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  • #10,221
  • Aug 18, 2015 11:39pm Aug 18, 2015 11:39pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Yep, always a trade-off between risk and reward. No way around it. Thinking about it, in a way selling naked is more conservative than selling spreads, because the high margin requirements of selling naked mean you can't sell so many; whereas the low margin requirement of selling spreads means you can go to town and get clobbered when (because it's always when) the u/l goes in the opposite direction to the one expected.
I also kind of reserve the nakeds for short strangling underlyings that I just can't get enough juice out of using an iron condor ... .

But that whole "undefined" risk thing with nakeds is somewhat illusory, since it assumes that you do nothing in the event of a breach of the naked, do nothing in the event of an assignment, and then proceed to let the underlying go to "0" (in the case of a short put breach) or to infinity (in the case of a short call breach) without doing anything to mitigate your loss. I mean, who the hell does that?

That being said, I recall watching TastyTrade during a live call in and a guy was a day out from expiry, in call, and was wondering what he should do. Tom commented that he had a small "mechanics problem," but you could tell by his face that he was thinking, "WTF?". So I guess there are people out there who really don't have a clue of what to do when a setup goes awry and those seemingly onerous margin requirements for nakeds are there for a reason.

But the assignment of the "undefined" label by the broker is just a way of their categorizing the trade for purposes of margin ... . Unfortunately, it's to the naked short trader's disadvantage.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,222
  • Aug 19, 2015 2:16am Aug 19, 2015 2:16am
SPY puts until October
  • #10,223
  • Aug 19, 2015 3:51am Aug 19, 2015 3:51am
Quoting stylinex
SPY puts until October
lol, brevity the sole of wit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,224
  • Aug 19, 2015 6:38am Aug 19, 2015 6:38am
Quoting stylinex
SPY puts until October
Putz until October ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,225
  • Aug 19, 2015 6:42am Aug 19, 2015 6:42am
http://www.marketpulse.com/20150818/...e-hike-timing/

I think it will go something like this:

Inserted Video
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,226
  • Aug 19, 2015 7:27am Aug 19, 2015 7:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} lol, brevity the sole of wit
LORD POLONIUS
This business is well ended.
My liege, and madam, to expostulate
What majesty should be, what duty is,
Why day is day, night night, and time is time,
Were nothing but to waste night, day and time.
Therefore, since brevity is the soul of wit,
And tediousness the limbs and outward flourishes,
I will be brief: your noble son is mad:
Mad call I it; for, to define true madness,
What is't but to be nothing else but mad?
But let that go.

  • #10,227
  • Aug 19, 2015 10:12am Aug 19, 2015 10:12am
wow, movement....well, it was just a matter of time. My accounts are greening up, even some of the debit spreads may have a chance if it be not vain to hope that the indices might slide more than one day running.....no word from the Fed heads, no doubt they will come dancing if things get too dire

.....oh, right, FOMC minutes on tap.....I have been lulled....well, since when can you expect anything but dove sounds?....but we'll see
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,228
  • Aug 19, 2015 1:19pm Aug 19, 2015 1:19pm
Quoting The Fool
.....oh, right, FOMC minutes on tap.....I have been lulled....well, since when can you expect anything but dove sounds?....but we'll see
Punch! Oh yeah...!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,229
  • Edited 6:14pm Aug 19, 2015 2:14pm | Edited 6:14pm
I got out of FSLR Aug $49/$48.5 bear puts for about 10-15c net, need to check later, but the dip below $49 did the trick I bet.

Now I need /CL to attack 40 bucks & help my Aug USO $13/15 strangle

Bought 1k shares of NBG @ $0.77, looking for 0.5g b4 Xmas....b4 Labor Day fine too
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,230
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:28pm Aug 19, 2015 5:28pm
I am gutted. This morning I was short 2 CL contracts from near the highs but I bottled it.
I've just seen it.
Pass the sick bucket.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,231
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:30pm Aug 19, 2015 5:30pm
EURUSD a great sell from here IMO.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,232
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:37pm Aug 19, 2015 5:37pm
Quite a bit of whippage today, but nothing closed out ... . A couple on the cusp ... . (One of which is that SVXY 98/101 Aug 28 expiry short call vert I put on yesterday, which is two coppers away from closing for a .05 db, but that thing can whip back above 95 in no time flat ... ).

