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The Secret Indicator?

  • #101
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:03am Aug 21, 2015 2:03am
My eyes.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #102
  • Aug 21, 2015 12:16pm Aug 21, 2015 12:16pm
Very surprisingly, over 70% voted "NO" to the question. Wonder why...
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #103
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:14pm Aug 21, 2015 2:14pm
SURE, the profitable trader has his own secret indicator.
  • #104
  • Aug 23, 2015 8:54pm Aug 23, 2015 8:54pm
Sure there are secret indicators. indicators individual traders have developed based on their own personal ideas and trading systems.
they are not likely to share such indicator with the public, just because they don't want to risk their method to become unprofitable.
which it could, if many would starting to use the same thing. and besides, it have costed them money to code if they couldn't do it by them selves.
I have an indicator like that, but it is just a tool, nothing I get buy and sell signals from,
and I plan to develope another based on other ideas that have evolved over time. but these are just tools. first and foremost I trade price action.
as I see it, indicators are just tools to help out with trading to make it more clear and simple. you should learn to trade price by it's own.
taking buy and sell signals from an indicator is a fools game, unless you know what your'e doing.
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #105
  • Edited 11:52pm Aug 23, 2015 11:11pm | Edited 11:52pm
Show me an indicator that 'appears' to win all the time and I will always find charts that cause it to fail. That chart is usually for a different pair, a different timeframe or a different year where market conditions are contrary to the chart that appears to fit the indicator settings like a magic glove.

Forex charts move because humans (retail & bank) are opening and closing positions based on neurological analysis and financial psychology, i.e. desire, greed & fear.

In essence, a Forex chart represents the end result from the mass psychology of millions of mindsets.

Even Fibonacci systems are fallible! The numbers 38.2% and 61.8% (not 50%! you humans added that half way mark! ) are merely retro-fitted into a system by 'human minds', not by mother nature. They fit because everyone is choosing the same top and bottom of a price swing, not because charts have a magical sweetspot that attracts candlesticks like ants to candy. Again, show me a fib chart that 'fits' and I'll show you three that don't.


There is only one way to consistently improve your odds of winning a Forex trade:
Understand the mid/long term direction of a currency based on the economy,
and have the guts to cut your losses if the fundamental economics go against the reasons for the original trade.

At least fundamentals are based on facts rather that mere faith in a mathematical formula that can fail at any time.

Btw, I am sure there are indicators that can work to an extent, provided that you can detect when the fundamentals of
the currency (for indicator's 'best fit' winning streak) have changed, and stop trading the indicator thereafter.
Nonetheless, the 'fundamentals' are the key, not the indicator itself.
Buy the fact itself!
  • #106
  • Aug 24, 2015 8:37am Aug 24, 2015 8:37am
I would love to see how those 'secret indicators' handled this flash crash..
I'm sure just as many traders made an accidental 'killing' as accounts got blown.
Buy the fact itself!
  • #107
  • Edited Aug 25, 2015 12:16pm Aug 24, 2015 9:59pm | Edited Aug 25, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting Ishtana
The only way that a secret indicator can work is if it is able to detect the movement of the major players.
It's probably silly to reply to an old post, but......

..... suppose the quoted statement were true. Well, the only data from which indicators can be built is price and (if MT4, br0ker tick) volume. Hence you'd need to (1) show that heavyweight movement can be detected from price and volume, (2) reduce the price/volume pattern(s) to a codeable formula, and (3) for the indicator to add value, it must highlight behavior that's not immediately obvious by merely looking at the chart itself.

Also, gotta love that word "secret", a word that's frequently used in dubious sales pitch. There are something like 14 million (aspiring) traders currently using MT4 alone, and no doubt umpteen million who've experimented with systems and strategies before them. How likely is it, in the decades that markets have been around, that one retail trader has managed to contextualize price and volume in a profitable way that nobody else -- including all of the veteran analysts, institutional traders, and math/econophysics PhDs -- has ever considered before?

The only requirement is knowledge and experience -- and of course the personal qualities (patience, discipline, nerve, self-belief, ....) needed to implement a strategy consistently -- none of which is a secret.
  • #108
  • Aug 25, 2015 4:10am Aug 25, 2015 4:10am
Quoting hanover
{quote} It's probably silly to reply to an old post, but...... ..... suppose the quoted statement were true. Well, the only data from which indicators can be built is price and (if MT4, br0ker tick) volume. Hence you'd need to show that heavyweight movement can be detected from price and volume, reduce the pattern(s) to a codeable formula, and also -- for the indicator to add value -- that it highlights behavior not immediately obvious by merely looking at the chart itself. Also, gotta love that word "secret", a word that's frequently used in dubious...
Well said, Hanover!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #109
  • Aug 25, 2015 4:35pm Aug 25, 2015 4:35pm
Quoting IpsoFacto
Show me an indicator that 'appears' to win all the time
..........
the 'fundamentals' are the key, not the indicator itself.
After 8-9 years of experimenting with forex, I've reached very similar conclusions to yours.

