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Support and Resistance Method - Pharley

  • #261
  • Edited 3:07am Aug 12, 2015 2:54am | Edited 3:07am
Hi all,

Many thanks for your comments - that run turned out very well and or sure there's luck involved. They're not all like that, but at least we can be in position to take advantage of them when they go.

Dutch - how come only about half of that - number of pips different or risk different or different trades?

Wiz and T12 - I used to do exactly the same! - I was trying to look at multiple pairs when I should have been concentrating on the one I was trading.

There are a few possible trades knocking around including the one relaxtrading (thanks for spotting it mate) quoted above. However, I'm particularly interested in this one below. You'll notice that my SL is below the fib 0% level - I just felt it needed more room to breathe. Oh - a break of the resistance and retrace showing. No idea where things will go at this stage, but:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20150812 eurjpy pic 1 week chart.PNG Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20150812 eurjpy pic 2 daily chart.PNG Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20150812 eurjpy pic 3 4hr chart.PNG Size: 43 KB
  • #262
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:02am Aug 12, 2015 3:02am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Hi pharley Nice work mate A word about your TPs, were they all at 90% of the last swing down on the Daily?
Hi Rover and thanks,

Actually price moved that quickly that I moved the TP up slightly to gain another 25 pips on each trade. Not always recommended, but I was in front of the charts and was able to do that - as I moved them I also moved up all the SL to capture maximum pips.

Cheers
  • #263
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:03am Aug 12, 2015 3:03am
Quoting pharley
Hi all, Ok the run is over after it hit all my TP targets. This morning the euraud went up fast, and with all my trades at BE or locking in profit I bought a further 1 trade until it went up to TP. Results are: Overall pip move during the run from bottom to my TP target was about 480 pips. Pips gained from all trades = 900 % of account gained = 59.9% Total trades = 4 Days length of run (from first trade to exit) = 2.5 days Account Risk level initially 3%, then 6% to 7% So I'm very happy with that result, especially gaining 60% in 2.5 days. Probably...
I find interesting to open the first trade 3% and then increasing on the following new trades as you point out, however it will be also logical to reduce lots % when price is getting near Tprofit. So something like 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 6, 5, 4 ,3%. Therefore, highest risk trade should be at half way to the final target. The closer to the S/R the higher chances to get a rejection. my two cents😊
  • #264
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:11am Aug 12, 2015 3:11am
Quoting relaxtrading
{quote} I find interesting to open the first trade 3% and then increasing on the following new trades as you point out, however it will be also logical to reduce lots % when price is getting near Tprofit. So something like 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 6, 5, 4 ,3%. Therefore, highest risk trade should be at half way to the final target. The closer to the S/R the higher chances to get a rejection. my two cents😊
Good point Relax,

Yes it's always good to think of the risk. It really depends on how you want to manage them. I tend to stop entering trades if I can't get at least 1:2, risk:reward out of it and I try to get all trades SL to BE or profits locked in before entering again. But for sure it's worth thinking about how you want to manage trade risks as the multiple entries unfold. In fact, not worthwhile, but critical !!

Cheers
  • #265
  • Aug 12, 2015 4:18am Aug 12, 2015 4:18am
Pharley, when you get the chance can you just elaborate a little on how you made your decision to start your new
fib where you did on the EURJPY you've just posted.

I understand you're looking for a H4 close beyond a certain level but would like to know why you started it where you did.

Cheers

Sunny
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
  • #266
  • Aug 12, 2015 4:20am Aug 12, 2015 4:20am
Quoting pharley
Hi all, Many thanks for your comments - that run turned out very well and or sure there's luck involved. They're not all like that, but at least we can be in position to take advantage of them when they go. Dutch - how come only about half of that - number of pips different or risk different or different trades? Wiz and T12 - I used to do exactly the same! - I was trying to look at multiple pairs when I should have been concentrating on the one I was trading. There are a few possible trades knocking around including the one relaxtrading (thanks...

Pharley, EURJPY is aproaching an important supply zone so I don'T see much room there. would be safer wait for a deeper retrace? at least something around 137.00 ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #267
  • Aug 12, 2015 4:48am Aug 12, 2015 4:48am
Quoting relaxtrading
{quote} Pharley, EURJPY is aproaching an important supply zone so I don'T see much room there. would be safer wait for a deeper retrace? at least something around 137.00 ? {image} {image}
Hi Relax,

Thanks mate and I see what you're saying - on the daily chart that could look a bit tight, but I'm taking cues from the weekly. See chart below. You can see a weekly trend line coming down and a strong weekly candle up crossing over the resistance. If you look at the weekly candle before that, you can see a pin bar and even earlier can see bounces off the rising trend line. Price broke through the resistance line and stayed above it with a close of a 4hr candle. Then there's been a 4hr pin bar as well.

Also the previous monthly high has been taken out. All this stuff catches my eye as a potential trade northwards. If it keeps going up it will probably stall at that previous supply area, but the strong move up on monthly and weekly candles tells me there may be a continuation upwards. Also on the monthly candles, when price was at that supply level, price didn't come down dramatically the same as for example January this year (monthly candle). We never know what's going to happen, but I'm basing trades off what I see on the large timeframes and price action around key areas. Anyway, risk mgt is key and we can lose at any time so I try to make sure my losses are small compared to gains when they come.