IVR's sufficient for me in a couple of index ETF's, but DIA (the one with the highest IVR), is unworkable on the put side to get a delta neutral set-up, so I'll shoot for an Oct 2nd expiry IWM 105/108/124/127 iron condor for .74. Got quite a few odds and ends in QQQ; I thought about going for a set-up there, too, but will wait for stuff to close out before putting on more. SPY needs just a little more juice in it ... .

FXE/EURUSD experienced a little bounce here today, so I am (again) going to try to get a fill on an Oct 2nd 112/115 short call vert for .39 (maybe third time's the charm).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,233
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:39pm Aug 19, 2015 5:39pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
EURUSD a great sell from here IMO.
Hope the air doesn't go out of it between now and NY open ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,234
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:42pm Aug 19, 2015 5:42pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
As a short-term alternative to the broader index ETF's, shooting for a fill in XRT (S&P Retail) -- 87.5/90.5/102/105 Oct 2nd expiry for a .57 credit. The IVR is nothing to write home about (46 -- 52 Week TOS), but it beats the index ETF's for now ... . Trying to keep a minimum "trade cost" to portfolio balance on of between 10 and 15%, which can be tough if there is no volatility in my bread-and-butters to take advantage of ... .
Got filled on that XRT ... . Will take it off at 50% max profit ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,235
  • Aug 19, 2015 8:14pm Aug 19, 2015 8:14pm
Quoting The Fool
I got out of FSLR Aug $49/$48.5 bear puts for about 10-15c net, need to check later, but the dip below $49 did the trick I bet. Now I need /CL to attack 40 bucks & help my Aug USO $13/15 strangle Bought 1k shares of NBG @ $0.77, looking for 0.5g b4 Xmas....b4 Labor Day fine too
netted 10c on FSLR, need another hot leg down on /CL overnight to get out of USO with small gain at Thursday open
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,236
  • Edited Aug 20, 2015 12:07am Aug 19, 2015 11:51pm | Edited Aug 20, 2015 12:07am
CHK last traded >$15 3 months ago. Will the commodity rout run forever? Well, forever is a long time. But you can get a Jan 17 $15/$18 call vert for 23c debit. A $3 spread for 23c - risk $120 on a 5-lot to make >$1200. If natgas catches a spike this winter you could get out early....the Jan 16 b/e on the Jan 17 spread is $8.50
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,237
  • Edited 1:02am Aug 20, 2015 12:28am | Edited 1:02am
UNG not been able to trade above $15 since last Dec, now slipping under $13....somebody bought a huge pile of Oct $12 puts for 36c --- insurance? Other larger trades on the Oct calls way out there $20-$22 - but if natgas catches a pre-winter bounce in Sept, those 2c calls could double or more, I guess...

I'd look further out at cheap call verts or calendars, but prolly easier monee elsewhere....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,238
  • Aug 20, 2015 12:58am Aug 20, 2015 12:58am
time to make the donuts....an Oct SPY $216/$18 bear call vert funds the bfly shown exactly at 32c, super bear
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-19_spy1.png Size: 62 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,239
  • Aug 20, 2015 4:49am Aug 20, 2015 4:49am
loaded the bfly above for a 35c entry, not gonna hit with /ES down 17 ... wtf?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,240
  • Aug 20, 2015 6:40am Aug 20, 2015 6:40am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I'll shoot for an Oct 2nd expiry IWM 105/108/124/127 iron condor for .74. FXE/EURUSD experienced a little bounce here today, so I am (again) going to try to get a fill on an Oct 2nd 112/115 short call vert for .39 (maybe third time's the charm).
Don't think that IWM IC will see a fill unless we get yesterday's whippage. The FXE short call vert will probably go, though (finally).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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