Nonetheless, I personally know a couple of traders who have been profitable with some consistency, over several years, by using technical analysis (but not through the use of a "secret" indicator).

Quoting Forexia
{quote} Well said, Hanover!
Thanks.
Just stating what seems obvious to me.
  • #110
  • Aug 25, 2015 7:20pm Aug 25, 2015 7:20pm
Quoting hanover
After 8-9 years of experimenting with forex, I've reached very similar conclusions to yours. Nonetheless, I personally know a couple of traders who have been profitable with some consistency, over several years, by using technical analysis (but not through the use of a "secret" indicator).
I think the primary reason why traders use technical analysis many times over fundamental analysis although the fundamental factors may drive the price but the results can be still unpredictable and technical analysis many times provides the confirmation as eventually everything is supposed to be reflected in the price action and technical analysis is the analysis of the price action. And indicators is just a way that we try to train the machine to see the PA as our eyes do and to also achieve some consistency so to achieve the ultimate trader's dream: Make money while sipping on a Pina Colada on a white sand beach...

Quoting hanover
Thanks. Just stating what seems obvious to me.
You are welcome, Hanover. Was just stating the obvious too. Good trading!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #111
  • Edited Aug 26, 2015 6:37am Aug 25, 2015 10:48pm | Edited Aug 26, 2015 6:37am
A Honest Reply to "Secret Indicators"

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swan.jpg Size: 90 KB



1. You will never believe a black swan exist until you see one. No amount of rationality and logical reasoning will suffice.
(Note: This statement also doesn't suggest that you should start believing, if you haven't seen one.)

2. If you know anyone successful (in any field of endeavor), it is because they know something that you don't.

3. Whenever you ask these individuals, they simply reply that they do such and such...
but the truth is that they're simply being polite, instead of saying "I'm not going to tell you."
And then, as a typical human with cognitive biases and irrationality, they wish you to "work hard and you will get there someday".
They will lie and look you in the eyes and say, "I told you everything. I'm not hiding anything."


"Because this is the polite way... when you're having a conversation with someone and they accidentally spit on your face... Nobody says anything... because it is a secret... You both see the spit land on your face... but nobody says anything.... You got their spit on your face... But you don't say anything... because you are afraid of hurting their feelings... you got their spit on your face... and you're afraid of hurting their feelings..."
~ Carl Baron (comedian)


Peace,
CrucialPoint
  • #112
  • Edited 11:41pm Aug 25, 2015 11:25pm | Edited 11:41pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
2. If you know anyone successful (in any field of endeavor), it is because they know something that you don't. 3. Whenever you ask these individuals, they simply reply that they do such and such... but the truth is that they're simply being polite, instead of saying "I'm not going to tell you." And then, as a typical human with cognitive biases and irrationality, they wish you to "work hard and you will get there someday". They will lie and look you in the eyes and say, "I told you everything. I'm not hiding anything."...
Having read interviews and biographys of many great traders, I strongly disagree.

Quoting Ishtana
Do you have a secret indicator that no one knows about, but works consistently in making you money?
Risk-free profits are almost all arbitraged away. I can assure you that if you think you have an indicator that makes you money all the time, it is more likely that you have been the beneficiary of favourable market conditions.

My indicators work for me all the time in indicating what they are supposed to indicate whether the result is a win or a loss.
  • #113
  • Aug 26, 2015 12:26am Aug 26, 2015 12:26am
You asked the question below.
////
What's the point of using a secret indicator that no one knows about, no one uses, and particularly, no one will react to?

The only way that a secret indicator can work is if it is able to detect the movement of the major players. If such indicator exist, than it is worth searching or building for.
////

Let me ask you.
Why would a major player decides to sell or buy at any particular price? What is the reason behind that?
If you know, that is where the secret lies.
  • #114
  • Aug 26, 2015 1:20am Aug 26, 2015 1:20am
IMHO....

Indicator not to predict the market, but to follow the direction...

