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  • #2,921
  • Edited 6:49am Aug 18, 2015 5:58am | Edited 6:49am
gbpcad m15 about +20
great fall of cci driven by volume on the news, stoch OB
this upsets me and I'm not sure whether to close or let go
because gbp still retains its strength...
what to do in such cases?
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edit
I went for lunch.
stopped out BE +5
Quoting friska
sell eurgbp SL@BE 4H {image} {image}
stopped out BE
nescentia necat
  • #2,922
  • Aug 18, 2015 6:51am Aug 18, 2015 6:51am
Quoting friska
gbpcad m15 about +20 great fall of cci driven by volume on the news, stoch OB this upsets me and I'm not sure whether to close or let go because gbp still retains its strength... what to do in such cases? {image} edit I went for lunch. stopped out BE +5
I would find similar situation earlier... and I would calculate what is more likely in statistical terms.

I admire U for ...how can you manage so many instrument ...
  • #2,923
  • Aug 18, 2015 7:11am Aug 18, 2015 7:11am
Quoting Aeb82
{quote} I would find similar situation earlier... and I would calculate what is more likely in statistical terms. I admire U for ...how can you manage so many instrument ...
interesting,
but referred to the behavior of the CCI, or the stop and go of the price ...?
try to explain me better ..

I would also like an opinion of MisterC,
that following a method based on volumes maybe met very often this type of situations volume news-retrace


believe me it's not so hard!! .. it is more a matter of history and archive ..
if you look at the market reading CSM before operate, in any form be it calculated, it will be different situations of strength / weakness x period of time.
Now, the analysis that you do now on GBPCAD for example, come in handy the next time gbp will be strong and cad weak.
just keep open the chart and update it in case of interest.
a job that I do at the end of the week (not always, i'm lazy) is to look at the weekly charts (it can tell us so much!) , and if you want,
update with new levels that we found during the week.
It is a kind of weekly report that takes a few minutes but you will save a lot in case the market is fast.
nescentia necat
  • #2,924
  • Aug 18, 2015 7:26am Aug 18, 2015 7:26am
Quoting friska
buy gbpcad /gbpaud +40 +20 +20 ongoing sell eurgbp SL@BE 4H {image} {image}
out gbpaud +60
nescentia necat
  • #2,925
  • Edited 7:52am Aug 18, 2015 7:36am | Edited 7:52am
Quoting friska
{quote}opinion of MisterC
Well mate, here's my take on it.

M15

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M5

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All news show heavy volume; it is what happens after that volume that deems if the volume was mostly on the sell side or mostly on the buy side. The M15 shows two climactic actions the news and the next move higher.

The idea of volume trading is that higher prices may attract sellers and lower prices may attract buyers so this puts the whole "trend is your friend" concept in a different perspective: The trend is your friend, until big money moves against it.

On the M5 you'll notice that after the news spike there was a flag; a trend continuation pattern and around the middle of the flag there was some activity (buying activity) that lead to the break of the flag: this was a good long entry. But when the 2nd climactic activity occurred on the highs: probable sellers, you should have closed your order.

You'll notice that after the 2nd climactic activity price was knocked sideways which means that sellers entered the market and now the report between supply and demand is balanced: market is ranging. What will happen next: only price will tell. The market can re-accumulate for another leg higher or the sideways action could be a build-up of shorts leading to a move lower.

Keep in mind that not all climactic action can lead to a reversal; as smart money builds positions in stages it could be just stopping volume...or not even a position build-up, but profit taking.

This is my 2 cents on it, hope it helps
  • #2,926
  • Aug 18, 2015 7:42am Aug 18, 2015 7:42am
Quoting friska
{quote} out gbpaud +60
Nice trading

I miss the action...since I started studying renkos heavily I haven't traded that much. Hope to get the hang of them really soon...I think my biggest problem is transitioning from what I learned on time charts / tick charts to the renko perspective...well, slowly but surely
  • #2,927
  • Aug 18, 2015 7:56am Aug 18, 2015 7:56am
Quoting MisterC
{quote} Well mate, here's my take on it. M15 {image} M5 {image} All news show heavy volume; it is what happens after that volume that deems if the volume was mostly on the sell side or mostly on the buy side. The M15 shows two climactic actions the news and the next move higher. The idea of volume trading is that higher prices may attract sellers and lower prices may attract buyers so this puts the whole "trend is your friend" concept in a different perspective: The trend is your friend, until big money moves against it. On the M5 you'll notice...
awesome.

