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Help Me Find New Strategies

  • #21
  • Aug 21, 2015 5:23pm Aug 21, 2015 5:23pm
If you want to make money really, it must be based on mathematics to trade, go get the black scholes or formula kelly and try to use them
  • #22
  • Aug 22, 2015 6:08am Aug 22, 2015 6:08am
Quoting austinloyd
go get the black scholes

The Black-Scholes model is simply a (now very much superceded, and not very accurate) model for pricing options, unconnected with normal forex trading. Nobody without postgraduate mathematical qualifications is (or should be) trying to use the Black-Scholes equation!


Quoting austinloyd
or formula kelly

The Kelly Formula relates only to position-sizing, and is unsafe for forex trading as the position-sizes it predicates are recklessly big, when dealing with substantial "edges", and its necessary inputs also rest on the assumption of a level of statistical certainty which very few retail forex traders have about their trading methods.


Quoting austinloyd
If you want to make money really, it must be based on mathematics to trade

I don't disagree with that, at all, but familiarity with basic statistics and probability are what's needed, for confident trading. (All long-term, successful trading is about probability assessment, in a sense.) The Black Scholes and Kelly formulae aren't what's needed, at all.

For the areas of statistics and probability relevant to forex traders, this little book is more than adequate: "Profitability and Systematic Trading" by Michael Harris (Wiley, 2009).
  • #23
  • Aug 25, 2015 5:00am Aug 25, 2015 5:00am
Quoting austinloyd
If you want to make money really, it must be based on mathematics to trade, go get the black scholes or formula kelly and try to use them
Most of the Forex traders understand this fact that trading in the Forex is not easy and they will need a good trading system on which they can reply and using which their income will start growing.

This is also a reason why we have to test and use our own trading systems
Trading in Forex since 8 years
  • #24
  • Aug 26, 2015 7:18am Aug 26, 2015 7:18am
Hey burntwaffle

Check out my other posts on forex via my profile on Bollinger and keltner channels maybe of some good fortune for your trading, good luck.
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #25
  • Last Post: Aug 26, 2015 7:34am Aug 26, 2015 7:34am
Quoting Burntwaffle
Hey Guys, Im looking for a strategy that allows me to take at least 10 trades a week. Something in the region of a 70% success rate. Obviously we all want 100% but it doesnt exist. I guess the higher the better. And something straight forward, I like naked trading. I dont like my charts covered with indicators and oscillators. I dont mind one or two, but like 5 indicators is a bit too much for me. Ive been using Sam Seidens S&D strategy and I love it, I continue to use it but itd be nice to try maybe a scalping strategy or just something else...
Hi Burntwaffle,A good trading strategy has to be based on a logic that is consistent with the nature of markets. Therefore attempting to design a strategy while imposing arbitrary conditions like "at least 10 trades a week" or "70% success rate" does not make for good strategy design. I strongly suggest that you study historical prices across a wide range of markets and find out for yourself what fits your beliefs about the markets.
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