Cheers...
  • #115
  • Aug 26, 2015 1:23am Aug 26, 2015 1:23am
Quoting purplepips
The only way that a secret indicator can work is if it is able to detect the movement of the major players. If such indicator exist, than it is worth searching or building for. //// Let me ask you. Why would a major player decides to sell or buy at any particular price? What is the reason behind that? If you know, that is where the secret lies.
You seem to think that market movers act in a predictable fashion always and forever. Truth is, even the big players themselves do not know where price is going to go because the reality is that price is affected by a multitude of variables and factors. You would have to be able to literally see the future to accurately predict price. Even if you do find and exploit a major player's inefficiency, such a system is unlikely to last because market are always changing. This line of thinking is miles away from successful trading.
  • #116
  • Sep 7, 2015 9:36am Sep 7, 2015 9:36am
Quoting CrucialPoint
A Honest Reply to "Secret Indicators" {image} 1. You will never believe a black swan exist until you see one. No amount of rationality and logical reasoning will suffice. (Note: This statement also doesn't suggest that you should start believing, if you haven't seen one.) 2. If you know anyone successful (in any field of endeavor), it is because they know something that you don't. 3. Whenever you ask these individuals, they simply reply that they do such and such... but the truth is that they're simply being polite, instead of saying...
Hi CrucialPoint, I didn't know whether to post in your thread or here so I'm giving it a shot and post it here. Before i get to the point, i just want you to know that i'm not trying to get spoonfed. I'm just a trader that has started a journey in absorbing new knowledge about the market, and I'm trying to see it from your point of view.

I have stumbled upon some path that I am unable to pass. Earlier in your posts, you mentioned about the technical foundation of indicators- that most(if not all) have the same end result if you were to change the settings accordingly. It is easy to know what settings to use on sec-,min-,daily- and monthly chart. My only question to you is, how would one go about and change ones indicator-settings on a tick chart that you're fond of It is like renko and range bar, not dependent on time. I do however have some ideas how to get around that, but I want your input so i can confirm that the theory i have come up with is not way off.

I'd be grateful if you could point me in the right direction. I look forward to your reply!

Thanks in advance
Energy, frequency and vibration.
  • #117
  • Sep 7, 2015 10:05am Sep 7, 2015 10:05am
Quoting drammen
{quote} Hi CrucialPoint, I didn't know whether to post in your thread or here so I'm giving it a shot and post it here. Before i get to the point, i just want you to know that i'm not trying to get spoonfed. I'm just a trader that has started a journey in absorbing new knowledge about the market, and I'm trying to see it from your point of view. I have stumbled upon some path that I am unable to pass. Earlier in your posts, you mentioned about the technical foundation of indicators- that most(if not all) have the same end result if you were to change...
As I doubt very much he'll reply, here's my two cents, for analysis of a tick chart it seems no indicators (popular) can be used, it has to be a fundamental understanding of price movement, HH HL,time and price magnitude, but hey I'm no expert, the best in plying his route.
  • #118
  • Sep 7, 2015 10:18am Sep 7, 2015 10:18am
Quoting CrucialPoint
A Honest Reply to "Secret Indicators" {image} 1. You will never believe a black swan exist until you see one. No amount of rationality and logical reasoning will suffice. (Note: This statement also doesn't suggest that you should start believing, if you haven't seen one.) 2. If you know anyone successful (in any field of endeavor), it is because they know something that you don't. 3. Whenever you ask these individuals, they simply reply that they do such and such... but the truth is that they're simply being polite, instead of saying...
That's a good post
  • #119
  • Sep 7, 2015 11:36am Sep 7, 2015 11:36am
Quoting sinqua
{quote} As I doubt very much he'll reply, here's my two cents, for analysis of a tick chart it seems no indicators (popular) can be used, it has to be a fundamental understanding of price movement, HH HL,time and price magnitude, but hey I'm no expert, the best in plying his route.
Thank you for the contribution. I understand where you're coming from, i truly do and i do agree that we have to understand the fundamental factors for price movement. What im trying to do is dissecting the price movements behavior. Im trying to find the reasons as to what causes the HH HL. I believe CrucialPoint has pointed out a few times that's what his system does and i quote "...it's the measurement of the influx of money coming in and out, period." - CrucialPoint.

In other words: he has the equipment to analyse what causes the behavior. But he doesn't need to look at HH HL or SR, because the results of influx of money coming in and out is enough to take a decisions to trade. He may or may not respond to my post, but hey, if i give up that easily, then I may as well give up trading

I hope you understand my point and what im trying to do here
Energy, frequency and vibration.
  • #120
  • Sep 7, 2015 11:53am Sep 7, 2015 11:53am
Quoting drammen
{quote} Thank you for the contribution. I understand where you're coming from, i truly do and i do agree that we have to understand the fundamental factors for price movement. What im trying to do is dissecting the price movements behavior. Im trying to find the reasons as to what causes the HH HL. I believe CrucialPoint has pointed out a few times that's what his system does and i quote "...it's the measurement of the influx of money coming in and out, period." - CrucialPoint. In other words: he has the equipment to analyse what causes the behavior....
Oh in that case, if I were you I won't be here, I'd be on google, searching for everything on "influx" and how to apply it to price movement in FX. There are many ways to skin a cat, the hard part is done, you now know what you are looking for. Good luck.
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