Oh the AUDCAD one is really busy mate - here is my chart for that one. To be honest I'm not really a fan of CAD crosses - it tends to jump around a bit so I don't trade that one often.
{quote} It's at 50% retrace of second day. Not safe?
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Ah I see,
I don't enter at a 50% retrace of a day. I enter at 50% retrace of a move. If you look at some of the earlier posts where I have 50% retracements, you'll see it's based on price movement however long that is, not just the daily candle.
And remember, here is the Soros trade taken off 50% retracement on the 1hr chart (I posted it way back), then he added to position when price moved down again. If the big players are doing this, then so am I !!
{quote} Ah I see, I don't enter at a 50% retrace of a day. I enter at 50% retrace of a move. If you look at some of the earlier posts where I have 50% retracements, you'll see it's based on price movement however long that is, not just the daily candle. Cheers
So you are always interested in "fresh" zones on the Weekly chart? I've read quite a bit of different things on this matter. Sometimes people argue that markets have a long memory and the longer it goes back to more important the zone. I always try to look at Weekly zones that have been tested often. Could you talk about your view on this?
In addition, I'm still unsure how to spot valid signals... Do you take signals ON the zones? If so, what exactly do you look for? Simple pinbars or do you look at other candlestick patterns too? Or do you wait untill it has made a first move and then enter on the 50% retrace?
I've been looking at CHF/JPY reaction to trendline and it looks like this atm. It went in a very small range for a week. It diden't quite reach my support zone but this pair has been moving up strongly for years. How do you see this chart ?
{quote} Great! Did you already found an entry on the AUDJPY?
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Hi Dutch,
No I didn't enter that one - I was busy watching the price and wasn't convinced of an entry. It's got to be a terrific, obvious set ups for me to enter.
Thanks for starting this threath Pharley, very good way to watch the market ...
Have a day job, and this migth be relaxed way to get a few pips from the market.
Like you simple but effective way to trade with clean charts...
Thank you for your reply Pharley, So you are always interested in "fresh" zones on the Weekly chart? I've read quite a bit of different things on this matter. Sometimes people argue that markets have a long memory and the longer it goes back to more important the zone. I always try to look at Weekly zones that have been tested often. Could you talk about your view on this? In addition, I'm still unsure how to spot valid signals... Do you take signals ON the zones? If so, what exactly do you look for? Simple pinbars or do you look at other candlestick...
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Hi Tibovwh,
Yes it's true that forex does have a long memory and we look to the left of the chart at historical data to get a feeling of S/R areas on the long timeframe. In this case price had moved a long way from the early 2014 data and in fact had another swing upwards nearly 12 months later, which is much closer to current price, so I take the closer one. If it hadn't had another big move inbetween, then I'd be looking at the earlier data.
Now a difficult bit to get your head around, which is what I look for. And I suspect this is the main reason new traders find it all too hard and go back to indicators or lose and give up.
There isn't just 1 thing I look for when I'm looking for entries. I look at everything, but there are some key things I look out for.
One thing is momentum - how fast is the price moving towards a S/R area? Does it move fast and and does it slow down as it approaches. Are there doji's appearing, are there other candles with long downwards pointing wicks (when looking for a long at support),are there key candles appearing such as pins, engulfing, is there a head and shoulder pattern present, flag patterns. And where is all this happening n the market structure?
In short, I look at everything.
And that's the hard bit - it's not as simple as black and white. Perhaps that's why people use indicators because it's a yes or a no with those. But they're all lagging so I don't use them. Nothing is guaranteed, but you can put the odds in your favour by looking at what's happening on the charts.
As an analogy - does getting a University degree guarantee you a job? Certainly not, but it probably bumps up your chances of one. That applies to trades as well. When I'm working I primarily do master project scheduling using primavera 6 and MS Project. If I do a training course on those tools, does it guarantee me a job? No, but I might get an interview because I have some knowledge (apparently!) of the tools of the trade. If I have many years experience in actually doing the work using the tools and proved that I can do it, does it guarantee a job. No, but I'm likely to be further ahead in the game than someone who knows how to use the tools, but has minimal experience. Throughout the years of experience, I've come across lots of different types of projects in different industries in different countries. Not much surprises me any more and I know the tools inside out.
Trading is exactly the same. Exactly. Learn MT4, MT5 - whatever the platform is. That's the easier bit. The harder bit is the experience, and I (or anyone else) can't teach that. I can show examples, try and describe what I look for, but to try and condense years of looking at charts in to a few sentences is truly difficult.
All I know is that there are 2 key elements that put the odds in your favour as described above. That's price action and risk mgt. The reason is price action works in any market conditions and has proved itself to work over years and years. Risk mgt keeps you in the game and keeps your money safe.
I appreciate your answer very much. And I understand what you are saying. There is never a black or white situation. I know I need lots more screen time before I will be a good trader but I'm willing to put in the work!
So as far as the EURCAD trade goes, Is it the level indicated in the first chart you are looking at?
In addition, an update on my earlier posted CHFJPY trade that I had been stalking. It has moved as I expected and I will now look for retracement entry
