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  • #10,241
  • Aug 20, 2015 4:48am Aug 20, 2015 4:48am
Quoting The Fool
loaded the bfly above for a 35c entry, not gonna hit with /ES down 17 ... wtf?
I dunno ... . HSI off 1.77% ... . Oil eyeing $40 ... . EURUSD up .46% to 1.117 ... . Futures red ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,242
  • Aug 20, 2015 5:20am Aug 20, 2015 5:20am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Well, more conservative it is, but it's also far less fun when you get it right. I'm sitting on 4 ES 2000P's and with ES down about 12-15 points on where I sold them (2097-2100-ish) I'm in profit by a miserable $194. Not a lot of return for sitting on 8.4K's worth of puts!!! I don't much like this; at this rate I'd have been better off just selling a single ATM call. Or maybe that's my problem: too greedy and too impatient in equal measure.
Closed the puts for 55.25.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,243
  • Aug 20, 2015 6:34am Aug 20, 2015 6:34am
Out of Dec 105 AAPL puts for a small gain.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,244
  • Aug 20, 2015 9:18am Aug 20, 2015 9:18am
nice to see spoos break down on decent volume. I am out of SPY Sept5 $216/219 bear calls at ~80% of max profit - about 60c net, looking for the same on Sept5 $215/218's - will need more south, to below $205
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,245
  • Aug 20, 2015 10:11am Aug 20, 2015 10:11am
Quoting The Fool
I got out of FSLR Aug $49/$48.5 bear puts for about 10-15c net, need to check later, but the dip below $49 did the trick I bet. Now I need /CL to attack 40 bucks & help my Aug USO $13/15 strangle Bought 1k shares of NBG @ $0.77
left a lot on the table w/ FSLR, it at ~$48.5x now - but looking back, woulda done the same thing. USO weekly strangle a TL unless /CL can break below $40
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,246
  • Aug 20, 2015 10:16am Aug 20, 2015 10:16am
Quoting The Fool
nice to see spoos break down on decent volume. I am out of SPY Sept5 $216/219 bear calls at ~80% of max profit - about 60c net, looking for the same on Sept5 $215/218's - will need more south, to below $205
same exit for Sept5 $215/$218, bought out for 15c, about 80% of maxP. Left on for SPY bear call spreads now only Sept5 $214/$217, holding out for a similar profit close. Lotsa free margin now - another down day or 2 for SPY and I will be all dry powder by Monday.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,247
  • Aug 20, 2015 10:35am Aug 20, 2015 10:35am
I think equities go up from here, bonds go down.
EURUSD curiously strong, I'm hoping it's a squeeze.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,248
  • Aug 20, 2015 10:57am Aug 20, 2015 10:57am
Made a big mistake closing my puts too early.
I think yesterday's missed opportunity on CL is still messing with my head.
Such is life. No way around it, that's why trading is tough.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,249
  • Aug 20, 2015 11:12am Aug 20, 2015 11:12am
Quoting Boy Wonder
I think equities go up from here, bonds go down. EURUSD curiously strong, I'm hoping it's a squeeze.
nice volume on the SnP move down, but btfd is what it's programmed to do. I was looking at FXE & thinking of a bearish play, but I will wait on that. With so much CB intervention/meddling going on, currencies are hard to read, for me anyway. Easier money elsewhere....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,250
  • Edited 1:16pm Aug 20, 2015 12:55pm | Edited 1:16pm
Quoting The Fool
nice to see spoos break down on decent volume
I'm sitting at ~70% maxP for my last block of Sept5 $214/217 bear call verts.....tempted, but time is my friend....maybe I should look at IC'ing them down in the $19x,xx puts?

add: thought about sept5 $196/$193 bear puts for 65c, will wait and see what Friday shows
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,251
  • Aug 20, 2015 2:57pm Aug 20, 2015 2:57pm
OMG. Kind of a blood bath. The good thing about my index IC's -- virtually all the call sides are nearing worthless; the bad thing, the put sides ... . That being said, price remains well clear of the put sides of these since when I put them on I set them up delta neutral with the put sides several strikes below the 1SD in order to get that balance. Like TF said, I think time is on my side for those (unless the indices just totally fall apart ... ), and then I'll be rolling ... .

Those two SVXY short call verts I put on on Tuesday when price was at 95-ish are already nearing worthless. That being said, volatility could suddenly evaporate on dip buying and price could be right back at 94+ in short order ... . But with but 1 week to go for one and two weeks for the other, I again think time is on my side: we are not likely to see 98 in SVXY soon ... .

Finally got that FXE 112/115 short call vert filled for .39, but it filled at open, after which price cleared 110 ... .

