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Support and Resistance Method - Pharley

  • #341
  • Aug 13, 2015 6:41pm Aug 13, 2015 6:41pm
CHFJPY

126 RN + Resistance on Daily chart. (Unfortunatly not on weekly). Confluence with 200 EMA. Trend has been long for years.

Can we consider 11 Aug as a bullish bar?
12 Aug is an inside bar - A very small range one also.

Break of 12 Aug IB would coincide with trendline break. But ideally I think 11 Aug high is safer to trade ?

I'm looking closely for a break north ! Do you agree ?

Best,
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  • #342
  • Aug 14, 2015 2:19am Aug 14, 2015 2:19am
Quoting tibovwh
Hi all, I am following this thread closely and combining insights from TMS method also that I have been learning. So the indicator on the chart you can ignore safely. I got into EURJPY trade with 4 positions so far and another limit buy order on the break of swing high. (See pic below) If it doesn't break I still have some pending buy orders on further retracement. On the Weekly / Daily chart is there a possible AB=CD ? I see partial PT at 141 but a lot of potential above with next Resistance 150 ? Best, {image}
Hi Tibovwh,

Thanks for your posts. However, I just don't trade like this at all and some of the things you've put on I have no idea what you're talking about. What's a PT, a RN etc. And I don't look for AB=CD etc etc.

Charts - oh I like them empty - I don't even use MAs. My approach is very, very simple and when I see charts with lines and squiggles all over them, I normally don't even look. I like to see price plus S/R. Everything else for me is just cluttering up the screen.

But if it's working for you that's great - my old eyeballs can't take the pain!

Cheers
  • #343
  • Aug 14, 2015 2:27am Aug 14, 2015 2:27am
Quoting pharley
{quote} Hi Tibovwh, Thanks for your posts. However, I just don't trade like this at all and some of the things you've put on I have no idea what you're talking about. What's a PT, a RN etc. And I don't look for AB=CD etc etc. Charts - oh I like them empty - I don't even use MAs. My approach is very, very simple and when I see charts with lines and squiggles all over them, I normally don't even look. I like to see price plus S/R. Everything else for me is just cluttering up the screen. But if it's working for you that's great - my old eyeballs can't...
Hi pharley,I agree that simple chart is the best.I myself trade mostly based on PA and S/R.Each one of us has our own system, as long as it makes money, why not?Happy green pips!
  • #344
  • Edited 3:45am Aug 14, 2015 2:30am | Edited 3:45am
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} Hi pharley,I agree that simple chart is the best.I myself trade mostly based on PA and S/R.Each one of us has our own system, as long as it makes money, why not?Happy green pips!
Yes that's right mate - everyone is different and if something is working for someone, then go for it and good luck. I just prefer to keep it simple like yourself.

But I used to have charts like that - full of indies & MA's, now honestly, if I see them I don't even look as I just can't see the price clearly.

Cheers
  • #345
  • Aug 14, 2015 5:00am Aug 14, 2015 5:00am
On EURUSD, pin bar observed at key level suggesting resistance has changed to support.
Entry can be made at 50% retrace of the pin bar.
See weekly, daily and 4hrs charts for my analysis.

Pharley - thoughts please?

SL - red line
Entry - blue line
Target - green line
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  • #346
  • Aug 14, 2015 5:14am Aug 14, 2015 5:14am
Another one I see swinging on weekly S/R level is USDCAD
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  • #347
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:44am Aug 14, 2015 7:44am
Quoting aaeran
On EURUSD, pin bar observed at key level suggesting resistance has changed to support. Entry can be made at 50% retrace of the pin bar. See weekly, daily and 4hrs charts for my analysis. Pharley - thoughts please? SL - red line Entry - blue line Target - green line {image} {image} {image}
Hi aaeran

Things are a little slow this morning on the charts on London session perhaps US will bring more activity this afternoon

