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  • #10,381
  • Aug 25, 2015 11:27pm Aug 25, 2015 11:27pm
Quoting The Fool
Shanghai opens in a minute and I expect that shit to rally and /ES to rally overnight, SPY to gap up >$2 Wed
looking good, SHCOMP up 2.5%, /ES up 20, let's see if Europe can hold the line - I need to see things mellow out thru next week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,382
  • Aug 26, 2015 9:23am Aug 26, 2015 9:23am
Quoting The Fool
short VIX....IVR for VXX up at 87%, the 10-day diagonal shown plays for a vix crash, a stawks rally into next week. Prolly a long shot - but it goes on for near $0 and is safe down to about $17.50
filled blocks of these VXX Sept1/Sept2 $19/$18 puts for $0.00 and $0.01
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,383
  • Aug 26, 2015 10:50am Aug 26, 2015 10:50am
I am getting what I need on SPY - the short $191/$188 puts I have a couple blocks, the only "problem" I need to solve in my books - if SPY will float up north of $195 by next week I will just take them off for small profit or loss. Otherwise, I am loving the volatility. My "career" as an options trader has been spent in a period of very low vol.....but I can see very clearly that options trading gets much easier when there is vol to work with. I'd expect we will see more of it, hope I'm right....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,384
  • Aug 26, 2015 1:29pm Aug 26, 2015 1:29pm
Quoting The Fool
Well, we see a deep V in the making, could rival Oct 14.....some trick, huh? - we got the coveted 10% "correction", and the exchanges locked everyone out at the bottom (except for you know who) due to "quoting problems" and breakers, etc. Fuckers. Now we're back to late August calm. Soon to be replaced by pre-Sept-FOMC jitters? we'll see....I won't be surprised to see /ES bounced above 2000 by week's end....
Word. Operation "Deep V" well underway....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,385
  • Aug 26, 2015 3:25pm Aug 26, 2015 3:25pm
Quoting The Fool
I am getting what I need on SPY - the short $191/$188 puts I have a couple blocks, the only "problem" I need to solve in my books - if SPY will float up north of $195 by next week I will just take them off for small profit or loss. Otherwise, I am loving the volatility. My "career" as an options trader has been spent in a period of very low vol.....but I can see very clearly that options trading gets much easier when there is vol to work with. I'd expect we will see more of it, hope I'm right....
You're right about the volatility ... . Definitely makes the setups more profitable, that's for sure ... . Huge diff between the credit you get when SPY IVR is 35 versus 100 ... .

With this whippiness in the index ETF's, I think having the iron condors on has helped. Rather than taking off the entire setup in one shot, I've been taking out the wings at 50% max profit and then replacing the wings with a new vert (almost all on the call side, frankly) ... . So while some of the put wings have problems (they're "in call" one day, not in the next, "in call" the next), I've still been locking in a bit of profit along the way (mostly on the short call end of things). I'd be amazed if I didn't have to roll anything mid- to late September, which is when most of this stuff expires.

Unfortunately, I haven't put anything "new" on in the past few days. Most of the profits I've locked in/positions I've closed are IC wings that hit 50% max (although I did finally get out of that Sep 4th 98/101 SVXY short call vert. Put it on for .98 credit; off for .05 db.)
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,386
  • Aug 26, 2015 3:34pm Aug 26, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} You're right about the volatility ... . Definitely makes the setups more profitable, that's for sure ... . Huge diff between the credit you get when SPY IVR is 35 versus 100 ... .
any of the trades that capitalize on selling premium (condors, diagonals, straight shorts, etc) have gone from marble-sized to volleyball-sized - much easier to hit....you don't have to be looking out 60d, either.....I just hope it lasts awhile.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,387
  • Aug 26, 2015 3:59pm Aug 26, 2015 3:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} any of the trades that capitalize on selling premium (condors, diagonals, straight shorts, etc) have gone from marble-sized to volleyball-sized - much easier to hit....you don't have to be looking out 60d, either.....I just hope it lasts awhile.
Fingers crossed ... . I'm a big fan of making more $$ per trade ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,388
  • Aug 26, 2015 10:43pm Aug 26, 2015 10:43pm
IVR on the rise on this dog, maybe iv will break the year's high of 13.6% (woohoo)......anyway, somebody sold 50,000 Sept $25 calls today @ 19c, naked it appears, gotta be covered.....5,000,000 shares? .....idk, basically a bet on a Dudley dump of the USD.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,389
  • Aug 27, 2015 9:45am Aug 27, 2015 9:45am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Word. Operation "Deep V" well underway....