Quoting MisterC
{quote} On the M5 you'll notice that after the news spike there was a flag; a trend continuation pattern and around the middle of the flag there was some activity (buying activity) that lead to the break of the flag: this was a good long entry. But when the 2nd climactic activity occurred on the highs: probable sellers, you should have closed your order. You'll notice that after the 2nd climactic activity price was knocked sideways which means that sellers entered the market and now the report between supply and demand is balanced: market is ranging. What will happen next: only price will tell. The market can re-accumulate for another leg higher or the sideways action could be a build-up of shorts leading to a move lower.
This was my entry,
and this should have been my logical reasoning.
saving me from give back 15 pips to the market.

I understand your reasoning on renko, but your view of market is very fascinating ... I hope you do not lose it.
nescentia necat
  • #2,928
  • Aug 18, 2015 8:16am Aug 18, 2015 8:16am
Quoting friska
{quote}your view of market is very fascinating
Thank you!

Quoting friska
{quote}I hope you do not lose it.
On the renkos I can not use the principles I use on time / tick charts...renkos are simpler but, and here's the interesting part, if learned properly can yield better / lower risk entries (as Dee has shown time after time after time).

I tried looking at time charts for analysis and entries on the renkos but it does not work; I got lucky with a few trades but it would not have been sustainable in the long run; it's either one or the other and for now I choose renkos

I do intend to also trade off time charts / tick charts with Volume, Wyckoff and PVSRA analysis in the future...I really like this style of trading but I need to put in more hours of work towards it aswell.
  • #2,929
  • Aug 18, 2015 8:54am Aug 18, 2015 8:54am
eurcad
It could become an interesting situation
4H
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nescentia necat
  • #2,930
  • Aug 18, 2015 2:29pm Aug 18, 2015 2:29pm
Quoting friska
{quote} interesting, but referred to the behavior of the CCI, or the stop and go of the price ...? try to explain me better .. .
In this specific situation I would expect higher prices ... CCI down but stoch OB.

and look in history ...it shows you what happened ... if stoch OB and CCI down then ....what happend with the price....went up or down ...etc.
This is what I meant when I was saying about statistic. how many times price went up and how many went down ...lets say 5 times up and 3 times down and U have your answer what to do in such cases.
  • #2,931
  • Aug 18, 2015 4:08pm Aug 18, 2015 4:08pm
Quoting friska
{quote} hehehe thanks!! I'm flattered by your opinion, but I do not have to teach anything here really ...I do not think up to it I try to do things as simple as possible (such as the name of this thread for that matter), tracing TL and levels quite obvious I think, and looking for entry on those. and I'm happy to share my results here and charts because here I went ahead, and I found people to me are of great help ... what I thought of several times really is it not better to open a journal, based mainly on this method, paving the way for everyone...

Hello Friska,
I also told you months ago about how I like your charts and the way you mark them.
I've been trading fow few months already with a technique that looks pretty much the same as yours, and I like this approach as it is really simple.
My only concern is how to enter the trades in the marked zones. How do you do so? Do you wait for certain price action at the levels, or just put a pending order there, or what is your entry approach? It should be interesting as you also handle very tight stop losses.

Many thanks for your input.

Best
  • #2,932
  • Aug 19, 2015 1:42am Aug 19, 2015 1:42am
Quoting Aeb82
{quote} In this specific situation I would expect higher prices ... CCI down but stoch OB. and look in history ...it shows you what happened ... if stoch OB and CCI down then ....what happend with the price....went up or down ...etc. This is what I meant when I was saying about statistic. how many times price went up and how many went down ...lets say 5 times up and 3 times down and U have your answer what to do in such cases.

