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Sam Seiden's supply and demand - Does it work?

  • #81
  • Aug 13, 2015 1:20am Aug 13, 2015 1:20am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Thanks for your comments but I maintain what I said. It's all hindsight and especially: pareidolia ==> a basic human instinct to see patterns where none exist
I agree the human instinct: see patterns

BUT who says they do no exist ?
Somebody has "tested" the demand lines and lost money or someone's inability to convert market messages (pure buyer and seller generated price action) to a positve cash flow means that the patterns does not exist ?

Is it not a pattern that somebody buys a product a lot and the price goes higher and when there is no more sellers left the price stops to go higer and often starts to sink. On the chartd this can be seen in very very clear patterns.

After all the key thing is what are you going to do with the information you see or do not see.

Do not except the patterns are like exact signals to buy or sell. No, they are just information and knowledge. It is a trader's job to combine different market inputs to a succesfull buy and sell signals.

But of course if you are a God then just buy bottom and sell high
  • #82
  • Aug 13, 2015 2:32am Aug 13, 2015 2:32am
Quoting TickSeeker
{quote} I agree the human instinct: see patterns BUT who says they do no exist ? Somebody has "tested" the demand lines and lost money or someone's inability to convert market messages (pure buyer and seller generated price action) to a positve cash flow means that the patterns does not exist ? Is it not a pattern that somebody buys a product a lot and the price goes higher and when there is no more sellers left the price stops to go higer and often starts to sink. On the chartd this can be seen in very very clear patterns. After all the key thing...
Hi,

IMO if they are subject to interpretation they are not reliable.
Perhaps they can be used as part of a decision making, however ANYTHING can be used for that purpose.
In the end you no better off using these patterns than flipping a coin.
What's important is not a decision to buy or sell based on some subjective reasoning; what's important is what happens after a bet is made.
The analysis is the least important.
  • #83
  • Aug 13, 2015 4:29am Aug 13, 2015 4:29am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Hi, IMO if they are subject to interpretation they are not reliable. Perhaps they can be used as part of a decision making, however ANYTHING can be used for that purpose. In the end you no better off using these patterns than flipping a coin. What's important is not a decision to buy or sell based on some subjective reasoning; what's important is what happens after a bet is made. The analysis is the least important.
Everything in trading is subject to interpretation. There is no right or wrong (black and white). Everything is up to how do you interpret. This is the skill what all traders are seraching for.

But you are definitely right that everything can be used for trading but only in the right hands.

People often blame some specific trading methods that they do not work but the reality is that they do not work for them. This does not mean that it wont work for others.

OR how do you explain that I have been making money out of suply/demand and support/resitance levels for a very long time ?
  • #84
  • Aug 13, 2015 4:37am Aug 13, 2015 4:37am
Quoting TickSeeker
{quote} Everything in trading is subject to interpretation. There is no right or wrong (black and white). Everything is up to how do you interpret. This is the skill what all traders are seraching for. But you are definitely right that everything can be used for trading but only in the right hands. People often blame some specific trading methods that they do not work but the reality is that they do not work for them. This does not mean that it wont work for others. OR how do you explain that I have been making money out of suply/demand and support/resitance...

If that is the case I contend that you are doing something beneficial that has nothing to do with S/D & S/R levels.
  • #85
  • Edited 5:10am Aug 13, 2015 4:57am | Edited 5:10am
I see this conversation is valuable.

Can you please give me an example which shows that S/D does not exist and they cannot be traded ?

Was it really just "random" that the eur/usd stoped yesterday when it hit 1.1200 area ?

EDIT:
And how about if in my past life I have been trading in the very big bank currency trading desk creating those levels and saw many times when after opening the position the other sharks follow and the level holds because of increasing demand and starts lifting the markets up ?