EPIC....THANKS, Dudley....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,390
  • Aug 27, 2015 10:19am Aug 27, 2015 10:19am
Quoting The Fool
I am getting what I need on SPY - the short $191/$188 puts I have a couple blocks, the only "problem" I need to solve in my books - if SPY will float up north of $195 by next week I will just take them off for small profit or loss.....
$191 puts short less of a problem now, I will let ride and see if there will ever be any exhaustion of this rally, look to IC there if possible -- but with SPY iv falling not likely I will get much for a $3 Sept call spread, so I have a 60% profit target order on for the Sept $191/$188 puts....that's sitting in about a nickel profit right now
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,391
  • Edited 4:39pm Aug 27, 2015 10:23am | Edited 4:39pm
after all this rally frenzy I might suggest some profit taking to be seen Friday & a little resistance at SPY $200, if I were brave I might sell the Friday $201/$202.50 calls for $0.30....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,392
  • Aug 27, 2015 10:29am Aug 27, 2015 10:29am
Quoting The Fool
after all this rally frenzy I might suggest some profit taking to be seen Friday & a little resistance at SPY $200, if I were brave I might sell the Friday $201/$202.50 calls fro $0.30....
why not buy a deep out of the money put for pennies, anything thing can happen with this volatility and if you win you make multiples but if it doesn't work out you only lose a little. last day for weekly expiry tomorrow
  • #10,393
  • Aug 27, 2015 10:34am Aug 27, 2015 10:34am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} why not buy a deep out of the money put for pennies, anything thing can happen with this volatility and if you win you make multiples but if it doesn't work out you only lose a little. last day for weekly expiry tomorrow
i'll be eyeing up a long 196 put on SPY near the end of trading day to get the cheapest price, hoping for 10c or lower
  • #10,394
  • Aug 27, 2015 10:41am Aug 27, 2015 10:41am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} i'll be eyeing up a long 196 put on SPY near the end of trading day to get the cheapest price, hoping for 10c or lower
iv has been falling but it's still kinda high, 23% there at SPY $196 puts. You're not gonna see 10c & likely won't go below 30c. I am thinking about doing that bear call spread I show above, but it's outside my risk profile, so I probably won't....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,395
  • Aug 27, 2015 10:49am Aug 27, 2015 10:49am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} iv has been falling but it's still kinda high, 23% there at SPY $196 puts. You're not gonna see 10c & likely won't go below 30c. I am thinking about doing that bear call spread I show above, but it's outside my risk profile, so I probably won't....
if not 196 then 195, you tend to see the weekly options lose most of its time value in the last 30 minutes of trading with just one day left to expiry
  • #10,396
  • Aug 27, 2015 11:07am Aug 27, 2015 11:07am
OK, I will watch. You used to be able to get in the near otm VXX strikes for pennies on Thursday close, but elevated iv has messed that up, too.

Doing long calls/puts is a strategy for low iv - high iv begs for shorts, diagonals, bflys, etc....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,397
  • Aug 27, 2015 11:51am Aug 27, 2015 11:51am
at this rate, we will close in a negative territory again
  • #10,398
  • Aug 27, 2015 12:21pm Aug 27, 2015 12:21pm
Quoting darimik
at this rate, we will close in a negative territory again
you had to expect some profit taking towards the end of this epic week.....somebody made some insane pwofits
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,399
  • Aug 27, 2015 12:38pm Aug 27, 2015 12:38pm
I don't have a good platform open, but even on the Yahoo chart I see a huge red volume spike, took SPY down to near $195, and btfd was on the spot....we'll see what happens into the close....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,400
  • Aug 27, 2015 12:50pm Aug 27, 2015 12:50pm
Hey, it seemed like the euro has gone from being a risk on currency to a risk off currency. I have been watching this for most of the day as the euro mirrors the S&P. S&P Up, Euro down and visa versa.

Has this been going on for some time now or is this a relatively recent development? I remember from the old days that this was quite common, but it used to be that the Euro followed the equity markets, but now it seems like it does moves opposite to them.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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