No pin on my charts on H4, that's the problem with H4 varies greatly with brokers time, but nonetheless I see where you're coming from
  • #348
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:47am Aug 14, 2015 7:47am
pharley's EURJPY trade is just hanging currently
  • #349
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:57am Aug 14, 2015 7:57am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Hi aaeran Things are a little slow this morning on the charts on London session perhaps US will bring more activity this afternoon No pin on my charts on H4, that's the problem with H4 varies greatly with brokers time, but nonetheless I see where you're coming from
Hi Rover....I agree that charts vary greatly between brokers. Do you have pin on daily which I was referring to?
  • #350
  • Edited 9:53am Aug 14, 2015 9:43am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting aaeran
{quote} Hi Rover....I agree that charts vary greatly between brokers. Do you have pin on daily which I was referring to?
Sorry aaeran only just seen your post.
Yes I have a sort of a pin but a bit difficult to see your chart as, for some reason, the Daily and the Weekly won't expand
  • #351
  • Aug 14, 2015 10:32am Aug 14, 2015 10:32am
Hello Pharley,
Thanks so much for starting this thread. Your trading style interests me so much and hope to learn more from you. Any advice on this NJ set up...i took it on !hr chart...just want to crosscheck if am doing the right thing. I seem to have many S/r lines...do you think those are ok...took them off weekly chart...
Thanks in advance for your input and thank you once again for sharing your way of trading
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  • #352
  • Aug 14, 2015 3:51pm Aug 14, 2015 3:51pm
The idea of adding, scaling in, instead of, scaling out, is correct...proven to work positively on your bottom line.
Scaling out, which means , once in profit, take out half (or any part), and continue with "money from the markets",is very common, but works against your bottom line....it just makes you "feel better..."

Why it´s wrong?: because you make sure you take any initial loss with a full load, but your best target is only reached with half or less.

Bill Williams , in his second book, has a system that would add positions, based on several indicators, sometimes 20 times....It would multiply the winners.It failed on choppy markets.
Overall profitable...
The idea is to take out all the juice from a trend....
  • #353
  • Aug 14, 2015 4:07pm Aug 14, 2015 4:07pm
The biggest risk to this stategy....is the Big Boys with their stop hunting machines.
They can read the stop zones, ( so called "liquidity pools"), and send their programmed robots to hit them, that is the liquidity they need, to push the market in the direction they want...
6 Big Banks own 70% of the FOREX volume(you can Google the exact numbers), and they do manipulate....addd broker slippage (manipulation), news spikes (manipulation), and you get the perfect retail meat served on the plate for the Big Boys.... day in, day out..
What I try, is to enter where everybody has the stop...(obvious places).
Maybe, people using this strategy, could add that, to their arsenal of triggers...:nerd:

Heres an Aussie 4 H chart, notice the stop runs I marked, just befroe every big swing....it happens on every time frame, the smaller the more it happens...market hits the last majour swing where retaliers are ususally "trailing", by just a few pips (it costs them money and effort to do that)...
Then it flies away, with the retail money...
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  • #354
  • Aug 14, 2015 4:42pm Aug 14, 2015 4:42pm
Quoting cuchuflito
The biggest risk to this stategy....is the Big Boys with their stop hunting machines. They can read the stop zones, ( so called "liquidity pools"), and send their programmed robots to hit them, that is the liquidity they need, to push the market in the direction they want... 6 Big Banks own 70% of the FOREX volume(you can Google the exact numbers), and they do manipulate....addd broker slippage (manipulation), news spikes (manipulation), and you get the perfect retail meat served on the plate for the Big Boys.... day in, day out.....
Hi all - wow there are lots of messages and comments. I'll try to get through them.

Cuchuflito - thanks for your comments. Note that the risk is only the risk you're willing to take and I start initially with half my normal risk - normally 3%, then 6% for further trades. I could use 1% then 2% or anything.

I understand what you mean by SL hunts - that's one of the reason I moved away from market maker brokers to ECN and haven't had a problem with that since moving. Sure there can still be some swings that take out stops by moving just that few pips extra, but that's why I normally wait for confirmation of a move, good PA candles/set up appearing etc.

Yep there is risk in any method of trading, so the idea is to minimise risk. When I have trade numbers 2, 3, 4 etc in place, normally all my risk from earlier trades is taken off the table as SL is place at BE or better, thereby locking in profits. Actually on the last run, I think by T3 and T4, even if price comes back to hit SL, T1 and T2 profits would have more than covered losses of T3 and T4 so I still end up with a gain. It's crucial to manage your risk so you've never overexposed.

Cheers
  • #355
  • Aug 14, 2015 5:00pm Aug 14, 2015 5:00pm
Quoting aaeran
On EURUSD, pin bar observed at key level suggesting resistance has changed to support. Entry can be made at 50% retrace of the pin bar. See weekly, daily and 4hrs charts for my analysis. Pharley - thoughts please? SL - red line Entry - blue line Target - green line {image} {image} {image}
Hi Aaeran,

I don't have that pin appearing on my 4 hr chart - must be different server times. But on yours it looks interesting and sure the target is fine. It's probably better to try and enter off major S/R areas - see daily and 4hr charts below for an entry after price touch a lower rising trend line/channel. This is the type of thing I look for - in this example, price came back to within a whisker of SL, but then pulled away and would be in profit by about 200 pips by now. Remember to really analyse those weekly and daily charts to try and find the major S/R areas to get trades from.Good experience though!

