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Let's Trade Options

  • #10,101
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:46pm Aug 11, 2015 11:46pm
UWTI, no options on it - but it's cheap, gets a lot of daily trade. Looking at the 1-day, 2-day range, pretty common to see some 20c moves per day, 40c in a week. So you buy 1,000 shares, catch a 40c move, and you're out with $400. Cheaper to trade equities - $9.99 I think in this TDA account each side. Much cheaper than options. 1,000 share trade ties up $1200 of buy power, just like a 6-lot $2 credit spread. But no comms. No theta. No gamma. Looks like it's due for a rev split soon, play it while you can....if you ever get a chance to go long, that is.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-11_UWTI.png Size: 84 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,102
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:55pm Aug 11, 2015 11:55pm
Quoting The Fool
if you ever get a chance to go long, that is.....
/CL now $42.9x, where he gonna bounce? $40 even? scary round number....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,103
  • Aug 12, 2015 12:18am Aug 12, 2015 12:18am
100 shares long UWTI hedges the 10-lot long call diagonal deathslide; the puts diagonal provides some protection if the shares move down. Jan/April - with luck you get Jan right on the calls diagonal for good profit and hang on to the UWTI shares for a wti rally into the Spring
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-12_usodd.png Size: 68 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,104
  • Aug 12, 2015 12:39am Aug 12, 2015 12:39am
Quoting The Fool
UWTI, looks like it's due for a rev split soon, play it while you can....if you ever get a chance to go long, that is.....
rev split...idk...it's a cash cow (if it ain't broke, don't fix it)....~75mio shares/day avg, 140mio today.....they may just let it run.....I'm not sure if there are rules imposed in this regard?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,105
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:31am Aug 12, 2015 2:31am
Hi TF... well the problem with leveraged etfs that track futures is that they are mainly for daytrading, i.e. they lose value over time. That effect is visible on USO also. There is a good tt video about that, I have posted the link before. Futures contango and all.

There are instruments where is often better to trade them directly, if you can catch the fast move.

Re /ES:

"The S&P 500 shows a compression pattern, with lower highs and higher lows since early July. Momentum will likely follow whichever way this pattern finally expands. Right now, the upside requires a rally above 2108 while the downside needs a selloff through Friday's low at 2062." - Alan Farley

Totaly agree with this guy.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,106
  • Aug 12, 2015 4:08am Aug 12, 2015 4:08am
Quoting StrayDog
Hi TF... well the problem with leveraged etfs that track futures is that they are mainly for daytrading, i.e. they lose value over time. That effect is visible on USO also. There is a good tt video about that, I have posted the link before. Futures contango and all. There are instruments where is often better to trade them directly, if you can catch the fast move. Re /ES: "The S&P 500 shows a compression pattern, with lower highs and higher lows since early July. Momentum will likely follow whichever way this pattern finally expands. Right now,...
Where are you following Alan Farley SD? I have one of his books - http://www.amazon.co.uk/Master-Swing.../dp/0071363092

I would be happier taking short term longs in ES if/when AAPL hits my target at around 105.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,107
  • Aug 12, 2015 6:27am Aug 12, 2015 6:27am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Where are you following Alan Farley SD?
Nowhere I got an email from my friend, and it was there, among other things.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,108
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:23am Aug 12, 2015 7:23am
I have placed short orders for SPX and NQ, via CFDs, before the open. SPX missed my entry by 3 points... OK...

NQ CFD missed the entry by half a point... mofo 0.5 points. It is 30+ points bellow now. I never had luck in trading. Sitting on my hands now. Psychology is a large part of trading, do not trade when you are frustrated... I have a good month so far, and will protect my gains. Like tennis players, who have to "defend" every point on ATP list, we the traders have to defend our gains, IMO. I wasn't aggressive on a day when you must be aggressive.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,109
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:33am Aug 12, 2015 7:33am
Quoting StrayDog
I have placed short orders for SPX and NQ, via CFDs, before the open. SPX missed my entry by 3 points... OK... NQ CFD missed the entry by half a point... mofo 0.5 points. It is 30+ points bellow now. I never had luck in trading. Sitting on my hands now. Psychology is a large part of trading, do not trade when you are frustrated... I have a good month so far, and will protect my gains. Like tennis players, who have to "defend" every point on ATP list, we the traders have to defend our gains, IMO. I wasn't aggressive on a day when you must be aggressive....
no sweat, SDawg, the mofo will be there tomorrow. I wasn't aggressive, either....overslept & missed the open. But it's ok, things are going my way. I'm starting to take the first SPY spreads off, buying out Sept5 $216/$219 for 20c to net 52c....if it fills.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,110
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:35am Aug 12, 2015 7:35am
Quoting StrayDog
Hi TF... well the problem with leveraged etfs that track futures is that they are mainly for daytrading,
I'm sure that's the case with heavy volume on UWTI
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,111
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:00am Aug 12, 2015 8:00am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Nowhere I got an email from my friend, and it was there, among other things.
OK thanks.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,112
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:15am Aug 12, 2015 8:15am
Quoting The Fool
starting to take the first SPY spreads off, buying out Sept5 $216/$219 for 20c to net 52c....if it fills.
missed by a copper, I need $205.60 or so....patience. Thought about IC'ing against some Sept5 call spreads, down around say $192/$189 for 32c or so, will wait on that, too
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,113
  • Edited 8:35am Aug 12, 2015 8:23am | Edited 8:35am
Shorted this pullback on /NQ, small entry on 4460... a 61.8 fib retrace of today move.

