Let's Trade Options | Page 519 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

BELLA SYSTEM. Let's try it, let's improve it! 118 replies

Let's Trade The News V 0.4 ! 479 replies

Any Options, Bull Options & Option Bit 39 replies

Let's Trade The News! 46 replies

Let a trade develop? 17 replies

Attachments: Let's Trade Options
Exit Attachments

Let's Trade Options

  • #10,361
  • Aug 25, 2015 3:44pm Aug 25, 2015 3:44pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Think my P&L has swung $3k (high to low) in the past two days, which is like 10x more than usual when I've got stuff neatly delta balanced ... . This is the exact kind of market in which dry powder is a necessary evil ... .
I'm thinking TastyTrade should have Karen the Uber Trader on in a few weeks ... . This movement probably "back doored" her setups ... . Not sure how you can work these kind of market conditions if you have to go flat by month end every month ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,362
  • Aug 25, 2015 3:49pm Aug 25, 2015 3:49pm
Jackson Hole jawboning begins Thursday, in all likelihood leading to a combing through by pundits of every word. If there are hints that the Fed is hesitant because of current market conditions, I expect some kind of rally on rampant speculation that a rate hike is not gonna happen this year ... . I've already read numerous "talking head" predictions that there'll be no hike in 2015, that it won't happen until March 2016, yada yada ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,363
  • Aug 25, 2015 4:01pm Aug 25, 2015 4:01pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
This movement probably "back doored" her setups ....
Just don't google "Back Door Bears", whatever you do....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,364
  • Aug 25, 2015 4:05pm Aug 25, 2015 4:05pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I've already read numerous "talking head" predictions that there'll be no hike in 2015, that it won't happen until March 2016, yada yada ... .
They all say the Fed will "lose all credibility" if they don't liftoff in Sept.....but, c'mon...who we kiddin here? Anyway, I have been putting on trades for the outlier upside runs if Sept is a no-go....cheap diagonals are my go-to in those cases.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,365
  • Aug 25, 2015 4:24pm Aug 25, 2015 4:24pm
Just noticed VXX spiked to $28 today, likely took me out of Oct $17/18 bull calls for my target at $1, we'll see - a 5 bagger , but I need to get another one on if it will kindly dip again - I like having that insurance in times like these...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,366
  • Aug 25, 2015 4:56pm Aug 25, 2015 4:56pm
Quoting The Fool
Just noticed VXX spiked to $28 today, likely took me out of Oct $17/18 bull calls for my target at $1, we'll see - a 5 bagger , but I need to get another one on if it will kindly dip again - I like having that insurance in times like these...
Waiting for that, also ... . A few quiet, modestly up days would probably do the trick ... . I'm thinking post-Jackson Hole ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,367
  • Aug 25, 2015 5:03pm Aug 25, 2015 5:03pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Waiting for that, also ... . A few quiet, modestly up days would probably do the trick ... . I'm thinking post-Jackson Hole ... .
yep, heavy vacay days running into Labor Day weekend, low volume, greener pastures in China, WTI bottomed maybe trending up a bit, VXX be back to $20 in no time.....maybe a trade there for the brave
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,368
  • Aug 25, 2015 5:11pm Aug 25, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting The Fool
maybe a trade there for the brave
maybe shop a 2/3 week puts diagonal, @ $19/18 or so, but short-term diags don't pay so well. Riskier - sell st call spreads....or maybe just go ahead and set your account on fire, just to watch it burn....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,369
  • Aug 25, 2015 5:12pm Aug 25, 2015 5:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yep, heavy vacay days running into Labor Day weekend, low volume, greener pastures in China, WTI bottomed maybe trending up a bit, VXX be back to $20 in no time.....maybe a trade there for the brave
I would like to have a few of those days where it languished around 16 again ... . Can't believe it was just last week ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,370
  • Aug 25, 2015 5:16pm Aug 25, 2015 5:16pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} maybe shop a 2/3 week puts diagonal, @ $19/18 or so, but short-term diags don't pay so well. Riskier - sell st call spreads....or maybe just go ahead and set your account on fire, just to watch it burn....
I've seen a couple of Dough trades shorting UVXY ... . I prefer working on the floor instead of trying to spackle the ceiling ... .

I'd have to have, like, totally, no other prospects to trade ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,371
  • Aug 25, 2015 5:28pm Aug 25, 2015 5:28pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I've seen a couple of Dough trades shorting UVXY ...... .
I went thru a spell of selling weekly UVXY put verts - the beauty is you can get nice premium with just a couple dte - but of course, the 1 loser out of 3 or 4 wipes you, if you even do that well. I will still look at that stuff if we are in a week with some known end-week vol-heavy event - NFP Fridays one that recurs....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,372
  • Aug 25, 2015 5:40pm Aug 25, 2015 5:40pm
the other thing one may try if those big vol end-weeks are lining up is just do VXX long calls (or long strangles) --- if you wait until late Wed or Thurs you can get in $1 or less otm strikes for pennies.......I lost many pennies that way but have had the occasional large win, too
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,373
  • Aug 25, 2015 5:45pm Aug 25, 2015 5:45pm
SPY bleeding out in the last minutes of the ex-period, bulls have had the shit kicked out of them and are afraid to play ball....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,374
  • Aug 25, 2015 6:23pm Aug 25, 2015 6:23pm
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/08/vix-soars/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,375
  • Aug 25, 2015 7:23pm Aug 25, 2015 7:23pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/08/vix-soars/
I wonder how much of the VIX movement is hedging (what the product was really intended for in the first place) versus pure speculation by traders who are attracted to its explosive movement ... . My guess is that a good deal of it is the latter, which is why I look skeptically on the significance of this "historic movement." Then again, this SPY move is similarly outsized ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,376
  • Aug 25, 2015 8:29pm Aug 25, 2015 8:29pm
Shanghai opens in a minute and I expect that shit to rally and /ES to rally overnight, SPY to gap up >$2 Wed
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,377
  • Aug 25, 2015 8:51pm Aug 25, 2015 8:51pm
short VIX....IVR for VXX up at 87%, the 10-day diagonal shown plays for a vix crash, a stawks rally into next week. Prolly a long shot - but it goes on for near $0 and is safe down to about $17.50

....now, when you are dealing with very wide iv swings such as the VIX derivatives show, you must take P/L models with a grain o salt, need to model the P/L m/l daily, as iv changes quickly, and plan trade management accordingly

....(these st diags often are not worth the risk, but with very elevated iv, you can put them on for free or small credit with just a low dte #)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-25_sv.png Size: 70 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,378
  • Aug 25, 2015 9:11pm Aug 25, 2015 9:11pm
the wider the time spread, the wider the profit spread - look for front month iv elevated over back month, so you can get in these wide spread diagonals (or if you're lucky, calendars) for free or small credit. The one shown is safe down to the year's low @ $15 +/-

backassardation? contangry? I can never remember which is which....the oi in those Nov puts is about 100:1 to the calls....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-25_vxx2.png Size: 69 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,379
  • Aug 25, 2015 9:26pm Aug 25, 2015 9:26pm
and so on
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-25_vxx3.png Size: 68 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,380
  • Aug 26, 2015 1:01am Aug 26, 2015 1:01am
doubt if you could fill at that mid, but there has been good volume out there, playing for mean reversion - $5 spread needs to make at least that mid to be worthwhile for all that time
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-25_UVXY.png Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-25_UVXY2.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
18 traders viewing now