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  • #10,141
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:00am Aug 14, 2015 7:00am
Quoting The Fool
woohoo, /CL $41.35 tonight, boy was I wrong about that Summer rally...how low can it go...?
Yeah interestingly both RB and CL were very weak from about midnight UK time but CL has recovered whereas RB has not. I think that multi-decade extreme in the CL/RB ratio is interesting right here.
That said I've seen it said on SA that there are going to be maybe 20 rigs added to teh total when it's released later today and if so we could get a vicious drop down to $40. That's what peeps are suggesting.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,142
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:03am Aug 14, 2015 7:03am
Thing about CL is I get the arguments about the oversupply not going away because everyone's engaged in a fight to the death (so-to-speak) but then I just read somewhere that in the 1980s there was a 25% global oversupply whereas today there's a 3% global oversupply.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,143
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:29am Aug 14, 2015 7:29am
Quoting Boy Wonder
Thing about CL is I get the arguments about the oversupply not going away because everyone's engaged in a fight to the death (so-to-speak) but then I just read somewhere that in the 1980s there was a 25% global oversupply whereas today there's a 3% global oversupply.
sure, then in '08-'09 wti dropped from $140+ to <$35 in about 6-8 months - was that all about supply/demand for the physical?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,144
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:43am Aug 14, 2015 7:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} sure, then in '08-'09 wti dropped from $140+ to <$35 in about 6-8 months - was that all about supply/demand for the physical?
Demand must've taken a huge hit because of the GFC; but how much I don't know. What I remember is all the chatter about floating storage and that pulled the front end up towards the back end. But more than that I don't know.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,145
  • Aug 14, 2015 9:52am Aug 14, 2015 9:52am
Chop, chop, chopping around...

Well you can always find interesting stuff to read.

Reading...
Recognizing When You Are In Trading Tilt


And some more:
from Dave Landry, 10 rules

my favorite is
8. Although a good defense is crucial, a good offense is often your best defense. Pick the best and leave the rest. Do not take mediocre trades and/or try to make something happen in less than ideal conditions. “Don’t invent trades.” (Peter Mauthe)

Sitting on my hands... had a good week, good month so far. Today one b/e trade, I gave up to decipher the possible direction after the open. Could be some opp in last hour. If one presents itself -> ok, if not -> I don't care.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,146
  • Edited 6:12pm Aug 14, 2015 3:05pm | Edited 6:12pm
Quoting StrayDog
my favorite is 8. Although a good defense is crucial, a good offense is often your best defense. Pick the best and leave the rest. Do not take mediocre trades and/or try to make something happen in less than ideal conditions. Dont invent trades. (Peter Mauthe) Sitting on my hands... had a good week, good month so far. Today one b/e trade, I gave up to decipher the possible direction after the open. Could be some opp in last hour. If one presents itself -> ok, if not -> I don't care.
good ideas....I'm in nothing new, watching for SnP to float up to the top of its ancient channel....looking for $212+....then I will think about selling more SPY call spreads
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,147
  • Aug 14, 2015 4:33pm Aug 14, 2015 4:33pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think it will be unlikely not to see DXY retest its highs before long; but parity, I don't know but if it fails at 1.12, then a move back down to the lows of this year seems reasonable.
I agree ... . I just have a general notion of "down" ... . But I want to get stuff on here (at EURUSD 1.10 plus) before it moves in a major fashion, something that is likely to come with an interest rate hike. Parity is only, like, 1100 pips from here for EURUSD (currently at 1.1106) and that could happen in a relative hurry, as could a descent to the YTD low. The mid-Dec to late Jan descent from 1.25 to 1.10 involved at 1500 pip drop in a month and a half, after which it bottomed at the yearly low in mid-March. All-in-all, a 2100 pip move in about three months ... . Yeesh.

Didn't get filled on a second attempt at the FXE short call vert for Oct 2nd expiration ... . There's always next week; hope price is still there for me ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,148
  • Aug 14, 2015 4:49pm Aug 14, 2015 4:49pm
Quoting StrayDog
Chop, chop, chopping around... Well you can always find interesting stuff to read. Reading... Recognizing When You Are In Trading Tilt And some more: from Dave Landry, 10 rules my favorite is 8. Although a good defense is crucial, a good offense is often your best defense. Pick the best and leave the rest. Do not take mediocre trades and/or try to make something happen in less...
I like the "don't invent trades." Seems like some of the newer folks on Dough are "inventing trades" (Shark-Jeev; still doin' the weird-ass setups), deviating from the basics, just 'cuz they've got to get something on to increase their number of occurrences. The point of a high number of occurrences is to have a high number of "good" occurrences so that the statistical likelihood of profit is higher. Throwing junk in the suitcase just makes it heavier ... .

And then there are a few of the old Dough traders who are just plain trigger-happy, like Mexican Tony, who seems to put on mechanical SPX trades without regard to volatility (seems to do a ton of "Don't Tell Tom" trades); he's trying to "make something happen in less than ideal conditions."

* * *

Today, didn't get anything put on; didn't get anything taken off either ... . Kinda loaded up to 45 DTE anyhoo, which is about the farthest out I like to go with most stuff. Will just have to hand-sit and wait for later expiries to open in October to set up additional stuff ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,149
  • Aug 14, 2015 4:57pm Aug 14, 2015 4:57pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Will just have to hand-sit and wait for later expiries to open in October to set up additional stuff ... .
Guess Oct 2nd weeklies will be open in the index ETF's ... . Will have a gander at those early next week ... . Ain't much volatility to take advantage of right now, though.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,150
  • Aug 14, 2015 6:23pm Aug 14, 2015 6:23pm
USD weakness looks likely to deepen a bit, I'd bet we see fiber move up to > $1.13, late Aug may be the last of that, though, if there's any whiff of a Sept ffr hike. So, near-term (1-2 week) rise for wti back above $45 sounds good, too.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/strang...180910126.html

"We're really in uncharted waters-I don't ever remember anything like this," commented Stephen Schork, author of the widely read Schork Report. "I would be surprised if we didn't get some sort of major move at the last minute. I either think we'll hit $39, or rise to $45 or $46. It's a roll of the dice."