right, I like the statistical approach
this is a good action I should do...
nescentia necat
  • #2,933
  • Aug 19, 2015 2:13am Aug 19, 2015 2:13am
Quoting cfabian
{quote} Hello Friska, I also told you months ago about how I like your charts and the way you mark them. I've been trading fow few months already with a technique that looks pretty much the same as yours, and I like this approach as it is really simple. My only concern is how to enter the trades in the marked zones. How do you do so? Do you wait for certain price action at the levels, or just put a pending order there, or what is your entry approach? It should be interesting as you also handle very tight stop losses. Many thanks for your input....
hi cfabian
really thx for that!!
the entry time is one of the things with I struggle more and that I consider most important, an aspect that I daily study and I try to always improve.
a perfect entry can afford to keep a close SL and thus limit the exposure of the position.
I mainly put orders. I have some difficult to press the button buy / sell and go!
analyzing the CSM opening LO, I create a 'list' of potentially interesting pairs.
most of the time there are no big surprises,
for example right now cad weak euro strong, if I look at the chart ec I posted yesterday does not surprise me this situation ..
strong uptrend on 4H, bounce on TL and reaction zone and up. the bravest could enter a buylimit on that level for a +40 this morning.
but is not my case. I use to looking for a rally base rally or a 'fight' zone that maybe creates a flag or a retest or a 123, I suggest a static moment for a subsequent recovery in the direction of the trend... placing an order at the break of this zone/candle.
like a 15m chart gbpcad from yesterday. ok it's a particular case, but we have a spike up, an 'accumulation' zone, and i placed a PO above that zone, bring at home some pips.
This is always better if supported by OB / OS areas, div, fibo etc., more confirmations and more confidence we have with the entry...
I hope I was clear enough, and I've given you a help or something useful to reason...


eurcad
4H/15m
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price have to break that level to attract my attention and get me to look for a PO
nescentia necat
  • #2,934
  • Aug 19, 2015 3:12am Aug 19, 2015 3:12am
FDAX +23 +35
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  • #2,935
  • Aug 19, 2015 3:59am Aug 19, 2015 3:59am
Took a scalp on Demo, just to settle the hunger for a trade . This is 3pip renko; I was also watching 6pip renko.

Thought I post it because of the analysis part...also, this is my first trade renko only, no time charts...it feels quite odd...

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Price started to change its slope by breaking trendlines. IMO, since renkos don't depend on time you need a change in the supply / demand report to break a trendline; it's not like on time charts when price can drift through a trendline during a ranging period. Anyway...price lost upward momentum (obvious divergences), made a LL, pulled back and offered a short opportunity. HTF renko stochs started sloping downward from OB.
  • #2,936
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:39am Aug 19, 2015 4:39am
dax out +54 +43 +30 +21
a little mess, and definitely not a nice entrance
but in profit...
Attached Image
nescentia necat
  • #2,937
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:41am Aug 19, 2015 4:41am
Quoting MisterC
Took a scalp on Demo, just to settle the hunger for a trade . This is 3pip renko; I was also watching 6pip renko. Thought I post it because of the analysis part...also, this is my first trade renko only, no time charts...it feels quite odd... {image} Price started to change its slope by breaking trendlines. IMO, since renkos don't depend on time you need a change in the supply / demand report to break a trendline; it's not like on time charts when price can drift through a trendline during a ranging period. Anyway...price lost upward momentum...
..a clean work, well done!
nescentia necat
  • #2,938
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:46am Aug 19, 2015 4:46am
Quoting friska
..a clean work, well done!
thanks!

Quoting friska
dax out +54 +43 +30 +21 a little mess, and definitely not a nice entrance but in profit... {image}
Nice pips . Are those TMA bands you are using?? Do they work well with renko charts??
  • #2,939
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:51am Aug 19, 2015 4:51am
Quoting MisterC
{quote} thanks! {quote} Nice pips . Are those TMA bands you are using?? Do they work well with renko charts??
yes TMA,
usually I do not use,
in the past I was fond of COG..but is an indicator quite complex to understand and have given up.
I am now trying a throw on a couple of indicators that I found interesting,
if works I'll upgrade here in 3d with the process ... but I never believed in the 'no brain trade ...'
nescentia necat
  • #2,940
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:57am Aug 19, 2015 4:57am
Quoting friska
{quote}I never believed in the 'no brain trade ...'
When I first started trading it took me a while to learn that lesson!!

I was also playing around with dynamic SR from the Ichimoku indicator: the standard Red and Blue MAs, don't know their names...

They have potential but it is also a work in progress.
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