Did get out of a couple of my more aggressive QQQ short call verts with short call strikes at 112 and 113 (these were rolls from early IC setup's when price was flopping back and forth across 111 ... ). Glad to see the back of those ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,252
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:02pm Aug 20, 2015 3:02pm
After hours ... . Looking at SPX500 (FXCM's SPY product which trades 24/5), price has broken the March 11th low and sits at 2028.2 ... .

I was frankly thinking Friday bounce as bears lock in profits ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,253
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:05pm Aug 20, 2015 3:05pm
What up ZS? Great to see some action hey? Near 2mio SPY shares traded today. I'm sorry I didn't have anything long to the put side to catch big pay. I tried to get that Oct SPY bfly I showed above but I'm pretty sure I was too cheap to fill it. I have VXX long call verts and a bfly that are in the money today but they are out to Oct so still lots of time to go on those, especially the bfly - it won't get juicy until near the end.

Still more Greek drama on tap...if NBG would drift up towards $1 I would sell Sept $1.5 calls against the 1k shares I have at $0.78. I like the idea of selling covered calls - I'm just too poor to do it on anything more than the cheapest stawks....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,254
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:07pm Aug 20, 2015 3:07pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I was frankly thinking Friday bounce as bears lock in profits ... .
well that would be by the book, huh? Maybe we're in new territory now, though. That channel will not last 4ever....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,255
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:28pm Aug 20, 2015 3:28pm
Quoting The Fool
What up ZS? Great to see some action hey? Near 2mio SPY shares traded today. I'm sorry I didn't have anything long to the put side to catch big pay. I tried to get that Oct SPY bfly I showed above but I'm pretty sure I was too cheap to fill it. I have VXX long call verts and a bfly that are in the money today but they are out to Oct so still lots of time to go on those, especially the bfly - it won't get juicy until near the end. Still more Greek drama on tap...if NBG would drift up towards $1 I would sell Sept $1.5 calls against the 1k shares I...
Lovin' it ... . Would like to add some index ETF trades here on the volatility, but the move's been quite large ... . Best to stand aside, let other folks do the heavy lifting and see what next week brings. Not big on doing trades on Fridays anyhow.

SPY was right at long-term support at the close. If that breaks, I assume that 197.5-ish is the next stop on any correction train:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPY S:R.jpg Size: 175 KB
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,256
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:34pm Aug 20, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting The Fool
What up ZS? Great to see some action hey? Near 2mio SPY shares traded today. I'm sorry I didn't have anything long to the put side to catch big pay. I tried to get that Oct SPY bfly I showed above but I'm pretty sure I was too cheap to fill it. I have VXX long call verts and a bfly that are in the money today but they are out to Oct so still lots of time to go on those, especially the bfly - it won't get juicy until near the end. Still more Greek drama on tap...if NBG would drift up towards $1 I would sell Sept $1.5 calls against the 1k shares I...
... on the long VIX. Lovin' the SVXY shorts I took ... . Amazed that I actually paid attention to SVXY's price for a change; most of the time I miss the ideal spot ... .

Greece: Had a feeling that Tsipras would have to resign ... . Poor little fella ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,257
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:39pm Aug 20, 2015 3:39pm
well Tsipras might look like Obama compared to some o the nutz that might take his place. suppose that fear might start to sink into the e-zone cash trade and you might finally see fiber get deflated some. My only play there really is FXE and I have not been able to really like what I see there but I will look again...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,258
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:41pm Aug 20, 2015 3:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well that would be by the book, huh? Maybe we're in new territory now, though. That channel will not last 4ever....
I could see a brief struggle to maintain 204, but this looks kind of panicked here ... .

Then again, the past several trading days have seen whippy shit between 206 and 210, so who the hell knows ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,259
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:47pm Aug 20, 2015 3:47pm
well, i'll be damned if Ima get my pecker caught in another nasty V-bottom. You let the Fed heads work the jawbone for a day or two and if the Sept ffr hike gets pushed off into Dec in the feeble bots' brainchips, we could be back at $210+ next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,260
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:53pm Aug 20, 2015 3:53pm
Quoting The Fool
well Tsipras might look like Obama compared to some o the nutz that might take his place. suppose that fear might start to sink into the e-zone cash trade and you might finally see fiber get deflated some. My only play there really is FXE and I have not been able to really like what I see there but I will look again...
Not a huge fan of FXE, but that's all we've got for a EURUSD proxy ... . I don't want to trade spot directly, since it offers virtually none of the advantages of options (time decay, volatility collapse, etc.).

A few articles have explained the dollar weakness as part of expectations that the likelihoood of a September rate hike has diminished in light of the latest FOMC minutes. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...10V1E020150820

Naturally, I'm fine if there is no September hike with respect to FXE ... . My plan is to space out several FXE short call verts from here to (I dunno, January, maybe March) before the Euro implodes, but the FXE expiries make that difficult ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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