  • #86
  • Edited 5:30am Aug 13, 2015 5:14am | Edited 5:30am
Quoting TickSeeker
I see this conversation is valuable. Can you please give me an example which shows that S/D does not exist and they cannot be traded ? Was it really just "random" that the eur/usd stoped yesterday when it hit 1.1200 area ?
Yes. That is indeed a typical example.
For any pattern that worked as "predicted", there are dozens that failed.
pareidolia is a real b&%ch (:
  • #87
  • Aug 13, 2015 5:54am Aug 13, 2015 5:54am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Yes. That is indeed a typical example. For any pattern that worked as "predicted", there are dozens that failed. pareidolia is a real b&%ch (:
You are one of the best posters on here.fortunately or unfortunately, most people won't listen
  • #88
  • Aug 13, 2015 5:59am Aug 13, 2015 5:59am
Let me put this in other way.

If somebody can prove that some method is a 40% failure does it mean, that it is not a reliable pattern to trade because it does fails ?
  • #89
  • Aug 13, 2015 6:26am Aug 13, 2015 6:26am
Wow, this thread still pops up from time to time. Trading Supply & Demand or Support and Resistance are concepts. People that successfully trade these levels are leaving lots of important information out. TRUST ME. If you don't understand the markets from session to session, day to day or news event to news event, you can draw all the levels you want on a chart, you will never, EVER be able to successfully trade them. Embrace the concept but you have to put the time in learning lots of other things not on the chart. It's been said many times by others and I will repeat it. Don't ever pay to learn this shit. Don't be a sucker. Put the screen time in and you will begin to grasp what's going on.
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #90
  • Aug 13, 2015 6:32am Aug 13, 2015 6:32am
JoeNY, very well said. This is how it goes. Everything works in right hands. S/D & S/R as so many other methods are never buy/sell signals. They are just knowledge what you use in your trading system.
  • #91
  • Aug 13, 2015 6:50am Aug 13, 2015 6:50am
Quoting TickSeeker
Let me put this in other way. If somebody can prove that some method is a 40% failure does it mean, that it is not a reliable pattern to trade because it does fails ?
40 % ?
Are you sure?
Patterns are subjective therefore it's impossible to place a hard value on the success rate.
IMO a better approach is as follows.
An analogy:
You are walking in the country side on a hot and sunny day.
You come to a lake
You think the water should be warm for a nice swim
You jump in.
And now you are drowning.
You may curse yourself for following some "old and trusted signal", but the point is: how do you get out alive?
  • #92
  • Aug 13, 2015 7:12am Aug 13, 2015 7:12am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} 40 % ? Are you sure? Patterns are subjective therefore it's impossible to place a hard value on the success rate. IMO a better approach is as follows. An analogy: You are walking in the country side on a hot and sunny day. You come to a lake You think the water should be warm for a nice swim You jump in. And now you are drowning. You may curse yourself for following some "old and trusted signal", but the point is: how do you get out alive?
Yes I am as sure as the 40% is. Game of the propabilities.

Subjective yes but based on the behaviour of buyers and sellers. What else the price is than that ?
Markets has to be subjective if they don't they don't work because everybody knows the end result.

We are trading the price which is generated by the buyers and sellers. it is not a God, magical people form the space or anything else.

If you are a manufacturer of popular and sexy fancy watches and you see it is soon going to be out of the stock, don't you see there any demand and change to sell another stock of it ?

Or if you see the price just started to bounce from demand level as it has been doing 60% last 10 years in this kind of situations ?

What comes to your drowning example I say it is stupid to go to the markets if you are not prepared

---

Oh, but now there is coming some news out (after 15 minutes) so have to start to do something with that information
  • #93
  • Aug 13, 2015 7:32am Aug 13, 2015 7:32am
Quoting TickSeeker
{quote} Yes I am as sure as the 40% is. Game of the propabilities. Subjective yes but based on the behaviour of buyers and sellers. What else the price is than that ? Markets has to be subjective if they don't they don't work because everybody knows the end result. We are trading the price which is generated by the buyers and sellers. it is not a God, magical people form the space or anything else. If you are a manufacturer of popular and sexy fancy watches and you see it is soon going to be out of the stock, don't you see there any demand and change...

"Or if you see the price just started to bounce from demand level as it has been doing 60% last 10 years in this kind of situations ?"

There is absolutely no reason that this holds true in the present.