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20150812 eurjpy pic 1a week chart.PNG Size: 45 KB
  • #268
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:16am Aug 12, 2015 5:16am
Pharley, agree with you. If we are considering weekly chart and the price manage to surpass 139-140 area, plenty room until 150.00.
  • #269
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:18am Aug 12, 2015 5:18am
Pharley, have you got a pending order around 138.30?
  • #270
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:20am Aug 12, 2015 5:20am
Quoting relaxtrading
Pharley, agree with you. If we are considering weekly chart and the price manage to surpass 139-140 area, plenty room until 150.00.
Fingers crossed mate - plenty of pips on a run like that!
  • #271
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:26am Aug 12, 2015 5:26am
Quoting relaxtrading
Pharley, have you got a pending order around 138.30?
Hi - no, that's the first entry already taken.
  • #272
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:32am Aug 12, 2015 5:32am
Quoting pharley
Hi all, Many thanks for your comments - that run turned out very well and or sure there's luck involved. They're not all like that, but at least we can be in position to take advantage of them when they go. Dutch - how come only about half of that - number of pips different or risk different or different trades? Wiz and T12 - I used to do exactly the same! - I was trying to look at multiple pairs when I should have been concentrating on the one I was trading. There are a few possible trades knocking around including the one relaxtrading (thanks...
Hi Pharley, that is because I stepped in a little later then you at 1.48531 and exit at 1.52345 and I did not have the 2nd and 3rd trade only the 4th from 1.51205 and exit at 1.52357.

Will follow the next trades!
  • #273
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:33am Aug 12, 2015 5:33am
Big balls on this one Pharley! I 'll be waiting for a deeper retracement.
  • #274
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:38am Aug 12, 2015 5:38am
Quoting Dutchpips
{quote} Hi Pharley, that is because I stepped in a little later then you at 1.48531 and exit at 1.52345 and I did not have the 2nd and 3rd trade only the 4th from 1.51205 and exit at 1.52357. Will follow the next trades!
HI Dutchips,

Ah I see. It's good you got some pips out of that! I think that if you can start to trade like that, it's like anything - practice and you'll get better at it. Soon you'll be running up hundreds of pips!

What I can say about this way of trading - if you find it successful as I do, and you can learn how to do it, you'll always know how to do it. Plus it will work in any market condition - price action tends to operate well in virtually market conditions. If not this method, then find a good solid PA based method and stick with it, practice it, master it - that's the only way to be successful at trading this game we like so much!

Cheers
  • #275
  • Edited 6:44am Aug 12, 2015 5:40am | Edited 6:44am
Quoting relaxtrading
Big balls on this one Pharley! I 'll be waiting for a deeper retracement.
LOL, well I like the look of it and as the first entry, it's at a minimal risk level.

Cheers
  • #276
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:48am Aug 12, 2015 5:48am
USDCHF shows a possible retrace from 0.99. W1 forms a bearish harami (if the price will drop more), D1 a long bearing candle and on H4 price doesn't seem to stop falling anytime soon. Anyone waiting for this move? Any thoughts?
Using the RobotFX EAs for a while https://www.robotfx.org/
  • #277
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:54am Aug 12, 2015 5:54am
Quoting wattaman
USDCHF shows a possible retrace from 0.99. W1 forms a bearish harami (if the price will drop more), D1 a long bearing candle and on H4 price doesn't seem to stop falling anytime soon. Anyone waiting for this move? Any thoughts?
Hi Wattaman,

Just a quick look tells me it was in a rising channel previously - could be heading down to the lower part of the channel perhaps? Draw in some trend lines and look at major S/R areas to see where it might get to.

Cheers
  • #278
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:06am Aug 12, 2015 8:06am
Quoting pharley
{quote} Hi Wattaman, Just a quick look tells me it was in a rising channel previously - could be heading down to the lower part of the channel perhaps? Draw in some trend lines and look at major S/R areas to see where it might get to. Cheers
You're right, there is a channel. And a support around 0.95, somewhere.
So we should probably wait to see if these will stand the price- if it will drop further- and then look for the 50% retrace to enter (+ the other signals, candles, etc)?!
Using the RobotFX EAs for a while https://www.robotfx.org/
  • #279
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:21am Aug 12, 2015 8:21am
Quoting pharley
{quote} HI Dutchips, Ah I see. It's good you got some pips out of that! I think that if you can start to trade like that, it's like anything - practice and you'll get better at it. Soon you'll be running up hundreds of pips! What I can say about this way of trading - if you find it successful as I do, and you can learn how to do it, you'll always know how to do it. Plus it will work in any market condition - price action tends to operate well in virtually market conditions. If not this method, then find a good solid PA based method and stick with...
Hi Pharley,

I find this a very good and solid method once you learn the rules and PA. Indeed it is a matter of practice over and over again and learn from mistakes. I tend to look for trades where the price is extreme to the upside or downside (I use TMA indicator for this) and once I found an extreme then to trade it like your system. Soo we will see..... anything can change......I spend 10 month study the forex and at least I know now where I want to go.......

Glad I see you trade only one pair at the time. My idea is to have maybe only 1 to 2 trades a week.
  • #280
  • Aug 12, 2015 4:26pm Aug 12, 2015 4:26pm
CHFJPY head and shoulders pattern (30 M TF). Room for a short beofre going long? Im in for the short and am keeping an eye out to go long.

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