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vsa with Malcolm

  • #26,981
  • Aug 12, 2015 6:21pm Aug 12, 2015 6:21pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} commodity pairs like CAD and AUD seem to be lining up for some strengthening moves
Most obvious right now against the US$ and the Pound but do you see what I see?
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,982
  • Aug 12, 2015 6:33pm Aug 12, 2015 6:33pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Too early to tell and for the moment I am neutral but I suspect we may be in for a move up from here at least to somewhere in the $48 to $50 area.
$43.75 key level for bulls. If they can take and hold this level this week we will be seeing somewhere in the $47.50 to $49.50 zone (most likely next week).
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,983
  • Aug 13, 2015 1:00am Aug 13, 2015 1:00am
But demand in China (2nd largest consumer) is expected to fall.

OPEC not cutting production.

Now even Iran pumping in their oil.

So overall there is more supply than demand.

So Pres, it is you against all these factors.
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #26,984
  • Edited 10:15am Aug 13, 2015 4:55am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting Vcv13
But demand in China (2nd largest consumer) is expected to fall. OPEC not cutting production. Now even Iran pumping in their oil. So overall there is more supply than demand. So Pres, it is you against all these factors.
That's OK. I'm not long on Oil yet. Even the weakest markets need retraces for the controlling side to re-build their orders to replace ones closed for profit.

I may be wrong it does happen (just ask my wife ). Just sharing what I am seeing currently which can change. The markets will lead the way and I will follow.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,985
  • Aug 13, 2015 10:51am Aug 13, 2015 10:51am
Quoting pres78
{quote} That's OK. I'm not long on Oil yet. Even the weakest markets need retraces for the controlling side to re-build their orders to replace ones closed for profit. I may be wrong it does happen (just ask my wife ). Just sharing what I am seeing currently which can change. The markets will lead the way and I will follow.
Should also add that as I am flat on Oil at the moment there is no way I am taking any new longer term shorts from where we are now. I would if the market stays weak consider 2 options for longer term shorts.

  1. Weak retrace into the $48 to $52 zone (rough numbers)
  2. Break of key support at $42, a move down away with a weakening return to show support has become resistance.

I would go long from anywhere above $42 (especially above $43.75) if bulls show control.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,986
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:56am Aug 14, 2015 7:56am
Daily close and volume on Oil will be very interesting after that crazy market open downward (but immediately reversed) move seen last evening. Possible shake out perhaps?

As always time and the markets will tell.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,987
  • Aug 14, 2015 8:38am Aug 14, 2015 8:38am
That key $42 level on Oil has provided some great support today. Nothing long term yet but grabbing a few pips on some longs based on that key support and PA into it.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,988
  • Aug 14, 2015 10:01am Aug 14, 2015 10:01am
No big surprise that Oil saw some supply come in at the S turned R level around $42.85.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,989
  • Aug 15, 2015 1:21pm Aug 15, 2015 1:21pm
High volume bar served as support
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  • #26,990
  • Aug 18, 2015 7:56am Aug 18, 2015 7:56am
Quoting Vcv13
But demand in China (2nd largest consumer) is expected to fall. OPEC not cutting production. Now even Iran pumping in their oil. So overall there is more supply than demand. So Pres, it is you against all these factors.
Several days later and the news is the same. Oil and the commodity pairs are weak. Oil hit a 6 year low . The CDN $ hit an 11 year low against the US $. All signs and all news say sell Oil, sell commodity pairs like the CDN $.

It is times like these when I take notice. When everything you read is telling you that now is a great time to buy or sell ANYTHING... News and fear drives the herd. It's true in stocks, it's true in FX, it's true in anything that people invest their hard earned money in.

Now as I said I could be wrong and Oil may just continue to drop right off the page. We may not get any kind of a retrace, we may not be seeing a possible change in the near term trend but as I said when everyone is telling me I should be selling. I get nervous being a seller.