If, by "prepared" you mean: jump in and have a contingency plan.
Then, I agree...
  • #94
  • Aug 13, 2015 10:27am Aug 13, 2015 10:27am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} "Or if you see the price just started to bounce from demand level as it has been doing 60% last 10 years in this kind of situations ?" There is absolutely no reason that this holds true in the present. If, by "prepared" you mean: jump in and have a contingency plan. Then, I agree...
There is no absolutely no reason that level holds or the watches will sell ?!?

Heh heh ! Now you are kidding... or it seemse there may be a reason too why someone does not do a buck in these markets

Prepared means, you know your risks until you enter and IF the risk comes to reality you know what you are going to loose. In advance before you enter. You manage it and don't get panic. It is part of the game to lose.

btw. That was beautiful http://protrader.club/charts/ts3302.jpg

Im done for the day. Have a nice trading !
  • #95
  • Feb 15, 2016 11:45pm Feb 15, 2016 11:45pm
Hi guys, thanks for the discussion here. I'm a data analyst formerly of one of the FANG's, just started getting into the markets over the past couple of months. Even outside of Seiden's work, I've seen similar concepts floating around outside of his nomenclature.

As you all know, behind any chart is a dataset. I'm looking into building a model to algorithmically ID some of these support and resistance levels. Anybody here who's really well versed in this version of "supply/demand", who feels they have a sophisticated ability to call these levels per this discussion, who might be interested in sharing what you know about the strategy and helping look into this, I'd give access to whatever I come up with. Let me know and we'll take it from there-

J
  • #96
  • Jan 31, 2017 12:56pm Jan 31, 2017 12:56pm
I know my life is forever changed because of Sam Seiden. Discovered his work a couple weeks ago and BAM! The missing tool has been discovered. Wow. Everyone stop your chatter and pay attention to this man. He absolutely knows what he is taking about. Take only dynamic setups. Learn how to play with multiple timeframes. Pair it up with BBands and a few other tools. Nailing these SUPER duper precision entry points. Sam Seiden is my hero! And I learned all his stuff for free on youtube.
  • #97
  • Mar 13, 2017 5:36pm Mar 13, 2017 5:36pm
Quoting BDBaby
I know my life is forever changed because of Sam Seiden. Discovered his work a couple weeks ago and BAM! The missing tool has been discovered. Wow. Everyone stop your chatter and pay attention to this man. He absolutely knows what he is taking about. Take only dynamic setups. Learn how to play with multiple timeframes. Pair it up with BBands and a few other tools. Nailing these SUPER duper precision entry points. Sam Seiden is my hero! And I learned all his stuff for free on youtube.
could u share a few charts?:d please?
  • #98
  • Mar 25, 2017 6:14am Mar 25, 2017 6:14am
If you really want to see where those supply and demand levels are then look at the actual bank orders. There are a couple of websites like efxplus that show them. But there not free. Or alternatively goto forexlive which have order levels.
  • #99
  • Mar 29, 2017 8:01am Mar 29, 2017 8:01am
Quoting CrazyHomer
If you really want to see where those supply and demand levels are then look at the actual bank orders. There are a couple of websites like efxplus that show them. But there not free. Or alternatively goto forexlive which have order levels.
That won't help much. Efxnews.com provides various institutional order informations inclduing major bank orders and options levels. Try one month 1$ evaluation. It doesn't help. If it helps, why big banks get stopped out in the trading all the time? As you know they can access all the fancy and expensive systems to see major orders. To be honest, i don't personally believe we can see bank orders by seeing candles. Sam insists orders waiting weeks or even months till get filled but it somewhat sounds nonsense to me....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #100
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:23pm Apr 2, 2017 6:23pm
If you have already have understanding of SS's teachings around Supply and Demand and want to start investigating this more, take a look at this thread and the website it points to. This is part of a much bigger project I have been undertaking that looks at identifying supply and demand zones for high profitability trading opportunities. The approach is not straight forward and it takes time to get to grips with, but I think there is a lot here that will give you valuable insights into exactly how supply and demand actually works. SS makes it look easy, but there is more too it.

I agree with one poster above, that higher time frame trends are important to get the best trades. However, ranging conditions in the immediate time frame are also good for this type of trading, so long as there is the necessary profit margins available. You do need to be able to take some losses in order to get the bigger wins. It is a game of probabilities and you need to consider the longer term profitability, not just the outcome of each individual trade.
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