am Aug 27, 2015 5:54am
Quoting bassemJ
{quote} no . i am talking about the daily , sir the new candle with this long wick delete all the previous supply and demand areas or we can just ignore this wick because it's upnormal and happened due to infromality in the market and big interfere of banks. {image}
ok, it will depend on what the price would do. We are at the MN demand in a MN uptrend. If the price decide to drop into the level of demand below nested with the MN demand, we will not consider that shadow at all. We will have a level of supply too low in the MN curve, so Lower odds.
If the price decide to rally strongly, then in that shadow we will have a h4 wow long that we could try...
The price needs time to draw pattern on the daily, our target is know the reallignment and sequence rules set and forget the trade with the trend.
Don't be focus on each single movement that the price do day by day: Alfonso say always, LOOK AT THE FOREST not the single tree
  • #5,915
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:14am Aug 27, 2015 6:14am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} IMHO this is not a tradable supply zone as it hasn't removed any opposing demand, you shouldn't sell there.
Yeah... but there was no demand to remove
But may be you are right and that's the key.
  • #5,916
  • Aug 27, 2015 8:15am Aug 27, 2015 8:15am
I have a question about the S/D in control. This also relates to your homework for me Alergano. If DBR/RBD are always reactions to RBR/DBD, than why are we always looking for trades mostly at DBR/RBD. Alfonso will always say that the DBR/RBD is the origin of a move, but really it should be the DBD/RBR its touching. So really a trade at a pivot is not original then by definition. Right?
Thanks
  • #5,917
  • Aug 27, 2015 8:33am Aug 27, 2015 8:33am
Quoting Stockguy
I have a question about the S/D in control. This also relates to your homework for me Alergano. If DBR/RBD are always reactions to RBR/DBD, than why are we always looking for trades mostly at DBR/RBD. Alfonso will always say that the DBR/RBD is the origin of a move, but really it should be the DBD/RBR its touching. So really a trade at a pivot is not original then by definition. Right? Thanks

your question is not a questio, i mean, you are talking about 2 different things:

1) a supply or demand in controll, is the place where the price is moving. For instance no s&P in this moment we have the wk demand in controll because the price is reacting to it. i hope it's clear now.

2) Your topic is correct when you have a trend estabilished: Most of the time a RBD\DBR IN TREND is a reaction of a cp, but we have also the fresh and original levels that are not reaction of any level. So when you trade WITH the trend and the price creates a GOOD and VALID cp level thats your entry that will creates a peak\valley. Is difficult being triggered into a cp from another cp

Alfonso talk about the origin of the movement how higher odds zone when you are waiting for a resume of the trend: For example you have a strong rally on the daily that makes an HH than the previous High, but on the way up the price has draw 3 or more cp pattern.
At this point the price hits an higher tf zone counter the htf trend and the price reacts from it and break the TL. Waiting for the beginning of the movement where you have the DBR is the only thing you could do because the cp are lower odds when the TL is broken .
  • #5,918
  • Aug 27, 2015 9:43am Aug 27, 2015 9:43am
Quoting alegargano
{quote} ok, it will depend on what the price would do. We are at the MN demand in a MN uptrend. If the price decide to drop into the level of demand below nested with the MN demand, we will not consider that shadow at all. We will have a level of supply too low in the MN curve, so Lower odds. If the price decide to rally strongly, then in that shadow we will have a h4 wow long that we could try... The price needs time to draw pattern on the daily, our target is know the reallignment and sequence rules set and forget the trade with the trend. ...
well , that explained alot to me now , i will consider this small ticks that i forget to put in my consideration and i really appreciate your help alegargano , thanks alot.
  • #5,919
  • Aug 27, 2015 11:03am Aug 27, 2015 11:03am
Are there anybody here who is experienced enough and trading SD in real? I can not understand what is wrong with my trading... 2 last months I have just one half of normal number of orders opened and my profit is zero 2 months in a row. Does somebody see something same or the problem is inside myself?
  • #5,920
  • Aug 27, 2015 11:23am Aug 27, 2015 11:23am
Quoting John.
Are there anybody here who is experienced enough and trading SD in real? I can not understand what is wrong with my trading... 2 last months I have just one half of normal number of orders opened and my profit is zero 2 months in a row. Does somebody see something same or the problem is inside myself?

I'm one of the member of the private community and i'm studying these rules from 1 year and i'm not feeling ready to a full time live trading, i took few trades with my live account now let me ask you:

1) from how long are you studying or interested in the set and forget rules?
2) Did you backtest the strategy?
3) How long you backtest it?
4) how many times have you read the first post here?
5) how many times have you spent watching the video on Alfonso's channel?
6) for how many times you've tried the strategy on demo account?
6 traders viewing now