Yet some traders think the dice may be loaded, with a surge more likely than a drop.

According to iiTrader's chief market strategist, Bill Baruch, the heavy holdings in bearish options will likely send crude much higher in Monday's session. That's because many of the traders with winning positions on their hands will want to lock in profits without needing to sell back the options they'd bought (which would necessitate losing out on 10 cents per barrel due to the bid/ask spread). Alternately, those traders who do simply exit their positions will sell the options to a market maker, forcing that party to buy crude oil futures to hedge.

"The exiting of those puts will spark volume in the market to the upside," Baruch told CNBC.

So why might oil fall instead? Well, with so much money on the line, some options holders may sell the futures in order to increase the potential value of their holdings. That could lead to outsized selling pressure.

After Monday, Schork strongly expects the crude oil slide to continue. But what will happen that day itself is up in the air.

"We're not trading fundamentals-we're just trading action in the market," Schork said. "This is really just high-stakes gambling."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,151
  • Aug 15, 2015 12:59am Aug 15, 2015 12:59am
Late Summer demand fall off, Jackson Hole jacks up the USD, JY turns out the hawk, gonna be epic

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-...145523193.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,152
  • Aug 15, 2015 1:41am Aug 15, 2015 1:41am
with USO sitting at $14 even, a weekly $13/$15 long strangle comes to mind - gets on for 8c or so, we'll see Monday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-14_USO1.png Size: 35 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,153
  • Aug 15, 2015 2:58am Aug 15, 2015 2:58am
a shot at a winter wti bottom, a Nov USO $13/12/10 bwb gets on for 1c, maxP for a perfect expiry is 75c, safe to $11 - about wti $34....a 10-lot shown
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-15_uso3.png Size: 42 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,154
  • Aug 15, 2015 1:59pm Aug 15, 2015 1:59pm
someday .... USO Jan/Apr $18 calls calendar debits $0.28 to make $0.90+, or roll into more short calls in the 3 months after Jan expiry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-15USO1.png Size: 42 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,155
  • Aug 15, 2015 2:52pm Aug 15, 2015 2:52pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I like the "don't invent trades." Seems like some of the newer folks on Dough are "inventing trades" (Shark-Jeev; still doin' the weird-ass setups), deviating from the basics, just 'cuz they've got to get something on to increase their number of occurrences. The point of a high number of occurrences is to have a high number of "good" occurrences so that the statistical likelihood of profit is higher. Throwing junk in the suitcase just makes it heavier ... . .. .
Absolutely. You need a bunch of good opps, so you can choose the best among the good. Many people make that over-trading mistake when then can't find good ops. If you are bored - read a book, walk away... just do something else, because the trading edge isn't there. Over time, I developed the patience needed for waiting for the good entry (almost )... still working on patience needed for better exits.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,156
  • Aug 15, 2015 2:59pm Aug 15, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting The Fool
... That's because many of the traders with winning positions on their hands will want to lock in profits without needing to sell back the options they'd bought (which would necessitate losing out on 10 cents per barrel due to the bid/ask spread). Alternately, those traders who do simply exit their positions will sell the options to a market maker, forcing that party to buy crude oil futures to hedge. ...
Yes, futures options expiry is BEFORE underlying futures expire. So, current Sep /CL contract expire on Aug 21st, but Sep /CL futures options expire on Monday, Aug 17. Sometimes you got a short covering rally on option expiry.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,157
  • Aug 15, 2015 6:05pm Aug 15, 2015 6:05pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yes, futures options expiry is BEFORE underlying futures expire. So, current Sep /CL contract expire on Aug 21st, but Sep /CL futures options expire on Monday, Aug 17. Sometimes you got a short covering rally on option expiry.
weekly USO $13/$15 strangle needs "only" a $1 move to b/e.....but $1 USO is about $3 for wti....a lot to ask but doable
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,158
  • Aug 15, 2015 11:49pm Aug 15, 2015 11:49pm
Quoting The Fool
with USO sitting at $14 even, a weekly $13/$15 long strangle comes to mind - gets on for 8c or so, we'll see Monday {image}
My thoughts exactly ... . Although Market Measures has a segment on long strangles (they poo-pah the crap out of them), this may be one of those rare instances where you're looking for a pop outside the expected move, the direction of which is, well, kind of unknown.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,159
  • Aug 16, 2015 12:02am Aug 16, 2015 12:02am
idk, one of my goals has been to wean myself off short-term, gambler trades like the USO strangle. Ergo, a steady diet of SPY credit spreads. But, if I see a chance on something I still will throw small change at it - for 8c a 6-8 lot would be about my speed. Not sold on it though, we'll see how much /CL moves pre-rth Monday.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,160
  • Aug 16, 2015 12:25am Aug 16, 2015 12:25am
Quoting The Fool
weekly USO $13/$15 strangle needs "only" a $1 move to b/e.....but $1 USO is about $3 for wti....a lot to ask but doable
maybe not so much to ask, USO weekly candles w R>$2 pretty common - If you wanted to spend about the same amount on a 2-week strangle, you'd have to widen to Aug4 $12.5/$15.5 - that would be 11c + comms but you'd get a little more time to run
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-15usooo.png Size: 110 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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