Oil and Natural Gas

For those who wonder where is the actual floor price ... $5 plus transportation costs.

Below that price all producers are paying you to take their oil, and they will not persist in doing that forever.

The price where no producers are making a loss is around $30, and some (most?) companies have hedging in place to tide them over the current strains.

Therefore in a scenario of global over-supply the stable price of oil is currently around $20 ... IMHO (my guess)

It seems to me more dawnward movement is comming today so i will close my long soon but i expect this week a close above 44$ so i will enter long at lower level if reached

Watch equities. If they move higher crude is supported. If not, oh well longs who bet against the trend.

I closed my long at 44.20 because price action looked like we are going to go lower and we still can but i won't short it for now because it reached a many year bottom and it might be different than usual here

I agree it is tough to short now that is has made a long bearish move. But that doesn't mean to me it is a good enough reason to go long.

More like time to sit and watch and wait for spots to go ... short again.

well OPEC decides to raise its 2015 forecast of world oil demand growth by 90k bpd. That is adding to the bearish mode.

Hi guys any thoughts on which direction is the light crude oil heading as it has reach the lowest at 42

It will reach 40$ i'm pretty positive, then i don't know, but 34$ i consider for a hard bottom, this week tho i expect a close above 44$ and currently i have no open positions on crude i shorted gold in the morning, so overall i will be looking for a buy around 43$ and a sell around 45$, something like that is my plan

cool thanks atom3 I am new been on demo account for nearly 8 months now and still struggling a bit, but I get there

looks like the bears are taking another run right now, this may see a new low

Oh yea big time!

Brent is still resisting, the difference between the two seems to be growing much to my annoyance!

There was something about a Genscape Report release that stated more oil storage. That is pushing prices down I suppose.

That and China yuan devaluation acknowledging their economy continues to slow a lot therefore lower energy needs.

A couple of days old but sometimes real reactions are delayed.

4 hour is looking rather divergent to me.......perhaps this will be the bottom (for now at least)​

Seriously? 4 hour bar that completed at 10am NYTime is a big azz red candle. Current candle is also red and price is closer to the bottom than the top. That's for sure. It could change in a heartbeat but I don't see any slowing currently. Even if it does - the trend is down.

Yes I'm talking about BCOUSD its quite divergent (in my admittedly amateur opinion) every time the MACD looks like this there's a change of direction (short term)​
Its been doing some damage to my account

Overall it seems we are going for a test of 40$ but now i think to try a small buy, actually this week there is a good chance for a close above 44$ so i wouldn't sell right now

Looks like the Indiana refinery will be out for almost a month so its possible EIA stocks will be affected by my calculations that's almost 3m barrels a week not getting processed​

Partial shutdown although the biggest unit at the facility:

Great Lakes Gas Prices Jump After Partial Refinery Shutdown
(ABC News)

Oil and gas industry watchers said Wednesday prices at the pump have jumped across the Great Lakes region because of the unexpected, partial shutdown of a large Indiana oil refinery, and those increases could continue.

According to GasBuddy.com, the most affected states are Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Illinois, but others, including Minnesota and Wisconsin, are also seeing increases.

"It's a big deal," said Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddy's senior petroleum analyst. "It's the region's largest refinery made up of multiple units, and this is the largest unit. ... The market is certainly (experiencing) some panic buying, and that's represented in retail prices."

The BP Whiting Refinery in northern Indiana shut down the largest of three crude distillation units Saturday for what the company calls "unscheduled repair work," according to a statement. BP said the rest of the refinery is operating at reduced production.

Dearborn-based AAA Michigan, which surveys prices at 2,800 Michigan gas stations, said Wednesday the statewide average was about $2.58 a gallon, about 10 cents more than Tuesday's average. GasBuddy.com said some stations were well above that by Wednesday afternoon, flirting with the $3 mark.

The price spikes come after many industry analysts forecast significant drops. GasBuddy recently predicted decreases to accelerate from Labor Day through the fall, with ample supplies on hand.

"I believe this refinery issue to be a speed bump albeit a large speed bump on the road to lower prices," DeHaan said. "I still expect gas prices to come down ... and, as we approach Christmas, could still knock on the door of $2 a gallon."