In terms of a continuation trade taking 50% retracements to get in, have a look at the third pic below. Ideally what I want to see is price moving above a previous swing high - in this case it hasn't so I'd not take that one. It may still work out just fine - you never know! But by taking these types of retracements trades after price has moved higher, you're putting the odds further in your favour that price will continue on its move upwards. Hope that explains what I see there.

Cheers
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  • #356
  • Aug 14, 2015 5:08pm Aug 14, 2015 5:08pm
Quoting aaeran
Another one I see swinging on weekly S/R level is USDCAD {image} {image}
Hi,

Yes that USDCAD is hanging around a resistance turned support off way back on the monthly chart at 1.306 - could be interesting to watch if it breaks away northwards!
  • #357
  • Aug 14, 2015 5:09pm Aug 14, 2015 5:09pm
Quoting rover99x
pharley's EURJPY trade is just hanging currently
Hi Rover - yeah hanging, hanging. Not much happening for me on the charts just yet. Mind you I only normally do some analysis tomorrow (Sunday) and haven't checked through them yet. I'm hanging out to see a good channel trade again - oh I like those!
  • #358
  • Aug 14, 2015 5:26pm Aug 14, 2015 5:26pm
Quoting nogames2014
Hello Pharley, Thanks so much for starting this thread. Your trading style interests me so much and hope to learn more from you. Any advice on this NJ set up...i took it on !hr chart...just want to crosscheck if am doing the right thing. I seem to have many S/r lines...do you think those are ok...took them off weekly chart... Thanks in advance for your input and thank you once again for sharing your way of trading {image}
Hi nogames,

Thanks for the question. I don't normally trade off the 1 hr charts, but have posted some things below - a weekly, 4hr and 1 hr chart. You can see the lines I've drawn on those for major S/R - I can't see really where your lines are coming from. Just start with a blank chart on the weekly and identify the major S/R areas that price is currently near. Most often I don't bother with ones further away until price moves a fair way.

I see a slight channel there and perhaps if yo're going to trade the 1hr, then wait until price gets to either side of the channel and wait for a confirmation signal of price turning. These signals are better off the longer timeframe such as daily - I normally try to identify good confirmation candles from the daily chart before moving down to 4hr charts for entry.

Cheers
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  • #359
  • Edited 6:11pm Aug 14, 2015 5:48pm | Edited 6:11pm
Risk - I normally risk 3% to 6%, but sometimes up to 8% when I'm trading (always half on the first trade), but you could use 1% and 2% or 3% for example. The good runs I'm looking for will still make around 20% with the lower risk figures. The idea is to stay in the game so you're able to trade. Also, if a SL hunt comes along, you're only losing a small amount that you're comfortable with. We can't control what the brokers do, but we can control how much we would lose. I've been SL hunted before with market maker brokers, and I didn't like it at all !

So now the risk mgt side of things is very much a core part of how I trade. Once I realised that for say 4% risk you can achieve gains of 30% to 60% in a single run, that's the way I went and I'm just sticking to it. Took me a while to find it!

There's always a method that everyone can find that they're happy with. From my experience I see accounts blown up and people leave forex because of exactly one thing - the risk. Just using too much (I've done it myself a couple of times!). Also the patience and discipline - just got to have it.

When I was trading as a newbie, I would read similar things to what I've just said above, and think "yeah yeah, I'll get around to that", then completely forget it and carry on trading how I wanted with too much leverage and no risk mgt. I wish I could get hold of myself from about 8 years ago and say this - "there are heaps of methods that work, just learn one, but the most important thing to learn is how to manage the risk".

Happy trades everyone!
  • #360
  • Aug 15, 2015 8:16am Aug 15, 2015 8:16am
Quoting pharley
Risk - I normally risk 3% to 6%, but sometimes up to 8% when I'm trading (always half on the first trade), but you could use 1% and 2% or 3% for example. The good runs I'm looking for will still make around 20% with the lower risk figures. The idea is to stay in the game so you're able to trade. Also, if a SL hunt comes along, you're only losing a small amount that you're comfortable with. We can't control what the brokers do, but we can control how much we would lose. I've been SL hunted before with market maker brokers, and I didn't like it at...
Nicely put pharley Thanks
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