Nothing has changed for me yet. I am currently flat and waiting before I take any longer term positions on Oil, AUD and CAD pairs. If I am right these changes in trend take time to play out, however I am still seeing Oil, AUD and CAD strength building if even only for some short to mid term retraces.

OK back to sleep everyone!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,991
  • Aug 18, 2015 11:10am Aug 18, 2015 11:10am
EURUSD Daily chart starting to look very interesting to me. Let's see how today's Daily bar finishes up.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,992
  • Aug 18, 2015 1:07pm Aug 18, 2015 1:07pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Several days later and the news is the same. Oil and the commodity pairs are weak. Oil hit a 6 year low . The CDN $ hit an 11 year low against the US $. All signs and all news say sell Oil, sell commodity pairs like the CDN $. It is times like these when I take notice. When everything you read is telling you that now is a great time to buy or sell ANYTHING... News and fear drives the herd. It's true in stocks, it's true in FX, it's true in anything that people invest their hard earned money in. Now as I said I could be wrong and Oil may...

Agree
Trading 24/h
  • #26,993
  • Aug 18, 2015 1:08pm Aug 18, 2015 1:08pm
Quoting pres78
EURUSD Daily chart starting to look very interesting to me. Let's see how today's Daily bar finishes up.
I can feel ur emotions with ur msg.

green pips, ticks or anything you want.


Do it
Trading 24/h
  • #26,994
  • Aug 18, 2015 9:53pm Aug 18, 2015 9:53pm
Quoting pres78
EURUSD Daily chart starting to look very interesting to me. Let's see how today's Daily bar finishes up.
I didn't take the trade but it was a text book VZA trade in hindsight. The green line is the lower boundary of one hour high volume zone from Aug 17th. A dogi formed at the green line on volume equals (maybe higher than) the previous bar with a much narrower spread. This is a clear sign of rejection by the lower boundary. A short entry can be made just below the low of the dogi bar.
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  • #26,995
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:44am Aug 19, 2015 5:44am
I was told recently that one of the main significances of 'Hidden Gaps' is that the market takes off so rapidly in one direction e.g. up, that not all of the buy orders could be filled at the supply area, so price will come back down to this area later in order for more orders to be filled be for moving off.

Do any HG traders recognise this to be true and if so could they elaborate on this slightly or point me towards some reading material. I've read 1-3 of WRBs on strategylab and HG's journal on another forum. Cheers.
"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #26,996
  • Aug 19, 2015 8:56am Aug 19, 2015 8:56am
Quoting pooh123
{quote} I didn't take the trade but it was a text book VZA trade in hindsight. The green line is the lower boundary of one hour high volume zone from Aug 17th. A dogi formed at the green line on volume equals (maybe higher than) the previous bar with a much narrower spread. This is a clear sign of rejection by the lower boundary. A short entry can be made just below the low of the dogi bar. {image}
Volume at volume, SM active again where they were before. The cycle continues day after day.

Lovely.

Not text book though, as the VZA text book hasn't been written yet .
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,997
  • Aug 19, 2015 10:46am Aug 19, 2015 10:46am
there was some text book stuff on USDCAD though
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #26,998
  • Edited 12:26pm Aug 19, 2015 11:38am | Edited 12:26pm
Quoting Vcv13
there was some text book stuff on USDCAD though
Personally I took a 15min chart long at 1.3090. Off 1 hr zone high from yesterday / high of 15 min zone today. Confluence anyone!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,999
  • Aug 20, 2015 12:39am Aug 20, 2015 12:39am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Off 1 hr zone high from yesterday {image}

I think your 1H day's high zone seems to be working, I have this newfound love for lines & I'll have to make this part of my analysis (for added confirmation).
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #27,000
  • Aug 20, 2015 7:46am Aug 20, 2015 7:46am
Quoting Vcv13
{quote} I think your 1H day's high zone seems to be working, I have this newfound love for lines & I'll have to make this part of my analysis (for added confirmation).
Yes it works as well now as it did years ago when I first started tinkering with what became VZA.

Take a look at the EURUSD 1hr chart. Where did we find support today at LO? HMMM?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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