edit
Mistake, a fib retrace of last move down... wtf... from 4484 (4480 on futures) to day low
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,114
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:42am Aug 12, 2015 8:42am
CL feels like a watched pot...never boils.
Got a feeling though sooner or later it's going to rally about $8 in probably 3 or 4 sessions.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,115
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:46am Aug 12, 2015 8:46am
Quoting StrayDog
Shorted this pullback on /NQ, small entry on 4460...
Took a whooping 5 points on it, it will probably make a lower low now.

Add-on
Nas100 CFD 15m chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ-15m2.PNG Size: 165 KB


That arrow is the place that I want to short. You can see why - former support, now resistance, simple like that.
I missed that by 0.5 points - PENNY WISE AND POUND FOOLISH, I am tired as hell...

For entering on a pullback -> the right fib would be like this, on whole daily move, look how the fucker is going down from fib 38.2 retrace (pink line) of the daily move. It is 4470 on CFDs, so about 4465 on futures.

Yeah, impatience, 10 points WAS on the table, ah SD, you need a break from this shit.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,116
  • Aug 12, 2015 9:01am Aug 12, 2015 9:01am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Took a whooping 5 points on it
Nice one, well done.


Quoting StrayDog
{quote} ah SD, you need a break from this shit.
Yup, that's the way I feel.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,117
  • Aug 12, 2015 9:07am Aug 12, 2015 9:07am
Ratio of CL to RB, interesting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 71 KB
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,118
  • Aug 12, 2015 9:14am Aug 12, 2015 9:14am
I know a guy with a large account. He is always bitching about shoulda / woulda / coulda things... "You know, if I just left that position for a few more days"... and so on. It is time for me to post a story again, short Serbian folk tale... very often it reminds me of trading. In fact, it reminds of trading every single day.
I did post it in December last year. Here it goes:

-------------------------------------------
Dark Cave
Once upon a time, a tzar, marching with the army at the end of the world, went into the dark cave, where you can't see anything. ...... When they entered the cave they felt small stones under their feet, and from the darkness a loud voice cried out: "If you take the stones you will regret it, and if you don't take the stones, you will regret it!" Some soldiers thought - "If I am going to regret it, why should I take them?" And some was thinking - "I will risk and take at least one." When they returned from the darkness of the cave, and looked at those stones - it was all gemstones. Then those who didn't took them regret it, and those who did took them, regret for not taking more.

-------------------------------------------

Opps are everywhere, just wait for them, never chase them.
You made $100 instead of $500? Well, nothing lost, and certainly better than a sharp stick in the eye!
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,119
  • Aug 12, 2015 9:39am Aug 12, 2015 9:39am
Hm... big tails -> price rejection on /ES, looking at candles on 240 / 480 / 720m...
I suppose they MUST touch the holy sma from bellow . Yep, touch the daily sma200... 10 points more to go, though.

AAPL is in green again... yeah... much better is to hold spreads far off the limits of the range. If you hit the level & timing right, you can get 50% of the credit back in 2 days.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,120
  • Aug 12, 2015 9:51am Aug 12, 2015 9:51am
Quoting StrayDog
... much better is to hold spreads far off the limits of the range. If you hit the level & timing right, you can get 50% of the credit back in 2 days.
yep. I keep missing my chances, though. Had a good roll-off opp this morning but slept right through it. Getting up at 0600 after 4-5 hrs sleep starts to get old around mid-week. West coast USA time zone sucks for trading....

Had a chance to get out of dumb Aug FSLR puts vertical with 10c net & missed that, too.......fml
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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